National Renderers Association October 25, 2012

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1 National Renderers Association October 25, 2012

2 Source: USDA/FAS

3

4

5 Down 500,000 Down 950,000 Down 480,000

6 ,000 Head ,000 Head ,000 Head ,000 Head

7 2013F down 480, F down 100, F up 500,000

8 2013F down 50, F down 20,000

9

10 2012F -960,000 head 2013F -300,000 head

11 U.S. sltr will decline 900,000 in 2013, sltr will not increase until 2015 or 2016

12 Four steers produce as much beef today as five did in 25 years ago Increasing weights have offset 75 percent of the impact of a declining cow herd during the last 20 years

13 U.S. beef production has been mainly for the last 15 years in spite of a 4 million head reduction in cow numbers U.S. border closed due to BSE in Canada

14 Global Beef PRODUCERS Bil Lbs, cwe TOP 4= 60% Source: USDA/FAS

15 Numbers have stabilized and started to grow

16 $129-$130 annual average for 2013, Projected H to L range $117-$143

17

18 U.S. and Global Pork and Poultry Situation

19 000 Head 2,450 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 2,100 2,050 2,000 1,950 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1/8 1/29 2/19 3/12 4/2 Hog Slaughter YTD +2.5%; +2,146 thousand head 4/23 5/14 6/4 6/25 WEEK 7/16 8/6 8/27 9/17 10/8 10/29 11/19 12/10 12/31 5-Yr Avg

20 Record high corn and meal prices stopped any ideas of expansion

21 Weights are up 20 pounds since 1995

22 250 Global Pork Production Averaging 3.6 bil lbs/year growth 200 Bil Lbs, cwe Source: USDA/FAS

23 Global Pork Producers Bil Lbs, cwe TOP 2= 71% F - Source: USDA/FAS

24

25

26

27 Bil Lbs, cwe Global Poultry Production Averaging 5.1 bil lbs/year growth Source: USDA/FAS

28 Bil Lbs, cwe Global Poultry Producers TOP 4= 64% F - Source: USDA/FAS

29 Global Meat PRODUCERS Bil Lbs, cwe TOP 4= 74% F - Poultry Pork Beef Source: USDA/FAS

30 Grains, meat and bone meal, hide & offal, oil and tallow

31 JUNE to JULY Midwest Temperature & Precipitation Since Average TEMP Horrible conditions Great conditions Very few years since 1895 to compare this drought too , , 1936, th lowest precipitation, 5 th highest temperature. One of the worst years in history Total Precipitation

32 This years crop is nearly 4 billion bushels smaller than expected.

33 World stocks at the tightest levels since 1974

34

35 Billion gallons/year Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) Conventional and other nonadvanced Cellulosic Unspecified Advanced Biomass based diesel Annual Ethanol & Biodiesel Consumption Source: EIA, projected Years

36 Gasoline and diesel demand remains soft, ethanol imports are strong as 25 ethanol plants are either idled or running well below capacity. The Ethanol industry has had a very difficult year for operating margins. Losses are currently $.20-$30 per gallon.

37 -Projected at 9.4 billion for 2012/13 -Long-term trend reaches 12.9 billion by 2020

38

39 Smallest stock to use ratio in 50 years

40 Soybean Prices Prices are expected to trade from a low of about $13.50 to highs of about $16.50 during the next eight months.

41 Corn prices will stay strong through mid summer of percent correlation between corn and meat and bone meal

42 Tallow Value $3.50 By-Product Value ($/cwt. - Live) $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Months Yr. Avg. 5-Yr. Avg.

43 Brent crude trades about $20 above West Tx. Crude is a $90-$115 range for most of % correlation between Oil and Tallow

44

45

46 Long Term View

47 We are living in extraordinary times! What does this tell us about agriculture the past 100 years? What about the next 100 years? Source: US Department of Commerce, plus other published estimates

48 UN/FAO Projections Global food production will need to increase 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2050; beef and dairy production will need to DOUBLE by 2050 Farming in 2050 will occupy only 13% more land than is used in 2008

49

50

51 Source: USDA/FAS

52 Source: USDA/FAS Record high grain prices will slow growth the balance of 2012 and 2013.

53 Bil Lbs, cwe Global Meat EXPORTERS F - Nearly 30 percent of all meat traded globally originates from the U.S., more than any other country on the planet. TOP 2= 48% Poultry Pork Beef Source: USDA/FAS

54 Source: FAO, FAOSTAT Needed: Poultry Pork Beef

55 Global Summary Tremendous opportunity in the protein sector during the next decade. Growing incomes will increase the demand for higher quality protein. Population increases will be staggering, 700 million more in ten years. Livestock numbers will grow, productivity growth is a must in all species in order to meet the rapidly growing demand. A competitive market place is essential if producers are to respond to the economic signals of a global marketplace. Utilizing technology that increases productivity and efficiency is essential, at the same time producing a safe and wholesome product for consumers around the globe.

56 Summary The cattle industry will respond to the economic signal to expand if mother nature will cooperate. Numbers and beef production will be at the tightest levels during the next 24 months. The U.S. will continue to be a major protein supplier to the globe. Global expansion will accelerate as incomes rise around the world. The U.S. economy is expected to grow only modestly in 2013 but it will grow faster in 2014 and Get plugged in! The cost of knowing is nothing compared to the cost of NOT knowing!

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