Portrait of the Crisis: Risks and Opportunities for Investors

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Portrait of the Crisis: Risks and Opportunities for Investors"

Transcription

1 Portrait of the Crisis: Risks and Opportunities for Investors Hung Tran IIF, Counsellor and Senior Director of Capital Markets and Emerging Markets Policy Garanti Masters Private Banking Conference Istanbul, Turkey April 17, 29

2 Main Themes 1. Perceived tail risk of economic and financial meltdown has diminished 2. Risk appetite has revived: risk assets have outperformed YTD 3. Most EMs and HG corporates could provide stabilization 4. Weaknesses in key sectors: HY corporates: sharply rising default rates, collapsing recovery rates Households: becoming more leveraged, more pressure to reduce debt Life insurance companies: facing solvency problems Pension funds: seriously underfunded Banks: funding situation and pre-tax/pre-provision earnings improved, but troubled assets/capital adequacy remain serious challenges 5. Key risks: threats to senior bank debt could trigger another spike in risk aversion 2

3 Outperformance of Risk Assets Year-to-date Fixed Income 1-year U.S. Treasury EM local bonds U.S. HG corporates EM HG corporates EM sovereign bonds EM HY corporates U.S. HY corporates -13,1-1,9 3,1 7, 7,1 11,3 16,5 Equities* Mature markets Emerging markets -6,3 percent 12,2 * Returns in US$ terms. 3

4 Equity Market Volatility* percent Oca.7 Haz.7 Kas.7 Nis.8 Eyl.8 Şub.9 * VIX index of implied volatility of S&P 5 index options. 4

5 index, end-27=1 Mature and Emerging Market Equities* Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Apr 9 * MSCI indices (US$ returns). 5

6 Emerging Market Sovereign and Corporate Bonds spread over U.S. Treasuries, basis points 1, 8 EMBIG (sovereigns) CEMBI Broad (corporates) Oca-7 Haz-7 Kas-7 Nis-8 Eyl-8 Şub-9 6

7 Emerging Market Currency Index index, Jan 2, 27= Oca.7 Haz.7 Kas.7 Nis.8 Eyl.8 Şub.9 7

8 Central & Eastern Europe Currency Peg Countries Current Account Balances percent of GDP Baltics Bulgaria CE-3 average e 29f e = estimate; f = forecast. * IIF estimates and forecasts (where available); otherwise IMF or European Commission estimates and forecasts. 8

9 Selected Central & Eastern Europe Currencies percent change since end May 28* Czech Republic Hungary -3-4 Poland Romania Haz.8 Ağu.8 Eki.8 Ara.8 Şub.9 Nis.9 * Change vis-à-vis euro. 9

10 Global Corporate Bond Issuance US$ billions US$ billions 1. High grade (left axis) High yield (right axis) Q1 27Q1 28Q1 29Q1 Source: Thomson Financial; IIF calculations. 1

11 US$ billions U.S. Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Cash Holdings* percent 1.5 Current dollar value (left axis) 6 Relative to total assets (right axis) * Cash defined as foreign deposits, checkable deposits and currency, time and savings deposits, and money market fund shares. Tangible assets at market value or replacement cost

12 U.S. Household Debt percent of net worth

13 U.S. Household Debt percent of GDP

14 High-yield Bond Annual Recovery Rates percent 7 6 Average,

15 Global High-yield Bond Default Rates and Spreads percent Default rate* (left axis) High-yield spread (right axis) basis points * 12-month issue-weighted, history and forecast (dashed line). 15

16 Solvency Ratios of U.S. Insurance Companies percent Property/casualty (left axis) 1 Monoline (left axis) Life (right axis) percent

17 Global Pension Assets US$ trillions OECD Non-OECD Estimate e e = estimate. 17

18 Term Interbank and Expected Overnight Interest Rates* basis points Dec 12 - coordinated central bank liquidity measures announced Sep 15 - Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy Mar 17 - Fed approves financing for the purchase of Bear Stearns U.S. U.K. Eurozone Haz.7 Eki.7 Şub.8 Haz.8 Eki.8 Şub.9 * Spread between 3-month Libor/euribor and 3-month overnight index swaps (OIS). 18

19 Fed s Central Bank U.S. Dollar Liquidity Swap Lines US$ billions Ara.7 Mar.8 Haz.8 Eyl.8 Ara.8 Mar.9 19

20 Losses and Capital Raised by Financial Institutions US$ billions Asia 35,7 Losses* US$ billions Asia 69,5 Capital Raised** Europe 389,3 Americas 869,8 Europe 396,4 Americas 646,2 Total: $1,295 bn Total: $1,112 bn * Since beginning of 27; includes writedowns and credit losses. ** Since July 27. 2

21 US$ trillions U.S. and European Debt Outstanding and Estimated Losses Total potential mark-to-market or loan losses Balance of outstandings U.S. securitized assets and corporate bonds* U.S. financial sector loans** Eurozone corporate debt European securitized assets Exposure of BIS reporting banks to developing countries * Includes ABS, ABS CDOs, prime MBS, CMBS, corporate debt and CLOs. ** Includes subprime and prime mortgages, and consumer, corporate and leveraged loans. 21

22 basis points U.S. Fixed-rate Credit Card ABS Spreads* 2.5 AAA A BBB Haz.7 Eki.7 Şub.8 Haz.8 Eki.8 Şub.9 * 5-year bonds; spread to swaps. 22

23 basis points U.S. AAA-rated Student Loan ABS Spreads* 4 3 year 5 year 1 year Haz.7 Eki.7 Şub.8 Haz.8 Eki.8 Şub.9 * Spread to Libor. 23

24 U.S. AAA-rated Fixed-rate Auto ABS Spreads* basis points Prime Near-prime 4 2 Haz.7 Eki.7 Şub.8 Haz.8 Eki.8 Şub.9 * 3-year bonds; spread to swaps. 24

25 U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies* percent of loans outstanding 4 All Prime 3 Alt-A Subprime * Includes only non-agency mortgages; 3+ days delinquent, bank owned, or in foreclosure. 25

26 percentage of par Cost of Protection Against Default on U.S. Home Equity ABS* 1 8 AAA AA A Haz.7 Eki.7 Şub.8 Haz.8 Eki.8 Şub.9 * ABX.HE 27-1 indices. 26

27 Commercial Real Estate Lending and Core Capital at U.S. Banks and Thrifts US$ trillions 1,6 Commercial real estate loans Tier 1 capital 1,2,8,4,

28 Cost of Protection Against Default on U.S. CMBS* basis points AAA AA BBB Haz.7 Kas.7 Nis.8 Eyl.8 Şub.9 * CMBX.NA.3 index spreads. 28

29 percent Capital Ratios of U.S. Commercial Banks* Tier 1 Capital Ratio percent 12 8, Common Equity to Assets ,5 7, 6,5 6, 5, * Asset-weighted average for sample of 12 U.S. commercial banks. 29

30 percent Capital Ratios of U.K. and European Banks* Tier 1 Capital Ratio percent 1, 4,5 Common Equity to Assets 9,5 9, 8,5 8, 7, , 3,5 3, 2,5 2, * Asset-weighted average for sample of 12 U.K. and European commercial banks. 3

31 Cost of Protection Against Default on Large Banks* basis points Spread** (right axis) Subordinated debt (left axis) Senior debt (left axis) basis points Oca.7 Haz.7 Kas.7 Nis.8 Eyl.8 Şub.9 * Asset-weighted average of 5-year CDS spreads for a selection of 14 U.S., U.K., European and Japanese banks. ** Subordinated debt less senior debt. 31

32 Portrait of the Crisis: Risks and Opportunities for Investors Hung Tran IIF, Counsellor and Senior Director of Capital Markets and Emerging Markets Policy Garanti Masters Private Banking Conference Istanbul, Turkey April 17, 29

Commercial paper collateralized by a pool of loans, leases, receivables, or structured credit products. Asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP)

Commercial paper collateralized by a pool of loans, leases, receivables, or structured credit products. Asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) GLOSSARY Asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) Asset-backed security (ABS) Asset-backed securities index (ABX) Basel II Call (put) option Carry trade Collateralized debt obligation (CDO) Collateralized

More information

Recent Developments in Local Currency Bond Markets (LCBMs) 1. October 2013

Recent Developments in Local Currency Bond Markets (LCBMs) 1. October 2013 Recent Developments in Local Currency Bond Markets (LCBMs) 1 October 2013 Given the importance of local currency bond markets (LCBMs), including in the context of the work now underway on financing for

More information

American International Group, Inc. Second Quarter 2008 Results Conference Call Presentation August 7, 2008

American International Group, Inc. Second Quarter 2008 Results Conference Call Presentation August 7, 2008 1 AIG F American International Group, Inc. Second Quarter 2008 Results Conference Call Presentation August 7, 2008 2 Cautionary Statement Regarding Projections and Other Information About Future Events

More information

Building a better bond portfolio

Building a better bond portfolio Global diversification Risk reduction, portfolio completion, and opportunity for return Catherine LeGraw, Director BlackRock Multi Asset Client Solutions (BMACS) April 7, 2011 Outline 1 2 3 Trends in asset

More information

Natalia Orlova Chief Economist Alfa-Bank. Russian Banks After the Crisis

Natalia Orlova Chief Economist Alfa-Bank. Russian Banks After the Crisis Natalia Orlova Chief Economist Alfa-Bank Russian Banks After the Crisis Russia 27: Unaffected by subprime turmoil Assets breakdown US vs. Russia, % of assets Others, 27% US Securities, 2% Others, 3% Russia

More information

Box 1.1. Evolution of the sovereign bond yield spreads in the euro area in the context of the financial crisis

Box 1.1. Evolution of the sovereign bond yield spreads in the euro area in the context of the financial crisis International Environment Chapter 1 Box 1.1. Evolution of the sovereign bond yield spreads in the euro area in the context of the financial crisis The financial crisis, initiated in the summer of 2 on

More information

Strategic and Operational Overview May 11, 2016

Strategic and Operational Overview May 11, 2016 Strategic and Operational Overview May 11, 2016 Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains several forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are those that use words such as believe,

More information

Residential Mortgage Presentation (Financial Figures are as of June 30, 2007)

Residential Mortgage Presentation (Financial Figures are as of June 30, 2007) Residential Mortgage Presentation (Financial Figures are as of June 30, 2007) August 9, 2007 (Revised as to slide 29) It should be noted that this presentation and the remarks made by AIG representatives

More information

Guggenheim Investments. European High-Yield and Bank Loan Market Overview

Guggenheim Investments. European High-Yield and Bank Loan Market Overview Guggenheim Investments European High-Yield and Bank Loan Market Overview August 2015 European High-Yield & Bank Loan Market Overview Please see disclosures and legal notice at end of document. 2 August

More information

The Case for Senior Loans

The Case for Senior Loans The Case for 1.877.622.5552 www.firsttrust.ca : A Potential Opportunity for Investors With interest rates at historically low levels, these are challenging times to invest for income. At the same time,

More information

Money market portfolio

Money market portfolio 1 Money market portfolio April 11 Management of Norges Bank s money market portfolio Report for the fourth quarter 1 Contents 1 Key figures Market value and return 3 3 Market risk and management guidelines

More information

The financial turbulence and Norway what lessons can be drawn? Governor Øystein Olsen Eiendomsdagene Norefjell 19 January 2012

The financial turbulence and Norway what lessons can be drawn? Governor Øystein Olsen Eiendomsdagene Norefjell 19 January 2012 The financial turbulence and Norway what lessons can be drawn? Governor Øystein Olsen Eiendomsdagene Norefjell 19 January 1 The run-up to the financial crisis 1. Sharp rise in debt and asset prices low

More information

Introductory remarks by Jean-Pierre Danthine

Introductory remarks by Jean-Pierre Danthine abcdefg News conference Berne, 15 December 2011 Introductory remarks by Jean-Pierre Danthine I would like to address three main issues today. These are the acute market volatility experienced this summer,

More information

An index of credit default swaps referencing 20 bonds collateralized by subprime mortgages.

An index of credit default swaps referencing 20 bonds collateralized by subprime mortgages. ABX Asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) Asset-backed security (ABS) Assets under management (AUM) Call (put) option Capital-to-risk-weighted assets ratio Carry trade Cash securitization CAT (catastrophe)

More information

The Causes of the Financial Crisis and its Consequences

The Causes of the Financial Crisis and its Consequences The Causes of the Financial Crisis and its Consequences Peter J. Wallison June 18, 2010 Presentation to the IPAA, Colorado Springs What Happened Timeline of the Financial Crisis Timeline of Financial

More information

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK DANMARKS NATIONALBANK THE DANISH EXPERIENCE WITH NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES Niels Lynggård Hansen, Brookings, 6th June 216 Key lessons from experience with negative interest rates Negative interest rates

More information

Spanish Banking Sector.

Spanish Banking Sector. Spanish Banking Sector: Progress Report 22/2/211 Spanish Banking Sector. September 211 London, 22nd February 211 Tokyo, xx February 211 London Hong Kong, 2 th September xx February 211 Singapore, xx February

More information

Bond Markets in Emerging Asia: Progress, Challenges, and ADB Work Plan to Support Bond Market Development. Asian Development Bank

Bond Markets in Emerging Asia: Progress, Challenges, and ADB Work Plan to Support Bond Market Development. Asian Development Bank Bond Markets in Emerging Asia: Progress, Challenges, and ADB Work Plan to Support Bond Market Development Asian Development Bank November 2009 A. Noy Siackhachanh Advisor Office of Regional Economic Integration

More information

Regulation of Foreign Currency Mortgage Loans. - the case of transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe

Regulation of Foreign Currency Mortgage Loans. - the case of transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe Regulation of Foreign Currency Mortgage Loans - the case of transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe 4 th World Bank conference on Housing Finance in Emerging Markets Washington, D.C., May 26-27,

More information

The Central Bank from the Viewpoint of Law and Economics

The Central Bank from the Viewpoint of Law and Economics The Central Bank from the Viewpoint of Law and Economics Handout for Special Lecture, Financial Law at the Faculty of Law, the University of Tokyo Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan October

More information

HOUSING FINANCE IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES

HOUSING FINANCE IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES HOUSING FINANCE IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES OECD Workshop Warsaw, Poland December 5-6, 5 2002 Loïc Chiquier The World Bank 1 Challenge in Transition Economies! Key for growth, poverty, wealth (75 wealth),

More information

2. Banking system profitability and risks in 2009

2. Banking system profitability and risks in 2009 Profitability Population and risks 2. Banking system profitability and risks in 2009 2.1 Strong earnings growth After being impacted by the financial crisis in 2008, the seven largest (2) French institutions

More information

Commercial paper collateralized by a pool of loans, leases, receivables, or structured credit products.

Commercial paper collateralized by a pool of loans, leases, receivables, or structured credit products. Asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) Asset-backed security (ABS) Asset-backed securities index (ABX) Auction rate security Basel II Call (put) option Carry trade Commercial paper collateralized by a pool

More information

A Heavenly Match - The Danish mortgage model in an international perspective. Jesper Berg Managing director, Nykredit Bank Iceland, July 1, 2014

A Heavenly Match - The Danish mortgage model in an international perspective. Jesper Berg Managing director, Nykredit Bank Iceland, July 1, 2014 A Heavenly Match - The Danish mortgage model in an international perspective Jesper Berg Managing director, Nykredit Bank Iceland, July 1, 2014 Game Plan The Danish Mortgage model 1...makes sense in a

More information

Financial Globalization: Implications for Data Needs

Financial Globalization: Implications for Data Needs 20 th Meeting for the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics, October 29, 2007 (BOPCOM 07/07) Financial Globalization: Implications for Data Needs Ceyla Pazarbasioglu Chief, Capital Markets and

More information

GE Capital. Liquidity and Funding Overview. Global issuer of long and short term debt. 2012 third quarter

GE Capital. Liquidity and Funding Overview. Global issuer of long and short term debt. 2012 third quarter Liquidity and Funding Overview Global issuer of long and short term debt This document contains forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to future, not past, events. In this context, forward-looking

More information

The Vienna Initiative

The Vienna Initiative The Vienna Initiative KNF Conference on Household Lending Warsaw, October 20, 2010 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe The problem Parent Banks severely affected

More information

Global Financials Update April 13, 2012

Global Financials Update April 13, 2012 Global Financials Update April 13, 2012 Global Market Update After posting a fairly strong and consistent rally over much of the last six months, the global equity markets have changed course over the

More information

Developing the Domestic Debt Market The South African Experience

Developing the Domestic Debt Market The South African Experience Commonwealth Secretariat Debt Management Forum Developing the Domestic Debt Market The South African Experience June 2008 Challenges for South African Debt Market 2 Challenges. Domestic debt management

More information

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment Chartbook Contact: Sebastian Becker +49 69 91-3664 Global Risk Analysis The unwinding of Yen carry trades Some empirical evidence 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 October 31, 28 Many years before the sub-prime crisis hit

More information

The experience of Peru with financial dedollariza6on. Zenón Quispe Central Reserve Bank of Peru

The experience of Peru with financial dedollariza6on. Zenón Quispe Central Reserve Bank of Peru The experience of Peru with financial dedollariza6on Zenón Quispe Central Reserve Bank of Peru 01 Content 1. Dollarization: the main vulnerability of the Peruvian economy 2. Why are we dollarized? 3. Rebuilding

More information

Fixed Income Market Commentary

Fixed Income Market Commentary First Principles Capital Management August 2012 Liquid rates markets Fixed Income Market Commentary Continued optimism around ECB President Mario Draghi s pledge to do whatever it takes to save the euro

More information

Lecture 16: Financial Crisis

Lecture 16: Financial Crisis Lecture 16: Financial Crisis What is a Financial Crisis? A financial crisis occurs when there is a particularly large disruption to information flows in financial markets, with the result that financial

More information

INCOME IN ALL MARKETS COLUMBIA STRATEGIC INCOME FUND Class A COSIX Class C CLSCX Class R CSNRX Class R4 CMNRX Class R5 CTIVX Class Z LSIZX

INCOME IN ALL MARKETS COLUMBIA STRATEGIC INCOME FUND Class A COSIX Class C CLSCX Class R CSNRX Class R4 CMNRX Class R5 CTIVX Class Z LSIZX INCOME IN ALL MARKETS COLUMBIA STRATEGIC INCOME FUND Class A COSIX Class C CLSCX Class R CSNRX Class R4 CMNRX Class R5 CTIVX Class Z LSIZX NAVIGATING A CHANGING INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT Rise to the challenge

More information

The case for high yield

The case for high yield The case for high yield Jennifer Ponce de Leon, Vice President, Senior Sector Leader Wendy Price, Director, Institutional Product Management We believe high yield is a compelling relative investment opportunity

More information

Historical Context. Prior to Great Depression mortgages were short term 5 years. o Households rolled them over

Historical Context. Prior to Great Depression mortgages were short term 5 years. o Households rolled them over Historical Context Prior to Great Depression mortgages were short term 5 years o Households rolled them over o Worked well if financial markets were calm, Leads to rollover crisis and mass evictions if

More information

Asset-Backed Securities: Time to Reevaluate Their Place in Corporate Accounts?

Asset-Backed Securities: Time to Reevaluate Their Place in Corporate Accounts? Asset-Backed Securities: Time to Reevaluate Their Place in Corporate Accounts? Abstract AAA-rated fixed rate credit card ABS may be viable investments for corporate treasurers. Transparent asset collateral,

More information

Portfolio Management After the Crisis: No Risk - More Fun? Gamma Foundation, Lugano, November 2009

Portfolio Management After the Crisis: No Risk - More Fun? Gamma Foundation, Lugano, November 2009 Portfolio Management After the Crisis: No Risk - More Fun? Gamma Foundation, Lugano, November 2009 Table of Contents I. The International Financial Crisis Caused by more than just greed II. Where do we

More information

Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds

Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds Peter R. Duffy, CFA, Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager Navy Yard Corporate Center, Three Crescent Drive, Suite 400, Philadelphia, PA 19112 www.penncapital.com 1 What

More information

Turkey Domestic Corporate Bond Markets

Turkey Domestic Corporate Bond Markets Turkey Domestic Corporate Bond Markets April 2011 Corporate Bond Market Development in Turkey Priorities and Changes Istanbul, Turkey G. Meltem Kökden T.İş Bankası A.Ş 1 Domestic Corporate Bond Markets

More information

Monetary Policy in the Post Crisis Period: The Turkish Perspective

Monetary Policy in the Post Crisis Period: The Turkish Perspective Monetary Policy in the Post Crisis Period: The Turkish Perspective Hakan Kara Economic Research Forum Conference İstanbul April 19, 2013 Outline 1. Motivation of the New Policy Framework 2. New Instruments

More information

Macroeconomic Management With Open Capital Accounts

Macroeconomic Management With Open Capital Accounts Macroeconomic Management With Open Capital Accounts György Szapáry Central Bank of Hungary IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute Seminar, Crisis Prevention in Emerging kets, Singapore, y 1-11, Introduction

More information

Capital preservation strategy update

Capital preservation strategy update Client Education Summit 2012 Capital preservation strategy update Head of Institutional Fixed Income Investments, Americas October 9, 2012 Topics for discussion 1 Capital preservation strategies 2 3 4

More information

Economic Outlook and Recent Developments in Latin America and Chile

Economic Outlook and Recent Developments in Latin America and Chile Economic Outlook and Recent Developments in Latin America and Chile Rodrigo Vergara Governor Central Bank of Chile, October 1 Introduction Latin America has made great advances in the s. The commodity

More information

Monetary Policy After Debt Crises Implications for the Euro-area and Japan.

Monetary Policy After Debt Crises Implications for the Euro-area and Japan. Monetary Policy After Debt Crises Implications for the Euro-area and Japan. Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin, 28 July 2016 John Greenwood Chief Economist, Invesco Ltd 1 Debt/GDP

More information

October 21, 2015 MEDIA & INVESTOR CONTACT Heather Worley, 214.932.6646 heather.worley@texascapitalbank.com

October 21, 2015 MEDIA & INVESTOR CONTACT Heather Worley, 214.932.6646 heather.worley@texascapitalbank.com October 21, 2015 MEDIA & INVESTOR CONTACT Heather Worley, 214.932.6646 heather.worley@texascapitalbank.com TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES, INC. ANNOUNCES OPERATING RESULTS FOR Q3 2015 DALLAS - October 21, 2015

More information

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK EXPERIENCE OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES IN DENMARK. Niels Lynggård Hansen, Director, Danmarks Nationalbank

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK EXPERIENCE OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES IN DENMARK. Niels Lynggård Hansen, Director, Danmarks Nationalbank DANMARKS NATIONALBANK EXPERIENCE OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES IN DENMARK Niels Lynggård Hansen, Director, Danmarks Nationalbank 2 GDP growth Per cent, year-on-year 3 2 1 0-1 2011 2012 2013 20 2015 2016 2017

More information

An Alternative Way to Diversify an Income Strategy

An Alternative Way to Diversify an Income Strategy Senior Secured Loans An Alternative Way to Diversify an Income Strategy Alternative Thinking Series There is no shortage of uncertainty and risk facing today s investor. From high unemployment and depressed

More information

Single-name Credit Derivatives

Single-name Credit Derivatives Single-name Credit Derivatives Viral V. Acharya and Stephen M Schaefer NYU-Stern and London Business School (LBS), and LBS Credit Risk Elective Spring 2009 Recent stress in credit default swaps 5-year

More information

No. 1 BANK OF RUSSIA FOREIGN EXCHANGE ASSET MANAGEMENT REPORT. Moscow

No. 1 BANK OF RUSSIA FOREIGN EXCHANGE ASSET MANAGEMENT REPORT. Moscow No. 1 2015 FOREIGN EXCHANGE ASSET MANAGEMENT REPORT Moscow Bank of Russia Foreign Exchange Asset Management Report No. 1 (33) 2015 Reference to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is mandatory in

More information

Monetary Policy in Denmark. Niels Lynggaard Hansen Danmarks Nationalbank May 2010

Monetary Policy in Denmark. Niels Lynggaard Hansen Danmarks Nationalbank May 2010 Monetary Policy in Denmark Niels Lynggaard Hansen Danmarks Nationalbank May 2010 Agenda Background to Denmark s fixedexchange-rate policy Monetary policy in practice The financial crisis and unconventional

More information

Opportunities in Complex Credit

Opportunities in Complex Credit Opportunities in Complex Credit Lindsay Holtz, CFA Managing Director Diversified Global Asset Management Corporation Toronto A Traditional liquid credit spreads seem to be priced fairly at best, but with

More information

Mark Weiss, President

Mark Weiss, President Mark Weiss, President Safe Harbor Certain items in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements

More information

Understanding Bank Loans: Opportunities for Diversification and Risk Reduction

Understanding Bank Loans: Opportunities for Diversification and Risk Reduction Understanding Bank Loans: Opportunities for Diversification and Risk Reduction December 28 By: Niklas Nordenfelt, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager, Co-Manager of Sutter High Yield Fixed Income Paolo L. Villasenor

More information

Chapter 1 Global economy facing challenges: current status and issues. Section 1 Global economy going through financial crisis toward economic crisis

Chapter 1 Global economy facing challenges: current status and issues. Section 1 Global economy going through financial crisis toward economic crisis Chapter 1 Global economy facing challenges: current status and issues The subprime mortgage problem in the United States, whose strong consumption previously led the global economic growth, has developed

More information

CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1

CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 November 4, 214 Key Developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit In 214:Q2, BIS reporting banks reduced their external positions to CESEE countries

More information

BERYL Credit Pulse on High Yield Corporates

BERYL Credit Pulse on High Yield Corporates BERYL Credit Pulse on High Yield Corporates This paper will summarize Beryl Consulting 2010 outlook and hedge fund portfolio construction for the high yield corporate sector in light of the events of the

More information

Securing flexible financing

Securing flexible financing Securing flexible financing Markus Coenen Head of Group Finance, RWE AG RWE Credit Day London, 9 October 2012 2012 in financial terms so far H1 2012 operating performance: EBITDA +9%, operating result

More information

The U.S. Leveraged Loan Market Today s drivers, tomorrow s challenges. Meredith Coffey, LSTA 212-880-3019 mcoffey@lsta.org

The U.S. Leveraged Loan Market Today s drivers, tomorrow s challenges. Meredith Coffey, LSTA 212-880-3019 mcoffey@lsta.org The U.S. Leveraged Loan Market Today s drivers, tomorrow s challenges Meredith Coffey, LSTA 212-88-319 mcoffey@lsta.org Presentation Overview Today s Leveraged Loan Market Tomorrow s Regulatory Environment

More information

Introduction To Fixed Income Derivatives

Introduction To Fixed Income Derivatives Introduction To Fixed Income Derivatives Derivative instruments offer numerous benefits to investment managers and the clients they serve. The goal of this paper is to give a high level overview of derivatives

More information

CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1

CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 February 1, 1 BIS reporting banks continued to scale back their funding to Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe () in Q3 13, at broadly the same pace as in Q 13,

More information

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking and Insurance CEO Conference. London, 29 September 2009

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking and Insurance CEO Conference. London, 29 September 2009 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking and Insurance CEO Conference London, 29 September 2009 Good morning. I d like to thank Bank of America Merrill Lynch for letting us speak this morning. Before I talk

More information

Safe Assets 1 Markus Brunnermeier & Valentin Haddad

Safe Assets 1 Markus Brunnermeier & Valentin Haddad 1 2 3 Safe Assets 1 Markus Brunnermeier & Valentin Haddad October, 17 th 2014 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1. Examples of Safe Assets Gold Reserves, federal funds Government paper (without liquidity

More information

Closed-End Fund Discounts: Is the Trend Reversing?

Closed-End Fund Discounts: Is the Trend Reversing? JANUARY 216 www.calamos.com/cef ROBERT F. BUSH, JR. SVP, DIRECTOR OF CLOSED-END FUND PRODUCTS Closed-End Fund Discounts: Is the Trend Reversing?» The closed-end fund space continues to suffer wide discounts

More information

A leveraged. The Case for Leveraged Loans. Introduction - What is a Leveraged Loan?

A leveraged. The Case for Leveraged Loans. Introduction - What is a Leveraged Loan? PENN Capital Management The Navy Yard Corporate Center 3 Crescent Drive, Suite 400 Philadelphia, PA 19112 Phone: 215-302-1501 www.penncapital.com For more information: Christian Noyes, Senior Managing

More information

Quantitative Easing: An Interim Report

Quantitative Easing: An Interim Report 1 Quantitative Easing: An Interim Report Speech given by Charles Bean, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy, Bank of England At the London Society of Chartered Accountants Annual Lunch, London 13 October

More information

Westpac Investor Update February 2008

Westpac Investor Update February 2008 Westpac Investor Update February 2008 In September 2007, Westpac published a market update highlighting the difficult conditions in global capital markets and how Westpac was positioned and responding.

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics June 2 (April 2 data) Highlights During April, credit unions picked up 3, new memberships, credit union loan balances grew at an annualized 1.7% pace,

More information

Jornadas Economicas del Banco de Guatemala. Managing Market Risk. Max Silberberg

Jornadas Economicas del Banco de Guatemala. Managing Market Risk. Max Silberberg Managing Market Risk Max Silberberg Defining Market Risk Market risk is exposure to an adverse change in value of financial instrument caused by movements in market variables. Market risk exposures are

More information

How Property/Casualty Insurance Companies Invest Premium Dollars

How Property/Casualty Insurance Companies Invest Premium Dollars How Property/Casualty Insurance Companies Invest Premium Dollars OVERVIEW Every day, property/casualty insurers enable our economy to function by helping individuals and businesses address the various

More information

Investor Presentation: Pricing of MRU s Private Student Loan. July 7, 2008 NASDAQ: UNCL

Investor Presentation: Pricing of MRU s Private Student Loan. July 7, 2008 NASDAQ: UNCL Investor Presentation: Pricing of MRU s Private Student Loan Securitization July 7, 2008 NASDAQ: UNCL Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement 1 Except for historical information contained herein, this presentation

More information

United States House of Representatives. Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises

United States House of Representatives. Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises United States House of Representatives Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises Credit Default Swaps on Government Debt: Potential Implications of the Greek Debt

More information

STANTON ASSET MANAGEMENT

STANTON ASSET MANAGEMENT STANTON ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATE FIXED INCOME MARKET MONITOR First Quarter 215 Canadian Corporate Bonds First Quarter 215 Data as of March 31, 215 Market Data (Avg.) Size Performance Spread DuraIon Yield

More information

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research Fixed Income 2015 Update Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research 1 Fed: Slow and Low 2015 Fixed Income Outlook 2 Yield Curve Flattening 3

More information

The Growing Importance of Fixed Income Analytics

The Growing Importance of Fixed Income Analytics Trusted by the Market. Driven by You. www.yieldbook.com The Growing Importance of Fixed Income Analytics Susan Y. Lin Managing Director Regional Head, Asia Pacific The Yield Book and Citi Fixed Income

More information

Government backed insurance of extreme systemic risk

Government backed insurance of extreme systemic risk Government backed insurance of extreme systemic risk Kathleen McElvogue (Independent Financial Consultant) and Alistair Milne (Cass Business School) 15 th December, 2008 This is a global credit crisis,

More information

Treasury Presentation to TBAC

Treasury Presentation to TBAC Treasury Presentation to TBAC Office of Debt Management Fiscal Year 2015 Q1 Report Table of Contents I. Fiscal II. A. Quarterly Tax Receipts p. 4 B. Monthly Receipt Levels p. 5 C. Eleven Largest Outlays

More information

John Gieve: The return of the credit cycle old lessons in new markets

John Gieve: The return of the credit cycle old lessons in new markets John Gieve: The return of the credit cycle old lessons in new markets Speech by Sir John Gieve, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, at the Euromoney Bond Investors Congress, London, 27 February 28.

More information

The International Certificate in Banking Risk and Regulation (ICBRR)

The International Certificate in Banking Risk and Regulation (ICBRR) The International Certificate in Banking Risk and Regulation (ICBRR) The ICBRR fosters financial risk awareness through thought leadership. To develop best practices in financial Risk Management, the authors

More information

WORLD BANK. SME Financing and the SME ABS Market in Europe

WORLD BANK. SME Financing and the SME ABS Market in Europe WORLD BANK SME Financing and the SME ABS Market in Europe Michel Noel Lead Financial Sector Specialist Finance and Private Sector Development, Europe & Central Asia AGENDA SME Financing in Europe Asset-Backed

More information

DEBT MARKETS SPRING 2014 10.45 TO 12.15 331 URIS HALL (MONDAYS AND WEDNESDAYS)

DEBT MARKETS SPRING 2014 10.45 TO 12.15 331 URIS HALL (MONDAYS AND WEDNESDAYS) DEBT MARKETS SPRING 2014 10.45 TO 12.15 331 URIS HALL (MONDAYS AND WEDNESDAYS) INSTRUCTOR: Suresh Sundaresan Office Location: 401 Uris Hall Office Phone: 212-854- 4423 Fax: 212-316- 9180 E- mail: ms122@columbia.edu

More information

THE POTENTIAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECT OF DEBT CEILING BRINKMANSHIP

THE POTENTIAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECT OF DEBT CEILING BRINKMANSHIP OCTOBER 2013 THE POTENTIAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECT OF DEBT CEILING BRINKMANSHIP Introduction The United States has never defaulted on its obligations, and the U. S. dollar and Treasury securities are at the

More information

Hot Topics in Financial Markets Lecture 1: The Libor Scandal

Hot Topics in Financial Markets Lecture 1: The Libor Scandal Hot Topics in Financial Markets Lecture 1: The Libor Scandal Spot and Forward Interest Rates Libor Libor-Dependent Financial Instruments The Scandal 2 Spot Interest Rates Bond Market The yield on a bond

More information

The State of New York Deferred Compensation Board Stable Income Fund INVESTMENT POLICIES AND GUIDELINES. December 13, 2013.

The State of New York Deferred Compensation Board Stable Income Fund INVESTMENT POLICIES AND GUIDELINES. December 13, 2013. The State of New York Deferred Compensation Board Stable Income Fund INVESTMENT POLICIES AND GUIDELINES December 13, 2013 Table of Contents I. Investment Objectives II. Investment Strategy A. Permitted

More information

Greek banks and corporate funding costs

Greek banks and corporate funding costs NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE Greek banks and corporate funding costs January 214 Paul Mylonas CRO & Chief Economist National Bank of Greece NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT Economic Analysis Department Roadmap

More information

HIGH YIELD & RISING RATES

HIGH YIELD & RISING RATES LM Market Insight: HIGH YIELD & RISING RATES MAY 2015 THIS MATERIAL IS ONLY FOR DISTRIBUTION IN THOSE COUNTRIES AND TO THOSE RECIPIENTS LISTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION ON THE FINAL PAGE.

More information

Development of mortgage lending in Russia

Development of mortgage lending in Russia Development of mortgage lending in Russia Development of Russian mortgage market: 2007-2012 Mortgage origination, bln. (RUB/$) Mortgage share of residential market turnover 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400

More information

Broker-Dealer Finance and Financial Stability

Broker-Dealer Finance and Financial Stability EMBARGOED UNTIL WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 13, 2014 AT 9:20 A.M. EASTERN TIME OR UPON DELIVERY Broker-Dealer Finance and Financial Stability Eric S. Rosengren President & CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Boston August

More information

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance 1 Outline Turkey: Short Term Outlook Managing a Soft Landing Fallout from the Euro Crisis Turkey & MENA REBALANCING Growing ON

More information

Chart I.1. Difference between Primary Surplus (PS) and Bond Yield Spreads in Selected EU 1 Countries

Chart I.1. Difference between Primary Surplus (PS) and Bond Yield Spreads in Selected EU 1 Countries LIST OF CHARTS Chart I.1. Difference between Primary Surplus (PS) and Bond Yield Spreads in Selected EU 1 Countries Chart I.2. Gross Debt Stock and Budget Deficits of Selected Countries as of 2010 1 Chart

More information

GE Capital. Second quarter 2012 supplement

GE Capital. Second quarter 2012 supplement GE Capital Second quarter supplement Results are unaudited. This document contains forward-looking statements that is, statements related to future, not past, events. In this context, forward-looking statements

More information

DNB The Norwegian bank

DNB The Norwegian bank DNB The Norwegian bank New York, Deutsche Bank 22 May 2012 CFO Bjørn Erik Næss Agenda DNB - Q1 results DNB drivers for successful banking 2 Agenda Q1 results DNB drivers for successful banking 3 Profit

More information

Municipal Bond Market Weekly

Municipal Bond Market Weekly Strategy Municipal Bond Market Weekly Bottom Line: The U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on a hawkishly-perceived interpretation of the FOMC meeting statement. Municipal yields hung on and the 10-yr AAA

More information

Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt and Foreign Investors

Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt and Foreign Investors Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt and Foreign Investors Recent Developments Daniela Klingebiel Pension & Endowments Department December 3, 2014 Explosive growth of EM local currency debt Total EM debt

More information

Down, but not out The Role of Fixed Income in a Low Yield Environment

Down, but not out The Role of Fixed Income in a Low Yield Environment Down, but not out The Role of Fixed Income in a Low Yield Environment Charles Thomas, CFA Investment Analyst Vanguard Asset Management The key questions we will answer today... What does the low yield

More information

State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background

State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background Public Debt Department State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background September 2014 THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION Monthly issuance calendar... 2 MoF comment... 8 Rating agencies

More information

Why Consider Bank Loan Investing?

Why Consider Bank Loan Investing? Why Consider Bank Loan Investing? September 2012 Bank loans continue to increase in popularity among a variety of investors in search of higher yield potential than other types of bonds, with lower relative

More information

Review of what we studied so far

Review of what we studied so far Review of what we studied so far We have studied 2 reasons why banks (more generally a financial system) are useful: 1. by monitoring firms and making it harder for entrepreneurs to shirk banks allow projects

More information

Please see below for the current credit ratings of Santander UK:

Please see below for the current credit ratings of Santander UK: Santander UK Santander UK is regulated on a standalone basis by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. The bank is UK focused with more than 95% of assets UK based. In the UK, the bank has a

More information

The table below shows Capita Asset Services forecast of the expected movement in medium term interest rates:

The table below shows Capita Asset Services forecast of the expected movement in medium term interest rates: Annex A Forecast of interest rates as at September 2015 The table below shows Capita Asset Services forecast of the expected movement in medium term interest rates: NOW Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16

More information