Morning Update July 22, 2016

Transcription

1 Market Highlights Digesting the new highs.. Investment Strategy Unit US equity markets retreated from their recent highs, after mixed earnings reports were announced. More specifically, Southwest Airlines, reported earnings below estimates, while German Lufthansa warned investors for turbulence ahead. In addition, the less forceful ECB decision to have wait and see strategy, in order to add more stimulus into struggling European economy, weighed on yesterday s sentiment. US equity markets closed lower, with DJ closing at 18517, down by -,42%, while S&P5 closed down by -,36%. The German DAX was up, 14% at 1156, while the French CAC was down by -,8% at Asian equities are trading lower this morning. The NIKKEI is down 1,28% at 16594, as Chinese equities are declining by,69%. Bonds kept mute US treasury yields moved a little lower, trying to digest recent economic data, as well as figure out the next move from various Central Banks. The yield on the 2 s moved lower settling at,67%, the 1 s is at 1,54% and the 3 s is at 2,27%. The spread between the 2 s and the 1 s is at 87 bps. The 1yr Bund yield is just below the borderline at -.1%. The spread between the US and Bund 1yr yield is at 155 bps. Crossover tightened to 313 bps. No Helicopter Money for Japan Georgios Lampros, Manager Tel: georgios.lampros@bankofcyprus.com Christos Kalogeris, Head Tel: christos.kalogeris@bankofcyprus.com Keyec Dr Marios Soupashis, Senior Officer Tel: marios.soupashis@bankofcyprus.com Achilleas Petrides, Officer Tel: achilleas.petrides@bankofcyprus.com Japanese Yen reversed its recent uptrend momentum, after BoJ Kuroda dismissed the idea of Helicopter money. The dollar continued to hold its ground against other major currencies. The EURUSD pair is at 1,126 while the USDJPY is at 15,81. The EURGBP pair is at,8332 while the GBPUSD pair is at 1,3226. Inventory pushed crude lower Oil prices are trading lower as many news about supply dragged prices lower. Iraq oil exports are set to rise in July, putting supply growth from OPEC s second largest producer back on track. Crude oil futures are trading below the $45 level. Gold spot prices rebounded from their recent lows, as risk off is coming back into the market. Gold price is trading around $1326. Declined 2 Daily Sentiment ** Unchanged 3 4 Advanced Key data for today: JP, EC, GR, FR, UK, US PMI Manufacturing 1 5 Bonds Equity Major Performances Equity Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW 5Y CHG S&P ,17 -,36%,1% 5,9% 2175,63 181,1 6,98% DAX 1156,21,14%,9% -5,5% 11669, ,29 38,63% CAC ,25 -,8% -,2% -5,6% 5217,8 3892,46 13,88% Shanghai 318,65 -,69% -1,2% -14,7% 4184, ,3 8,92% Nikkei 16581,73-1,42% 1,1% -12,9% 2946, ,1 63,56% Bonds Last Yld 1d Chg Bps YTD Bps Chg Average YTD LOW YTD HIGH US 1Y Yield 1,542 -,2-71,34 1,793 1,3579 2,2694 German 1Y Yield -,19 -,1-64,6,184 -,189,628 Currencies Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW 5Y CHG EURUSD 1,123,2% -,1% 1,5% 1,1714 1,524-23,2% USDJPY 15,89 -,8%,8% -13,7% 125,28 99,2-25,72% GBPUSD 1,3232 -,5%,3% -1,2% 1,5819 1, ,86% Commodities Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW 5Y CHG Gold Spot $/Oz 1325,99 -,32% -,8% 25,1% 1375,34 146,44-17,12% Crude Oil WTI 44,73 -,4% -4,1% 5,5% 55,73 32,85-56,65% 1 P a g e

2 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Equity Markets Major Indices Performances S&P 5 Index Index Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW 5YR Chg % S&P 5 INDEX 2165,17 -,36%,7% 5,93% 2175,63 181,1 6,98% DOW JONES INDUS. A 18517,2 -,42%,6% 6,27% ,3 46,2% NASDAQ COMPOSITE 573,9 -,31%,79% 1,33% ,76 77,48% DAX INDEX 1156,2,14%,87% -5,46% 11669,9 8699,29 38,63% CAC 4 INDEX 4376,25 -,8% -,21% -5,62% 5217,8 3892,46 13,88% FTSE 1 INDEX 6699,89 -,43%,68% 7,33% 6769,7 5499,51 12,89% MSCI WORLD 175,4 -,11%,28% 2,56% 1776, ,79 26,45% SWISS MARKET INDE 8182,45 -,18%,1% -7,21% 9537,9 7425,5 35,65% SHANGHAI SE COMP 318,7 -,69% -1,19% -14,72% 4184, ,3 8,92% NIKKEI ,7-1,42% 1,14% -12,93% 2946, ,56% HANG SENG INDEX 219,2 -,49% 1,8% -,1% ,8-2,46% MICEX INDEX 1927,7,66% -,76% 9,44% 1976,69 157,46 11,5% Athex Composite Sha 568,65 -,19% 1,3% -9,93% 85,67 42,82-55,79% GENERAL MARKET IN 66,9 -,9% 1,59% -1,25% 8,34 63,54-9,91% TOP 1 S&P 5 Movers by Change Company Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % EBAY INC 29,93 1,89% 14,76% 8,92% UNITED RENTALS INC 76,25 9,15% 9,57% 5,11% HUMANA INC 171,53 8,28% 6,36% -3,91% BIOGEN INC 282,45 7,64% 11,7% -7,8% QUALCOMM INC 59,93 7,36% 9,2% 19,9% ALLIANCE DATA SYS 228,85 6,43% 7,69% -17,25% CIGNA CORP 14,32 5,42% 7,93% -4,11% PULTEGROUP INC 21,51 5,34% 5,6% 2,71% CHESAPEAKE ENERG 4,97 4,85% 1,44% 1,44% FREEPORT-MCMORA 12,87 4,63% -,62% 9,1% Bank of Cyprus Volume Trade Volume SPX VIX Index Source:Bloomberg BOC CY infos BOC (Cyprus Stock Exchange) BOC GA (Athens Stock Exchange) Last Price,153 1 Day chg %,% 5 Day chg % 6,99% YTD % 3,38% 52 Week High,25 52 Week Low,121 6m Avg Volume Volume in Shares 31447,24,22,2,18,16,14,12,1, ,24,22,2,18,16,14,12,1, Market Cap Shares Out. Mil 8922,9 Trade Volume BOCY Trade Volume BOC 2 P a g e

3 Fixed Income Government Bonds Major Government Yields US 1Yr & German 1Yr Yields CNTRY 2YR 5 YR 1YR 3 YR USA,67% 1,9% 1,54% 2,27% UK,15%,38%,83% 1,72% GERMANY -,63% -,5% -,2%,51% FRANCE -,54% -,35%,21%,99% ITALY -,7%,32% 1,24% 2,29% SPAIN -,17%,2% 1,12% 2,23% IRELAND -,46% #VALUE!,47% GREECE 7,8% 7,7% JAPAN -,33% -,34% -,24%,26% AUSTRALIA 1,49% 1,53% 1,88% RUSSIA 9,21% 8,77% 8,55% US 1YR German 1YR 3,5 3 2,5 2 % 1,5 1,5 -,5 LIBOR % US 1Yr & German 1Y Spread CURRENCY 1M 3M 6M 12M USD $,49%,7% 1,2% 1,34% GBP,49%,52%,62%,83% EUR (Euribor) -,37% -,3% -,19% -,6% CHF -,8% -,76% -,68% -,55% JPY -,8% -,4% -,3%,6% AUD $ 2,87% 2,96% 3,6% 3,34% Fixed Income Corporate Bonds Credit Default SWAPS Name Last Price 2d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW US Investment Grade 71,342 1,61% -2,6% -19,15% 127,618 68,838 US High Yield 392,576 1,33%,16% -16,88% 589, ,297 Europe 67,185-2,77% -5,99% -12,81% 127,486 6,692 Europe Crrossover 313,469-2,27% -3,81% -,3% 498, ,931 Japan 57,6356,15% 9,13% -22,48% 18,164 52,5668 Asia ex japan 119,984,26% -1,14% -12,76% 177,921 18,152 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,3 % 1,1,9,7,5 ITraxx Europe & itraxx Crossover Europe Xover P a g e

4 Fixed Income Cyprus Government Bonds Outstanding Cyprus Bonds ISIN Last Price Yld Snt YLD % Yld Chg % Coupon XS ,365 2,12% -,23% 4,75% XS ,86 2,5% -,15% 4,63% XS ,532 3,38% -,2% 3,88% XS ,286 3,7%,1% 3,75% XS ,994 3,86% -,1% 4,25% 4,2 Maturity 4,1 25/6/219 3/2/22 4 6/5/222 3,9 26/7/223 4/11/225 % 3,8 3,7 Rating Moody's Fitch S&P Cyprus B1 B+ BB- Cyprus 1Y Bond yield FX Market 3,6 3,5 3,4 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Major Pairs Pair Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW EURUSD 1,123,2% -,6% 1,53% 1,1714 1,524 EURGBP,8331,6% -,34% 13,13%,86274,6959 EURRUB 71,33,18%,98% -9,92% 93, ,3763 EURJPY 116,6 -,7%,79% -1,75% ,57 EURCHF 1,861 -,9%,5% -,19% 1, ,57 USDJPY 15,89 -,8%,82% -12,4% 125,28 99,2 GBPUSD 1,3232 -,5%,26% -1,25% 1,5819 1,2798 USDCHF,9849 -,8%,22% -1,72% 1,328,9259 AUDUSD,7482 -,17% -1,27% 2,69%,7835,6827 USDCNY 6,6687 -,1% -,37% 2,69% 6,747 6,283 USDRUB 64,2986 -,3%,96% -11,34% 85, ,7527 USDCAD 1,315,13% 1,1% -5,3% 1,469 1,2461 EURGBP,9 1,45 1,4 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 1,95 Dollar Index , ,8 8, ,7 65,65 6,6 EURUSD Spot 4 P a g e

5 Commodities Commodities Table Crude Oil Spot Energy Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW Crude Oil 44,73 -,4% -4,12% 5,5% 55,73,3285 Brent Oil 46,27,15% -2,81% 8,84% 6,59 31,33 Casoline 135,64,1% -4,61% -8,42% 175,26 113,66 Heating Oil 137,43,26% -1,65% 8,58% 179,49 96,43 Natural Gas 2,673 -,85% -3,16% 14,21% 2,998 1,611 Metals Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW Gold 1327,23 -,3% -,77% 25,4% 1375,45 146,43 Silver 19,7375 -,26% -2,45% 42,53% 21, ,6482 Platinum 682,53 -,34% 4,84% 21,24% 723,65 451,85 Copper 224,95 -,4%,72% 4,58% 247,3 196,9 Agriculture Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW Corn 339,5 -,37% -5,23% -11,36% ,25 Soybeans 12,75 -,96% -5,15% 13,59% 1186,25 85 Coffee 146,85 -,1% -3,48% 1,79% 154,8 117, $ Gold Spot $ Alternatives Major Hedge Fund Strategies Index Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW Macro 1581,2 -,1% -1,8% 3,11% 1635, ,93 Macro CTA 1167,78 -,7% -,22% -,16% 1211,7 1146,6 Event Driven 1489,19,44%,87% 5,74% 1523,43 131,7 Market Neutral 993,42,15%,5% -4,49% 145,19 986,6 Global Hedge Fund 118,45,27%,44%,54% 124, ,45 Equity Hedge 1128,5,5%,62% -2,24% 1215,79 156,94 Credit 1915,67,11%,42% 1,92% 1994,44 188,83 Convertible Arb 723,36,23%,23% 3,2% 723,64 683,32 M&A 1784,53,6%,29% 2,69% 1784, ,22 Absolute Return 128,13,6%,3%,28% 135,57 113,9 Global Hedge Fund Index P a g e

6 Shipping Shipping Indices Baltic Dry Index & Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Last Price 1d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 52 HIGH 52 LOW Balctic Dry 726-1,36% -1,63% 51,88% Handysize 379,8% 4,99% 4,37% Clean Tanker 462,65% 6,21% -2,34% Dirty tanker 589 -,51% -5,% -32,22% Pana,max 85-2,52%,95% 83,98% Suprmax 71 -,14% 2,19% 55,78% Baltic Dry Dirty Tanker **Daily market Sentiment Equity S&P 5 7% DAX 3% Range Score >1.5% 5 <1.5%>.5% 4 <,5%>-,5% 3 <-,5%>-1,5% 2 >-1,5% 1 Bonds US 1Y Yield 7% German 1Y Yield 3% Range Score >1 1 <1>5 2 <5>-5 3 <-5>-1 4 >-1 5 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER Bank of Cyprus Group, Investment Strategy Unit Tel: , , , Fax Postal Address: P.O. Box 21472, Nicosia 1599, Cyprus. This report is intended for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. It is recommended that investors independently evaluate particular strategies and consult a financial adviser before proceeding to the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Note also that past performance may not be a reliable indicator of future results, while financial forecasts may not be a reliable indicator of future performance. This report has been compiled based on information obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but their accuracy, completeness, or correctness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The company, and/ or its affiliated companies or persons connected with it and/or directors and/or employees and/or clients may have a position, or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned herein or any related investment, or solicit business from any company 6 P a g e mentioned in this report.