GlobCurrent User Consultation Modelling & Prediction needs Mike Bell November Crown copyright Met Office

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1 GlobCurrent User Consultation Modelling & Prediction needs Mike Bell November 2014 Crown copyright Met Office

2 Contents Different types of - motion - use - modelling and prediction - data Some examples - visualisation using drifters - statistical validation - inertial currents Requirements Crown copyright Met Office

3 Types of motion Boundary currents and the ACC Mesoscale instabilities (mid-latitude and tropics) L = NH / f Kelvin waves (along coast & equator) Sub-mesoscale trapped within surface layer L = NH / f! Langmuir turbulence (rolls at the surface) Inertial currents synoptic scale; high frequency (> f ) Tides and surges Large-scale wind & buoyancy driven circulation (?)

4 Types of use Assimilation - need a good spatio-temporal distribution - retention of information varies greatly Verification / validation - can use relatively sparse data (wave buoys, surface drifters) Improvement of processes / techniques - example: inertial currents

5 Types of prediction Short range forecasting - open ocean: long list of motions of interest - shelf seas: tides rather dominant - storm surge & tidal prediction - surface waves: surface current interactions - weather forecasting: surface stresses ; hurricanes; mesoscale air/sea interaction Climate prediction - mixing by shear spiking from inertial waves Seasonal prediction supplementary information

6 Types of data SST experience - high frequency? (inertial frequency) - high spatial resolution? (mesoscale or higher?) - all-weather? Pattern matching cloud track - potentially good for motions at small scales? Altimetry along track or swathes? In situ drogued buoys 15 m; point values)

7 Crown copyright Met Office Some examples

8 Open Ocean forecasts FOAM-NEMO system NEMO physical model Temperature, salinity & currents 75 levels (1 m near surface) CICE sea-ice model NWP surface fluxes & river inputs Assimilation of data using NEMOVar Argo T, S profiles Surface height (satellite altimeters) Sea surface temperature Storkey, D. et al The new FOAM system J Operational Oceanography, 3, 3-15 FOAM-NEMO 1/4º Global FOAM-NEMO 1/12º Mediterranean One 6-day forecast per day 1-2 year hindcasts used for system assessments 20 year hindcasts FOAM-NEMO 1/12º Indian Ocean FOAM-NEMO 1/12º North Atlantic

9 Sea Surface Height field with surface drifter locations: Kuroshio Current Colours with contours: sea surface dynamic height from FOAM 1/4 o global system Colours tracks: sea surface dynamic height from satellite altimeters Black dots: locations of drogued buoys 15m): not assimilated

10 Chlorophyll concentration SeaWifs (colour) sea-surface height FOAM N Atlantic (contours) Feb 2007 (NRL Stennis used this technique frequently) Crown copyright Met Office

11 Crown copyright Met Office Velocity parallel to African coast at 150 m depth showing Kelvin wave propagation

12 Differences between FOAM versions v11 and v12 Assimilation Scheme error (co)variances Ice model Vertical levels Bathymetry SBCs frequency penetrating solar radiation Haney retroaction Horizontal momentum advection FOAM v11 OCNASM (AC) seasonal LIM2: 1 category 50 Mercator Océan orca025 Direct fluxes 3-hourly 2-band SST Mixed laplacian/bilaplacian FOAM v12 NEMOVAR (3D-Var) interpolated from seasonal CICE: 5 category 75 DRAKKAR G70 orca025 CORE bulk formulae 3-hourly with hourly winds RGB SSS Bilaplacian

13 Crown copyright Met Office Verification / validation of FOAM surface currents using surface drifters

14 Crown copyright Met Office Verification / validation of FOAM surface currents using surface drifters

15 Crown copyright Met Office Verification / validation of FOAM surface currents using surface drifters

16 Near inertial currents They contain a lot of energy and are important for users They are wind-driven large scale & potentially predictable They generate significant pulses of mixing at the base of the mixed layer (when currents & wind forcing coincide) in open ocean and shelf seas (Tom Rippeth) Potential to improve prediction and parametrisation

17 Requirements need to know what the data represents & its errors prefer up-stream data (interpolate the model to the data) need reliable data provision - Ideally within 6 hours for data assimilation (48 hour max) - Within 3 days for validation

18 Summary Interested in a wide range of - motions boundary, mesoscale, unresolved, tides & surge - Uses assimilation, verification, validation - predictions short-range ocean, waves, NWP; longer ranges - data complementary strengths Some examples - visualisation using patterns and drifters - statistical validation of new versions - inertial currents to improve parametrisation & prediction Requirements clearly defined, upstream, timely data Crown copyright Met Office

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