Commercial Auto Product Management Opportunities Using Predictive Modeling

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1 Commercial Auto Product Management Opportunities Using Predictive Modeling Gary C. Wang, FCAS, MAAA March 10, CAS RPM Seminar Las Vegas, NV

2 In the News National Underwriter, July 16, 2007

3 In the News Transportation Insurance Numbers Point To Steady Declines Excess capacity Pursuit of premium volume Largest decreases seen in insuring general trucking operations NU Online News Service, Nov. 21, 2008

4 Why Commercial Auto? Many Rating Plan Factors Best Exposure Data Most External Data Opportunities SIC VIN MVR Credit Parallels/Lessons from Personal Auto Best Opportunity for Biggest Improvement

5 Commercial Auto Background Trucks, Tractors, and Trailers rating based on: Primary rating factors based on Size (Gross Vehicle or Cargo Weight) Use (Service, Retail, Commercial) Radius of Operations (<50 miles, , > 200) Secondary Factors by Industry Fleet vs. Non-Fleet (5 or more powered units) Physical Damage by Age and Original Cost New

6 COMMERCIAL AUTOMOBILE MANUAL SECTION II CLASSES AND TYPES TRUCKS, TRACTORS AND TRAILERS 5. NON-FLEET PRIMARY CLASSIFICATIONS - RATING FACTORS AND STATISTICAL CODES Radius Class Size Business Use Local Intermediate Long Distance Class Class Up to 50 Miles 51 to 200 Miles Over 200 Miles Liability Phys. Dam. Liability Phys. Dam. Liability Phys. Dam. Service Factor Code Light Retail Factor Trucks Code (0-10,000 lbs. Commercial Factor G.V.W.) Code Zone Rated Service Factor Code Medium Retail Factor Trucks Code (10,001-20,000 Commercial Factor lbs. G.V.W.) Code Service Factor Code Heavy Retail Factor Trucks Code (20,001-45,000 Commercial Factor lbs. G.V.W.) Code

7 Example Secondary Factors Secondary Classification Factor Code a. Building Commercial b. Building Private Dwellings c. Electrical, Plumbing, Masonry, Plastering and Other Repair or Service d. Excavating e. Street and Road f. All Other Not Otherwise Specified Secondary Factors a. Logging and Lumbering b. All Other

8 Commercial Auto Background Private Passenger Type (PPT) rating based on: Liability on territory and limit only Physical Damage by Age and Original Cost New (Not Symbol!) Only Limited Driver Rating

9 Example PPT Factors Operator Experience Factor No operator licensed less than 5 years 0.75 Operator licensed less than 5 years 1.40 not owner or principal operator Owner or principal operator licensed 2.00 less than 5 years Use Factor Not driven to work or school 0.00 To or from work less than 15 miles 0.15 To or from work 15 or more miles 0.25

10 Commercial Auto Class Problems Primary Class Factors Hard to Verify Weight Radius Use Secondary Factors Useless & Unused Better Groupings Exist (ICC, SIC) Fleet Definition not Scientific or Uniform Tainted Industry Relativities (GIGO) Physical Damage Rated on Age & Cost New Rarely Verified No Symbol Rating

11 Other Commercial Auto Issues Trucks vs. Cars Rating No Reflection of Personal Use No Rating of Drivers/MVRs Driver Age Violations Accidents Driver Restrictions No Insured Characteristics in Rating SEVERE Adverse Selection vs. Personal Auto

12 Commercial Auto Pricing Today Tiered LCMs By Statutory Company By Vehicle Type and Coverage By Territory Some Independent PCFs and SCFs Some SIC and Package Mods Premium Discounts Simplified Experience Rating

13 Key Trends National Underwriter July 16, 2007

14 Enhancing the Current Class Plan

15 Potential Enhancements to the Current Rating Plan ICC Weight Classes Rethink Fleet Factors Number of Vehicles/Drivers SIC-based Use and Secondary Factors Different Radii or Annual Mileage New Territory Definitions Package Modification Factors

16 BI/PD Class Factors Lgt, Local, Serv Lgt, Local, Ret Lgt, Local, Comm Lgt, Inter, Serv Lgt, Inter, Ret Lgt, Inter, Comm Med, Local, Serv Med, Local, Ret Med, Local, Comm Med, Inter, Serv Med, Inter, Ret Med, Inter, Comm Hvy, Local, Serv Hvy, Local, Ret Hvy, Local, Comm Hvy, Inter, Serv Hvy, Inter, Ret Hvy, Inter, Comm Thousands Exposures Current Indicated Fleet Indicated Non-Fleet

17 ICC Weight Classes

18 UCC Forms and Usage-Based Rating

19 Indicated SIC Relativities On-Balance SIC 3 Description Exposure Relativity 171X Plumbing/HVAC 37, X Electrical Contractors 36, X Carpentry 32, X Misc. Contractors 23, XX Printing/Publishing 16, XX (o/t 357) Industrial Machinery 19, X Hardware Wholesaler 10, X Grocery Wholesaler 16, X Home Furnishings 11, X Restaurants 12, XX Misc. Retail 38, XX Insurance Agents 13, XX Real Estate 30, X Laundry/Dry Cleaning 13, X Building Services 19, X Computer Services 16, XX Misc. Repair Services 15, XX Health Services 18, XX Eng. & Mgt. Services 80,

20 SIC Relativities

21 Cargo/Trailer Combinations Flatbed Steel Pipe Building Materials Other Dry Van Carpet/Garment Food Alcohol/Tobacco Moving & Storage Less Than Trailer Load (LTL) Other Tanker Food Grade Petroleum Products Chemical Haz Mat Refrigerated Box Produce Seafood Alcohol/Tobacco Other

22 Impact of Number of Vehicles Vehicle Count Distribution of Exposures Restricted Relativity

23 Territory Refinement

24 Package Discounts

25 and now for something completely different

26 Additional Commercial Auto Solutions Driver Rating Age Restrictions Private Passenger Type Vehicle Characteristics/Symbols Underwriting Scorecards (Credit, Owners, etc.) Safety Devices Loss Control Survey Information

27 Impact of Average Driver Age < Average Age of Drivers Distribution of Exposures Restricted Relativities

28 24% Youthful Driver Surcharges 115% 115% 115% 61% 61% 44% 44% 23% 23% 21% 21% 6% 6% 0% percent of drivers between ages 14 and % 115% 115% 115% > 75 <= > 70 <= 75 0 > 0 <= 5 > 5 <= 10 > 10 <= 15 > 15 <= 20 > 20 <= 25 > 25 <= 30 > 30 <= 35 > 35 <= 40 > 40 <= 45 > 45 <= 50 > 50 <= 55 > 55 <= 60 > 60 <= 65 > 65 <= 70 Oneway relativities Approx 95% confidence interval Unsmoothed estimate Smoothed estimate ssing>

29 Impact of Driver Restrictions 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 7% 7% 2% 2% 0% 0 > 0 <= 5 > 5 <= 10 > 10 <= 15 > 15 <= 20 > 20 <= 25 > 25 <= 30 > 30 <= > 35 <= > 40 <= > 45 <= > 50 <= > 55 <= > 60 <= > 65 <= percent of records with restrictions (other than corrective lenses) > 70 <= 75 > 75 <= 80 > 80 <= 85 > 85 <= 90 > 90 <= 95 > 95 < Oneway relativities Approx 95% confidence interval Unsmoothed estimate Smoothed estimate

30 CA Scorecard Example Accidents per Driver Accidents/ Driver Score Points 0% 40 Up to 20% % % 10 More than 80% 0 Moving Violations per Drive Moving Violations/ Score Points Driver Up to 20% % % 25 More than 60% 0 Credit Score Score Credit Score Points A 75 M 20 NS 40 S 125 U 0 Average Driver Age Average Driver Age Score Points 25 & Under & over 0 Number of Vehicles Drivers # of Vehicles Drivers Score Points Over MVR No-Hits per Driver MVRs w/ "No Hit"/ Total Score Points Drivers 0% 35 Up to 10% 15 More than 10% 0

31 CA Scorecard Example Total Points Relativity

32 Key Trends National Underwriter July 16, 2007

33 Impact of Loss Prevention Devices

34 Loss Control Survey as Scorecard Input

35 Key Players

36 Commercial Auto Pricing - Progressive Body Type Vehicle Use/Industry Detailed Weight Classes Detailed Territories Personal Use Surcharge Renewal Discount Paid in Full Discount More Robust Schedule Rating Credit Driver MVR Scoring Independent Experience Rating Plan

37 CA Scorecard Example - Hartford

38 CA Scorecard Example - Hartford NOTICE THE LIFT!

39 For More Information Gary C. Wang, FCAS, MAAA

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