PRAGUE RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "PRAGUE RESIDENTIAL MARKET"

Transcription

1 RESEARCH PRAGUE RESIDENTIAL MARKET MARKET OVERVIEW 15/H1

2 Jan 1 Feb 1 March 1 April 1 May 1 June 1 July 1 August 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 15 Feb 15 March 15 April 15 May 15 June * 1* 17* In the following report you will find new information related to the developments on the residential property market in the first half of 15. Please note, that all the information published in this report is the result of market monitoring or comes from publicly available sources. MACROECONOMIC DATA GDP GROWTH RATE Based on the recent CZSO information the Czech Republic has been experiencing a slow recovery from the crisis recording the positive y-o-y and q-o-q levels of GDP. In the year 1 the Czech economy was expanding reaching the GDP growth rate of %. The GDP yearly growth in 15/Q1 was revised up from 3.9 % y-o-y to. % y-o-y, also the CZSO estimate of quarter on quarter growth in Q1 was altered to 3.1 % (3 basis points above the CZSO preliminary estimate from the middle of May). Domestic demand was particularly strong in 15/Q1 and significantly overcame the impact of foreign demand. In terms of GDP growth registered in the EU8, Eurostat informed flash estimate for 15/Q1 the y-o-y GDP growth in the EU8 was 1.5 % and the GDP in the euro area rose by 1. % y-o-y. (Source: Eurostat). % 8,3,8,1 GDP PROGNOSIS The latest forecast published by the ČNB on th August 15 informed about the following GDP growth rate development the estimation for 15 was set at 3.8 % and for both 1 and 17 at.8 %.,5 -,1 *forecast revealed by CNB Chart 1: GDP Growth Rate,7 1,9 -,9 -,9 3,8,8, The below fan chart captures the uncertainty of the future development of the seasonally adjusted GDP growth. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast relates to the development, which occurs with 3% probability. The expansions of the bands represent the development with probability of 5%, 7% and 9% respectively. Source: CNB % Source: CNB III/13 IV I/1 II III IV I/15 II III IV I/1 II III IV I/17 INFLATION RATE Eurostat Chart : CNB - GDP Prognosis 9% 7% 5% 3% confidence interval According to the CZSO, consumer prices in June grew compared with June of the previous year by.8 %. At the beginning of the second quarter the y-o-y CPI was gradually increasing with the consumer price growth recorded in April 15 at.5 % and in May standing at.7 %. The 1 year recorded the average annual inflation rate of only. %. Chart 3: Inflation Rate CZ Inflation rate (%) EU Inflation rate (%) Page / 8 PROFESSIONALS s.r.o., V Celnici /131, 11 Praha 1, T: , F: , E:

3 /Q1 1/Q 1/Q3 1/Q 15/Q1 15/Q /Q1 15/Q Jan March May July Sept Nov Jan 1 March May July September November Jan 15 March May UNEMPLOYMENT The share of unemployed persons further fell in the second quarter of 15 and dropped below the 7% threshold. The share recorded in April, May and June stood at.7 %,. % and. % respectively. Apart from the period between November 1 and January 15, the share of unemployed persons indicator has been virtually declining since the beginning of 1 when it stood at the maximum 8. % (Source: MLSA). CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT INDEX First five months of the 15 year recorded positive construction output indices in excess of 5 %; in the period between Jan June 15 the highest y-o-y growth was registered in May (+11.9 %). The y-o-y construction output indices in March and in April were also oscillating around +11 %, the index in June stood at 7.8 %. After six years of construction industry decline, the year 1 experienced finally increase reaching.3 % y-o-y. () % 9 8,5 8 7,5 Chart : Share of unemployed persons in the Czech Republic % Chart : Construction Production Index 1 1, 9,3 1 8,8 8 7,1 5, 3, ,9,5, , -3, -7, -,7 Source: MPSV, CZSO, Eurostat CZK / USD, EUR Euro average exchange rate decreased notably; in 15/Q the average rate reached 7.38 CZK /. In contrast, the USD average exchange rate increased to.8 CZK / USD. INTEREST RATES All three key interest rates remained in Q at the previous levels. The W Repo Rate was at.5 %, the discount rate at.5% and the Lombard rate stood at.5% (Source: CNB) CZK Chart 5: Exchange rates ( and $) % Chart 7: W Repo, PRIBOR M, EURIBOR M 9 7,38 5, Source: CNB Exchange rate Exchange rate $ Source: CNB PRIBOR M EURIBOR M W REPO Page 3 / 8 PROFESSIONALS s.r.o., V Celnici /131, 11 Praha 1, T: , F: , E:

4 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY NUMBER OF ISSUED BUILDING PERMITS IN PRAGUE There were in total,33 building permits issued in the first half of 15, of which 19 permits were supplied solely in respect to brand new residential projects. During the first two quarters of this year, overall 1,37 new building permits were issued in the residential segment. When looking at the developments in the last years, the number of building permits issued in Prague was decreasing - in 1 standing at only 5,73 (when compared to, the difference in total issued permits stood at almost 1). () Chart 8: Number of issued building permits New residential construction Residential buildings Total /H New residential construction Residential buildings Total NEW CONSTRUCTION OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES The CZSO recorded in total 3,3 constructions which started during the first half of 15. Number of newly started apartments in multi-dwelling houses amounted to,1, whilst only 5 of new constructions were started in family houses. In the period between 11 and 1, the total number of new building construction and renewals was on the rise. Provided that the 15/H1 figure already exceeded 3,, it can be expected the 15 year may also show y-o-y increase. 9 Chart 9: Number of newly started apartment construction in Prague /H1 Renewals New construction Total Source: ČSÚ Renewals New construction Total Page / 8 PROFESSIONALS s.r.o., V Celnici /131, 11 Praha 1, T: , F: , E:

5 index (1 = 1) NEWLY COMPLETED APARTMENTS IN PRAGUE Prague experienced new delivery of,738 apartments in the first half of 15. The above mentioned figure includes also 3 new apartments completed in family houses,,73 flats newly completed in multi-dwelling houses and 138 apartments finished in all types of extensions in multi-dwelling projects. Since 11 the total number of newly completed apartments was much lower than in the previous period between the years and 1; 1 recorded,75 new completed apartments whilst in 7 the figure exceeded 9,. () 1 Chart 1: Number of newly completed apartments in Prague /H1 Extensions of multi-dwelling bldgs In family houses In multi-dwelling bldgs Total In multi-dwelling bldgs. In family houses Extensions of multi-dwelling bldgs. Total PRICES OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES The CZSO informed about the new data for 15/Q1 and Q. Asking prices of apartments in the Czech Republic, in Prague and also in the rest of the locations in the Czech Republic apart from Prague increased significantly. In the second quarter of 15, the index of asking prices of apartments in the Czech Republic reached 15. (the highest recorded level since 8/Q); at the end of 1 the index stood at only Chart 11: Asking prices of apartments (index, 1= 1) Czech Republic Prague quarter/year Czech Republic (Prague not inlcuded) Page 5 / 8 PROFESSIONALS s.r.o., V Celnici /131, 11 Praha 1, T: , F: , E:

6 AVERAGE MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES Since the beginning of 1 the average mortgage interest rates were sharply decreasing. Nevertheless, there was a change recorded in this trend in July this year, when a slight rates increase occurred again. In both May and June 15, the average mortgage interest rates remained at.5 %. In these months the indicator reached a long-term minimum. In July 15, the average rates grew to.8 %. 3,8% 3,% 3,% 3,% 3,%,8%,%,%,%,% Chart 1: Average interest rates of mortgages Source: RESIDENTIAL MARKET Residential market in Prague and its surroundings continues to grow. Many clients due to adverse economic developments put off buying a property at a later period. With the current GDP growth and positive outlook for the future they decide to invest or provide housing their families. The number of unsold apartments built in both old and new projects has significantly declined, most developers report increased interest and very good sales results. There is demand for both construction sites and for projects with zoning decisions and building permits, which naturally pushes the price up. Several major projects in Prague changed the investors during the last year. After years of decline the cost of construction work also increases, this will affect the final price for customers. We expect that the increased demand for apartments and apartments in new developments will continue to growth in the next year too and the price of mortgage loans will very gently begin to rise. In the market there is a surplus of free money, this makes difficult for the banks to increase their interest rates. Professionals, s. r. o. Disclaimer Clause The information in this report has been obtained from the sources trusted to be reliable. In spite of our best efforts, Professionals, s. r. o., cannot guarantee its accuracy and/or completeness and cannot be responsible for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inaccuracy and/or incompleteness in this report. This report is created by Professionals, s. r. o. and the information in it is dedicated to the exclusive use of its clients. The report and the information contained in it cannot be copied or reproduced without prior permission from Professionals, s. r. o. Page / 8 PROFESSIONALS s.r.o., V Celnici /131, 11 Praha 1, T: , F: , E:

7 PROFESSIONALS s.r.o., V Celnici /131, 11 Praha 1, T: , F: , E: Page 7 / 8

8 PROFESSIONALS s.r.o. V CELNICI /131, 11 PRAHA 1 ČESKÁ REPUBLIKA T: , E:

CZECH INVESTMENT MARKET

CZECH INVESTMENT MARKET RESEARCH CZECH INVESTMENT MARKET MARKET OVERVIEW 1 / Q3 MACROECONOMIC DATA... 3 GDP GROWTH RATE... 3 GDP PROGNOSIS... 3 INFLATION RATE... 3 UNEMPLOYMENT... CZK / USD, EUR... CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT INDEX...

More information

Recent Developments in the Czech Economy and CNB s New Forecast

Recent Developments in the Czech Economy and CNB s New Forecast Public Presentation of the EEAG Report Recent Developments in the Czech Economy and CNB s New Forecast Kamil Galuščák Czech National Bank CERGE-EI, Prague, 4 February 16 Motivation and Outline Reflections

More information

CZECH ECONOMY CZECH ECONOMY. Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek Director of the Department of Economic Analysis

CZECH ECONOMY CZECH ECONOMY. Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek Director of the Department of Economic Analysis 1 Overview of the Czech Economy GDP Employment Balance of Payments FDIs Balance of Budget Industry Foreign Trade 2 Main Characteristics of the Czech Economy High economic growth until mid 2008 catching

More information

Monetary Policy of CNB:

Monetary Policy of CNB: 43rd Eurobanking Meeting Prague 15 Monetary Policy of CNB: Czech FX Commitment Midterm Assessment Lubomír Lízal, Ph.D. Praha, June 1, 15 Situation of the Czech economy in 13: Inflation actual vs. targets

More information

Current macroeconomic developments in the Czech Republic in the context of using the exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument

Current macroeconomic developments in the Czech Republic in the context of using the exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument Current macroeconomic developments in the Czech Republic in the context of using the exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument Jiří Rusnok FIMMDA PDAI 16 th Annual Conference 2015 Prague, 17 August,

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November, Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

The Exchange Rate as a Monetary Policy Instrument: CNB Experience. Miroslav Singer

The Exchange Rate as a Monetary Policy Instrument: CNB Experience. Miroslav Singer The Exchange Rate as a Monetary Policy Instrument: CNB Experience Miroslav Singer Governor, Czech National Bank Monetary Policy Challenges in a Changing World Zurich, 12 May 2015 M. Recent Developments

More information

The Czech Economy and Monetary Policy: Deflationary Risks and the Exchange Rate as a Monetary Policy Instrument Luboš Komárek

The Czech Economy and Monetary Policy: Deflationary Risks and the Exchange Rate as a Monetary Policy Instrument Luboš Komárek The Czech Economy and Monetary Policy: Deflationary Risks and the Exchange Rate as a Monetary Policy Instrument Luboš Komárek 75th East Jour Fixe - 1 Years of EU Enlargement Vienna, 25th April 214 I. Did

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report III/2016) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, August 5, 2016 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the

More information

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial

More information

Global Prospects and recovery of Trinidad and Tobago

Global Prospects and recovery of Trinidad and Tobago Global Prospects and recovery of Trinidad and Tobago Anthony Birchwood (PHD) Caribbean Centre for Money and Finance The University of the West Indies. Presented at AREA, May 16 th 2012 Global Prospects

More information

Hungary s GDP growth among EU top five in Q1 2015

Hungary s GDP growth among EU top five in Q1 2015 Hungary s GDP growth among EU top five in Q1 2015 According to seasonally adjusted GDP data published in the latest Eurostat flash report, in Q1 2015 gross domestic product grew by 0.4 percent in the Euro-zone

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2016) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 6 May, 2016 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

Financial Stability Report 2015/2016

Financial Stability Report 2015/2016 Financial Stability Report 2015/2016 Press Conference Presentation Miroslav Singer Governor Prague, 14 June 2016 Structure of presentation I. Overall assessment of risks and setting of countercyclical

More information

Contents. General overview Key Economic figures Main Economic trends Financial services sector Economic Outlook...

Contents. General overview Key Economic figures Main Economic trends Financial services sector Economic Outlook... Contents General overview... 3 Key Economic figures... 5 Main Economic trends... 6 Financial services sector... 11 Economic Outlook... 15 General overview The financial and economic crisis called for the

More information

Economic indicators dashboard

Economic indicators dashboard AS OF NOVEMBER 17, 2015 Economic indicators dashboard Vist www.blog.helpingadvisors.com for the full commentary of the Economic Indicators Dashboard. MOST RECENT 3-MO. trend TYPICAL range EXTREME range

More information

Steel Production in Czech Republic. Eurofer Economic Committee Meeting Brussels April 2015

Steel Production in Czech Republic. Eurofer Economic Committee Meeting Brussels April 2015 Steel Production in Czech Republic Eurofer Economic Committee Meeting Brussels April 2015 Main Economic Indicators % Change Czech Republic 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16P Private Consumption 1,0 0.2-1,8 0,4 1,7

More information

Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments. (April 2015)

Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments. (April 2015) Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments (April 2015) Development of the industrial sector in 2014 After two years of recession, industrial production returned to growth in 2014.

More information

INFLATION REPORT / I 2009

INFLATION REPORT / I 2009 INFLATION REPORT / I 29 INFLATION REPORT / I FOREWORD 1 In 1998, the Czech National Bank switched to direct inflation targeting. In the inflation targeting regime, the central bank s communication with

More information

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5.1 Comparison with the Previous Macroeconomic Scenario The differences between the macroeconomic scenarios of the current

More information

Czech Republic: Shore in Sight?

Czech Republic: Shore in Sight? Czech Republic: Shore in Sight? Eva Zamrazilová Member of the Board Czech National Bank The 7th International Days of Statistics and Economics 19 th 2th September 213 Prague School of Economics Economic

More information

Komerční banka Group Financial results as of 31 December 2015

Komerční banka Group Financial results as of 31 December 2015 Komerční banka Group Financial results as of 31 December 2015 According to International Financial Reporting Standards, consolidated, unaudited Prague, 11 February 2016 Disclaimer This document contains

More information

Czech Economy and CNB s Exchange Rate Commitment: Waiting for Godots

Czech Economy and CNB s Exchange Rate Commitment: Waiting for Godots Czech Economy and CNB s Exchange Rate Commitment: Waiting for Godots Tomáš Holub (Executive Director, Monetary Department) 24 November 2015, London Citibank Investor Seminar Motto ESTRAGON: Charming spot.

More information

Komerční banka Group Financial results as of 30 September 2015

Komerční banka Group Financial results as of 30 September 2015 Komerční banka Group Financial results as of 30 September 2015 According to International Financial Reporting Standards, consolidated, unaudited Prague, 5 November 2015 Disclaimer This document contains

More information

Economic projections

Economic projections Economic projections 2016-2019 December 2016 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2016-2019 Economic activity in Malta is expected to remain robust over the projection horizon, supported

More information

BTMU Focus Latin America Peru: macroeconomic performance Peru: (1Q 2015)

BTMU Focus Latin America Peru: macroeconomic performance Peru: (1Q 2015) BTMU Focus Latin America Peru: macroeconomic performance Peru: (Q ) MUFG UNION BANK Economic Research (New York) Hongrui Zhang Latin America Economist hozhang@us.mufg.jp +()8-8 July, I. Growth Momentum

More information

FINANCIAL MARKET INFLATION EXPECTATIONS - AUGUST. Financial Market Department Operations Analyses Division

FINANCIAL MARKET INFLATION EXPECTATIONS - AUGUST. Financial Market Department Operations Analyses Division FINANCIAL MARKET INFLATION EXPECTATIONS - AUGUST Financial Market Department Operations Analyses Division 2016 I. SUMMARY 2 Thirteen domestic and three foreign analysts sent in their contributions to the

More information

Economic indicators dashboard

Economic indicators dashboard CURRENT AS OF APRIL 30, 2014 Economic indicators dashboard Vist www.blog.helpingadvisors.com for the full commentary of the Economic Indicators Dashboard. MOST RECENT 3-MO. trend TYPICAL range EXTREME

More information

CONTENT FOR MORE INFORMATION: UK Overview UK Hotels Performance. UK Hotel Development Trends. Top 5 Predictions

CONTENT FOR MORE INFORMATION: UK Overview UK Hotels Performance. UK Hotel Development Trends. Top 5 Predictions UK Hotels Market Assessment 2015 CONTENT FOR MORE INFORMATION: UK Overview 2015 UK Hotels Performance UK Hotel Development Trends Top 5 Predictions UK Overview Economy In 2015, the UK economy slowed down

More information

Asda Income Tracker. Report: April 2016 Released: May Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd

Asda Income Tracker. Report: April 2016 Released: May Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Asda Income Tracker Report: April 2016 Released: May 2016 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t 020 7324 2850 w www.cebr.com

More information

Falling home prices, worsening credit availability, shrinking equity values, and growing

Falling home prices, worsening credit availability, shrinking equity values, and growing Economic Outlook Falling home prices, worsening credit availability, shrinking equity values, and growing job losses delivered a crushing blow to the national and California economies in 2008. Consumer

More information

Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q1 2013

Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q1 2013 Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q1 2013 Published in March 2013 1 Contents Summary of Quarter 4 2012 and economic outlook: Global. United Kingdom. Northern Ireland. 1. Gross output estimates.

More information

Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor

Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor Vladimir Tomsik Vice-Governor Czech National Bank Small Talks Symposium 9 October 2015 Investor Seminar 10 October 2015 IMF/WB Annual Meeting

More information

3. Components of social development

3. Components of social development 3. Components of social development 3.1. Proportions of economy performance and social development Growth of household consumption fell behind the GDP growth Favourable economic development after 2 and

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

Debt Portfolio Management Quarterly Report

Debt Portfolio Management Quarterly Report Ministry of Finance Debt and Financial Assets Management Department Debt Portfolio Management Quarterly Report First Half of 2015 17 July 2015 Ministry of Finance Debt Portfolio Management Quarterly Report

More information

IMPACT OF THE CNB'S EXCHANGE RATE COMMITMENT: PASS-THROUGH TO INFLATION

IMPACT OF THE CNB'S EXCHANGE RATE COMMITMENT: PASS-THROUGH TO INFLATION IMPACT OF THE CNB'S EXCHANGE RATE COMMITMENT: PASS-THROUGH TO INFLATION Vladimir Tomsik Vice-governor of the Czech National Bank BIS Emerging Market Deputy Governors Meeting Basel, January 28-29, 2016

More information

DKK: Central Bank Preview

DKK: Central Bank Preview DKK: Central Bank Preview July 2012 Kasper Kirkegaard Senior Strategist +45 45 13 70 18 kaki@danskebank.com Lars Tranberg Rasmussen Senior Strategist +45 45 12 85 34 laras@danskebank.com Anders Møller

More information

Monthly Economic Bulletin

Monthly Economic Bulletin Monthly Economic Bulletin January 2016 The Monthly Economic Bulletin The Department s Monthly Economic Bulletin (MEB) provides a monthly update of some of the key developments within the Irish economy

More information

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015 Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3

More information

Macau Hotel Guest Rooms available (YOY comparsion)

Macau Hotel Guest Rooms available (YOY comparsion) Hotel Indicators June 212 Hotel establishment and room capacities There were a total of 66 hotels (excluding guesthouses) operating in Macau as at the end of June 212, providing a total of 23,635 hotel

More information

UNITED KINGDOM. United Kingdom

UNITED KINGDOM. United Kingdom UNITED KINGDOM Growth has slowed, and is projected to be 1¾ per cent in 216. Uncertainty about the outcome of the end-june 216 referendum, which could lead to an exit of the United Kingdom from the European

More information

Inflation. Credit. Coincident indicator (Ita-coin) and Italian GDP (1) (percentage changes)

Inflation. Credit. Coincident indicator (Ita-coin) and Italian GDP (1) (percentage changes) NUMBER 16 FEBRUARY 216 Economic activity and employment Foreign trade and competitiveness Inflation Credit The Public Finances Macroeconomic projections 1 7 8 11 12 Directorate general for economics, statistics

More information

China Market Outlook

China Market Outlook China Market Outlook - 2015 2014 OVERVIEW: CHINA MARKET OUTLOOK 2015 The Hang Sheng market delivered -1.20% returns YTD whereas the Shanghai Composite Index delivered around 40% returns YTD. The factors

More information

CENTRAL BANK OF SEYCHELLES

CENTRAL BANK OF SEYCHELLES CENTRAL BANK OF SEYCHELLES MONTHLY REVIEW August 2013 1.0 Key Economic Developments August 2013 observed a slight monthly pick-up of 0.5 per cent in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which was primarily associated

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Mortgage Originations Estimates Revised Higher MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: February 2016 In our most recent forecast, we presented revisions to our mortgage

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

KB Group. 1Q 2008 Financial Results (International Financial Standards) Prague 14 May 2008

KB Group. 1Q 2008 Financial Results (International Financial Standards) Prague 14 May 2008 KB Group 1Q 2008 Financial Results (International Financial Standards) Prague 14 May 2008 KB 1Q 2008 results Prague 14 May 2008 Disclaimer This document contains a number of forward-looking statements

More information

Analysis of Real Estate Transactions in Lebanon

Analysis of Real Estate Transactions in Lebanon July 2013 Analysis of Real Estate Transactions in Lebanon (2008-2013) Table of Contents: Real Estate Transactions (2008-2012):... 2 Evolution of Value and Volume of Real Estate Transactions:... 2 Volume

More information

Prospects for the Construction Industry. Oebele Vries

Prospects for the Construction Industry. Oebele Vries Prospects for the Construction Industry Oebele Vries Economic framework Credit crisis: deep global recession Strongly decreasing investment demand Lack of commercial credit possiblities Bottom has been

More information

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT FOREIGN TRADE AND COMPETITIVENESS INFLATION CREDIT THE PUBLIC FINANCES

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT FOREIGN TRADE AND COMPETITIVENESS INFLATION CREDIT THE PUBLIC FINANCES NUMBER 99 JULY 21 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT FOREIGN TRADE AND COMPETITIVENESS INFLATION CREDIT THE PUBLIC FINANCES MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS 1 7 8 11 12 Directorate general for economics, statistics

More information

Danske Bank May 4th 2016 Economic Update,

Danske Bank May 4th 2016 Economic Update, Monthly update: 4 May 2016 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local job and investment announcements during April 2016: Over the month of April 2016 there were no new job announcements

More information

Improving net external financing capacity of the Hungarian economy

Improving net external financing capacity of the Hungarian economy Improving net external financing capacity of the Hungarian economy Net external financing capacity of Hungary has steadily and significantly improved in the past couple of years. The same applies to the

More information

Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2016-2018

Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2016-2018 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2016-2018 7 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2016-2018 1. Introduction Projections for the Portuguese economy point to a moderate recovery in economic activity

More information

Foreign currency lending: the flow and the stock problem

Foreign currency lending: the flow and the stock problem Foreign currency lending: the flow and the stock problem Júlia Király Ádám Banai 2nd NBRM Research Conference "Policy Nexus and the Global Environment: a New Consensus Emerging from the Crisis?" 26 April

More information

CHART OF THE WEEK WEEK ON THE MARKETS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK 10/2015. GDP and its structure (YoY) English translation by an external party

CHART OF THE WEEK WEEK ON THE MARKETS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK 10/2015. GDP and its structure (YoY) English translation by an external party English translation by an external party HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK 10/2015 > Chart of the Week: Economy in 4Q dragged up by domestic demand, both consumer and investment > Labour Market Remains Positive Unemployment

More information

Latvia during the global economic and financial crisis

Latvia during the global economic and financial crisis Latvia during the global economic and financial crisis Second Japan Baltic Seminar 1 December 2009, Tokyo 1 Different experience behind, challenges ahead 15 10 5 Transition -56% in 1991-1993 GDP 1991-2012

More information

The Life with FX Commitment: Midterm Evaluation and Outlook

The Life with FX Commitment: Midterm Evaluation and Outlook Adam Smith Seminar The Life with FX Commitment: Midterm Evaluation and Outlook Lubomír Lízal, Ph.D. Adam Smith Seminar Series Paris March 8-9, 16 Outline 1. Situation of the Czech economy in 13. Passive

More information

Report from the Republic of Serbia

Report from the Republic of Serbia Report from the Republic of Serbia Introduction Expectations of the government and participants in the market at the start of 2011 were directed towards continuing the economic recovery begun in 2010.

More information

Economic Outlook December 2015

Economic Outlook December 2015 Economic Outlook December 215 Economics Unit HEADLINES The global economy has slowed slightly in 215, as a result of further slowing of emerging economies. Improvement is expected in 216, though there

More information

Eurozone Economic dashboard

Eurozone Economic dashboard Eurozone Economic dashboard Our Economic Dashboard is designed to help investors understand the true state of the eurozone economy. It is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future

More information

4. Supply and Demand Developments

4. Supply and Demand Developments 4. Supply and Demand Developments The fourth-quarter national accounts data are consistent with the outlook presented in the January Inflation Report. After growing temporarily at a slower pace in the

More information

Currency Intervention and Forex Reserves the Czech Perspective

Currency Intervention and Forex Reserves the Czech Perspective Currency Intervention and Forex Reserves the Czech Perspective Mojmír Hampl Vice-Governor, Czech National Bank 8 th Annual NATIONAL ALM Asia Conference 8 July 2015, Raffles Hotel Singapore Outline Key

More information

Contents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11

Contents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 The Deloitte CFO Survey 2014 Q4 Results 2 Contents Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4 General economic environment 5 Market conditions and the economy 6 Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 A note on methodology

More information

The Vietnamese Real Estate Market (in minutes)

The Vietnamese Real Estate Market (in minutes) The Vietnamese Real Estate Market (in minutes) What is really happening? Presented by: ADAM BURY Senior Manager, Research & Consulting CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. Wednesday 21 st March, 2012 What

More information

Investment Department

Investment Department Investment Department June 2012 FINANCIAL MARKETS REPORT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Czech Republic In June consumer prices grew by 3.5 percent on a year-on-year basis after the growth by 3.2 percent in

More information

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. 3rd Quarter of 2015

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. 3rd Quarter of 2015 The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters 3rd Quarter of 215 July 215 Content 1 SPF short-term inflation expectations revised upwards 1 2 Longer-term inflation expectations for 22 at 1.9% 3 3 Real GDP

More information

ARIMA AND PHILLIPS CURVES IN FINDING THE CZECH POTENTIAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

ARIMA AND PHILLIPS CURVES IN FINDING THE CZECH POTENTIAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT ARIMA AND PHILLIPS CURVES IN FINDING THE CZECH POTENTIAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT Ondřej Šimpach, Helena Chytilová Key words: inflation rate, unemployment rate, ARIMA, Phillips curve, forecast Abstract The

More information

Buy Pitch. Financial Institutions Group (FIG) Darly Bendo, Lynn Hu, Chris Martone, Ray Yang Wednesday, October 30 th, 2013

Buy Pitch. Financial Institutions Group (FIG) Darly Bendo, Lynn Hu, Chris Martone, Ray Yang Wednesday, October 30 th, 2013 Buy Pitch Financial Institutions Group (FIG) Darly Bendo, Lynn Hu, Chris Martone, Ray Yang Wednesday, October 30 th, 2013 Disclaimer The analyses and conclusions of the Western Investment Club ( WIC")

More information

International Compendium: Labour Market Theme

International Compendium: Labour Market Theme International Compendium: Labour Market Theme Coverage: International Date: 24 April 2014 Geographical Area: UK Theme: Labour Market Introduction The International Compendium consists of three themes;

More information

Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland

Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international

More information

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research Fixed Income 2015 Update Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research 1 Fed: Slow and Low 2015 Fixed Income Outlook 2 Yield Curve Flattening 3

More information

DenizBank Economic Update

DenizBank Economic Update Economy Financial Markets Banking Sector Focus The Central Bank is Still Dovish Economic Research and Strategy Saruhan Özel, Ph.D. Ercan Ergüzel Berke Gümüş Doğukan Ulusoy 1 External Sector Growth Economy

More information

Economic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015

Economic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015 Economic Data September 30, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -4.90% 20.40% GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 3 5 7 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.50%

More information

Consumer prices and the money supply

Consumer prices and the money supply Consumer prices and the money supply Annual rise. Per cent. -year moving average Money supply Consumer prices - - 9 9 9 96 98 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen.

More information

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn

More information

Foreign Currency Market in IRAN Overview & Forecast

Foreign Currency Market in IRAN Overview & Forecast Research, Planning and Budgeting Division Economic Research Unit Feb. 2016 Foreign Currency Market in IRAN Overview & Forecast Q4-2015 No4 Research, Planning and Budgeting Division Economic Research Unit

More information

DenizBank Economic Update

DenizBank Economic Update November, 211 Economy Financial Markets Banking Sector Focus Current Account Deficit Worries Unfounded Economic Research and Strategy Saruhan Özel, Ph.D. Ercan Ergüzel Berke Gümüş Doğukan Ulusoy 1 External

More information

Private Sector Employment Indicator, Quarter 1 2015 (February 2015 to April 2015)

Private Sector Employment Indicator, Quarter 1 2015 (February 2015 to April 2015) STATISTICAL RELEASE Date: 14 July 2015 Status: Experimental Official Statistics Coverage: England; Regions Private Sector Employment Indicator, Quarter 1 2015 (February 2015 to April 2015) 1. Introduction

More information

OTP Bank 2006 preliminary results. Investor Presentation

OTP Bank 2006 preliminary results. Investor Presentation OTP Bank 26 preliminary results Investor Presentation Presented by: Dr. László Urbán, CFO March, 27 Macroeconomic environment and financial intermediary 3-7 Financial performance (consolidated, IFRS) 9-17

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan Stronger Data Lead to Upward Revisions in Purchase Originations Forecast for 2015 and 2016 MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: July

More information

Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia

Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudaeva, Ph.D., First Deputy Governor Geneva, February 25 2 Inflation Targeting in Russia: Motivation & Challenges Motivation: Unanchored inflation Expectations

More information

Economic outlook 1/2016. Global economy grows, but outlook is uncertain s. 3

Economic outlook 1/2016. Global economy grows, but outlook is uncertain s. 3 Economic outlook 1/216 ELECTRONICS AND ELECTROTECHNICAL INDUSTRY MECHANICAL ENGINEERING METALS INDUSTRY CONSULTING ENGINEERING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Global and Finnish Economic Outlook Global economy

More information

Postbank Group Interim Management Statement as of September 30, 2013

Postbank Group Interim Management Statement as of September 30, 2013 Postbank Group Interim Management Statement as of September 30, 2013 Preliminary Remarks Macroeconomic Development Business Performance Preliminary Remarks This document is an interim management statement

More information

Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy

Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy If the recent weakness of the renminbi persists, it is likely to have a positive direct impact

More information

MANDATORY RESERVES THE MAIN TOOL OF THE ROMANIAN MONETARY POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF EU AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

MANDATORY RESERVES THE MAIN TOOL OF THE ROMANIAN MONETARY POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF EU AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT MANDATORY RESERVES THE MAIN TOOL OF THE ROMANIAN MONETARY POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF EU AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Laurentiu Mihailescu doctoral studies Management Prof. Maria Dimitriu, PhD Gabriela Popa

More information

13.8% Inflation-adjusted GDP (billions) Cumulative growth 2009 to Q3 2015. Exhibit 1 Steady U.S. Economic Growth After a Severe Recession $17,000

13.8% Inflation-adjusted GDP (billions) Cumulative growth 2009 to Q3 2015. Exhibit 1 Steady U.S. Economic Growth After a Severe Recession $17,000 Exhibit 1 Steady U.S. Economic Growth After a Severe Recession Inflation-adjusted GDP (billions) $17,000 $16,000 $15,000 $14,000 $13,000 13.8% Cumulative growth 2009 to Q3 2015 $12,000 $11,000 $10,000

More information

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S.

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S. CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST O U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate ver the past few years, U.S. economic activity has remained

More information

Selected parts of the document approved by the Government at its session on 16 January 2002

Selected parts of the document approved by the Government at its session on 16 January 2002 Selected parts of the document approved by the Government at its session on 16 January 2002 Strategy for Dealing with the Exchange Rate Effects of Capital Inflows from Privatisation of State Property and

More information

Spain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015

Spain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 Spain Economic Outlook Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 The outlook one year ago: the risks were to the upside for

More information

Domain House Price Report June Quarter 2015

Domain House Price Report June Quarter 2015 Domain House Price Report June Quarter 2015 Dr Andrew Wilson Senior Economist for the Domain Group Key findings Sydney market reports remarkable growth over June quarter to reach median house price of

More information

Logista Q Results. February 9, 2016

Logista Q Results. February 9, 2016 Logista Q1 2016 Results February 9, 2016 Logista reports Q1 2016 Results Logista announces today its First Quarter Results for 2016. Main highlights: Revenues growing by 2.3% Good performance of Economic

More information

BayernLB posts good operating income of EUR 597 million for the first half of 2009

BayernLB posts good operating income of EUR 597 million for the first half of 2009 BayernLB posts good operating income of EUR 597 million for the first half of 2009 Operating earnings rise to EUR 2,077 million Consolidated net income after taxes reaches EUR 359 million Return on equity

More information

Flash Comment Euro area: resilient PMIs the recovery should continue

Flash Comment Euro area: resilient PMIs the recovery should continue Investment Research General Market Conditions 23 August 2016 Flash Comment Euro area: resilient PMIs the recovery should continue The euro area PMI figures for August were little changed compared with

More information

Nivesh Currency. From December, Weekly Change & Technical levels. Currency against U.S. dollar. Foreign exchange reserves, in billion $

Nivesh Currency. From December, Weekly Change & Technical levels. Currency against U.S. dollar. Foreign exchange reserves, in billion $ Nivesh Currency From 26-30 December, 2016 Important Highlights BOJ kept its benchmark lending rate negative and unchanged at - 0.1% and its 10-year Japanese government bond yield target at around zero.

More information

Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern

Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness,

More information

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016 Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global World GDP is forecast to grow only 2.4% in 2016, weighed down by emerging market weakness and increasing uncertainty. 3 Eurozone The modest eurozone

More information

New Monetary Policy Challenges

New Monetary Policy Challenges New Monetary Policy Challenges 63 Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 2013, 1, pp. 63-67 Received: 5 December 2012; accepted: 4 January 2013 UDC: 336.74 Alexey V. Ulyukaev * New Monetary Policy

More information

Mexico s Latest Poverty Stats

Mexico s Latest Poverty Stats Mexico s Latest Poverty Stats By Christopher Wilson and Gerardo Silva In July, Mexico s National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL) released new statistics on poverty in

More information