7 Hypothesis testing - one sample tests

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1 7 Hypothesis testing - one sample tests 7.1 Introduction Definition 7.1 A hypothesis is a statement about a population parameter. Example A hypothesis might be that the mean age of students taking MAS113X is 19 greater than years. If it is not true what is the alternative hypothesis? Writing µ for the mean age the two hypotheses are H 0 : µ 19.0 H 1 : µ > 19.0 Definition 7.2 The two complementary hypotheses in a hypothesis testing problem are called the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. They are denoted by H 0 and H 1, respectively. If θ denotes a population parameter, the general format of the null and alternative hypotheses are H 0 : θ Θ 0 H 1 : θ Θ c 0 where Θ 0 is a subset of the parameter space Θ and Θ c 0 is its complement. Thus in the age example, formally Θ = (0, ), Θ 0 = (0, 19], Θ c 0 = (19, ). Example A null hypothesis might be that the weight of jam in a jar is 1kg. The alternative might be that the weight is not 1kg. Values less than 1kg and greater than 1kg are both covered by our alternative hypothesis. Formally Θ = (0, ), Θ 0 = {1}, Θ c 0 = (0, ) \ {1}. How do we verify a hypothesis H 0? Suppose we have collected some data. Do they support the null hypothesis or contradict it? We need a criterion, based on the collected data, which will help us answer the question. 1

2 Definition 7.3 A hypothesis test is a rule that specifies for which sample values the decision is made to reject H 0, i.e. accept H 1, and for which sample values not to reject H 0. Typically, a hypothesis test is specified in terms of a test statistic T (X 1,..., X n ), a function of a random sample. For example, for the age of the class a test might specify that H 0 is to be rejected if a value of X is greater than This defines a rejection region or critical region as {(x 1,..., x n ) : x > 19.5} the set of sample points which give the value of the test statistic T (X 1,..., X n ) = X bigger than The compliment of the rejection region is called the acceptance region. Here it is {(x 1,..., x n ) : x 19.5} 7.2 Type I and Type II errors The decision to reject or not to reject the null hypothesis is based on a test statistic computed from values of a random sample. Hence such a decision is subject to error because of sampling variation. Two kinds of error may be made when testing hypotheses. 1. If the null hypothesis is rejected when it is true. 2. If the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is false. H 0 is true H 0 is false Not reject H 0 No error Type II error Reject H 0 Type I error No error We denote the probabilities of Type I and Type II errors by α = P (type I error) = P (reject H 0 H 0 is true) β = P (type II error) = P (not reject H 0 H 0 is false) 2

3 We would like to have test procedures which make both kinds of errors small. We define the power of the test as 1 β. Thus a test has high power if the probability of rejecting a false null hypothesis is large. In this course we shall concentrate on specifying α. The power can be used to compare two tests with the same α to see which is more powerful (better). It can also be used to decide how large a sample size should be used. Such problems will be discussed in Fundamentals of Statistics II. The probability of a type I error, α, is often called the significance level of the test. It is controlled by the location of the rejection or critical region. So it can be set as small as required. Often α is taken to be 0.05 or Of course if we choose a small α then β may be large. 7.3 Tests concerning the mean Test for a mean when the variance is known We are interested in testing the null hypothesis H 0 : µ = µ 0. We begin by assuming that the alternative hypothesis is H 1 : µ µ 0. Let X 1,..., X n be a random sample from a population X, and let where µ is unknown and σ 2 is known. E[X] = µ Var[X] = σ 2 There are two cases to consider. If the population X is normal then we know that X N(µ, σ 2 /n). If the population is not normal but X has finite mean and variance then for n large In either case we know that X N(µ, σ 2 /n). Z = X µ σ/ n N(0, 1) 3

4 exactly in case 1 and approximately in case 2. If the null hypothesis is true, i.e. µ = µ 0 then Z = X µ 0 σ/ n N(0, 1) Given a sample we can calculate the observed x and since we know all the other terms an observed value of z. If the null hypothesis is true z should be close to zero. Large values of z would tend to contradict the hypothesis. Suppose we find the value z α/2 such that P (Z > z α/2 ) = α/2. By the symmetry of the standard normal distribution P (Z < z α/2 ) = α/2. If we set the rejection region as {z : z < z α/2 z > z α/2 } then the probability of a type I error is the probability that Z lies in the rejection region when the null hypothesis is true and this is exactly α. The rejection region, for this alternative hypothesis, consists of the two tails of the standard normal distribution and for this reason we call it a two-tailed test. Note this test is often called a z-test. Example Drills being manufactured are supposed to have a mean length of 4cm. From past experience we know the standard deviation is equal to 1cm and the lengths are normally distributed. A random sample of 10 drills had a mean of 4.5cm. Test the hypothesis that the mean is 4.0 with α = We have H 0 : µ = 4.0 versus H 1 : µ 4.0 We know that X N ( µ, 1 ) 10 4

5 so if H 0 is true The observed value of Z is Z = X 4 1/10 N(0, 1) /10 = 1.58 For a 2 sided test with α = 0.05 the rejection region is {z : z > 1.96}. Since z = 1.58 we do not reject H 0 at the 5% level. Suppose now our alternative is H 1 : µ > µ 0. Our null is H 0 : µ µ 0 but we use the value least favourable to H 0, i.e. µ 0 as the assumed representative value from H 0. Large values of X will give evidence against H0, so our rejection region is given by {z : z > z α } where P (Z > z α ) = α. Similarly for an alternative H 1 : µ < µ 0 the region will be {z : z < z α } and by symmetry z α = z α. Example An advertisement for a certain brand of cigarettes claimed that on average there is no more than 18mg of nicotine per cigarette. A test of 12 cigarettes gave a sample mean of x = Assuming σ 2 = 4 test this claim with a significance level of α = We have H 0 : µ = 18.0 versus H 1 : µ > 18.0 We know that so if H 0 is true X N ( µ, 4 ) 12 Z = X 18 1/3 N(0, 1). The observed value of Z is /3 = For a 1 sided test with α = 0.05 the rejection region is {z : z > }. Since z = we can reject H 0 at the 5% level. Note that if we had chosen α = 0.02 then z α = we we would fail to reject H 0 at the 2% significance level 5

6 7.3.2 Test for a normal mean when variance is unknown Let X 1,..., X n be a random sample from a N(µ, σ 2 ) population. We now assume the values of both µ and σ 2 are unknown. We want to test H 0 : µ = µ 0. When σ 2 is known we have that Z = ( X µ 0 ) n σ N(0, 1). When σ 2 is unknown we estimate it by S 2 the sample variance defined by S 2 (Xi = X) 2. n 1 The distribution of this statistic is no longer standard normal. In fact T = ( X µ 0 ) n S t n 1 a student t distribution with n 1 degrees of freedom. Note the degrees of freedom is the same as the divisor in the sample variance. Table 9 in New Cambridge Statistical Tables gives the distribution function of T and Table 10 gives the percentage points. A t distribution has heavier tails than a normal distribution. A t with 1 degree of freedom is also called a Cauchy distribution. As the degrees of freedom tends to infinity a t distribution tends to a standard normal. We call the resulting test a t test or one sample t test. If the alternative hypothesis is H 1 : µ µ 0 then I shall write the critical region as {t : t > t n 1 (α/2)}. Example A pharmaceutical manufacturer is concerned about the impurity concentration in batches of drug and is anxious that the mean impurity doesn t exceed 2.5%. It is known that impurity concentration follows a normal distribution. A random sample of 10 batches had the following concentrations Test at a significance level α = 0.05 that the population mean concentration is at most

7 Our null hypothesis is H 0 : µ = 2.5 versus an alternative H 1 : µ > 2.5. The test statistic is T = ( X 2.5) n S t n 1 if H 0 is true. Now x = 2.27 and s 2 = so the observed value of T is t = ( ) = For α = 0.05 with 9 degrees of freedom the critical region is {t : t > 1.833} and so we fail to reject H 0 at the 5% significance level. 7.4 P values We discussed the use of P values when we looked at goodness of fit tests. They can be useful as a hypothesis test with a fixed significance level α does not give any indication of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. The P value depends on whether we have a one-sided or two-sided test. Consider a one sided test of H 0 : µ = µ 0 versus H 1 : µ > µ 0. Assuming the population variance is unknown so that we are using a t test the P value is P (T > t obs ) where t obs is the observed value of t. For H 1 : µ < µ 0 the P value is P (T < t obs ). For a two sided test with H 1 : µ µ 0 it is P ( T > t obs ) = 2P (T > t obs ). In each case we can think of the P value as the probability of obtaining a value of the test statistic more extreme than we did observe assuming that H 0 is true. What is regarded as more extreme depends on the alternative hypothesis. If the P value is small that is evidence that H 0 may not be true. It is useful to have a scale of evidence to help us interpret the size of the P value. There is no agreed scale but the following may be useful as a first indication: 7

8 P value Interpretation P > 0.10 No evidence against H < P < 0.10 Weak evidence against H < P < 0.05 Moderate evidence against H < P < 0.01 Strong evidence against H 0 P < Very strong or overwhelming evidence against H 0 Note that the P value is the smallest level of significance that would lead to rejection of the null hypothesis. 7.5 Test of hypothesis on the variance Let X 1,..., X n be a random sample from a population which is N(µ, σ 2 ) where µ and σ 2 are unknown. We consider now how to test a hypothesis about the population variance σ 2. We shall present the results without justification. To test H 0 : σ 2 = σ0 2 versus H 1 : σ 2 σ0 2 we use the test statistic W = (n 1)S2 σ 2 0 χ 2 n 1 if H 0 is true. Note the χ 2 ν distribution has mean ν. Since the χ 2 ν distribution is defined on (0, ) and is skewed two-sided rejection regions are more complicated than before. The rejection region is {w : w > χ 2 n 1(α/2) w < χ 2 n 1(1 (α/2))}. For example if α = 0.05 and n = 9 then from Table 8 we have χ 2 8(0.025) = χ 2 8(0.975) = and we would only reject H 0 at the 5% significance level if the observed value of W was outside the interval [2.180, 17.53]. Similarly for a one-sided test, for example if H 1 : σ 2 > σ0 2 then we would reject H 0 at the α significance level if w > χ 2 n 1(α) 8

9 Example It is important that the variance of the percentage impurity levels of a chemical don t exceed 4.0. A random sample of 20 consignments had a sample variance of Test the hypothesis that the population variance is at most 4.0 at a 5% level of significance and find the P value. Our null and alternative hypotheses are The test statistic H 0 : σ 2 = 4.0 H 1 : σ 2 > 4.0 W = (n 1)S2 4.0 χ 2 19 if H 0 is true. The observed value of W is w = = From the tables χ 2 19(0.05) = Since our observed value is less than this we fail to reject H 0 at the 5% significance level. The P value is P (W > ). Now from Table 7 with ν = 19 P (W < 26) = and P (W < 27) = so using linear interpolation P (W < ) ( ) = Thus P (W > ) = = Using our scale of evidence there is no evidence against H 0. For a two sided alternative the P value is found by multiplying the corresponding P value by 2. Example Take the data in the last example but suppose that we want the variance to equal 4.0. Now from the tables χ 2 19(0.025) = and χ 2 19(0.975) = and as our observed value lies between these value we fail to reject H 0. The P value is = Test of hypothesis on a proportion Suppose we have a random sample of size n consisting of observations from a Bernoulli distribution with probability of success p. Then we know that X = n i=1 X i has a Binomial distribution with parameters n and p. To test the hypothesis that p = p 0 we can use the test statistic Z = X np 0 np0 (1 p 0 ) N(0, 1) 9

10 if H 0 is true so long as n is large by the Central Limit Theorem. The rejection region depends on the alternative hypothesis as before. Example In a random sample of 180 voters, 75 expressed support for University top-up fees. Test the hypothesis that at least 50% of all voters support the measure. Use a significance level of α = Our null and alternative hypotheses are H 0 : p = 0.5 H 1 : p < 0.5 The test statistic Z = X np 0 np0 (1 p 0 ) N(0, 1) if H 0 is true. The observed value of Z is z = = = For a one-sided test at the 5% significance level the rejection region is {z : z < } and so we can reject H 0 at the 5% level. 7.7 Confidence intervals Often we may be asked to estimate the population mean µ rather than test a hypothesis about it. Or we may have performed a test and found evidence against the null hypothesis, casting doubt on our original hypothesised value. We should give an estimate of uncertainty along with our best estimate of µ, which is x, the sample mean. One measure of uncertainty is the standard error of the mean, σ/ n if σ 2 is known or s/ n if it is not. Equivalently, but perhaps more usefully we can give a confidence interval. This is derived as follows: Assume that the variance σ 2 is known. Using the result for the sampling distribution of X we know that X µ σ/ n N(0, 1) it follows that P ( 1.96 X ) µ σ/ n 1.96 =

11 cross-multiplying, we get P ( 1.96σ/ n X µ 1.96σ/ n ) = 0.95 Rearranging, we have P ( ) X 1.96σ/ n µ X σ/ n = 0.95 We can say that the random interval ( ) X 1.96σ/ n, X σ/ n has a probability of 0.95 of containing or covering the value of µ, that is, 95% of all samples will give intervals (calculated according to this formula) which contain the true value of the population mean. The corresponding interval with X replaced by x is called a 95% confidence interval for µ. Note that the 95% refers to the random variables X ± 1.96σ/ n, since µ is not a random variable. Nevertheless a confidence interval does give an interval estimate for µ which is more useful than the point estimate x. The confidence interval has another interpretation which shows its connection with hypothesis tests. We saw in practicals 7 and 8 that a number of different null hypotheses were consistent with a given sample. A 95% confidence interval contains all those values for which the P value is greater than or equal to 0.05 in a two sided test of the null hypothesis that the unknown parameter takes that value. Again there is nothing magic in 95% and In general we can find a 100(1 α)% confidence interval and this relates to P values greater than or equal to α. In general when σ 2 is known the 100(1 α)% confidence interval for µ is x ± z α/2 σ/ n. Example Drills being manufactured are supposed to have a mean length of 4cm. From past experience we know the standard deviation is equal to 1cm and the lengths are normally distributed. A random sample of 10 drills had a mean of 4.5cm. Find 95% and 99% confidence intervals for the population mean. 11

12 The 95% confidence interval is given by x ± 1.96σ/ n = 4.5 ± = 4.5 ± 0.62 = (3.88, 5.12). The 99% confidence interval is given by x ± σ/ n = 4.5 ± = 4.5 ± 0.81 = (3.69, 5.31) Note that this means we would fail to reject any µ (3.69, 5.31) at the 1% significance level. When σ 2 is unknown we replace it by S 2 and the corresponding percentage point of the t n 1 distribution. Thus a 100(1 α)% confidence interval for µ is x ± t n 1 (α/2)s/ n. Example Drills being manufactured are supposed to have a mean length of 4cm. From past experience we know the lengths are normally distributed. A random sample of 10 drills had a mean of 4.5cm and sample variance 1.2. Find 95% and 99% confidence intervals for the population mean. The 95% confidence interval is given by x ± 2.262S/ n = ± = 4.5 ± 0.78 = (3.72, 5.28). The 99% confidence interval is given by x ± 3.25S/ n = 4.5 ± 3.25 = 4.5 ± 1.13 = (3.37, 5.63)

13 A confidence interval for σ 2 is ( ) (n 1)s 2 χ 2 n 1(α/2), (n 1)s 2. χ 2 n 1(1 α/2) Example Drills being manufactured are supposed to have a mean length of 4cm. From past experience we know the lengths are normally distributed. A random sample of 10 drills had a mean of 4.5cm and sample variance 1.2. Find 95% and 99% confidence intervals for the population variance. The 95% confidence interval is given by ( ) ( (n 1)s 2 (n 1)s , = , ) = (0.568, 4.000). The 99% confidence interval is given by ( ) ( (n 1)s 2 (n 1)s , = , ) = (0.458, 6.225). 7.8 A confidence interval for a Poisson mean Suppose we have collected data from a Poisson distribution mean λ. As long as the mean is large we can use the normal approximation to the Poisson to give a confidence interval. A suggestion is that for λ 10 a 95% confidence interval will give a reasonable result but for a 99% confidence interval we should have λ 20. Suppose n Poisson observations drawn at random from a Poisson distribution of mean λ have sample mean r. Since the mean and variance of the Poisson are both λ we have that ( r λ) λ/n N(0, 1). An approximate 95% confidence interval could therefore be written as r r ± 1.96 n 13

14 replacing the λ in the square root by its estimate. However we can do better than this. The 95% limits are found by requiring that r λ λ/n 1.96 Let us solve this inequality. We will write 1.96 as c and recognise that we could replace 1.96 by the appropriate value for a 100(1 α)% confidence interval. To do this consider the corresponding equality r λ λ/n = c square to give a quadratic in λ: n( r λ) 2 = c 2 λ, nλ 2 (2n r + c 2 )λ + n r 2 = 0. The two roots of this quadratic will give the upper and lower confidence limits for the true value of λ. The limits are λ = 1 [2n r + c 2 ± (2n r + c 2n 2 ) 2 4n 2 r ] 2 = r + c2 2n ± c c2 + 4n r. 2n Example In a traffic survey on a motorway, the mean number of vehicles passing per minute for 1 hour was 18. Find a 95% confidence interval for the true mean rate of vehicles passing per minute. We apply the result with c = We have r = 18 and n = 60. So the confidence limits are λ = ± = ± = (16.96, 19.10) The limits using r as the estimate of the variance are r ± 1.96 r/n so are 18 ± = (16.93, 19.07). These are close to the better limits as n is large. 14

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