Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users

Transcription

1 Contract number SUCRE/2009/ The Ministry of Energy and Water Development Republic of Zambia Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users Final Report 24 April 2009 Disclaimer This Report was prepared with the financial assistance of the European Commission The views expressed in this report are those of the consultants and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission

2 COWI A/S Parallelvej 2 DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby Denmark Tel Fax wwwcowicom The Ministry of Energy and Water Development Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users Final Report 24 April 2009 COWI A/S together with SWECO International AB

3 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 1 Table of Contents List of abbreviations 3 1 Introduction, objectives and acknowledgement 4 11 Objectives 4 12 Acknowledgement 5 2 Conclusions and recommendations 6 21 Water availability 6 22 Economic value of water 7 23 Environmental and climate change issues 8 24 Water resources management and monitoring 9 25 Recommendation for national strategic planning 9 3 Assessment of the water resource balance scenarios in the selected catchments Description of the catchment areas Review of previous studies Water resources in the three catchments Water use in the three catchments Water balances in the three catchments Effects of climate change Conclusions on water availability 31 4 Analytical evaluation of the economic value of water and possible water pricing in the selected catchments Economic value of water in its different uses Method and data collection Kafue Flats of Kafue River Catchment Kalungwishi river catchment Upper Chambeshi river catchment Pricing policies for water 42

4 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 2 5 Environmental impact and climate change Environmental impacts Climate change 45 6 Water management and monitoring systems that could optimise the use of water in the selected catchments Water resources management Monitoring Conclusion 49 Annex 1-Water Availability Annex 2-Terms of Reference Annex 3-References Annex 4-List of people met

5 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 3 List of abbreviations Danida Danish Development Assistance DWA Department of Water Affairs ERB Energy Regulatory Board ERC Estimated Retrievable Content GRZ Government of Zambia GTZ German Technical Cooperation GWh Gigawatt hour GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management KE Kalungwishi Estate KWh Kilowatt hour LWSC Lusaka Water & Sewerage Company MEWD Ministry of Energy and Water Development NWASCO National Water Supply and Sanitation Council OPPPI Office for Promoting Private Power Investment WB The World Bank ZESCO Zambia Electricity Supply Company

6 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 4 1 Introduction, objectives and acknowledgement Although Zambia is considered to have abundant water resources, development in the sectors of irrigated agriculture, tourism, hydropower generation and drinking water supply coupled with a rising and predominantly urban population is exerting pressure on the available water resources and particularly in the Kafue River Catchment Water requirements for specific water users have been determined and allocated through a system of water rights applications for the respective sector users and for preservation of Zambia s aquatic environments Water has all along been managed on a sectoral basis, and all legislation and policies tend to reflect a sectoral bias Hydro power generation has always been accorded the highest priority due to power requirements for copper mining activities and other local industries The EU sugar sector reform of 2006 which previously ensured duty free access of Zambian sugar quotas at guaranteed prices will still allow duty free Zambian export to EU but no longer at guaranteed prices Thus an adaptation strategy for the Zambian sugar industry has been developed including measures such as: The expansion of sugar production through outgrower schemes Diversification based on ethanol production for fuel blending and gel fuel and encouragement of the co-generation of electricity Development of a sugar trade policy and cost reduction of sugar trade routes The EC is supporting the adaptation strategy for the Zambian sugar industry through accompanying measures for sugar protocol countries for which this study is an integrated part 11 Objectives The objectives of the study are as follows: Overall objective: To contribute to the possible expansion of sugar production through outgrower schemes Specific objectives: (i) To identify present and future opportunities and constraints in water resource availability and its utilisation for sugar cane production (ii) To make policy recommendations that will optimize access to water resources for sugar cane production after due consideration of strategic and competing economic demands for the water, and particularly in the context of balanced hydropower generation

7 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 5 The study areas include the following catchments: The Kafue Flats of the Kafue River catchment The Kalungwishi River catchment The Upper Chambeshi River catchment 12 Acknowledgement The consultants would like to extend their appreciation to all public and private stakeholders who have provided guidance, discussed main issues related to the study and made available useful information and data which have greatly facilitated the assignment

8 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 6 2 Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions and recommendations will be presented in accordance with the thematic areas of the chapters and followed by some overall national recommendations 21 Water availability Zambia has the water resources for expansion of both hydropower and large-scale irrigation Through careful and strategic planning it is possible on a national scale to optimise development to allow development in both sectors without conflicts The water availability study has showed that there is a distinct difference in water availability in the selected catchments The Chambeshi and Kalungwishi Rivers are in an area with higher runoff because of higher rainfall and lower evaporation and with almost no present water use compared to the Kafue Flats Both Chambeshi and Kalungwishi River basins can be said to have an abundance of water and are, from a water availability perspective, good options for development Both these rivers have the potential to sustain large expansion in irrigation and several sites in the Kalungwishi have been identified to have hydropower potential Even in the Kafue Flats there has up to now been no real conflict between the two major users, irrigation and hydropower The reason is that power demand has historically not been very high and that both the Kafue Gorge and the major sugar cane estates in the area have had limitation in their technical capacity This has prevented both users of fully utilising their water rights The water balance analysis of the Kafue Flats for future conditions has, however, confirmed a potential conflict between hydropower production and sugar cane production If power demand is growing nationally and internationally, and necessary investments are made in transboundary transmission lines, expansion of sugar cane in Kafue Flats will limit how far ZESCO can increase the average energy and firm power production of the Kafue Gorge On the other hand, Kafue Gorge is not the only alternative for future growth in hydropower production in Zambia and the increased power demand is associated with considerable lead times for improvements of the transmission lines The water balance analysis indicated that a further limited expansion of irrigated sugar cane in the Kafue Flats is possible without significantly reducing the present energy production at the Kafue Gorge and maintaining the level of production it was originally designed for

9 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 7 The overall conclusion from the water availability study is therefore that several options for development exist in which both hydropower and irrigated sugar cane can be expanded on the national scale The key to optimise development and avoiding conflicts on the local scale is a longterm strategic plan for water resources development and building institutional capacity for associated water resources management to implement the strategy The long-term strategic plan may include a review of existing water rights in the Kafue Flats, which requires negotiations with major water users 22 Economic value of water The economic value 1 of water in its uses for hydropower generation (consumptive) and for water extraction for sugar cane production has been estimated in accordance with the change in net income method The method has been discussed with ZESCO 2, OPPPI 3 and with the sugar industry who all also provided updated data The estimation has been made based on hydropower and irrigated sugar cane production in Kafue Catchment Table 21 Summary of estimated economic prices of water in different uses in Kafue Catchment Hydropower: Consumptive Non-consumptive Sugarcane irrigation: Consumptive (extraction) 003 Economic value (US$/m 3) The economic value of consumptive raw water use for hydropower is significantly larger than for extracted water for irrigated sugar cane production For hydropower the economic price variation has been estimated from US$/m 3 dependent on the economic value of electricity ( US$/KWh) to be compared with an estimated economic value of water for irrigated sugar cane production of 003 US$/m 3 Thus in a case of water scarcity and competition between hydropower generation and irrigated sugar cane production the economic value of water would favour water allocation for hydropower It is important to stress however that the economic value of water should not be the only factor to take into consideration in such a situation A comprehensive comparative analysis would need to be made where also factors such as the overall importance of hydropower for economic development, the export value of sugar and employment generation in the sugar sector should be accounted Furthermore possibilities to save water from the sugar sector by introducing more efficient irrigation technology should be taken into account prior to a possible decision to transfer 1 The economic value of water in its specific uses represents the economic welfare or contribution to the society by specific use (hydropower, irrigation etc) 2 ZESCO is a 100 % state owned vertically integrated utility which generates, transmits, distributes and supplies power to a wide spectrum of consumers The company also engages in the export and import of power with other Southern Africa Power Pool countries 3 OPPPI-Office for promoting private power investment is in charge of promoting private sector participation in undertaking investments in power industry through facilitation of investment studies, contract negotiations etc

10 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 8 water from irrigated agriculture to the hydropower sector which generates the highest economic return The estimated economic prices of water for use in hydropower and irrigation of sugar cane is a strategic issue The preparation of water prices or water charges on the other hand is a policy and a financial issue Thus the economic value of water is not a basis for which to prepare water price policies The water pricing is an issue for the Water Resources Management Authority When the annual budget for its operation has been prepared a cost sharing arrangement will be made between its water user members and this cost sharing represents an implicit water pricing 23 Environmental and climate change issues Development of both hydropower and sugar cane irrigation has effects on the environment Dam development and water abstractions alter the flow regime and thereby affect ecological processes and stops fish migration along rivers Agriculture is further associated with leaching of nutrients and chemicals and increased erosion if not properly operated Of the three catchments the Kafue Flats has the most sensitive environment The flats are considered important wetland areas with rare and endemic species and include two National Parks designated as Ramsar sites On the other hand, considering the low utilisation of the Chambeshi and Kalungwishi rivers large parts of these catchments can be classified as more or less pristine areas The Kalungwishi River is known for its beautiful waterfalls The present study has indicated that the conditioned environmental flow from Itezhi-Tezhi, including the freshet, can be met even with a limited expansion of agriculture or hydropower However, historic records have indicated that more capacity for optimal reservoir operations is needed to see actual implementation of the environmental flow releases Irrespective of location, water resources development requires careful planning to minimise negative impacts on the environment All projects must undergo detailed impact assessment to optimise the development and find acceptable mitigation measures According to the latest findings climate change will not have a significant effect on the water resources of Zambia Average rainfall is generally believed to increase slightly, while variations between years will increase No significant effect of climate change on yields of the existing and future reservoirs in Zambia is projected Uncertainties in the climate change projections are, however, large as stated by the recent studies However, the increased variability in rainfall will probably worsen the already difficult situation for subsistence agriculture Rainfall variability has significant negative impact on the agricultural GDP To mitigate the dependence on rainfall in a more variable climate, development of dams and irrigation infrastructure is crucial The development of sugar cane outgrower schemes are thus good examples of adaptation measures for meeting the, probably increasing climatic variability

11 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 9 24 Water resources management and monitoring From a water resources planning point of view with focus on water allocation the enacted Water Bill appears to provide sufficient policy guidelines to optimise water management and utilisation in the catchments of the country The Water Bill is clearly envisaging a situation of competition for scarce water resources between competing water users such as hydropower generation and irrigation of sugar cane production It is therefore recommended that tools such as the assessment of water balance and the assessment of the economic price of water should be made available for the Water Resources Management Authority in allocating scarce water between competing sectors The current DWA information system is outdated and has limitations in serving as a basis for sound decisions on water resources It is therefore highly recommended to support the ongoing development of creating a new water resources information system with focus on the collection, exchange, processing, monitoring and reporting of all data Information should include data on hydrogeology, hydrology, water quality, meteorology as well as data on water use and the interrelationship between water resource utilisation, the economy and the environment; Capacity building is required not only in the handling of a new water act but particularly in managing a new information management system For the allocation of water between competing users for scarce water sources it is recommended to also build capacity to prepare water balances based on models and undertake subsequent economic estimation of the value of water in its specific use; It is recommended to put enforcement measures in place in connection with more effective collection of water charges, detection of illegal users without permits and users exceeding water quantities in permits and sanctions against users who have violated the regulations Specifically this study has identified the need for a comprehensive water resources and water balance assessment for the entire Kafue River and for an update of the National Water resources Master plan 25 Recommendation for national strategic planning In accordance with the Water Bill, a National Water Resources Strategy and Plan shall be established and regularly updated An important part of this document should be a Water Resources Development Strategy, in which clear guidelines are given on how, when and where investments shall be focussed on the national scale In the absence of an approved Water Act an interim strategy should be established and adopted by the Ministry of Energy and Water Development guided by the National Development Plan and water balance studies Based on the findings of this study the Consultants make the following recommendations for the national strategy in regards to hydropower and sugar cane irrigation development: The power production at Kafue Gorge should be continued aiming for 6,150 GWh/year of average energy production, which will allow for limited agricultural development in the Kafue Flats, for environmental conservation of the Kafue Flats and for increased urban water supply to Lusaka;

12 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 10 To be prepared for national growth in peak power demand the Itezhi-Tezhi Hydropower scheme should be developed as first priority This power scheme is not significantly affected by development in other sectors and has small environmental impacts It also has short lead time for implementation Sugar cane irrigation should be developed through outgrower schemes to utilise the currently available capacity of existing sugar factories and irrigation infrastructure This includes identified areas adjacent to the Kalungwishi Estate in the Chambeshi River basin and areas adjacent to Zambia Sugar Company and Consolidated Farming in the Kafue Flats Small-scale outgrower development will locally increase the livelihood and is in line with climate change adaptation needs Expansion of irrigation and hydropower in the Kafue Flats should be accompanied with improved water resources management in the whole of Kafue River aiming for improved water demand management for the irrigation schemes, established preparedness for drought situations and optimal environmental flow releases As part of the improved water resources management is to negotiate new water rights for the Kafue Flats The water resources management requires immediate initiation of basin-wide and comprehensive water resources and water balance studies for the Kafue River This is essential since almost the entire GDP is produced within the Kafue River basin To meet the long-term growth in power demand because of population growth and gradual increased access to international markets trough extension of the transmission networks, development of the Kariba North Bank and the Kafue Lower Gorge should continue as the second priority for hydropower expansion The Kafue Gorge gives significant growth in energy production as well as peaking power, while Kariba North Bank gives additional peaking power Both projects have limited environmental impacts Depending on the regional and international market of sugar, investigations for large scale sugar cane irrigation should be conducted in the upper Chambeshi River basin The Chambeshi River provides good water resources, relatively good infrastructure through the Great North Road and local know-how through the existing Kalungwishi Estate The Kalungwishi River should be considered as the last priority for development of sugar cane and hydropower development considering the pristine character and the potential ecotourism

13 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 11 3 Assessment of the water resource balance scenarios in the selected catchments 31 Description of the catchment areas The three river basins are located in the central and north-east parts of Zambia (Figure 31) The Lukulu River is a tributary to the Chambeshi joining just downstream of the Mpika-Kasama Road bridge It is not part of the study area defined in the Terms of Reference but has been included since the only sugar cane estate (Kalungwishi Estate) in the Chambeshi system is located in this river KALUNGWISH CHAMBESHI LUKULU KAFUE Figure 31 Locations of the studied catchments, Kafue, Chambeshi, Lukulu and Kalungwishi

14 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users The Kafue River The Kafue River is located in the western part of Zambia and drains 155,948 km 2 (World Bank 2009) before entering the Zambezi River below Kariba Dam The headwaters lie in the northwestern province and drain southwards through the Copperbelt to the Kafue Flats (illustrated in Figures 32 and 33) The Kafue River is the most significant river in Zambia for the national economy as most of the country s mining, industrial and agricultural activities are concentrated within the catchment area Solwezi Kitwe Kasempa Lufupa R Chifumpa Chilenga BUSANGA SWAMPS Luswishi R Machiya Lunga R Lubungu Kafue R Ndola LUKANGA SWAMPS Intern ITEZHI-TEZHI RES Hook KAFUE FLATS KAFUE GORGE RES 10 Kasaka Lusaka Zambezi R Sub-c River Hydro Marsh tow Zimbabwe Figure 32 The Kafue River Source: ZESCO The Kafue Flats, a wetland area estimated at between 7,000 and 15,000 km 2, is a highly valuable environmental system At the lower end of the flats the largest extent of sugar cane production in Zambia is conducted Zambia Sugar Company and outgrowers situated on the southern banks close to Mazabuka Town are the largest single producers of sugarcane in Zambia Consolidated Farming is situated on the northern banks The Kafue flats flood each year, and lag and attenuate flood flows into the Kafue Gorge reservoir The attenuation of water in the extensive wetland system results in considerable evaporation of water The water regime has been altered due to the construction of the Itezhi-Tezhi and Kafue Gorge Dams, which were constructed for the production of hydropower The Kafue flats are thus an extensive and complex hydraulic system and the attenuation and evaporation losses are highly dependant on water levels within the wetland system

15 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 13 Figure 33 Graphic illustration of the Kafue flats The satellite image shows that during the rainy season the whole wetland area is flooded Source: ZESCO The increases in water use from agriculture, industry, and demand for energy in Zambia, coupled with the need for continued environmental sustainability, mean that the Kafue River is being placed under competing water demands The water use in the Kafue Flats can be categorised into four areas: 1 A consumptive use for domestic water supply The majority of domestic water use is for the Lusaka Water and Sewage Company that takes part of its water supply from the Kafue River upstream Kafue Gorge Also other small villages take their water from Kafue, eg Mazabuka that is supplied via the canal built for abstracting water for irrigation at Zambia Sugar Return flow from domestic use is insignificant since Lusaka Water and Sewage Company releases its treated sewage water to another river basin 2 A consumptive use of water for irrigation The majority of the irrigation is for sugar cane, but also for wheat, maize and other crops The two major sugar cane estates Zambia Sugar

16 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 14 and Consolidated Farming abstract water from the Kafue River through canals just upstream of the Kafue Gorge Reservoir Almost all of the irrigated water is lost through evapotranspiration but a small portion is drained back to the Kafue River through drainage canals or through groundwater flow 3 A non-consumptive use of water for hydropower production The existing hydropower plant at Kafue Gorge has a capacity of 900 MW and is used for both base load and peak power production During the last decade the Kafue Gorge has had problems of running at full capacity but an on-going rehabilitation by ZESCO will soon make the power plant operational for 900 MW Future plans exist for installing 120 MW power station at the outflow of the Itezhi-Tezhi reservoir and for a MW power station at Kafue Lower 65 km upstream the confluence with Zambezi (MWH 2008) 4 A non-consumptive use for environmental conservation To preserve some of the natural flooding variation of the Kafue Flats, ZESCO s Water Right for Itezhi-Tezhi is linked with a condition of releasing a freshet of 300 m 3 /s for four weeks during the end of the wet season Furthermore, the Water Right stipulates a minimum flow of 25 m 3 /s downstream of the Itezhi-Tezhi reservoir In the upper parts of the Kafue River the extensive mining in the Copperbelt has effects on the water resources of the river Major towns such as Kitwe and Ndola take the water supply from Kafue and some of the mines abstract water for water supply and industrial use On the other hand, some mines, especially Konkola, do extensive dewatering, which is discharged to the Kafue River The net effect of the artificial influence in the upper part of the Kafue River is therefore an increase in river flow of 5 m 3 /s or 5% of the natural flow at Machiya Ferry (SGAB and SWECO 2004) The historical development of water rights is illustrated in Figure KAFUE RIVER BASIN Consumptive water rights (m3/s) ALL URBAN AND INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK Figure 34 Historical development of consumptive water use In 1978 ZESCO got the right to release 215 m 3 /s from the Itezhi-Tezhi Dam, which would guarantee a minimum of 178 m 3 /s for hydropower production at Kafue Gorge

17 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users The Chambeshi River The Chambeshi River originates in the north-east part of Zambia in the Mbala Highlands (Figure 35) It flows to the south-east and joins the Luapula River that discharges into Lake Mweru Major tributaries in the upper part are the Kalungu, Lubu, Mansha and Lukulu The river catchment at the Mpika-Kasama Road (Chambeshi Old Pontoon) is 37,745 km 2 Just downstream the bridge the Lukulu River with a catchment area of 8,550 km 2 joins the Chambeshi River The water rights record (Water Board 2009) shows a variety of water users for domestic, agricultural and hydropower purposes in the Chambeshi River basin The water rights, however, indicate a generally low level of water utilisation in the river basin The only existing sugar cane producer is the Kalungwishi Estate located in the upper Lupombwe River that is part of the Lukupa River that joins the Lukulu River (see Figure 35) The sugar cane estate abstracts water from a dam to irrigate four centre pivot areas of totally 320 ha (Figure 36) The catchment area of the river at the dam site is approximately 30 km 2, which is only 035% of the Lukulu catchment area Kaputa Mpulungu Mbala Kalungwishi Sugar Cane Estate Nchelenge Mporokoso Chishimba Falls Hydropower Kawambwa Chambeshi Chozi Kalungu Luwingu Luombe Lukulu Lukupa Kasama Lubu Isoka Chambeshi Chinsali Mansha Mansa Samfya Chama Chambeshi Mpika CHILILABOMBWE Luapula Lundazi Figure 35 The Chambeshi and Lukulu catchments The shaded area shows the study area One medium scale hydropower scheme exists in the Luombe River at Chishimba Fall It is a 6 MW power scheme that is linked to the national transmission grid It has basically no storage and works as a run-of-the-river scheme Since it is located in the Luombe River before it joins the Lukulu River there is no conflict between the existing sugar cane production and the hydropower generation

18 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 16 Figure 36 Illustration of the Kalungwishi Estate The grey circles show existing irrigation area that was established after the date of the satellite image The green circles show possible outgrower schemes Source: Struyf and Chuba (2009) 313 The Kalungwishi River The Kalungwishi River flows west in northern Zambia into Lake Mweru (Figure 37) The Kalungwishi River forms part of the boundary between Northern and Luapula Provinces In the downstream part of the river several waterfalls are located (eg the Kundabwika and Kabwelume Falls) According to the water rights record (Water Board 2009) the water use in Kalungwishi is very low The majority of water rights refer to small scale irrigation Two major potential schemes are however identified; one regarding hydropower development in the Kabwelume Falls area in Kalungwishi and one regarding sugar cane production at the Luena/Pambashe tributary The Luena Sugar Cane Scheme was identified already in the 1970s A feasibility study was made by SEI (2000) The proposed agricultural area covers 6,650 ha in the Luena and Lufubu River area with possible future expansion of 10,000 ha in the Luongo River basin to the south The Luongo River is, however, not part of the Kalungwishi River basin since it flows to the Luapula River

19 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 17 Kalungw ishi Lumtomfw e LAKE MWERU Kapako Mof w e Mw ansamila Mbula Mw inshi Itabu Kw ankonko Pansa Mutufuku Chimbofuma Luangw a Potential hydropower site (Kalungwishi Hydropower) Mitamba Matete Luangw a Chikulu Luena Mupoposhi Mw elu Proposed dam site for Luena Pambashe Proposed intake for Luena Lufubu Ngene Kalungw ishi Figure 37 The Kalungwishi catchment Water for irrigation for the 6,650 ha is planned to be taken through a canal from the Lufubu River and through constructing a dam on the Pambashe River (see Figure 37) A study on the development of hydroelectric power on Kalungwishi River in the 1970s found that it was feasible to develop a hydropower scheme that utilises the heads of Lumangwe, Kabwelume and Chimpempe falls of some 140 metres in total (wwwzescocozm) A cascade arrangement with the power stations at Lumangwe and 2 km downstream from Kabwelume sites was identified, which would give a total generation capacity of 110MW with 400GWh firm energy per annum OPPPI currently recommends a project to develop a 210 MW scheme (OPPPI 2009) 32 Review of previous studies The Kafue River has been covered by numerous studies Most recent studies have been focussed on individual matters such as improved environmental flow or development of new hydropower schemes A few studies have, however, made a more comprehensive system analysis taking into account both agricultural and hydropower development of the flats: Although being 15 years old the Institute of Hydrology (1994) study is a relevant study for the purpose of this report Through water balance analysis modelling it confirmed that sugar cane areas up to 17,400 ha could be accommodated in the Kafue Flats under 1994 conditions without reducing the needed firm power production of 430 MW at Kafue Gorge and with less than 1% loss of secondary power generation The Scott Wilson Piésold (2003b) made ten different scenarios of irrigation development in the central and lower Kafue River and simulated the effects on hydropower production These models were then used by the World Bank (2008) to make economic analyses of the different

20 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 18 development The results indicated that from an economic perspective development of 10,000 ha of sugar cane irrigation in the Kafue Flats is only feasible if the Itezhi-Tezhi reservoir is raised The main reason is that the irrigation expansion will limit the potential hydropower production From the previous studies, it is therefore indicated that the historical use of Kafue River as source for irrigation up to year 2008 (which was used as the base year by World Bank 2008) has been possible without affecting the hydropower, while a further large expansion will give significant negative economic effects It does, however, not give any indications for what level of irrigation development the negative impacts will start Considering the importance of the Kafue River for Zambia and its enormous complexity, it is very strange that a full comprehensive water balance analysis have not been made for the entire river basin taking all users perspective into account It is strongly recommended that preparations for such analysis are made as soon as possible One reason for the lack of system analysis of the Kafue River may be the inherited difficulties Many previous studies refer to the large complexity of the river basin and the poor data The complexity stems from both a naturally very complicated hydrology with the swampy areas that creates large evaporation losses and the large manmade influences through the Itezhi-Tezhi and Kafue Gorge reservoirs The hydraulic characteristics of the Kafue Flats make both measurements and water balance calculations difficult Uncertainty in hydrological monitoring data is referred in most previous studies Many of the previous studies have because of the above described complexity used rather crude assumptions when calculating eg incremental runoff between the two dams This is the main reason for the different results obtained and the uncertainties surrounding the issue of water availability in the Kafue Flats Studies that promote more fact finding and improved monitoring are therefore essential for the preparations for a comprehensive water balance analysis of the Kafue River basin The recent studies by the World Bank on irrigation demand in the Kafue flats are therefore very important to get more understanding of actual and future requirements for agriculture (World Bank 2009) Other on-going programmes such as the JICA support to the Water Supply Master Plan for Lusaka, DANIDA s support to monitoring in Kafue as part of the IWRM and the GTZ support for groundwater availability are therefore also needed It is, however, essential that all these new data and information is focussed into a comprehensive water balance analysis of the Kafue River basin The lack of studies in the Kalungwishi and Chambeshi River basins are probably because of limited development plans in the basins Since these basins are becoming of more interest due to limited water resources in the Kafue River, it is, however, envisaged that the requirement for more and detailed studies will increase The only basin wide studies were made by JICA (1995) for the National Water Resources Master Plan The basis for these studies is now almost 20 years old and it is strongly recommended to update the master plans for the Kalungwishi and Chambeshi River basins as soon as possible

21 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users Water resources in the three catchments Zambia has a moderate climate with rainfall unevenly distributed over the year: A rainy season in summer from November to April A cool dry winter season from May to August A hot dry season in September and October Furthermore, Zambia, as most countries in southern Africa, has a large inter-annual variation in rainfall Depending on the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the availability of moisture over the Indian Ocean and Central Africa the rainy season may therefore vary considerably from year to year Spatially, the northeast part of Zambia has higher rainfall and lower evaporation compared to the south and south-west parts Because of this the surface water availability is relatively higher in the Kalungwishi and Chambeshi compared to the Kafue River basin The Kalungwishi River basin thus has the highest specific runoff (runoff per area unit) of the three according to the National Water Resources Master Plan from 1995 (Table 31) Table 31 Rainfall, runoff (mm) and runoff coefficient (%) in the three studies river basins for Source: JICA (1995) Catchment Average Runoff Average Rainfall Kalungwishi u/s Kundbwika Falls % Chambeshi u/s Mpika-Kasama Rd % Kafue u/s Hooks Bridge % Runoff coefficient The specific runoffs for the three river basins follow the general patterns of Zambia s climate The special characteristics of the Kafue River basin with large swampy areas probably further accentuate the lower specific runoff in this river basin Diao et al (2008) also points out that the climatic variability decreases with the specific runoff, which means that tributaries to Kalungwishi and Chambeshi are likely to have higher low flows compared to corresponding areas in lower Kafue River 331 Water resources in the Kafue Flats The best available data for the lower Kafue River stem from the reservoir data A water balance was therefore made for the two reservoirs, Itezhi-Tezhi and Kafue Gorge, for the period of (Figure 37) To calculate the effect of irrigation and domestic use the historical development of water rights were computed based on the records from the Water Board Through estimating the utilisation of the water rights according to operation information from Zambia Sugar it was possible to estimate the historic use of water during the period Removing the artificial influence of the dam evaporation, irrigation and urban supply indicate a natural runoff of approximately 275 m 3 /s at Kafue Gorge

22 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 20 WATER BALANCE Dam evaporation 14 m3/s Dam evaporation 21 m3/s Kafue Flats Inflow 245 m3/s Itezhi-Tezhi Outflow 231 m3/s Net inflow 32 m3/s Inflow 252 m3/s Irrigation & Urban supply 11 m3/s Kafue Gorge Outflow 231 m3/s Figure 37 Water balance for the Kafue Flats based on observed records by ZESCO 332 Chambeshi River The lack of data at Chambeshi River basin makes it difficult to estimate the runoff The station at the Mpika-Kasama Rd indicates 138 m 3 /s or 125 mm/year for the period Using this specific runoff for the Lukulu River gives approximately 34 m 3 /s at the confluence with Chambeshi The specific runoff is higher for smaller catchment areas, especially for the upper parts of the river basin It is therefore not possible to transfer this value to the Kalungwishi Estate dam 333 Kalungwishi River Similar to Chambeshi the limited and uncertain data makes it difficult to make a firm estimate of water resources in the Kalungwishi River The data at Chimpempe give 81 m 3 /s or 251 mm/year for the period , which can be transferred to the key sites in the river basin (Table 32) Table 32 Average estimated flow in Kalungwishi River basin Catchment Runoff (m 3 /s) Kalungwishi River at potential hydropower site 88 Kalungwishi River at outflow to Lake Mweru 121 Luena River at confluence with Kalungwishi Low flows By utilising the available flow records at Kafue Hook, Chambeshi at Mpika-Kasama Rd and Kalungwishi at Chimpempe the safe yields at 975% of the natural river flows can be estimated (Table 33) This value corresponds to the river runoff that that can be assured 975% of the time, ie the flows are only below this value 25% of the time

23 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 21 Table 33 Estimated natural low flows Catchment Kafue Hook 55 Kafue Gorge* 64 Chambeshi at Mpika-Kasama Rd 37 Lukulu at confluence with Chambeshi 9 Kalungwishi at potential hydropower site 19 Kalungwishi at outflow to Lake Mweru 25 Luena at confluence with Kalungwishi 5 *Assuming no dams in place 975% assurance based on records (m 3 /s) 34 Water use in the three catchments 341 Present consumptive water use The only essential source that exists for present water use is the Water Rights record (Water Board 2009) The use of this as a base for water use is, however, difficult because of two reasons: 1 The water rights are not fully up to date because users have failed to report changes or reapplied for extension and because the Water Board at the moment does not have the capacity to fully monitor water use In addition it is still difficult to identify the exact location of the water abstraction from the water rights records (the Water Board is currently working on transferring the water rights to a GIS database, which will tremendously improve the information) 2 The water right only gives maximum daily water abstraction as m 3 /day Because of general lack of capacity measurements of water use are scarce and information of actual use is therefore not available For seasonal users, such as irrigators, the total use can, however, be assumed to be considerably lower on an annual basis then the total water right given An attempt to extract the relevant water rights in the three river catchments was made (Table 34) Only valid or pending water rights were considered Table 34 Estimated water rights in the studied river basis Catchment Consumptive and Consumptive non-consumptive m 3 /s m 3 /s Kafue River Kafue Flats (Southern and Lusaka) Chambeshi at Mpika-Kasama Rd Lukulu 9 5 Kalungwishi at outflow to Lake Mweru 03 03

24 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 22 Using information on water rights for the sugar cane production from Zambia Sugar, Consolidated Farming and Kalungwishi Estate the following estimates have been concluded for present conditions: Kafue Flats: 31 m 3 /s Lukulu: 035 m 3 /s For Chambeshi and Kalungwishi there are no water rights given for sugar cane production according to the current record of the Water Board or from other sources of information For sugar cane in the Kafue Flats the water rights record (Water Board 2009) differs slightly compared to the given values above The major users as Zambia Sugar and Consolidated Farming coincide well, but for a number of the outgrowers differences exist It is also observed that some of the water rights stated by Zambia Sugar for the sugar cane outgrowers are reported as other crops in the Water Board record The actual use of water for the present situation is different because of the irrigators using less water during the rainy season Records of pumped water from Zambia Sugar Company revealed that during the seasons only about 50-60% of the water rights were used on an annual basis Furthermore, even during the months of September and October when the demand was close to the given water right, not more than 60-65% was used The reason according to verbal communication is that the capacity of the canal and pumping scheme could not accommodate the actual need for water A visit to Consolidated Farming indicated the same situation Both sugar estates are therefore at the moment investing in more pumping capacity (Figure 38) The expansion at Zambia Sugar and outgrowers for another 79 m 3 /s for more irrigation at Nakambala has also not yet been fully implemented It is anticipated that in 2009/2010 most of the expanded areas will be operational Figure 38 Construction of foundations for new pumps at Consolidated Farming in 2009 On the other hand, information from Consolidated Farming was that they are currently irrigating in the order of 6,500 ha, which would need a demand of 6-7 m 3 /s This is more than the current 350,000 m 3 /day granted water right and the company is in the process of applying for an extended water right The World Bank (2009) remote sensing analysis estimated irrigation areas in the Kafue Flats in 2008 to 38,000 ha, which indicate a demand of 38 m 3 /s using the 1 litre/s and hectare as suggested by Stephens (2008) This study also confirms the expansion that has occurred at Consolidated Farming The World Bank study is thus probably the best estimate of current irrigation demand in the Kafue Flats Adding the current water demand for Lusaka with the World Bank s estimated irrigation gives a total demand of 41 m 3 /s in the driest months of the year Considering the information on actual irrigation areas, seasonal demand and limited pumping capacity the present situation as described in Table 35 is anticipated

25 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 23 Table 35 Estimated water demand and use in the Kafue Flats in 2009The reason for use being less than demand in the driest months is mainly because of limited pumping capacity The lower average use over the year is because of less water requirements for irrigation during the rainy season Catchment Volume (m 3 /s) Water demand during September and October 41 Water use during September and October 28 Total average water use over the year Future consumptive water demand The future use of water is very difficult to predict On a 5-year horizon it is not anticipated that much will happen in Kafue Flats more than that the water rights will be sorted out for the actual demand and that canal and pumping capacities are upgraded to fully utilise the granted water rights The Lusaka Water and Sewage Company will probably start implementing their plans for changing the source from groundwater to surface water by increasing the treatment plant capacity at the intake from Kafue River It is judged feasible that part of the expansion is possible to 2015 and that the abstraction is doubled from the present 95,000 m 3 /day (11 m 3 /s) This will result in an actual water use of close to 42 m 3 /s during the dry months for the Kafue Flats in 2015 On the longer term, years, the Lusaka Water is anticipated to grow further According to the present Water Supply Master Plan that is being developed this means an abstraction from Kafue River of 460,000 m 3 /day (53 m 3 /s) Consolidated Farming still has capacity in its sugar factory and is planning expansion of 2,000 ha through outgrower schemes in two adjacent areas of their land (Struyf and Chuba 2009) Zambia Sugar s factory has capacity for another 400 ha These expansion plans would lead to some 36,000 ha for sugar cane irrigation Assuming a 20% increase in other irrigation, mainly in the tributaries, and taking into account the full growth of Lusaka would give a total water demand in the Kafue Flats in the dry months of 48 m 3 /s or 41 million m 3 /day in the long term perspective Table 36 summarises the projection of water demand in the Kafue Flats Table 36 Projections of consumptive water demand in the Kafue Flats Type of use Water demand in driest months in m 3 /s Present Sugar cane irrigation Other irrigation Domestic and industrial use in Lusaka Total

26 Availability of water resources for sugar cane production expansion in Zambia in the context of competing hydropower and other users 24 The development of irrigation demand in the Kafue Flats is thus estimated to be much lower than given in many previous studies It is, however, anticipated that because of the water stress in the Kafue, expressed by eg World Bank (2008), no major investments will be made The above Table 36 thus only consider agricultural development to maximise the existing infrastructure and sugar factory capacities as well as some limited expansion of irrigation in the tributaries In Chambeshi and Lukulu the consultants are not aware of any large expansion to the already small water use Kalungwishi Estate would like to expand their 320 ha of sugar with 80 more hectares through outgrower schemes The effect on water demand would be only another 01 m 3 /s and would not make any significant difference on the larger catchment scale Locally it may however mean that there is a problem with the existing dam capacity at the dam site and there are therefore plans to build another dam to give extra storage (see Figure 35) In the Kalungwishi River basin there are no large expansion schemes known except the Luena SEI (2000) reports of 6,650 ha in the first phase and another 10,000 ha for later expansion This will require approximately 17 m 3 /s in the dry months Through building reservoirs the Luena Scheme will, however, need less water on an annual average SEI (2000) states some 90 million m 3 /year (29 m 3 /s) as the water demand for the first phase with 6,650 ha The possible extension of another 10,000 ha will take water from a proposed reservoir in Luongo River that is not part of the Kalungwishi River basin 343 Present and future hydropower needs According to ZESCO (wwwzescocozm) the consumption of electricity in Zambia in 1994 was 6,422 GWh In addition Zambia exports electricity to mainly Zimbabwe Harza (1999) reports on a forecasted need up to 9,312 GWh for 2014 ZESCO currently has four major schemes that supply this power: Kafue Gorge (Capacity 900 MW) Kariba North Bank (Capacity 600 MW) Victoria Falls (Capacity 108 MW) Lumsemfwa & Mulungushi (Capacity 28 MW) The Kafue Gorge is the largest producer and with its 430 MW firm power 4, which it is presently operating for, it produces more than 3,800 GWh per year 5 The firm power was calculated by SADC for dry periods after the 1991/92 drought Since ZESCO is also distributing the electricity in Zambia they utilise most of the secondary power Average assumed energy production is 6,150 Gwh/year Kafue Gorge is also used for peaking during the hours of the day when the need for higher effect is needed Therefore turbines to produce 900 MW are installed The Kafue Gorge, as well as Kariba North Bank, has long suffered problems with the production units Often some of the six installed turbines at the Kafue Gorge have not been functioning This has especially been the case during rehabilitation when 2 units have been closed at a time 4 In this report we use 100% assurance for firm power ZESCO also uses 95% assurance, which would give the firm power of 540 MW for the Kafue Gorge 5 Producing 1 MW during all hours in a year (8,760) gives 876 GWh/year