UK Green Investment: Commercial Opportunity, Low Carbon Challenge and Sustainable Delivery

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1 UK Green Investment: Commercial Opportunity, Low Carbon Challenge and Sustainable Delivery Master Class: Waste Chris Holmes Managing Director, Waste & Bioenergy 27 October 2014

2 Master Class: Waste Section 1 - Introduction to GIB Waste & Bioenergy team Section 2 UK Waste Market & GIB Residual Waste Report Section 3 Report in Brief Section 4 Key Takeaways 2

3 Section 1 Introduction to GIB Waste & Bioenergy team 1 3

4 OUR JOB Our vision: green and profitable Our task: crowding-in capital Our markets: Offshore Wind Waste & Bioenergy Energy Efficiency 4

5 SUMMARY OF WASTE & BIOENERGY TRANSACTIONS GIB s Waste Bioenergy team and FM s have invested c. 415mn across 16 transactions To date, 84% of team s investment in Waste sector have been in PFI/PPP transactions vs Merchant projects Project Name Sector Direct Investments ( m) Fund Investments ( m) Fund manager GIB capital Total capital mobilised GIB capital Total capital mobilised Derby Waste PPP Waste and bioenergy Estover Speyside Waste and bioenergy Willen anaerobic digestion project Waste and bioenergy Foresight Northern Ireland on-farm AD: Bridge Energy Waste and bioenergy Foresight Northern Ireland on-farm AD: PAR Renewables Waste and bioenergy Foresight Norfolk waste PFI 1 Waste and bioenergy Birmingham BioPower gasification plant 2 Waste and bioenergy Foresight Merseyside waste PFI Waste and bioenergy West London waste PFI Waste and bioenergy Evermore waste to energy plant 3 Waste and bioenergy Foresight Wakefield Waste PFI Waste and bioenergy Drax biomass conversion Waste and bioenergy Greenlight anaerobic digestion project Waste and bioenergy Greensphere TEG Biogas plant, Dagenham Waste and bioenergy Foresight Gloucester Waste PPP Waste and bioenergy Port Talbot biomass plant Waste and bioenergy Greensphere Greensphere fund initial capitalisation Waste and bioenergy Foresight fund initial capitalisation Waste and bioenergy total 458 2,

6 FINANCING NEW TECHNOLOGIES Birmingham Biopower s gasification process is the first of its kind in the UK. GIB has taken a debt and equity position GCP GIB 12m 1 : 1.6 Eternity GIB via UKWREI Fund 6.2m Balfour Beatty Total investment: 47.8m 6

7 FINANCING NEW TECHNOLOGIES Derby Waste PPP is the first long term, project financed, municipal gasification plant in the UK. It demonstrates the investment potential of this type of technology. Reduction in GHG emissions by 48k tonnes CO 2 e Equivalent to 22,000 cars off the road 12MW Renewable Energy generation. Enough to power 14,000 homes. Recycling over 35,000 tonnes of materials per year and diverting over 170kt/year of waste from landfill. 7

8 Section 2 UK Waste Market & GIB Residual Waste Report 1 8

9 OVERVIEW: UK WASTE MARKET GIB Waste Strategy focuses on municipal element of Household, Industrial and Commercial Waste (HIC) Total Waste in the UK = approx. 175mn of which 85mn is HIC waste Total HIC Waste Arisings* (85.0Mt) LOCAL AUTHORITY COLLECTED WASTE (LACW) COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL WASTE (C&I WASTE) Household Waste Other LA collected waste Municipal C&I Waste Other Suitable C&I Waste Unsuitable C&I Waste 43% 5% 42% 10% Total Suitable Waste Arisings (64.8 Mt) * Excludes Construction & Demolition Waste Total Waste in UK c.175mt 9

10 HOW WE VIEW THE MARKET? Old World vs New World Split Key differentiation for PFI/PPP projects vs Merchant projects Old World New World WASTE TYPE LOCAL AUTHORITY C&I WASTE PROJECT / CONTRACTUAL STRUCTURE PFI/PPP MERCHANT TECHNOLOGY TYPE CONVENTIONAL CONVENTIONAL GASIFICATION / PYROLYSIS - AD TYPICAL FUNDING STRUCTURE EQUITY DEBT TIER 1 SPONSORS COMMERCIAL BANKS TIER 2 SPONSORS NICHE LENDERS TIER 3 SPONSORS MEZZ/EQUITY FUNDS, INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDS, EIS/VCT GIB TYPICAL FINANCING ROLE SENIOR DEBT EQUITY MEZZ SENIOR DEBT RISK PROFILE LOW HIGH 10

11 CONFUSION IN MARKET Differing industry reports had led to confusion in the market as to whether there is over or under capacity of UK EfW treatment and stalled investment in the sector OVERCAPACITY IN SECTOR UNDERCAPACITY IN SECTOR 11

12 GIB ISSUES WASTE REPORT JULY 2014 W&B team engage Tolvik Consulting for independent analysis of the UK Waste Sector 12

13 KEY REPORT HIGHLIGHTS Waste management is critical to the UK and where economically viable our residual waste (post recycling) can be turned into energy Source: GIB 2014 The UK Residual Waste Market 13

14 Section 3 Report in Brief How to Calculate Gap in the Market? 1 14

15 WASTE HIERARCHY DICTATES WASTE FLOWS Other Recovery principally refers to Energy for Waste treatment of Residual waste that otherwise would go to landfill 15

16 WASTE ARISINGS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GIB/Tolvik modelled a low availability and high availability scenario Key forecast assumptions - growth in number of UK households and resource efficiency Total Waste Arisings 16

17 Germany Netherlands Belgium Sweden Denmark Austria Luxembourg France EU Average Finland Italy Ireland United Kingdom Slovenia Poland Spain Portugal Estonia Czech Republic Hungary Latvia Slovakia Lithuania Romania Cyprus Greece Malta Bulgaria RECYCLING RATES HAVE INCREASED Household waste recycling rates in the UK have risen dramatically over the last ten years but at c. 44% still significantly lag behind our European peers We estimate that 37.1 million tonnes of waste was recycled in 2012 and estimate that million tonnes will be recycled by 2020 based on our low and high availability scenarios (recycling range of 50%-64%) UK Recycling Rates European Recycling Comparables Rate Period Target England 43.3% To Jun % Scotland 41.2% To Dec % Wales 53.0% To Sep % Northern Ireland 39.7% To Apr % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Landfill Recycling Incineration Composting Other 17

18 RESIDUAL WASTE 3 OPTIONS TO TREAT 27.7mn tonnes of Residual Waste in 2012 There are 3 treatment options MBT / Pre Treatment Export Energy for Waste Residual Waste Treatment options MBT / Pre Treatment UK MBT capacity is currently 2.4 million tonnes and it is estimated that with the build out of existing local authority backed projects total capacity will reach 3.6 million tonnes by Pre-treatment is a physical, thermal, chemical or biological process which can include sorting or altering the characteristics of the waste in order to reduce its volume and/or its hazardous nature and improve its potential for energy recovery. It is important to avoid double counting when analysing pre-treatment facilities either of waste which is processed at more than one facility or of facilities which are part of a wider supply chain. Export 2mn tonnes estimated by Current run rate 2.4mn p.a. UK Energy for Waste Treatment 18

19 PROJECTING SUPPLY EXISTING/FUTURE CAPACITY 5.2mn tonnes of existing EfW waste facilities currently operating 11.9mn tonnes of projected EfW capacity to come on stream by 2020 Assume 62% probability of development inline with DEFRA 19

20 A CAPACITY GAP EXISTS A need exists for additional infrastructure in the UK, to mn-27mn of residual waste available in 2020 We estimate between 4.0 mn mn tonnes of merchant capacity is required This represents a potential investment opportunity of approximately 5 billion Residual Waste Gap Treatment Capacity 20

21 Section 4 Key Takeaways 1 21

22 KEY TAKEAWAYS Estimated waste to landfill will drop from 21mn in 2012 or 75% of Residual Waste to 7mn in 2020 equivalent to 32% of Residual Waste EfW treatment is expected to rise from 20% to 56% 22

23 KEY CONCLUSIONS GIB will continue to invest in the Merchant Waste space There is a Capacity Gap o GIB 5bn investment target compares to 8bn for Veolia & 10-15bn at SITA GIB will assess a Project s ability to flex gate fees o Why? Levels of exports are increasing and setting prices o Why? Generally less waste in the market pressurising gate fees GIB will continue to look at recycling opportunities (move up the Waste Hierarchy) 23

24 CONTACT US Chris Holmes +44 (0) Headquarters Atria One Level Morrison Street Edinburgh EH3 8EX Tel: +44 (0) London Office Millbank Tower Millbank London SW1P 4QP T +44 (0) The information in this document and any accompanying material ( The Document ) is confidential and commercially sensitive. This Document is provided to each recipient on a confidential basis solely for information purposes only. No reliance can be placed on this Document by any recipient or any other person. This Document and its contents are confidential to the person to whom it is delivered and must not be reproduced or distributed, either in whole or in part, nor its contents disclosed by such persons to any other person without the prior written consent of UK Green Investment Bank plc. Except as required by law, neither UK Green Investment Bank Plc nor any of its connected persons accepts any liability or responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of, or makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the information contained in this Document or on which this Document is based or any other information or representations supplied to the recipient. UK Green Investment Bank Plc will not act and has not acted as your legal, tax, accounting or investment adviser. This Document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase, any investment and UK Green Investment Bank Plc does not arrange investments for/introduce parties as a result of sharing the information set out in this Document. Registered Office: Atria One, Level 7, 144 Morrison Street, Edinburgh, EH3 8EX. Company Number SC UK Green Investment Bank Plc is wholly owned by HM Government. The company is not authorised or regulated by the Prudential Regulation Authority or the Financial Conduct Authority. 24

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