Strategic Outlook for Canada s Oil & Gas Industry

Transcription

1 Strategic Outlook for Canada s Oil & Gas Industry Greg Stringham Calgary Real Estate Forum October 2011 Key Strategic Questions/Priorities Oil & Gas Production More Surprises? Price is Driving Unconventional Conventional Oil Liquids carry Gas Environmental Performance Walk the Talk Oil Sands Shale Gas Frac-ing Communications Talk the Walk Actions speak louder than words but we still need words Market Access Here, There, Everywhere New markets; taller hurdles Creating Jobs

2 Global Primary Energy Demand Significant energy demand growth: Population, standards of living Need all forms of energy: Increasing role for renewables Continuing reliance on hydrocarbons Increasing role for nonconventional crude oil & natural gas Environmental challenges Technology is a key lever for sustainable growth Current Policies Scenario 3 Crude Oil and Natural Gas prices Crude Oil Prices (WTI NYMEX) $US per barrel Natural Gas Prices (AECO Daily Spot Price) $Cdn/mcf '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 ' '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

3 Oil & Gas Production More Surprises? Industry Capital Spending Cdn $billions Oil & Gas Investment Spending: 2010: $51 billion 2011: $54 billion (estimate) 2012: $55 billion (forecast) Northern Canada E 2012F $0.3 $0.3 $0.3 Oil Sands E 2012F $17 $19 $20 East Coast Offshore Western Canada E 2012F E 2012F $32 $33 $33 $1.4 $1.5 Note: Excludes spending mergers & acquisitions $1.5

4 Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country billion barrels Includes 170 billion barrels of oil sands reserves World Oil Reserves Restricted (79%) Open to Private Sector 30 Open to Private Sector Oil Sands 56% Other 44% Saudi Arabia Ve nezuela Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Russia Libya Nigeria Kazhakhstan Qatar China United States Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec W. Canadian Oil Sands and Conventional Production Forecast ( ) 5,000 4,500 Actual Forecast thousand bpd 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Atlantic Canada In Situ Mining 1,000 Conventional Heavy 500 Pentanes/Condensate Conventional Light

5 Western Canadian Land Sales full year 2011 Jan to Sept. ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BRITISH COLUMBIA $ billions $ billions 0.6 $ billions YTD YTD YTD 2011 OIL & NATURAL GAS OIL NATURAL GAS Total Wells Drilled in Western Canada Dry/Susp. Gas Oil E 2012F Alberta 7,090 8,700 9,000 British Columbia Saskatchewan 2,517 2,770 2,845 Manitoba = 16, E 2012 F 2010 = 12,600 = 13, = 10,611 1, = 8,137 2, , E 2012F Source CAPP. Based on Rig Release

6 Oil-Directed Well Licences Issued in W. Canada (Cumulative) Emerging Tight Oil Opportunities Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Nickle s DOB CAPP Conventional Production Forecast vs Forecast 2010 forecast Thousand bbls/day

7 Western Canadian Natural Gas Resources Source: TransCanada Canadian Natural Gas Resource is Growing 2000 Produced 2010 Produced Remaining Remaining 390 TCF* 70 years of supply Shale/Tight/CBM TCF* 100+ years of supply *Estimates include Alberta s TCF Technological advances have unlocked vast unconventional gas resources. *Estimated Recoverable Marketable Gas: Source: CSUG

8 Natural Gas Directed Well Licences Issued in Western Canada Cumulative British Columbia Horizontal Gas Wells as % of Total WCSB Gas Wells (Jan Sept) % % % % % % & Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Nickle s DOB Canadian Natural Gas Production Recovery and Continued Low Price Cases Bcfd Price Recovery Case Note: Prices recover to at least a level of $5.50/GJ Continued Low Price Case Mackenzie Delta Eastern Canada Horn & Cordova Montney CBM Conventional Bcfd Note: Prices do not exceed $4/GJ over the forecast period

9 Environmental Performance Social Equivalent to Rate of Return Responsible Environmental Development Reducing GHG Emissions Using less energy input Use energy more efficiently Capturing CO2 Governments investing over $3 billion partners with industry Water Increasing water recycle Using saline water for steam Land New tailings technologies accelerate reclamation Smaller footprint and faster reclamation g co2 eq./mj Oil Sands GHG Emissions/bbl 29%

10 Global Energy Related Emissions Global Emissions Canada s 2% OECD Europe 17% Non-OECD Europe & Eurasia 9% Industrial Processes & Waste 9.9% Japan 4% Transport 27.5% Agriculture & Forestry 8.4% China 24% India 5% Oil Sands 6.5% Canada Australia/New Zealand 2% Residential 5.9% Other Fossil Fuel 16.1% United States 18% Other 19% Manufacturing, Commercial & Construction 11.5% Electricity & Heat Generation 14.2% Sources: 1. U.S. Dept. of Energy/EIA 2. Environment Canada GHG emissions from oil sands: just over 1/1000th of global GHG emissions 6.5% of Canada s GHG emissions 29% reduction in intensity from North American GHG Emissions (2009) for Coal-fired Power and Oil Sands AK OR MT ND MN Legend NV AZ UT 100 megatonnes 50 megatonnes 15 megatonnes WY NM CO SD NE KS OK TX IA MO AR LA WI IL MS TN IN AL MI KY OH GA WV FL SC VA NC NY NJ NH Canadian oil sands Canadian coal-fired power generating plants U.S. Coal fired power generating plants Sources: U.S. DOE/EIA & Environment Canada

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12 Communications Talk the Walk Actions Speak Louder than Words but we still need Words Communicating with the Public

13 Communicating with the Public Market Access Here, There, Everywhere

14 Canadian & U.S. Crude Oil Pipeline Proposals US Demand for Canadian Crude Oil (2010)

15 Canada s Oil Export to U.S. 21% 15% 16% Energy Demand in China & N. A North America China 3000 Mtoe Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Current Policies Scenario

16 Potential Tanker Markets for Canadian Oil Sands Production Prince Rupert/Kitimat Persian Gulf Korea Japan China Japan Taiwan Taiwan 3,840 ~ 4,500 N Miles ~ 8,600 N Miles 1,400 N Miles Los Angeles Los Angeles 1,790 Jose/ Jose/ SantaCruz La Cruz La Cruz ~ 5,400 N Miles Far East Target Markets U.S West Coast Competitive travel distances for Canadian supply to both markets Source: Enbridge Pipelines N.A. Natural Gas Pipelines & 2010 Cdn. Exports to U.S. (bcf/d) Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Proposed Kitimat LNG Project Westcoast TransCanada Alberta (NGTL) ANG/ Pacific NW Foothills TransCanada Transmission 1.5 bcf/d Alliance Mainline Northwest Northeast Foothills 2.0 bcf/d M&NE PGT TQ&M Northwest Northern Great Lakes Border Central Iroquois PNGTS PG&E Kern 4.1 bcf/d River CNG Trailblazer Algonquin California ANR 1.4 bcf/d NGPL Panhandle Transwestern Texas SoCal ANR El Paso NGPL Eastern El Paso Vector Transcontinental

17 Projected Imports of Natural Gas (Tcf per Year) China South Korea Fukushima Make-up* Japan Source: Energy Information Administration * Based on Analysts Estimates West Coast LNG Export Projects 2 proposed Kitimat: KM LNG (1.4 bcf/d) BC LNG Export Co-operative (0.25 bcf/d) Market Diversification Large emerging shale plays in WCSB Lower U.S. import requirements with emergence of shale gas Potential price uplift Asian LNG price linked to oil Regulatory approvals for facilities largely in hand

18 Creating Jobs Employment Outlook for the Alberta Petroleum Industry - Operations Source: Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada

19 Alberta Major Industrial Projects Workforce >$100 mm Construction Construction Personnel Economic Benefits & Employment Generated from Oil Sands Outside Alberta Source: CERI May 2011

20 2400 American companies provide goods and services directly to the oil sands Canada s Oil & Gas Industry Outlook Oil & Gas Production Short term price signals: Oil modest. gas still weak Technology is driving Environmental Performance Fundamental Foundation Walk the Talk Communications Talk the Walk Market Access Canada, US, Asia Creating Jobs