GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS OF THE SHIP SAFETY ON SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BALTIC SEA

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1 BALTIC MASTER REPORT M II part 2/4 GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS OF THE SHIP SAFETY ON SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BALTIC SEA Routing, traffic, accidents, actual navigational conditions. Maritime University of Szczecin 1

2 THIS PAGE IS INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 2

3 This part of report is made on the partly fulfilment of the tasks executed by MUS within the BalticMaster Interreg IIIB project. BALTIC MASTER REPORT Milestone II part 2/4 This report is joint effort of Maritime University of Szczecin research team Contributors: No Name Responsibility Signature 1 Antoniewicz Marta Development of ship grounding model 2 Artyszuk Jarosław Development of ship dynamics models 3 Bąk Andrzej General models of ship energy in collisions 4 Gucma Lucjan - Team leader 5 Gucma Maciej AIS and traffic data analysis and possession 6 Gucma Stanisław Development of general risk assessment model 7 Hajduk Jerzy General navigational requirements on the Baltic Sea 8 Jankowski Stefan Geographical data analysis and its possession 9 Juszkiewicz Wiesław Radar reliability assessment 10 Pietrzykowski Zbigniew Ship-ship collision probability determination model 11 Przywarty Marcin Main programmer software implementation 12 Tomczak Arkadiusz Modeling of position fixing systems in Southern Baltic 13 Zalewski Paweł Position fixing systems operational parameters 3

4 1. Navigational conditions at analyzed routes from Northern and Southern international routes through the Danish Straits and Baltic Sea This chapter describes some aspects of navigational routes in Southern Baltic which are necessary for the preliminary assumptions for the probabilistic model of safety created by the Maritime University of Szczecin research team within the scope of the Baltic Master project GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION, DESCRIPTION OF NAVIGATIONAL AND BATHYMETRIC CONDITION The work is divided into: 1. Approach to Skaggerak (North Sea), 2. Skaggerak passage, 3. Danish Strait transit, 4. Routes to ports at Polish coast Approach to Skagerrak (from North Sea) Described area with given points is presented at fig norway SKAGERRAK sweden KATTEGAT denamark NORTH SEA great britain germany poland DOVER STRAIT Fig.1.1. North Sea area with Skagerrak Skagen traffic is supported by ships coming from three main directions: Dover Strait, Norwegian Sea, North of Scottish Coast. 4

5 The most Skagen inbound ships coming from Dover Strait and north of Scottish Coast. There are mainly container ships, bulk cargo, general cargo and tankers. Norwegian stream is supplied first of all by tankers. Other types are not so numerous like in Dover Strait case. Similarly there is no any limitation for ship s traffic of any type passing mentioned area. Safety of navigation is not restricted by accessible depths. Actually ships may comply with free of navigation rule. It is possible because accessible depths are always more then 15 meters. Due to this situation ships heading Skagen can choose the shortest and most convenient route. In this way Skagen Strait may receive ships from many ports of the world Danish Straits With the purpose of ensuring the navigational safety of large ships passing through Danish waters, the Danish Government has established a transit route between Skagen (the Skaw) and the area NE of Gedser with a minimum depth of 17 m. The route is named Route T, and its main components are shown at figures 1.2 to 1.9. Route T is marked by light buoys and lights. Danish pilot assistance is available from Skagen (the Skaw) to Allinge on the island of Bornholm. During icy periods Danish icebreakers will render free assistance to shipping whenever possible. In spite, of the correct buoyage, publication Navigation Through Danish Waters in certain areas, presents difficulties to large ships due to narrow waters, sharp bends, strong currents and shallow depths. Recommendations for large ships and ships carrying radioactive material The entrances to the Baltic Sea are difficult to navigate, the waters are shallow and currents are strong. The navigation of large ships and ships carrying radioactive materials therefore constitutes a potential hazard to international shipping and a danger of pollution. In order to prevent such incidents IMO (International Maritime Organization) has adopted a recommendation for ships with a draught of 11 meters or more and ships irrespective of size or draught carrying shipments of INF- cargoes (Appendix 1). Ships passing the Great Belt Bridge through The Eastern Channel In order to assist ships passing the Great Belt Bridge, a VTS (Vessel Traffic System) system Great Belt Traffic with a radio reporting system has been established. Reporting to the VTS-system is mandatory under the SOLAS convention for all ships of 50 GT and above and ships with an air draught of 15 meters or more. The free vertical clearance is 65 meters at mean sea level. The VTS-system makes use of radar surveillance, infrared cameras and TV cameras. A guard vessel is on stand by for rapid action in the area. 5

6 Fig Routes in Danish Straits. Route T is marked by Yellow outline Fig Orthophoto map of Western Baltic Sea area. 6

7 Fig.1.4. Route T (red) with minimum depth 17 meters (Skagen to Gedser) Fig Traffic separation scheme At HATTER BARN (least depth 15 m) and DW route Hatter Barn - Hatterrev 7

8 Fig Traffic separation scheme Between Korsør and Sprogø (Great Belt Bridge) 8

9 Fig Limits of VTS- Area in Storebælt (The Great Belt) red colored line is described Route T. 9

10 Fig DW Route in Langelandsbælt (Route T leads through Deep Water - DW Route) Fig Traffic separation scheme South of Gedser and DW Route (Kadetrenden) 10

11 Western Baltic Sea Navigation on Baltic is strongly restricted by accessible depths of the sea bed. An average of sea depth is 55 meters. The deepest place Landsort is 459 meters. Apart from Gdańska Depth-118 m, Bornholm Depth m, Arkońska Depth- 50 m, there are also shallows like Odrzanska 6m and Słupska 8m. The main and only shipping route established for deep draught vessel (draft 11-15m) leads through Kattegat Strait and Great Belt, called T route, with minimum depth 17 meters. The second route for vessels with draft less then 7.7 meters leads through Sund Strait. The farther traffic goes between Danish, German, and Swedish coasts. There is also no shipping possibility for vessels with draft more then 15 meters within Kaddet Trench area with minimum depth 17 meters. Moving East, depths are slowly increasing, but still remain very variable. Deep draught vessels heading East or North for accessible depths reasons, choose the recommended route N of Bornholm Island. Even vessels heading to Polish ports such as Gdańsk or Gdynia very often use this route. The analysis of charted depths of area S of Bornholm shows that deep draught vessel (abt. 15 m) would be able to navigate safely within this area. Some restrictions however should be taken into account. There are three dangerous shallows within the mentioned area (Orla Shallow marked as a 1 Odrzana Shallow marked as 2 and Słupska Shallow marked as 3 ). These obstructions are marked on figure Fig Shallow waters between Bornholm Island and Polish coast. number in yellow contour shallow water dashed red line main routes solid red line possible route to Gdansk blue line possible route to Swinoujscie Accessible depths on these areas are less than 15 meters, with minimum depth 6 meters in Odrzana Shallow what is not sufficient for deep draught vessels to navigate. Apart from listed areas there are no other charted depths less than 20 meters. It seems reasonable to think over the possibility of establishing the new recommended routes leading to ports situated S or E of Bornholm. Red continuous lines on the 1.10 figure present hypothetical routes that could be established between depths limited areas. There is no innovation possible for vessel heading Świnoujście harbor. For the safety reasons the recommended route for vessels with draft more then 10 meters (at the moment up to 13,2 meters) must remain E of Rugen Island as presented on the fig (continuous lines). 11

12 Remark The three new propositions to Traffic Separation Schemes (TSS) on The Western Baltic Sea Area will be into force from ) Amendment to TSS (Traffic Separation Scheme) South of Gedser (Fig.1.11) The existing traffic separation scheme South of Gedser is proposed to be amended by establishing an Inshore Traffic Zone at the south-easterly border of the scheme between buoys E 70, 71 and 72. This Inshore Traffic Zone will guide the transit traffic into the traffic separation scheme South of Gedser and prevent transit traffic between the traffic separation scheme and the German coast. The objective is to keep vessels with larger draught at a safe distance off the areas of shallow waters and the coast of Mecklemburg -Western Pomerania especially the nature reserves Fig Amendment to TSS South of Gedser 2) Bornholmsgat (Fig 1.12) In the Bornholmsgat, ships coming from the Polish coast, the Great Belt and the Kiel Canal, the southern coast of Sweden and a north-easterly direction converge. The main flows of the traffic are crossed by ferries trading between, mainly, Sweden and ports in Germany, Denmark and Poland. Furthermore fishing activities are pursued in the area. More than passages are made by ships operating in this part of the Baltic Sea on a yearly basis. The daily average of ships passages through the Bornholmsgat is around 150. The proposed traffic separation scheme Bornholmsgat will be established between the Danish Island Bornholm and Sweden. The area covered by the scheme is approximately 20 nautical miles wide and 26 nautical miles long. The water depths in the area are between 26 and 66 metres. To the east of the scheme is Davids Bank with depth of 11.7 meters and to the west is Svartgrund with a depth of 14 meters. 12

13 Fig TSS Bornholmsgat 3) North of Ruegen (Fig. 1.13) The proposed traffic separation scheme North of Rugen is designed to facilitate the transit traffic between Gedser and Bornholmsgat. The objective of this proposal is to improve safety by directing the vessel traffic into the proposed traffic separation scheme in the Bornholmsgat and the traffic separation scheme and deep-water route South of Gedser. This proposal provides for the safe and efficient flow of traffic, and will thus reduce the number of conflicts in this area significantly. The traffic separation scheme North of Rugen is also designated to serve as a protective measure for a planned large wind farm at Kriegers Flak and for the northern coast of Mecklemburg-Western Pomerania, especially the nature reserves between Darser Ort and Dornbusch and the inner waters west of Rugen. 13

14 . Fig TSS North of Rugen Fig Preliminary considered routing measures in the southern part of the Baltic Sea 14

15 2. PREVAILING HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ON DESCRIBED AREA. Subchapter describes weather conditions on routes to ports in Poland. Detailed weather is given in chapters 3 and General weather conditions for south- western part of Baltic Sea The south-western part Baltic Sea is relatively mild, although there can be very unsettled periods with strong winds and rough sea. Gales can occur in any month but are most frequent in the autumn and winter months with winds reaching storm force on some occasions. Rainfall is not high and is fairly evenly spread throughout the year, although late winter and spring tend to be the driest periods with summer and autumn the wettest. The winter months are generally cloudier. Fog is not very frequent over the open sea but is most common in winter and spring in narrow channels and inlets. Visibility is often good and, on occasions, exceptional visibility occurs with N or NW winds [1]. Impact of weather to LNGC is a factor to be considered. Presently build LNG tankers are assumed to operate in very hard weather (regions where gas is exported are mostly in the northern hemisphere and conditions are usually rough.) Winds Due the frequent mobile depression that affects the area, there are often marked variations in both the speed and directions of the wind during any set period of time. However, if a high pressure cell become established over Scandinavia, especially in winter and spring, then E winds over the whole of the area are common and may persist for several weeks [3]. In autumn and winter the most frequent winds are from between SSW and W but during April and May winds are very variable in direction, not particularly strong. Little sensible can be said about prevailing directions. Through the Gulf of Finland winds tend to be channeled by the Gulf to be ENE or WSW. To the south of Gotland directions between south and east are comparatively rare. In the Copenhagen/Kiel area there is some tendency toward west to south-west[1]. Average wind speeds are around knots in April and more like 10 in May [2]. Sea breezes are common, developing around midday. Offshore, land breezes are relatively rare [3]. Through June to August the tendency over the open sea is more towards winds from a westerly point and for some increase in average strength to 12 knots generally and up to 14 in the Kattegat and near Rostock [2]. Near the coast, sea, sea breezes dominate after midday. These will be from a Southerly point up the Swedish coast and a northerly point down the Finnish coast [2]. Squalls in winter, frequently associated with strong NW winds over Kattegat, can sometimes be violent with often a marked reduction in visibility due to thick snow[2]. The percentage frequency of winds force 7 and over in spring and summer is between 3 and 6 percent of all observation, and with the greatest frequency in the extreme N of the area. In the autumn and winter the frequency increases to between 9 and 15 percent with the higher frequency in the extreme N and SE of the region[1]. For the most part, gales blow most frequently from the directions the winds are more frequent. Gales from SSW to NW being the most frequent, although E gales are not uncommon in the E of the area from October to April [1]. Impact of the wind and restrictions in sailing of LNGC in investigated area are to be considered thoroughly. Specific instructions for the masters should be made. Winds are not critical issue for LNGC passage at Baltic Sea. Impact of wind is same as for other ships i.e.: reduction of vessel speed, drift and increase of yawing Fog and visibility Fog is not very frequent over the open sea but is more common in narrow channels and inlets in winter and spring. Over the open sea the lowest frequency of fog is in summer with less then 2 % of occasions. Fog is most frequent over the open sea in April and May while the seas are still cold but the air temperature is rising. In March and April, fog frequencies are around 25% near the Southeast of 15

16 Sweden and near the South of Gotland and 10% elsewhere[1]. During July and August the frequencies are around 10% and 2% respectively. The frequency steadily increases throughout the autumn to reach a maximum in winter and spring of between 6% and 10 % and with the highest incidence in the S of the area [2]. Winter fogs are often the results of radiation fog which forms over cold inland areas at night and then drifts out to sea. Good visibility may occur in any month and with any wind direction but is more common with N or NW winds and can on occasions be exceptional [1]. Visibility is subject of restrictions, although in modern navigation, there are several methods of reducing risk related with restricted visibility Sea and swell Wave motion in the Southern Baltic is strongly related to wind and swell. Storms, defined with the criteria that the mean wind speed is at least 17 m/s, occur for 2 % of the time. In this region in November storms prevail for 9 % of the time and strong winds (11-16 m/s) for 32 % of the time [1]. During the last 15 years the wind speed has shown an increasing trend [1]. For the measuring station Lubiatowo, located near the shoreline of the central Polish coast, the biggest recorded height of an individual wave was 7.6 m and the highest significant wave height was 4.0 m. The significant wave height exceeding 1.0 m occurred 29 % and greater than 2.0 m 6 %, respectively [1]. The total set of 330 extreme waves has been observed among records. It has been found that the majority of the largest observed waves came from the northern and from the western direction. According to the information in the Sailing Directions, Volume Baltic Sea-Polish Coast, sea waves in an offshore area may achieve the height of 9 meters during the storms. In the lanes of the considered TSS Słupska Bank there are the areas with limiting depth of 14 m or less. Shifting sand shoals, numerous wrecks and stones and other obstacles in the area concerned exist. Taking into consideration above mentioned natural conditions and influence of squat on ship s draught, traffic in the separation scheme shall therefore be limited to ships with a safe draught. It is preliminary calculated as 8 meters, subject to be confirmed by the detailed survey. Ships with a draught exceeding this safe limit shall not use TSS Słupska Bank. They will be recommended to use the proposed route D. Sea waves are generated locally by the wind and can be very variable in direction. Some of the roughest seas are experienced when a secondary depression develops in Skagerrak or with strong NW winds over Kattegat. In the are to the S of Kobenhavn, the roughest seas are most frequently associated with strong to gale force winds from the E or SE. In the many inlets and channels the seas are generally less than over open water, although some funnelling of the wind is possible which can give rise to higher than expected seas. Owing to the land locked nature of the region, swells are much reduced. Moderate to heavy swells are possible in the N part of Kattegat following a spell of strong W winds over the North Sea, and a moderate swell develops in the S part of the Baltic Sea with persistent E winds. High sea states may lead to reduction of speed, increase of yawing and in effect increase of fuel consumption. Sea states below 10 B is not an issue for LNGC traffic, and should not lead to any problems for passage. Higher states are not so common Sea current The average currents are very weak. They are driven largely by the flow of water from rivers into the Baltic and by the ice melt. The evaporative effect, that creates the easterly surface current through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean, is relatively weak in these latitudes [3]. The net result is a flow out of the Baltic through the Kattegat. In the Gulf of Finland, there is a weak current eastwards along the southern coast and a returning westerly along the north coast. In the Gulf of Bothnia, similarly, there is a north going current up the east side and a south going current down the Swedish coast. These currents are typically about ¼ to ½ knot. Not surprisingly, there can be large local variations through channels, between islands and when there have been strong winds [1]. Effect of Sea current and sea swells is a subject to be researched, for analyzed area and given vessel hull (when it will be known). 16

17 Sea current (slight at Baltic) is not critical issue for LNGC passage. Higher values of current effects in higher drift and reduction of speed. For LNGC where there is extra power available this point has low importance factor Winter time (ice conditions) In certain weather conditions ice, formed of seawater, accumulating on the hulls and superstructures of ships can present a serious danger. Ice accumulation may occur from spray or seawater breaking over the ship when the air temperature is below the freezing point of seawater. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) informs about the risk of ice accumulation in the Danish and adjacent waters. The information is broadcasted over the Danish radio every hour on the hour and over coast radio stations (2182 khz and VHF, channel 16). (In Danish). Ice navigation is not frequent in south parts of Baltic. Icing that restricts navigation could be supported by appropriate ice breaker assistance. Detailed regulations for given vessel shall be accomplished. 3. EXISTING TRAFFIC ON ANALYZED AREA Through the area between the Bornholm Island and Polish coast approximately ships equipped with AIS (Automatic Identification System enforced to use by IMO on every passenger vessel and on most of cargo vessels >300GRT) are passing on a yearly basis. Idea of AIS might be found at: The statistical profile of ships includes 67,9% cargo ships, 16,3% tankers and 4,5% passenger ships. The main destination of eastbound vessels in transit include the ports situated in the Gulf of Gdańsk (32%), Klaipeda and Liepaja (20%) and Russian ports in the Kaliningrad region (19%). The crossing traffic operates to ports on the Bornholm Island and to Szczecin-Swinoujście and others Polish ports. Additionally large fishing activities are in place in the area off central Polish coast, which contributes to the traffic picture. Approximately vessels trade yearly between Western Baltic ports or entrances to the Baltic Sea and ports in the Gulf of Gdańsk, passing along central Polish coast. Some 20% of that traffic passes North of Slupska Bank and the rest of it uses the gateway South of Slupska Bank. Tankers represent 17% of all traffic in that area including VLCCs up to maximum accommodated draught on the Baltic (15 meters or 15.3 meters in fresh water). Some 8% of vessels there have a draught of 8 meters and more. The south-western part of the Baltic Sea consist of the large shallow offshore banks between the Island of Bornholm and western Polish coast (Ronne Bank, Adlergrund and Odrzana Bank with a minimum depth of 4,6 m). 12 nautical miles off the central Polish coast a complex of Slupska Bank exist with a minimum depth of 8.2 m. Offshore waters between the central Polish coastline and Slupska Bank consist of irregular smaller shoals scattered with numerous wrecks and stones. The shipping traffic, in order to safely transit the areas concerned, use in the majority two convenient gateways to navigate clear off shallow banks: a. between Adlerground and Odrzana Bank, with the minimum charted depth of 10.1 m over the wreck; and b. between the Slupska Bank and Polish coastline, with the minimum charted depths of 14 m or less over the shoals and wrecks. Both areas are the places where traffic converges or spreads. Additionally extensive naval exercise areas, frequently temporary closed to navigation and fishing, exist in proximity of the last mentioned area. Baltic Sea has some of the most dense maritime traffics in the world. During the recent decades, the traffic in the Baltic area has not only increased, but the nature of the traffic has changed rapidly [7]. One important change is the increase of number of ships as well their size has grown. Large numbers of islands, routes that are difficult to navigate, shallow water, render this sea especially sensitive [8]. Thanks to modern technology where AIS can be included we had the possibility to get an overview of the ship s traffic in any part of the Baltic Sea. Although the system does not take into 17

18 consideration ships under 300 GRT (small fishing boat, yachts, small coasters) seems to be the most reliable source of shipping activities. What is more the AIS data provides spatial information that can be easy to present. The main and busiest ship s routs are clearly formed and evaluation of traffic intensity can be done very quickly. Figures 1.15,1.16 and 1.17 will be presented some of the data gathered by the Helcom AIS network created and launched in July The area considered was between Skagen Strait and main Polish ports which is Świnoujście and Gdańsk. Fig Snapshot of ships traffic in the south-western part of the Baltic Sea (October 2005) [4] 18

19 Fig AIS data for one day traffic in area of Danish Straits (3 rd of October 2004) Fig Illustration of the idealized routes with traffic amounts on the area of Danish Straits (number represents amount of vessels) The main transit appears between Great Belt and Bornholm Strait and also between Sound Strait and Bornholm Strait. Great Belt Traffic stream is supported by ships passing Kiel Channel. Not much traffic can be observed south of Bornholm [9]. In according to MARIS (Maritime Accident Response Information System) data number of ships leaving /entering Świnoujście is less than 3600 a year and 19

20 less than ships leaving/entering Gdynia and Gdańsk a year. The safety of navigation and shape of traffic to and from Polish ports is strongly dependent on whole Baltic traffic. Helcom AIS currently can also provide statistical information based on the AIS data on the vessels crossing certain lines in the Baltic Sea. Fig Reporting lines of Helcom AIS [4] Fig Ships traffic in the Baltic Sea 20

21 Statistical data from four reporting lines has been used: The Skaw to illustrate traffic entering/leaving the Baltic Sea and to illustrate traffic in the Danish straits- one of the Baltic risk areas Gulf of Finland to illustrate the traffic in the GoF, which is one of the risk areas in the Baltic and one of the main routes for oil transportation Gotland West and Gotland East to illustrate the traffic in the Baltic proper. During three months of work of Helcom AIS around 13,5 thousand AIS equipped vessels entered and left the Baltic via the Skaw, about 14 thousand vessels passed Gotland and around 10 thousand entered/left the Gulf of Finland. There are about 1800 AIS equipped vessels in the Baltic Sea at any moment [4]. Shipping intensity in the Baltic in 2005 can be approximately illustrated by these numbers based on HELCOM AIS data [8]: 54 thousand AIS equipped vessels entering/leaving the Baltic via the Skaw; 56 thousand vessels passing the island of Gotland; 40 thousand entering/leaving the Gulf of Finland; Structure of the traffic Based on the HELCOM AIS information for July-October 2005 it can be stated that cargo vessels and tankers are the biggest groups of vessels in all three areas. The largest number of tankers crossing Danish Straits (Skaw).The increase of oil transportation is partly caused by new oil terminals in Russia. According to IMO data oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland increased from the 22 million tons annually in 1995 to 90 million tons in Passenger traffic is not much but crosses main routes of cargo vessels and that s why has great impact on safety of navigation It should be kept in mind that these graphs only illustrate information on AIS equipped vessels which have crossed respective reporting lines [4]. Fig.1.19 types of vessels passing The Skaw (July October 2005) [4] Draught of vessels. Vessels with a draught less than 7 meters constitute the biggest part of the ship entering/leaving the Baltic via the Skaw and with a draught more than 15 meters constitute only 1 percent of all vessels. 21

22 Fig Draught of vessels passing The Skaw (July October2005) [4] Cargo. The current data on the cargo transported in and out of the Baltic does not provide much information for consideration: over 93 % of all AIS reports indicate that vessels are transporting Other cargo. Fig Amount of cargo vessels passing the Skaw [4] According to data reported by the Contracting States to the MARIS both the number and size of the ships (especially oil tankers) have been growing during last years and now ships carrying up to 150 thousand tons of oil can be seen in the Baltic. Also the amount of transported oil has increased significantly since the year

23 Fig Amount of oil transported via 11 largest oil terminals in the East Baltic and via the Skaw (in millions of tons) [6] Fig Number of laden tankers entering Baltic via the Skaw[6] Accidents According to the reports from the Contracting States there were 374 ship accidents in the HELCOM area in The total number of accidents has been slowly increasing since 2001 and increased significantly in The increase in the number of reported accidents in 2004 can at least partially be explained by the improved reporting [5]. 23

24 Fig Number of ship accidents in Baltic[5] Groundings (53%) and collisions (23%) are the most common types of accidents observed in the Baltic Sea area in Types of accidents are presented at fig The most common accident is grounding and it is caused by: improper navigation, lack of information (not updated chart), lack of competence and other factors. Fig Types of accidents in Baltic Sea [5] Distribution of accidents is presented at 1.26, and after analysis it could be stated that most frequent are where accidents occurs is restricted area of Danich Straits (The Sund), and in ports (near ports). Accidents at open sea are not so frequent. 24

25 Fig The spatial distribution of the reported accidents occurred in south-western part of the Baltic in 2004 [6] Types of ships involved in accidents at Baltic are presented at fig Most common accidents are in group of cargo vessels and in passenger ferries. Fig Types of ships involved in accidents in 2004 [5] Summarizing existing traffic it should be stated that: Baltic Sea is specific due to many navigational restrictions (depth and horizontal), Denser traffic leads to increase of accidents, 25

26 New regulations (in force, and planned to be in future) will help to prevent accidents, Traffic separations schemes implementation will lead to decrease of accidents in these areas. It can not be stated that Baltic region is more danger than any other region of world (in means of traffic safety), and there are regions where traffic is much more denser (for example Dover Strait). One of the HELCOM activities output are definition of areas where greater risks occurs and such areas are described at fig. 28 Fig. 28 Greater risk areas at Baltic Sea 4. PLANNED TRAFFIC ON ANALYZED AREA ( ), AT 15% ACCURACY LEVEL OF ESTIMATION In order to asses growth of intensity of traffic in period there is a need to obtain economical growth at analyzed area (Baltic Sea with its surroundings Kattegat) Economical prospects to 2020 All maritime traffic in Baltic Region was analyzed by The Institute of Shipping Analysis Göteborg, SwedenBMT Transport Solutions, GmbH Hamburg Germany Centre for Maritime Studies, Turku, Finland, Maritime Outlook 2006 publication [13]. Whole traffic for 2005 of any cargo is presented as flow diagram at Figure 28. At the Fig there is presented forecast for

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