BREXIT: INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN THE UK DECIDES TO LEAP INTO THE UNKNOWN

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1 RESEARCH FOCUS 24 JUNE /5 BREXIT: INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN THE UK DECIDES TO LEAP INTO THE UNKNOWN General overview Britain votes to leave the European Union, taking investors by surprise. After the unwinding of currency positions, the market will focus on potential contagion risks and policy response. Investors stay calm, as this is not the day to act in a major way, and stick to quality. GBP weakness: we cut our 12-month target in the EUR/GBP to parity, in the GBP/USD to Look for bargains in assets you may have previously wanted to own but have always looked pricey. Stocks: US names are likely to be least affected. Sectorwise, focus on quality stocks in healthcare, information technology and consumer staples. Christian Gattiker, Head of Research +41 (0) , christian.gattiker@juliusbaer.com Christoph Rinker, Head Strategy Research +41 (0) , christoph.riniker@juliusbaer.com David A. Meier, Economic Research +41 (0) , davidalexander.meier@juliusbaer.com A historical day UK voters decided to leave the European Union by 51.9% to 48.1%. Despite close polls, this is a surprise to investors, given the strong focus on bookmakers odds earlier on. The reaction will likely go in waves. The first wave is rolling and refers to the unwinding of insurance contracts, in particular on the currency side. This will likely take place mostly today and maybe also some trading days next week. The second wave will be about contagion to other parts of the European Union: is this the end of the European Union, and other similar questions will be asked. The best way of reading this is to monitor bond spreads of peripheral European sovereigns in the coming days. Should they rise, this could indicate that the market is preparing for break-up. The third wave will be about policy reaction beyond the initial comments of European politicians and mitigating central bank interventions. This will take weeks if not months. The outcome of the UK referendum took investors by surprise. How to cope with this? 1) Stay calm, this is not the day to act in a major way, 2) stick to quality and 3) look out for bargains on assets you always wanted to own but that always looked pricey. Forex markets are showing typical shock reactions today, all the more since in the past days they probably had become too comfortable with the idea that the Brexit would be rejected. The Sunday press will surely offer a detailed analysis of the surprising outcome of the vote. It is still too early at this stage to discuss what the events mean for the UK political landscape and the succession of David Cameron, how or when Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will be triggered, or what it means for the European Union as a whole. On the currency markets, the pound sterling is suffering the most, as expected, while safe havens such as the JPY, the USD and the CHF are facing upward pressure. While for most currencies the element of surprise could abate in the next few days, we expect the pound s weakness to continue, as fundamental factors will kick in, such as the expected significant reduction of foreign direct investments. Besides the tables on page 2, we have outlined the Brexit scenario in our Research publications Plan B for Brexit dated 16 June 2016 (see Re- search Intranet portal). The UK equity market is seeing a substantial setback today and we would take the previous low of February 2016 as a marker. However, a further undershooting cannot be ruled out. We believe that such a setback would occur in a relatively short time span after the vote and should offer attractive buying opportunities. We remain quite sure that today s developments in the UK cannot happen without affecting other equity markets in Europe. First, the relationship between UK and European equities must not be underestimated. Eurozone markets are the most interlinked in terms of economics and politics. Second, discussions about a breakup in the eurozone, which are flaring up on a more or less regular basis, could be fuelled again. Consequently, we believe that other European markets could face setbacks as well. Julius Baer Research Please find important legal information at the end of this document.

2 RESEARCH FOCUS BREXIT: INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN 24 JUNE Summary of Brexit scenario Equity markets: UK equities Due to possible rising uncertainty, UK equities retest previous lows. Return of normality and lower GBP to support relative performance of UK large caps (prefer FTSE 100 to FTSE 250) Prefer FTSE 100 vs. FTSE 250. Ex-UK US stocks should be least affected. Sectorwise focus on quality stocks in healthcare, IT and consumer staples. European equities Currencies: GBP: GBP weakness to continue after initial surprise, as fundamentals may turn negative for the pound (in foreign direct investments). Other: Commodities Gold Economics: Economic growth: Spillover may affect other European markets seen due to high correlation. Peripheral markets could suffer most Revised GBP forecasts: EUR/GBP: +3M: M: 1.00 GBP/USD: +3M: M: 1.12 Possible safe havens: JPY and USD benefiting most. The classical safe haven CHF was held back by likely Swiss National Bank interventions High-yielding emerging market currencies suffering from risk-off environment. Risk-off pushes all but precious metal commodities into the red. Short-term uncertainties may lend support to gold, but high prices unlikely to last, unless wider financial market consequences materialise. Uncertainty could wipe out growth in the second half of GDP reaction is asymmetric. No change to our eurozone growth forecast. Our revised UK gross domestic product forecast: 2016: 1.4% 2017: 0.7% Central banks: Bank of England: Other central banks: Additional liquidity and forex swap lines to maintain functioning of financial markets. Further steps, such as rate cut or re-instalment of asset purchases are likely to be installed until or by the July meeting. Swiss National Bank: Under pressure to prevent a stronger CHF with eventual FX interventions. European Central Bank: Extension of asset purchases beyond March 2017 has become even more likely. Deeper negative rates seem unlikely. Federal Reserve: We do not expect Fed rate hike this year, but bring back the topic after financial possible market volatility has ebbed. Bank of Japan: Further action more likely due to the safe haven boost to the yen. Political risks: UK: Prime Minister Cameron announced that he would step down within three months. Indicated Article 50 of Lisbon Treaty to be triggered under successor. UK break-up risks: Scotland and Northern Ireland could seek separation. European Union: Brexit offers tailwinds for independence movements, could increase breakup concerns. So far, bond yield spreads have not pointed to increased break-up risks. Indications could emerge in the months to follow. Negotiations: Two years negotiation period could be extended if both parties agree. We do not expect EU to complicate the process for retaliation and deterrence purposes, as it depends on the UK s demand of roughly 7% of EU goods exports. Inflation: Effect of imported inflation due to possible pound weak- ness moderate, visible predominantly next year. Our revised UK Inflation forecast: 2016: 0.6% 2017: 1.7%

3 RESEARCH FOCUS BREXIT: INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN 24 JUNE IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION This publication has been produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). This publication series is issued regularly. Information on financial instruments and issuers is updated irregularly or in response to important events. IMPRINT Authors Christian Gattiker, Head Research, christian.gattiker@juliusbaer.com 1) David A. Meier, Economic Research, davidalexander.meier@juliusbaer.com 1) Christoph Riniker, Strategy Research, christoph.riniker@juliusbaer.com 1) 1) This analyst is employed by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). APPENDIX Analyst certification The analysts hereby certify that views about the companies discussed in this report accurately reflect their personal view about the companies and securities. 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