MEREDITH COLLEGE POLL September 18-22, 2016

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1 Key Races Close in NC North Carolina continues to be a battleground state for presidential cidates Hillary Clinton Donald Trump, as Clinton holds a percent advantage among likely voters. As the race enters the last six weeks the beginning of the critical presidential debate period, 21% of North Carolina voters report being undecided. These results suggest that more visits by the cidates their surrogates heavy advertising coverage throughout the state should continue until Election Day. Likewise, US senate challenger Deborah Ross holds a similar percent advantage over incumbent Republican Richard Burr. In the governor s race, incumbent Pat McCrory has a two-point advantage over Democratic challenger Roy Cooper, percent. Both of these races should continue to be some of the closest in the nation for their respective offices. All races are in the poll s margin of error (4.43 percent). Executive Summary The Meredith College Poll asked questions about North Carolinian s preferences in major races in the state for president, governor, U.S. senate. In addition, we asked questions about voters satisfaction with the direction of the country their enthusiasm for voting this year. The survey was conducted using a live-caller, dual frame (lline cell phone) survey of 487 registered voters of North Carolina between September 18-22, The survey has a margin of error of +/ percentage points for registered voters. Details regarding the methodology of this survey can be found at the end of this report. Voter Satisfaction with the Direction of the Country Voter Enthusiasm Nearly three-quarters (73%) of North Carolina registered voters report being dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Registered Republican voters report the highest level of dissatisfaction with the direction of the country (84%), while registered Democratic voters report the least (61%). Registered unaffiliated voters level of dissatisfaction was just below the state average (71%). The level of dissatisfaction has remained consistent since the last administration of the Meredith Poll in March. Almost two-thirds of North Carolina registered voters report being enthusiastic about voting in this year s elections, while 26 percent report being unenthusiastic. The difference between registered Democratic Republican voters is negligible with 62 percent of registered Democrats indicating enthusiasm for the elections, while 67 percent of registered Republicans are enthusiastic. The gap is just outside the poll s margin of error.

2 Among other demographic groups, African American voters seniors have the highest level of enthusiasm at 81 percent 80 percent, respectively, with those under the age of 30 being the least enthusiastic (48%). The enthusiasm numbers may bode poorly for Hillary Clinton, since the African American turnout may not approach that of , even with the high level of enthusiasm, the turnout among those under 30, as indicated by their enthusiasm level, is lower than in the previous two presidential elections. Presidential Election in North Carolina Hillary Clinton has a small lead over Donald Trump among registered voters in North Carolina (38-35%). This lead is within the margin of error. Clinton s strength comes from urban minority voters. Among women, there is a gender gap of just over 14 percentage points, but this appears lower than earlier polls have indicated. Among African American Latino voters, the gap is larger (40-points) for Clinton, but Trump enjoys a significant advantage over Clinton with white voters (almost 13 points) rural voters (almost 9 points). The two major issues important to voters in North Carolina are the economy national security (including terrorism). Clinton voters favor the economy as their top issue (45%), while Trump supporters state that national security is their top issues (43%). With just over six weeks to Election Day, acts of domestic or international terrorism could energize Trump supporters win over many of the undecided voters, causing Clinton s narrow lead to vanish. The US Senate election in North Carolina The United States senate race in North Carolina mirrors the presidential contest with Deborah Ross holding a small lead--similar to that of Clinton--over her Republican opponent Richard Burr (38-35%). In this race, Libertarian Sean Haugh barely registered any responses, but over one-quarter of voters were undecided with many respondents indicating they knew little about either of Burr or Ross. The dynamics of this race are similar to the presidential race with Ross performing better among younger voters, minority voters, those in urban areas. Burr was stronger among white voters, those over the age of 50, people who lived in urban North Carolina. It seems likely that, as Clinton goes, so does Ross, since they poll so similarly.

3 Gubernatorial Election in North Carolina The governor s race in North Carolina is just as close as the presidential senate races, but with Republican Pat McCrory holding a slight, percent, lead heading into the last six weeks of the campaign. Just as in the senate race, the Libertarian cidate, Lon Cecil, does not appear to be playing a role in the outcome of the governor s race, but onefifth of North Carolina voters are undecided in this expensive nasty competition between the sitting governor attorney general. The crosstabs of different groups show a smaller margin across the board than do the presidential senate races. Cooper, for example, has an advantage in urban areas with minority voters, while McCrory is stronger in rural areas with white voters. The differences are not as large as with Clinton Trump or Ross Burr. This is likely due to the issues at play in the governor s race. The main issues in the advertising have been education the attorney general s role in overseeing the crime lab neither side seems to be gaining an advantage on those issues. One issue that may play a significant role in the governor s race is that of civil unrest the role of police in minority communities. The poll was conducted as the Charlotte situation involving a CMPD officer killing Lamont Scott occurred the ensuing protests. Although issues surrounding these events did not register among the top issues facing the nation, almost 10 percent of voters, including a large number in the Charlotte area identified civil rights police-community relations as their top issue. Topline Results Are you satisfied with the direction of the country? All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country today? Satisfied 90 18% Dissatisfied % Don t Know 29 6% Refused 11 2% How likely is that you will vote? How likely is it that you will vote in the North Carolina general election on or before November 8? Very likely % Somewhat likely 56 12% Neither likely nor unlikely 9 2% Somewhat unlikely 16 3% Very unlikely 24 5% Don t know/refused 7 8%

4 How much enthusiasm for voting? Which of the following statements describes your enthusiasm for voting in 2016? Very enthusiastic % Somewhat enthusiastic % Neither enthusiastic nor 38 8% unenthusiastic Somewhat unenthusiastic 34 7% Very unenthusiastic 91 19% Don t know/refused 10 2% Who would you vote for (president)? If the presidential election was held today, which of the following cidates would you be most likely to vote for? Hillary Clinton % Donald Trump % Gary Johnson 28 6% Someone else 47 10% Don t know/refused 50 11% Who would you vote for (US senate)? If the United States Senate election in North Carolina was held today, which of the following cidates would you be most likely to vote for? Richard Burr % Deborah Ross % Sean Haugh 3 1% Someone else 35 7% Don t know/refused 90 19% Who would you vote for (governor)? If the election for North Carolina governor was held today, which of the following cidates would you be most like to vote for? Roy Cooper % Pat McCrory % Lon Cecil 3 1% Someone else 27 6% Don t know/refused 65 14% Most important issues What do you think is the most important issue in this year s presidential election?

5 Economy/Jobs 27.7% National Security/Internal Affairs 25.4% Government Functioning/Transparency/Debt 12% Immigration 8.3% Morality 8.1% Health Care 6.3% Education 4.4% Other 7.8% Demographics Party ID Democrats 42.1% Libertarian.1% Republicans 36.4% Unaffiliated 21.5% Sex/Gender Male 41% Female 59% Income Less than $25,000 13% $25,000 to $50,000 28% $50,000 to $75,000 24% More than $75,000 21% Unknown 14% Race White 67% Black 21% Other 11% Age % % % %

6 Location 1 Rural 52% Urban 48% Phone Type Lline 61% Cell 39% Cross Tabulations President Urban Rural Men Women White Minority Age (50 under) Age (51 older) Hillary 46.2% 31% 35.7% 43.4% 31.4% 58% 41.3% 35.2% Clinton Donald 32.1% 40.6% 40% 29.2% 44.3% 17.6% 33.4% 38.7% Trump Gary 6.1% 4.8% 5.9% 8.5% 7.2% 2.1% 8% 4.2% Johnson Undecided 15.6% 23.6% 18.4% 18.9% 17.1% 22.3% 17.3% 21.9% US Senate Race Urban Rural Men Women White Minority Age (50 under) Age (51 older) Richard 31.7% 40.1% 41.7% 32.7% 39.1% 29.2% 31.2% 38% Burr Deborah 42.4% 33.9% 35.9% 40.2% 36.2% 40.6% 43.1% 32.3% Ross Sean * * 0.5% * * * * * Haugh Undecided 25.7% 26.1% 21.9% 27.1% 24.2% 30.2% 25.7% 29.7% 1 The 15 urban counties, as determined by the US Census Bureau, are: Buncombe, Cabarrus, Cumberl, Durham, Forsyth, Gaston, Guilford, Iredell, Johnston, Mecklenburg, New Hanover, Orange, Pitt, Union, Wake.

7 *Sean Haugh s responses were so low that they were insignificant once broken out by group. NC Governor s Race Urban Rural Men Women White Minority Age (50 under) Age (51 older) Roy 43.2% 36.5% 38.4% 41.2% 34.2% 43.2% 41.3% 37.2 Cooper Pat 37.4% 42.8% 41.3% 40.5% 45% 38.1% 40.1% 42% McCrory Lon Cecil * *.2%.3% * * * * Undecided 19.3% 20.7% 21.1% 18% 20.8% 18.6% 18.6% 20.8% Methodological Information Mode: Population & Sample Area registered Live Interviewer RDD Telephone Interviews (Dual Frame: Cell Phone Llines) North Carolina; Adults (Primarily English speaking voters with some Spanish speaking voters) Dates in the field: Registered Voter Sample Size 487 Registered Voter Margin of Error ±4.43% Confidence Level 95% Weighting Variables Age, Race, Gender Procedures Used for Conducting the Poll The Meredith College Poll uses a stratified rom sample of households with telephones wireless (cell) telephone numbers. Please direct questions about the Meredith College Poll s methodology to David McLennan ( or dbmclennan@meredith.edu). The Meredith College Poll uses CATI system software (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) for the administration of surveys. We attempt to reach each working

8 telephone number in the sample up to five times. We only interview residents of North Carolina who are over 18. The Meredith College Poll conducted the survey in English with two students who are fluent in Spanish. Live interviewers called from 5:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. Sunday-Thursday. Additional Methodological Decisions Don t Know Refused Options All questions include an option for respondents to volunteer don t know or to refuse. In most questions, callers do not prompt these possible responses. Completion Criteria An interview is a complete only if a respondent progresses through the entire survey. Respondents who hang up before completing the last question or refuse to more than 10 percent of the questions are incompletes. Sampling Survey Sampling International, LLC, provide samples of telephone numbers. To equalize the probability of telephone selection, sample telephone numbers are systematically stratified according to subpopulation strata (e.g., a zip code, a county, etc.), which yields a sample from telephone exchanges in proportion to each exchange's share of telephone households in the population of interest. Estimates of telephone households in the population of interest are generally obtained from several databases. Samples of household telephone numbers are distributed across all eligible blocks of numbers in proportion to the density of listed households assigned in the population of interest according to a specified subpopulation stratum. Upon determining the projected (or preferred) sample size, a sampling interval is calculated by summing the number of listed residential numbers in each eligible block within the population of interest dividing that sum by the number of sampling points assigned to the population. From a rom start between zero the sampling interval, blocks are selected systematically in proportion to the density of listed household "working blocks." We use SSI because they produce valid samples for many polling organizations, including the Meredith College Poll. Sampling errors statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting at each of these stages. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level is plus or minus 4.43 percentage points for results based on the full sample (n=364). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

9 The Meredith College Poll Team Dr. David McLennan is Director of the Meredith Poll a Visiting Professor of Political Science at Meredith College. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Austin. Dr. Whitney Ross Manzo is the Assistant Director of the Meredith Poll an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Meredith College. She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Texas, Dallas. Faculty members in the History/Political Science program supported the poll helped recruit students to work as callers. Dr. Greg Virtarbo is chair of the department has provided a great deal of support for this project. The poll operates under the auspices of the School of Arts Humanities, led by Dean Garry Walton, Ph.D. The Meredith College administration, led by Dr. Jo Allen, president of the College, Dr. Matthew Puslosny, Provost of the College, fully support the Meredith College Poll as part of its service commitment to state, regional, national constituents. Meredith College fully funds the Meredith College Poll. This permits the Meredith College Poll to operate as a neutral, non-biased, non-partisan resource. Meredith College students administer the survey as part of the College s commitment to civic engagement producing strong women. For more information on the Meredith College Poll this survey, visit or Contact: David B. McLennan, Ph.D (Office) (Cell)

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