IFTA 23rd Annual Conference. Friday, October 8, Yukitoshi Higashino, MFTA

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "IFTA 23rd Annual Conference. Friday, October 8, 2010. Yukitoshi Higashino, MFTA"

Jeffry Sherman
7 years ago
Views:

1 IFTA 23rd Annul Conference Fridy, Octoer 8, 2010 Border Line Pttern for the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Cndlestick Chrt) - Positioning with Bse Lines nd Timing for Time-Bsed Loss Cutting- 1 Yukitoshi Higshino, MFTA

2 Five Fctors of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (hereinfter Cndlestick Chrt) (P) S&P500 (dily chrt: June 2009 to August 2010) Conversion line, se line, leding spn 1, leding spn 2, nd lgging spn re the five fctors of the cndlestick chrt, nd chrt showing those five fctors is the kinko hyo (equilirium chrt). Conversion line April Leding spn 1 Aug Fe Leding spn 2 July July 8 Bse line Lgging spn /6 2009/6 2009/7 2009/8 2009/9 2009/ / / /1 2010/2 2010/3 2010/4 2010/5 2010/6 2010/7 2010/8 2010/9 2010/9 2

(equilirium chrt). Conversion line April 1219.80 Leding spn 1 Aug. 9 1129.24 1050 1000 950 Fe. 5 1044.50 Leding spn 2 July 1 1010.

3 Idel Top nd Bottom Pttern in Cndlestick Chrt Doule ottom Doule top c d The idel period from low price to nd from high price c to d is within dys. Why? 3

4 Bottom Pttern Shifting from Fll to Rise Ⅰ Stock price Within dys from the expected low "," the price goes ove to efore turning upwrds. Ⅱ Ⅲ Within dys from the expected low "," the price goes elow "" to "" efore turning upwrds. Strting from the expected low "," the price flls to "" which is higher thn nd then rises, ut in period tht exceeds dys. 4

Ⅱ Ⅲ Within dys from the expected low "," the price goes elow "" to "" efore turning

5 Ceiling Pttern for Shifting from Rise to Fll Ⅰ c d The price goes to lower d thn the expected high "c" within dys nd then goes down. d Ⅱ c The price goes to the higher d thn the expected high "c" within dys nd then goes down. Ⅲ c d The price does not exceed the expected high "c" nd goes down fter hitting "d" ut in period of over dys from "c." 5

d Ⅱ c The price goes to the higher d thn the Ⅲ c d The price does not exceed the

6 Importnt Points in Bse line nd Lgging Spn Border line - The idel top-ottom pttern tht introduces the dily chnge concept of dys from the se line to the lgging spn. Bse line: the middle price etween the highest nd lowest price in the pst dys including the current dy (highest price in period of dys + lowest price in period of dys) 2 Lgging spn: current dy s closing price projected into the pst y dys including the current dy 6

Bse line: the middle price etween the highest nd lowest price in the pst dys including the current dy

7 Wht is the Bse Line? DAX nd se line (dily chrt: Mrch 2010 to August 2010) April dys /3 2010/3 2010/4 2010/5 My /6 July * used here is the importnt sic vlue in the concept of the kinko hyo (cndlestick chrt). 2010/7 Bse line (highest + lowest in the pst dys)/2 On the following dy, the sme clcultion is conducted y including the prices of the new dy ut excluding the prices of the oldest dy in the se line clcultion period. 2010/8 2010/9 2010/10 7

37 * used here is the importnt sic vlue in the concept of the kinko hyo (cndlestick chrt).

8 Wht is the Lgging Spn? SX5E nd lgging spn (dily chrt: My 2009 to August 2010) Upturn Downturn Jn April Downturn Aug Nov Fe Upturn My A line connecting dily vlues in the pst dys including tody s closing * used here is the importnt sic vlue in the concept of the kinko hyo (cndlestick chrt). 2009/5 2009/6 2009/7 2009/8 2009/9 2009/ / / /1 2010/2 2010/3 2010/3 2010/4 2010/5 2010/6 2010/7 2010/8 2010/9 2010/10 8

10 A line connecting dily vlues in the pst dys including tody s closing * used here is the importnt sic vlue in the concept of the

9 Wht the se line mens in the order line. Bse line: (highest in dys + lowest in dys) 2 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Bse line Stock price When the price mkes n upturn within dys from the expected low "," the se line goes up in dys from the expected low "," nd therefore stock prices tend to go up. When the price goes elow the expected low "" within dys from "," the se line cnnot go up nd provides resistnce to the increse in stock prices, which increses the possiility of the price going down. When the price does not go down elow the expected low "" nd mkes n upturn fter period of dys, the se line moves sidewys nd then drops to ecome resistnt to the rising of stock prices. 9

dys from the expected low "," nd therefore stock prices tend to go up.

10 The softer the downtrend, the stronger the mrket (se line). Why is tht? Stock price Ⅰ Bse line When dip to "" is strong reltive to the expected low "," the leveling period of the se line tends to e extended. In tht period, if the stock price does not go ck up nd exceed the high, the high of the se line during the clcultion period ecomes lower, therey cusing the se line to drop gin. Ⅱ When dip to "" is wek reltive to the expected low "," it is reltively more likely tht the price will go up ove the recovery high. Therefore, the high of the se line during the clcultion period go higher, nd the uptrend of the se line continues, mking it likely to crete stronger mrket. 10

In tht period, if the stock price does not go ck up nd exceed the high, the high of the se line during the clcultion period ecomes lower, therey cusing the se line to

11 Wht the lgging spn mens in the order line. Lgging spn: current dy s dily closing price projected into the pst y dys Ⅰ Ⅱ Lgging spn Stock price When the price mkes n upturn within dys from the expected low "" fter hitting "," then the lgging spn exceeds the stock price. (upturn or uy signl). When the price hits "," which is lower thn the expected low "" within dys from "," then the lgging spn remins elow the stock price. (continued downturn or sell signl). Ⅲ When the price does not go down elow the expected low "" ut tkes n upturn fter hitting "" in period of over dys from "," the lgging spn is highly likely to go down elow the stock price gin. (downturn fter upturn, sell signl). 11

hitting "," then the lgging spn exceeds the stock price. (upturn or uy signl).

12 The softer the downtrend, the stronger the mrket (lgging spn). Why is tht? Stock price Lgging spn Ⅰ When the dip to "" is strong reltive to the expected low "," the lgging spn tends to touch the stock price of dys go nd thus is more likely to fll elow the stock price. There is high possiility of ecoming downturn. Ⅱ When the dip to "" is soft reltive to the expected low "," the lgging spn tends not to touch the stock price of dys go nd is thus reltively less likely to fll elow the stock price. There is low possiility of ecoming downturn. 12

dys go nd thus is more likely to fll elow the stock price. There is high possiility of ecoming downturn.

13 Bsic Pttern for the Border Line The order line is composed of the idel ptterns of the lgging line nd the se line. Stock price Lgging spn Bse line c d An idel cse is tht the line does not go down elow the se line nd mkes n upturn in out dys from the second lowest ottom. An idel cse is tht the line does not go up ove the se line ut drops gin out dys from the second highest pek. 13

Stock price Lgging spn Bse line c d An idel cse is tht the line does not go down elow the se

14 The Strong Border Line Pttern nd the Temporl Loss Cut The vlue goes ove or flls elow the recovery high or the immedite low within dys. The se line continues to rise, nd the stock price shows strong up trend. Stock price Lgging spn Loss cutting due to the fll of the se line Bse line c d Loss cutting due to the rise of the se line The se line continues to fll, nd the stock price shows strong down trend. 14

The se line continues to rise, nd the stock price shows strong up trend.

15 E Clcultion fter the Border Line (Setting of the Trget) 3E E E 3E A rise from the second lowest ottom or drop from the second highest pek is often ccompnied y gp. Doule of the increment or decrement of the initil move ecomes n equilirium point. 15

ottom or drop from the second highest pek is often ccompnied y gp.

16 Equilirium Point is the Arrngement of the Lterl Axis nd Verticl Axis. Bsic vlues (9, 17,, 33, 42, 51, 65, 76, 83, 97, 101, 129 ) Equilirium point (importnt chnge dy) Stock price No. of dys Equivlent vlues ( ) Equilirium point (importnt chnge dy) Stock price No. of dys 16

17 Time Theory (Concept of Equivlent Vlue) I I I V I N V I V V V N N I N V N N 17

18 Itochu Corp. (8001, dily chrt) Jnury 2003 to Novemer Low within dys 18

19 Nomur Holdings, Inc. (8604 dily chrt) Novemer 2002 to Septemer

20 Mrueni Corp. (8002 dily chrt) High within dys Mrch 2008 to Mrch

21 AAPL UW (dily chrt Fe to April 2009) ($) My 14, Ferury 2008 to April Sept. 18, Jn. 20, /2/1 08/3/3 08/4/1 08/4/29 08/5/28 08/6/25 08/7/24 08/8/21 08/9/19 08/10/17 08/11/14 08/12/15 09/1/14 09/2/12 09/3/13 09/4/10 09/4/30 21

22 Sumitomo Metl Mining (5713 dily chrt ) 150( ) August 2008 to July

23 Sumitomo Metl Mining (5713 dily chrt ) My 2010 to Septemer

24 NTT DOCOMO(9437 dily chrt ) Octoer 2009 to August

25 Deutsche Bnk ( dily chrt ) Octoer 2008 to Septemer /10 08/11 08/12 09/2 09/3 09/5 09/6 09/8 09/9 09/10 09/12 10/1 10/3 10/4 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/10 25

26 SAP( dily chrt ) August 2007 to Mtch /8 07/8 07/8 07/9 07/9 07/10 07/10 07/11 07/11 07/12 07/12 08/1 08/1 08/2 08/2 08/3 08/3

27 Nomur Holdings, Inc. (8604 dily chrt) Mrch 2010 to Septemer

28 Mizuho Finncil Group(8411 dily chrt ) Mrch 2010 to Septemer

29 Cution This report is intended to provide informtion tht helps the user to mke proper investment judgments nd does not im to promote prticulr investments. The dt contined in this report re sed on relile informtion, ut we do not gurntee the correctness or integrity of the dt. The informtion contined in this report is ment for your own use. It is prohiited for this report to e provided or redistriuted to ny third person, or modified or chnged in ny wy. It is lso prohiited tht copies or modified versions of this report e ssigned or trnsferred to or used y ny third person. 29 T&C Finncil Reserch,Inc. Yukitoshi Higshino y_higshino@tndcfr.com

Polynomial Functions. Polynomial functions in one variable can be written in expanded form as ( )

Polynomial Functions. Polynomial functions in one variable can be written in expanded form as ( ) Polynomil Functions Polynomil functions in one vrible cn be written in expnded form s n n 1 n 2 2 f x = x + x + x + + x + x+ n n 1 n 2 2 1 0 Exmples of polynomils in expnded form re nd 3 8 7 4 = 5 4 +