Greater Richmond Regional Housing Trends: Changing Demographics and Housing Needs

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1 Greater Richmond Regional Housing Trends: Changing Demographics and Housing Needs Henrico County Planning Commission April 15, 2010 Virginia Housing Development Authority

2 VHDA has identified six major regions of Virginia with differing economic, demographic, and housing profiles. 1

3 Greater Richmond This region includes the Richmond MSA with the exception of Caroline County, which is beginning to be pulled into the economic orbit of Greater Washington. The region also includes the Farmville area, which is becoming more closely tied to Greater Richmond as employment and residential growth move west. Currently, and historically, this region most closely mirrors overall statewide trends. 2

4 The Impact of Demographic Change on Housing Demand 3

5 Demographic change shapes housing demand. The housing downturn has focused attention on the impact of mortgage lending on home construction and overall market health. Less attention has been paid to the critical role that shifting demographics play in shaping the magnitude and nature of housing demand. We are now entering a new market cycle that will be heavily influenced by large shifts in housing demand driven by demographic change. 4

6 Housing needs change with age. Housing demand is driven by: New household formation especially new young households Changes in residence that occur as households age through the life cycle Each stage of life brings the need for different types of housing in terms of size, cost and location. 5

7 Four broad stages of life drive changes in housing choices. Young Households (under age 35) Need affordable rental housing and starter homes Middle Age Households (ages 35-54) Tend to be larger (need more space) and/or more affluent many are able and willing to trade up Empty Nesters and Younger Retirees (ages 55-74) Predominately homeowners who choose to age in place Older Seniors (age 75 and older) Maintenance and use of their existing home may become burdensome If so, then they may seek alternative senior housing options 6

8 The coming housing cycle will look different from the one now ending. The differential size of successive generations causes differing types of need to dominate in each housing cycle. In the cycle just ended, demand was dominated by affluent, middle age Baby Boomers who traded up to larger homes. Their numbers peaked in 2005 and will now decline steadily over the next 15 years as aging Boomers are replaced by the much smaller Baby Bust ( Generation X ). 7

9 The trade-up era is over. Change in Greater Richmond Adult Population by Age Group Young Renters & 1st-Time Homebuyers 11, ,572-9,054 23,054 22,751 2,973 Middle Age Trade-up Homebuyers 22,699 38,390 Projected Population Change ,638 34,358 19,568 Empty Nester & Younger Senior Homeowners 12,519 36,239 36,977 3,153 Older Seniors with Special Needs Estimated Population Change ,294 5,772 7,685 7,804 We are now entering a new market cycle in which young households, empty nesters and younger retirees will dominate. 8,331 8,324 11,938 10,572 2,314 2, ,475-12,221 Source: U.S. Census and estimates based on Census Bureau and VEC Virginia population projections 8

10 Generation Y will bring a resurgence in young households. Change in Households Under Age 35 Greater Richmond Region -2,500 24, Source: U.S. Census and estimates based on Census Bureau and VEC Virginia population projections Baby Boomers children Generation Y are now entering adulthood. Today, they are impacting college campuses and driving higher demand for student housing. Soon, we will see significant increases in young independent households that will demand smaller, more affordable housing choices. 9

11 Empty nesters and younger retirees will have less impact on demand. Young Adults 36.0% 27.4% Share of population that moved, 2007 to 2008 Richmond MSA Mobility rates are high among young households, but decline with age. 21.9% 16.4% 12.1% 9.7% 8.1% 7.7% 6.3% Empty Nesters and Young Seniors 4.2% 3.7% 6.3% In the past, the vast majority of younger retirees have chosen to age in place Age Group Source: 2008 American Community Survey 10

12 Until the downturn, Baby Boomers were seen as ongoing market drivers. The sheer size of the Baby Boom generation was expected to drive high future demand for trade-down homes and vacation homes. Their relatively high incomes and substantial built-up home equity were expected to fuel this demand. While those wants are unlikely to change, the magnitude of Baby Boomers effective demand is now in question. 11

13 Current economic conditions may reshape Baby Boomer choices. 32.3% Home Equity Retirement Accounts All Other Assets Home equity makes up the largest single share of household net worth. In light of steep declines in home and stock values, Boomers may choose to age-in-place in order to rebuild the equity needed to fund their retirement. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation,

14 Today s housing stock is not adequate to meet emerging needs. Relatively little starter home and new rental construction occurred in the recent housing cycle. Except in the fastest growing regions, existing apartments and starter homes that were vacated by Baby Boomers trading up to newly built larger homes, served much of the needs of Generation X. Now, as Generation X replaces Baby Boomers in the trade up market, and Generation Y forms independent households, we are facing an over-supply of larger trade up homes and a shortage of smaller affordable units. 13

15 Quality, affordable rental housing will be especially needed. 56.4% Share of Richmond MSA Households that Rent, % 15.0% 25.5% Under Age Group A majority of young households are renters, while middle age and older households mainly own their homes. In the past housing cycle, a large share of rental investment involved upgrading of existing properties. In the coming cycle, a larger net increase in rental units will be needed in order to accommodate the growth in young households. Source: 2008 American Community Survey 14

16 Generation Y may have more difficulty achieving homeownership. Average credit card debt among households age 25 to 34 with credit card debt (2004 dollars) +52% $2,873 $4, Source: Survey of Consumer Finance, 1989 and 2004 Today, young households are economically stressed compared to older households. Credit card debt has risen dramatically among young households, and many are burdened by student loans. Significant tightening of credit standards and down payment requirements may delay home purchase by Generation Y despite lower home prices. 15

17 Housing affordability will be a growing issue in the next cycle. Median income by age as a share of overall median household income Richmond MSA 51% 93% 115% 134% 111% 74% 56% Under to to to to to Age Group Overall Median In the past housing cycle, demand was concentrated in the age group with the highest income. Now, demand is shifting to age groups with more limited means. The current surplus of trade up homes is mismatched with future needs. Source: 2000 Census 16

18 Local Policy Implications of Shifting Housing Demand 17

19 Affordability for young workers will challenge growing localities. Housing affordability is becoming a key issue in retaining and attracting an adequate workforce. Energy costs and traffic congestion are making distant exurban home construction a poorer alternative for young workers seeking housing they can afford. Local failure to address affordability may lead to workforce stagnation as Baby Boomers retire and younger workers seek more affordable and desirable work locations. 18

20 The existing stock does not meet the needs of people with disabilities. People with disabilities lack access to affordable, accessible housing. Senior households may choose to age in place, but their homes may not be suited to the array of disabilities that come with age. Retro-fitting of existing homes remains costly and difficult. There will be growing demand for a wide array of new housing incorporating Universal Design. 19

21 New local strategies are needed to facilitate more affordable development. The current proffer system and large-lot zoning will be difficult to sustain as demand shifts from trade up homes to smaller, more affordable units. Local governments will need to partner with homebuilders to reduce development costs while maintaining the long-term quality of the housing stock and the vitality of local communities. Despite current high residential vacancies, new affordable housing construction will be needed once the market recovers, prices stabilize and household growth resumes. 20

22 There are positive signs of changing attitudes and practices. Generation Y is embracing more urban lifestyles and housing preferences that will support needed changes in land use and development. Public support is growing for more vibrant mixed-income and mixed-use communities that can accommodate an array of housing options serving multiple generations demands and needs. 21

23 Development practices can be adapted to fit the new market reality. Working together, local governments, community groups and developers can build consensus on new models of housing development that will enable communities to grow and thrive in the coming cycle of demographic and housing market change. 22

24 Barry Merchant Senior Policy Analyst VHDA 601 South Belvidere Street Richmond, VA Virginia Housing Development Authority 877-VHDA-123 vhda.com 23

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