A Livestock Sector Crossroads?

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1 A Livestock Sector Crossroads? 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas City Federal Reserve July 15-16, 2014 Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University

2 Outline Overview of global pork and beef markets North American pork and beef markets Global trade issues, opportunities and challenges

3 World Pork Market Situation

4 Major World Pork Production MILLION METRIC TONS

5 Major Pork Producing and Consuming Countries, 2013 PRODUCTION 1. China 2. EU USA 4. Brazil 5. Russia 6. Vietnam 7. Canada* 8. Philippines 9. Japan 10. Mexico CONSUMPTION 1. China 2. EU USA 4. Russia 5. Brazil 6. Japan 7. Vietnam 8. Mexico 9. South Korea** 10. Philippines

6 Mill MT PORK PRODUCTION Carcass Weight Canada China Mexico Vietnam Philippines S. Korea Russian Federation European Union Brazil US Data Source: USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

7 World Pork Exports, Major Exporting Countries Million Metric Tons

8 Major Pork Trading Countries, 2013 EXPORTS 1. USA 2. EU Canada 4. Brazil 5. China 6. Chile 7. Mexico IMPORTS 1. Japan 2. Russia 3. Mexico 4. China 5. Hong Kong 6. USA 7. South Korea 8. Canada 9. Ukraine 10. Australia

9 Mill MT 2.5 PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Brazil EU China Chile Canada Mexico US Data Source: USDA-FAS /03/14

10 Mill MT 1.4 PORK IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA-FAS Japan Russia China Hong Kong S Korea Mexico US /03/14

11 European Union: Pork Exports ,000 METRIC TONS Exports

12 Russia: Pork Imports ,000 METRIC TONS

13 China: Pork Production and Consumption MILLION METRIC TONS PROD CONS

14 China: Pork Imports 1,000 METRIC TONS

15 Canada: Pork Trade ,000 METRIC TONS Exports Imports

16 Mexico: Pork Trade 1,000 METRIC TONS Imports Exports

17 United States: Pork Trade Projected ,000 METRIC TONS Exports Imports

18 Mil. Pounds 1600 MAJOR US PORK EXPORT MARKETS Carcass Weight, Annual Japan Canada Mexico China Avg. 2007/ Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-19 05/28/14

19 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 05/07/14

20 Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-73 05/06/14

21 Bil. $ 6 US PORK INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Total Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-75 02/11/14

22 Global Pork Market Trends Increased global pork production and trade China Beta Agonists (Ractopamine) Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) U.S. Exports to Mexico COOL

23 World Beef Market Situation

24 Major World Beef Production MILLION METRIC TONS

25 Major Beef Producing and Consuming Countries, 2013 PRODUCTION 1. USA 2. Brazil 3. EU China 5. India 6. Argentina 7. Australia * 8. Mexico 9. Pakistan 10. Russia CONSUMPTION 1. USA 2. Brazil 3. EU China 5. Argentina 6. Russia 7. India 8. Mexico 9. Pakistan 10. Japan **

26 Mill MT BEEF AND VEAL PRODUCTION Carcass Weight Canada China Mexico Australia India Argentina Russian Federation European Union Brazil US Data Source: USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014

27 World Beef Exports, Major Exporting Countries Million Metric Tons

28 Major Beef Trading Countries, 2013 EXPORTS 1. Brazil 2. India 3. Australia 4. USA 5. New Zealand 6. Uruguay 7. Canada 8. Paraguay 9. EU Belarus IMPORTS 1. Russia 2. USA 3. Japan 4. Hong Kong 5. China 6. EU South Korea 8. Venezuela 9. Canada 10. Chile

29 Mill MT 2.5 BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Brazil India Uruguay Australia Canada New Zealand US Data Source: USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center /03/14

30 Mill MT 1.2 BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Japan Russian Federation Mexico South Korea Hong Kong US 2014 Data Source: USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center 04/03/14

31 India: Beef Exports 1,000 METRIC TONS

32 China: Beef Production and Consumption MILLION METRIC TONS PROD CONS

33 China: Beef Imports 600 1,000 METRIC TONS

34 European Union: Beef Trade 1,000 METRIC TONS Exports Imports

35 Brazil: Beef Production and Consumption MILLION METRIC TONS Prod Cons

36 Brazil: Beef Exports ,000 METRIC TONS

37 Australia: Beef Exports 1,000 METRIC TONS

38 Canada: Beef Trade 700 1,000 METRIC TONS Exports Imports

39 Source: SIAVI

40 Mexico: Beef Trade 600 1,000 METRIC TONS Imports Exports

41 United States: Beef Trade Projected 1,000 METRIC TONS Exports Imports

42 U.S. Beef Exports Major Markets lbs Carcass Wt OTHER KOREA MEXICO CANADA JAPAN

43 Mil. Head BEEF PRODUCTION vs. CATTLE INVENTORY Inventory on January 1, U.S. Commercial Beef Production Bil. Pounds Total Cattle Inventory Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-23 08/10/12

44 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-13 05/28/14

45 Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-70 05/06/14

46 Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-71 02/11/14

47 Bil. $ 4 US BEEF INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Total Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-72 05/28/14

48 Global Beef Market Trends India as a major beef exporter Increased Chinese beef imports Market access Drought Australia, U.S. North America Reduced production will impact beef exports and imports, Fully integrated NAFTA markets

49 Pork and Beef Industry Issues Market Access Beta Agonists (Ractopamine) COOL Disease Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) Sustainability/Environmental Concerns Comparative Advantage/Regional Production Changes

50 Corn Price Crop year average, $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $ , 2013 Projected

51 Change in Beef Cow Inventory, January 1, U.S. Ave., % -21.1% -7.0% -5.0% -5.9% -5.5% -11.0% +6.8% -5.3% -3.4% -15.9% +6.1, % +2.0% -7.4% -5.7% -12.0% -4.2% -1.75, % -3.7%, % -12.4% -9.4% -13.6% -8.2% -2.3% +5.6% -23.1% +2.4% -16.2% -14.3% -2.3% -17.9% -2.9% +13.3% -7.5% -8.2% -7.7%

52 Percent Change in Pasture Acreage, % U.S. Ave., -3.6 % -13.1% -3.0% -1.6% -1.1% +0.2% -2.4% +2.6% +0.30% +0.2% -5.7% -31.0% -4.9% -3.8% -7.2% -4.4% -1.4% -15.9% -23.6% -15.1% -21.2% -16.6% -14.8% -2.6% -11.5% -18.9% -9.6% -9.9% -1.4% -20.8% -8.7% -19.0% -9.7% -23.5% +5.8%

53 The Weekly Newsletter From OSU Animal Science and Agricultural Economics Send to

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