Population and Development in Jamaica with reference to the MDGS

Transcription

1 Population and Development in Jamaica with reference to the MDGS Presenter Mr. Easton Williams Population Unit Planning Institute of Jamaica June 14, 2009 World Population Day

2 General Perspectives on Population and Development Countries are poor because their populations are growing too rapidly (high fertility) Policy Response: Family Planning is the solution

3 General Perspectives Countries are poor because they are underdeveloped Policy Response: Development is the solution (Popular slogan, Development is the best contraceptive )

4 General Perspectives Countries are poor because they are underdeveloped and their population is growing too rapidly Policy Response: Implement policies for development and reduce population growth

5 Demographic Transition Model Provides a general framework for analyzing population change over time. Developed countries have moved from high birth and deaths rates to low birth and death rates. Developing countries are expected to make the same transition.

6 Developed Countries Demographic Transition Trends Rates s 1900s 1950s Periods CBR CDR

7 Demographic Transition Model Developing Countries In its simplest form, the model posits that poor countries will transit the following board stages: (a) From high births rates and death rates with low population growth and low development (b) Through declining birth and death rates with high population growth and moderate development (c) To low birth and death rates with low population growth and developed country status.

8 Jamaica s s Demographic Transition Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, various years

9 Jamaica s s Demographic Transition Jamaica is currently at an intermediate stage in its demographic transition Population growth has been below 1.0 per cent since 1998 Population growth rate is influenced by declining natural increase and high external migration. Fertility, Mortality rates and migration influence the age structure of the population

10 Population Structure Population structure is usually classified into three main groups: Child Population (0-14 yrs) Working Age Population (15-64 yrs) Dependent Elderly Population (65+) Jamaica population structure is changing Changes being impacted mainly by lower fertility and mortality rates

11 Characteristics of a Population in Transition The child population is decreasing The working age and elderly population are increasing Mean household size is declining Total age dependency ratio is declining The increase in the working age population creates a demographic bonus which is a window of opportunity for economic development.

12 Total Population of Jamaica Total Population 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Years Total Population Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)

13 Child Population of Jamaica , ,000 Child Population 700, , , , , , , Years 0-14 Age Group Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)

14 Elderly Population of Jamaica Dependent Elderly Population 500, , , , , Years 65+ Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)

15 Working A ge Population Working Age Population of Jamaica ,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Years Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)

16 3,500,000 Age Structural Transition of Population, Jamaica Number of Persons 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Years C hild Population Dependent Ederly Working Age Total Population Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)

17 Population Pyramid, Male 2001 Female

18 Population Pyramid, Male 2020 Female

19 Population Pyramid, 2050 Male Female

20 Population and the MDGs with focus on Economic Growth, Poverty and Health

21 (1) Population and Economic Growth Does population growth undermines economic growth in Jamaica?

22 Population and Economic Growth The debate at the global level is ongoing. Prior to the 1990s, data for some developing countries did not support the general position that high population growth correlates with low economic growth. However the global data, post 1990s, correlates good with high population growth and low economic growth. Jamaica s experience, post 1990s, would suggest that population growth is not a real problem hindering economic growth.

23 Population and Economic Growth Real GDP per capita and Population Growth Rate ( ) Growth Rates Per Capita Real GDP Grow th Rate Population Grow th Rate Source: STATIN

24 2) Population and Poverty Does population growth and poverty correlates? MDG Goal: Eradicate Poverty and extreme hunger

25 Population and Poverty Prevalence of Absolute Poverty Despite the low levels of real GDP growth experienced over the last three decades, Jamaica has still managed to reduce the prevalence of absolute poverty. The eradication of absolute poverty is the first goals of the list of MDGs. Target is to half the proportion of people living below the poverty line between 1990 and 2015

26 Population and Poverty Prevalence of Absolute Poverty Jamaica has achieved this target since 2005 In 1990 the population living below the poverty line was estimated at 28.4%. In 2007 this was reduced to 9.8%.

27 % Prevalence of Poverty Population and Poverty Absolute Poverty Prevalence Rates, Years Source: Jamaica Survey of Living conditions, 2000, 2007 Jamaica

28 Population and Poverty Prevalence of Absolute Poverty by Regions, % Prevalence of Poverty Source: Jamaica Survey of Living conditions, 2000, Years KMA Other Towns Jamaica Rural Areas

29 (3)Fertility and Contraceptive Prevalence MDG Target: Universal access to reproductive health

30 Fertility and Contraception Fertility Jamaica fertility rate has been declining from as early as the late 1960s. Declining fertility rates are being impacted by increasing access to reproductive health services and other factors including education and labour force participation Years Rates p p Source: Demographic statistics, STATIN, various years

31 Fertility and Contraception Fertility Trends, Women Years Births per Years Source: Reproductive Health Survey, NFPB

32 Fertility and Contraception Adolescent Fertility Rates, Births per Years Source: Reproductive Health Survey, NFPB

33 Fertility and Contraception One of the targets of MDGs # 5: Universal Access to reproductive health Status of Target: On Track Indicators: a. Contraceptive Prevalence Rate b. Unmet needs for family planning

34 Fertility and Contraception Contraceptive Prevalence Universal knowledge of at least one modern method of contraception. Contraceptive prevalence rate of near 70% of women, 15-49, in union. Unmet need for family planning declined to under 10% in 2002 from 16% in 1990.

35 Fertility and Contraception Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Unmet Family Planning, CPR Source: RHS, National Family Planning Board Unmet Needs

36 (4)Infant, Child and Maternal Health MDG Goal: Goal #4: Reduce Child Mortality Goal #5: Improve Maternal Health

37 Infant, Child and Maternal Health Infant Mortality The reduction of Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is another goal of the MDGs Target to reduce IMR by two-thirds by 2015 IMR was at 24.5 in 1990 and 22.1 in 2000

38 Infant, Child and Maternal Health Infant Mortality Annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 1.0%. Annual rate of decline needs to be 6.5% to meet the MDG target by 2015 Jamaica is far behind

39 Infant, Child and Maternal Health Infant Mortality Rates RATES YEAR Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, selected years

40 Infant, Child and Maternal Health Child Mortality The reduction of Under-five mortality is another goal of the MDG Target includes reducing under-five mortality rate (U5MR) by two-thirds by 2015

41 Infant, Child and Maternal Health Child Mortality The annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 1.3% To achieve target however, the annual rate of decline has to be 5.1% Jamaica is far behind

42 Infant, Child and Maternal Health Child Mortality Rate RATES YEAR Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, selected years

43 Infant, Child and Maternal Health Maternal Mortality The reduction of Maternal Mortality is another goal of the MDGs Target is to reduce Maternal Mortality to two-thirds its 1990 level by 2015

44 Infant, Child and Maternal Health Maternal Mortality Lack of up-to-date data on MMR Data for , shows that MMR is 120/100,000. More recent data shows MMR at only 94.8/100,000 in 2000 To achieve this MDG target, MMR must be reduced to 30/100,000 by 2015

45 Infant, Child and Maternal Health Maternal Mortality Annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 2.3% In order to achieve the target, annual rate of decline has to be 7.4%. Jamaica is far behind.

46 Summary -Jamaica s s Progress in the MDGs Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger (ACHIEVED) Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education (ACHIEVED) Goal 3:Promote gender equality and empower women (LAGGING) Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality (FAR BEHIND)

47 Summary- Jamaica s s Progress in the MDGs Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health (FAR BEHIND) Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other disease (ON TRACK) Goal 7:Ensure environmental sustainability (LAGGING) Goal 8:Develop a global partnership for development

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