Migration in Hackney

Transcription

1 Migration in Hackney Analysis and Briefing, 2015 I. SUMMARY PATTERNS OF MIGRATION o Overall, levels of internal and international migration in Hackney are similar to other London boroughs and lower than several inner London boroughs o Internal migration inflows and outflows are now broadly at parity, and internal migration had only a small net impact of 200 fewer persons in the total population in 2012/13 o Neighbouring boroughs Islington, Tower Hamlets and Haringey represent substantial contributors to Hackney s inflow of internal migrants, and neighbouring outer London boroughs are popular destinations for out-migrants o International population inflows have remained consistently higher than outflows, meaning international migration is a net contributor to the total population. In 2013, international migration resulted in an additional 2,100 persons. o Common countries of origin for international migrants to Hackney include Australia, France, the US, Spain and Italy. o There are some clear patterns in the location of new or moving households in Hackney, with concentrations in Shoreditch, central Hackney, and in the north-west CHARACTERISTICS OF MIGRANTS o Migrants moving into Hackney are more likely to be younger working age (20-34), be from a white background, and are less likely to have a health problem or disability. o Migrants moving to Hackney from other parts of the UK are more likely to be economically active and in employment, and working in managerial 1

2 occupations o Households recently moved into Hackney are more likely to be in the private rented sector, and be one person households or couples without children. A significant proportion of those moving into Hackney are also students. o These characteristics mean that the majority of new migrants to Hackney are not likely to be heavy users of public services such as health, education, housing and welfare. o However, there are still a smaller number of migrants from more vulnerable backgrounds, with higher needs including those with refugee status and those with no recourse to public funds o However, overall, the impact of migrants in Hackney should not be overstated, since the characteristics of migrants leaving the borough is frequently similar to those moving in. o Migration projections indicate flat and then falling net migration trends in future, with the exception of a small increase in 2021 linked to housing delivery 2

3 II. INTRODUCTION Hackney is a rich, vibrant mix of different communities and is the sixth most diverse borough in London 1. In 2013, an Ipsos MORI survey of residents found 90% of residents said that Hackney was a place where people from different backgrounds got on well together. Migration has played a significant part in contributing Hackney s dynamic, cohesive, and growing community. Despite the importance of migration, reliable information on migration can be difficult to obtain and interpret. This briefing presents the best information on migration in Hackney, the different types of migration, recent trends, and the characteristics of migrants in Hackney. Future projections for migration are also examined. Key areas covered include: o Internal Migration: moves into and out of Hackney (but within the UK) o International Migration: moves into and out of Hackney outside the UK o Geography of migration: origin and destination of migrants at low geographies o Characteristics of migrants, including impact of migration and hidden migrants o Migration Projections: expected future trends in migration In terms of data sources, this briefing uses the following sources: - ONS Migration Statistics are used in this briefing to estimate the total flows of internal and international migration over time, since they provide the most up to date information with time-series data available. - Census data is used to track the origins and destinations of migrants, the granular geography of migration, and the characteristics of migrants, complemented with information from other sources - GLA population projections are used to highlight projected future migration trends III. INTERNAL MIGRATION Internal migration is migration that takes place within the UK borders, and the analysis below sets out internal migration trends for Hackney. This captures individuals moving into Hackney from another part of the UK, and individuals moving from Hackney to another part of the UK. Internal migration flows are usually much higher than international migration flows, and this pattern is seen in Hackney. 1 GLA Diversity Indices, using Census 2011 data 3

4 Internal Migration: Flows The graph below sets out internal migration flows for Hackney between 2003/4 and 2012/13. Over the time period, there has been a slow rise in internal inflows, against a relatively steady level of internal outflows (with a slight fall between 2003/4 and 2004/5). In 2003/4 the relatively large difference between inflows and outflows indicates that internal migration was contributing a net reduction of over 5,000 persons to the Hackney population. By 2012/13 the inflows (18900 persons) and outflows (19100 persons) were broadly similar, meaning internal migration had only a small net impact of 200 fewer persons in the total population Hackney - Internal Migration ~ Mid-2003 to Mid Mid-2004 to Mid Mid-2005 to Mid Mid-2006 to Mid Mid-2007 to Mid Mid-2008 to Mid Mid-2009 to Mid Mid-2010 to Mid Mid-2011 to Mid Mid-2012 to Mid Source: ONS Migration Statistics, 2013 The graph below compares internal migration levels (inflow and outflow) with other similar London boroughs 2. The flows in Hackney are broadly similar to other boroughs and somewhat lower than inner London boroughs such as Lambeth and Southwark. The levels of inflows and outflows in Hackney are also closer to parity than many other boroughs, with most experiencing somewhat higher outflows than inflows 2 Comparator boroughs were selected due to either their comparative inner London location or their proximity to Hackney 4

5 meaning, for those boroughs, internal migration would represent a net reduction in total population Internal Migration - Selected Boroughs ~ Mid-2012 to Mid-2013 Mid-2012 to Mid-2013 Source: ONS Migration Statistics, 2013 In terms of the origins of internal migrants moving into Hackney, the graph below sets out the most common origin by London borough and UK region. Neighbouring boroughs Islington, Tower Hamlets and Haringey represent substantial contributors to Hackney s inflow of internal migrations, along with the regions of south-east England, and the east of England. 5

6 Sutton Bexley Havering Hillingdon Barking and Dagenham Northern Ireland Merton Harrow Hounslow Bromley Richmond upon Thames Kingston upon Thames Croydon Greenwich Ealing Redbridge Wales North East Kensington and Chelsea Brent Scotland Barnet Lewisham Hammersmith and Fulham Enfield East Midlands West Midlands Newham Wandsworth Waltham Forest Yorkshire and The Humber Westminster,City of London North West of England South West of England Southwark Lambeth Camden East of England Haringey South East of England Tower Hamlets Islington Origins of Residents Moving into Hackney ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Source: Census 2011 Number of residents moving in In terms of migrants leaving the London borough of Hackney, popular destinations are again neighbouring boroughs however Haringey is the most popular destination. 6

7 Destinations of Moves from Hackney Bexley Sutton Harrow Hounslow Hillingdon Kingston upon Thames Croydon Richmond upon Thames North East Havering Merton Bromley Wales Kensington and Chelsea Ealing Hammersmith and Fulham Greenwich Barking and Dagenham Redbridge Brent Barnet Yorkshire and The Humber East Midlands West Midlands Wandsworth North West of England Westminster,City of London Lewisham South West of England Newham Lambeth Camden Enfield Southwark South East of England East of England Waltham Forest Islington Tower Hamlets Haringey Number of Residents Moving Out Source: Census 2011 Internal Migration: Turnover Previous graphs illustrated the levels of internal migration in Hackney in comparison to other boroughs. Internal migration can also be expressed in relation to the size of the total population. The graph below illustrates this, and this is expressed as internal migration turnover per 1000 population. The levels of turnover experienced in Hackney are relatively stable and lower than many other comparator boroughs, including Islington, Tower Hamlets, Haringey and Camden. 7

8 Internal Migration per 1000 Population (Turnover) Camden Greenwich Hackney Haringey Islington Lambeth Lewisham Newham Southwark Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Westminster Source: ONS Migration Statistics, 2013 IV. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION International migration refers to those moving into or out of an area outside the UK, and in many ways is harder to measure than internal migration. This is particularly the case in relation to international outflows, - those leaving an area of the UK to live abroad. More limited data is available on this group and Hackney data showing international outflows is based on modelled information. International Migration: Flows There have been some changes in Hackney s international migration flows over the last ten years, as shown in the graph below. s were higher in the years prior to 2008, peaking in 2007/8. They then dropped back to a slightly lower level from 2008/9. During the same period, there was some increase in outflows. This peaked in 2009/10, around the time of the financial crisis, and has since dropped back to a slightly lower level from 2010/11. However outflows have remained higher in recent years than in the years prior to Overall, throughout the last ten years, inflows have remained consistently higher than outflows, meaning that international migration is a net contributor to the total 8

9 population. In the most recent year of data, international inflows to Hackney totalled 4,900 persons, and outflows totalled 2,800 persons, meaning international migration made a net contribution to the population of 2,100 persons. Overall levels of international migration (inflows and outflows) are much lower than internal migration levels. International Migration ~ Source: ONS Migration Statistics, 2013 In comparison with other inner London boroughs, Hackney s international migration flows are relatively modest. As with other boroughs, in Hackney inflows are higher than outflows. However, the difference between inflows and outflows is lower than in comparators such as Tower Hamlets, Westminster, Newham and Camden, meaning that the net contribution of international migration in Hackney will be lower than in those boroughs. These boroughs with higher levels of migration inflow may be popular destinations because of their central London location or because of a combination of their level of housing affordability and the fact that they have existing established migrant communities. 9

10 16000 International Migration Selected London Boroughs ~ Source: ONS Migration Statistics, 2013 In terms of the origins of recent international migrants moving to Hackney, the 20 most common countries of origin are set out below. The most common origins are Australia, the US, France, and Spain. 10

11 Origin of Recent International Migrants to Hackney Brazil Japan Switzerland Belgium New Zealand Israel Portugal (including Madeira and the Azores) Netherlands India Sweden Poland China Canada Nigeria Germany Ireland Italy Spain (including Canary Islands) France United States Australia Source: Census 2011 Data International Migration: Turnover Levels of international migration turnover per 1000 resident are fairly low in Hackney when compared to other similar London boroughs. A number of boroughs, including Tower Hamlets, Islington, and Camden, all have higher rates of turnover. Few comparator boroughs have substantially lower rates than Hackney. 11

12 Turnover '000 pop ~ International Migration - Turnover per 1000 Resident Population Camden Greenwich Hackney Haringey Islington Lambeth Lewisham Newham Southwark Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Westminster England Source: ONS Migration Statistics, V. GEOGRAPHY OF MIGRATION This section sets out trends in the geography of migration in Hackney at small-area geographies, to provide information in population movements at a granular level. The following maps draw on Census 2011 data, which captures information on migration by asking respondents their address one year ago. This data is used to track movements in population. The maps that follow capture internal flows (in and out) and international inflows. Data on international outflows is not available, as those leaving the UK a year before the Census would not have returned a survey. Data is presented for Hackney and where relevant immediate surrounding boroughs, to highlight sub-regional trends. The map below shows the destinations of migrants who have either moved into Hackney from another borough or overseas, or those who have moved from one address in Hackney to another address within Hackney. The Census estimates that around 15,000 residents moved within Hackney in There are some clear patterns in the location of new or moving households in the borough, with specific concentrations in the Shoreditch area, in central parts of the

13 borough including Dalston and Hackney Downs, and in the north-western corner of the borough. Destination of individuals moving into or within Hackney Source: Census 2011 Data This product includes mapping data licensed from Ordnance Survey with the permission of HMSO Crown Copyright All rights reserved. License number Bartholomew Ltd.Reproduced by permission, Harper Collins Publishers The map below shows origins (ie location of previous address) of individuals who moved in the year before the 2011 Census, - who were Hackney residents at the 13

14 time of the 2011 Census. Many Hackney residents who moved in the year before the Census were actually moving within the borough. In terms of residents moving within the borough, their origin addresses are dispersed throughout the Hackney, with some concentrations in central areas, for example around Hackney Downs. 14

15 Origins of individuals moving into or within Hackney in 2010/11 In terms of residents moving into the borough from, the areas immediately bordering Hackney were common origins, particularly north Tower Hamlets, east Islington and southern Haringey. Relatively few residents made the move from outer-east London boroughs such as Newham, Redbridge, and Waltham Forest to Hackney. Source: Census 2011 Data This product includes mapping data licensed from Ordnance Survey with the permission of HMSO Crown Copyright All rights reserved. License number Bartholomew Ltd.Reproduced by permission, Harper Collins Publishers This pattern follows broader trends in London migration flows, where affordability constraints in inner London boroughs mean households more commonly move from more central inner London boroughs to outer London areas. The map below shows the destinations of residents who lived in Hackney the year before 2011 Census, and either left the borough or moved to a different location within the borough in the year 2010/11. 15

16 Destinations of Hackney Residents who moved in 2010/11 This shows a somewhat different picture compared to origins of Hackney residents. Individuals leaving Hackney are more likely to head to northern and eastern boroughs, with specific pockets being popular destinations: Blackhorse Road Waltham Forest, Hornsey and areas along the border with Haringey, and Crouch Hill in Islington. There are also some concentrations of previous Hackney residents moving to Stratford in Newham, Lee Valley in Waltham Forest, and Brimsdown in Enfield. For Hackney residents moving within the borough, central areas including lower Clapton and Shacklewell are popular destinations. 16 Source: Census 2011 Data This product includes mapping data licensed from Ordnance Survey with the permission of HMSO Crown Copyright All rights reserved. License number Bartholomew Ltd.Reproduced by permission, Harper Collins Publishers 2013.

17 VI. CHARACTERISTICS OF INTERNATIONAL AND INTERNAL MIGRANTS Further data from Census 2011 is available on the characteristics of migrants to Hackney. The characteristics of migrants (both internal and international) is important as they illustrate the ways in which migration can change the socioeconomic characteristics of an area, influence the needs of the local population, and contribute to the local community and economy. As with the data mapped above, this information is available only for internal flows (in and out), moves within Hackney, and international in-flows no data is available for those emigrating from the UK. In terms of the basic profile of migrants, it is clear that both internal and international in-migrants are more likely to be young working age adults (age 20-34) than the rest of the population. This is also the case with outflows of migrants, although this group contains a greater proportion of 35 to 49 year olds. Fewer than 10% of in-migrants are children aged 0 to 15, compared to over 20% for longer term residents. 100% 90% 80% Age by Migration 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Lived at same address one year ago Lived one year ago; within same area : Lived one year ago but inside the UK : Lived one year ago outside the UK Age 75 and over Age 65 to 64 Age 50 to 64 Age 35 to 49 Age 25 to 34 Age 20 to 24 Age 16 to 19 Age 5 to 15 Age 0 to 4 Source: Census 2011 Data 17

18 In terms of the ethnic group of those migrating, there are a greater proportion of those from white backgrounds both in groups who are moving into the borough, and those who are leaving the borough, compared to longer term residents. This is most significant for those moving into Hackney from other parts of the UK, and reflects the common countries of origin for international migrants, being Australia, France, the US and Spain. In terms of other trends, in-migrants to Hackney who moved to the borough from outside the UK are more likely than other residents or in-movers to be from a Chinese background. Those who have been resident in the borough for more than a year are more likely to be from black, Bangladeshi or other ethnic backgrounds. 100% Ethnic Group by Migration 90% 80% Other Ethnic Group 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Black / African / Caribbean / Black British Asian / Asian British: Other Asian Asian / Asian British: Chinese Asian / Asian British: Bangladeshi Asian / Asian British: Pakistani Asian / Asian British: Indian 20% 10% 0% Lived at same address one year ago Lived one year ago; within same area : Lived one year ago but inside the UK : Lived one year ago outside the UK : Total Mixed / Multiple ethnic group Gypsy / Traveller / Irish Traveller White Source: Census 2011 Data In terms of health, the proportion of recent migrants who experience health problems or disabilities is lower than for residents who have lived in the borough for over a 18

19 year. The levels are particularly low for those moving into Hackney from abroad. The proportion of individuals experiencing health problems or disability is also lower for those leaving the borough. This pattern likely reflects the age structure of migrants, with a lower proportion of older people (who are more likely to experience health problems or disability) represented in those entering or leaving the borough. Long-term Health Problem / Disability by Migration 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Day-to-day activities not limited 40% 30% 20% 10% Day-to-day activities limited a little 0% Lived at same address one year ago Lived one year ago; within same area : Lived one year ago but inside the UK : Lived one year ago outside the UK Day-to-day activities limited a lot Source: Census 2011 Data In terms of the economic activity by migration, the graph below shows that those moving into Hackney from other parts of the UK have higher full time employment rates. Those moving into Hackney from outside the UK have similar total employment rates to residents who have lived in the borough for more than year, but with a greater proportion of students and proportionately fewer sick, disabled and retired persons. Those who have lived in the borough for a year or more are more likely to be long term sick or disabled or looking after the home or family than migrant groups. Those who have not moved at all in the last year are particularly more likely to be retired. Overall, residents leaving the borough have similar economic activity levels to residents moving into the borough from other parts of the UK. Those leaving the borough have slightly lower fulltime employment rates, and slightly higher rates of economic inactivity than those moving into the borough from other parts of the UK. However, the difference is relatively slight and this indicates high internal migrant turnover may not significantly affect economic activity levels in the short term. 19

20 Economic Activity by Migration 100% 90% Economically inactive: Other 80% 70% Economically inactive: Long-term sick or disabled 60% 50% 40% 30% Economically inactive: Looking after home or family Economically inactive: Student (including full-time students) Economically inactive: Retired 20% 10% 0% Lived at same address one year ago Lived one year ago; within same area : Lived one year ago but inside the UK : Lived one year ago outside the UK : Total Economically active: Unemployed: Total Economically active: In employment: Part-time employment: Total Economically active: In employment: Full-time employment: Total Source: Census 2011 Data When socio-economic group is examined, similar patterns emerge. Those moving into Hackney from other parts of the UK are more likely to be from managerial or intermediate occupations, with proportionately more full-time students and fewer individuals who have never worked or in routine/semi-routine occupations than those who have lived in Hackney for over a year. Again, the characteristics of those leaving Hackney is similar to those moving into Hackney from other parts of the UK, meaning that internal migration is unlikely to have significant short term effects in changing the characteristics of the population. However, over the longer term migration can change the nature of place. The characteristics of migrants moving into Hackney from outside the UK is again heavily influenced by the larger proportion of students in this group. The proportion of those looking after the home or family is lower for in-migrant populations, and comprises relatively small proportion of migrant outflows, in comparison with the longer term population. 20

21 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Socio-Economic Group by Migration L15 Full-time students 8. Never worked and longterm unemployed 7. Routine occupations 6. Semi-routine occupations 5. Lower supervisory and technical occupations 4. Small employers and own account workers 0% Lived at same address one year ago Lived one year ago; within same area : Lived one year ago but inside the UK : Lived one year ago outside the UK : Total 3. Intermediate occupations 2. Lower managerial, administrative and professional occupations 1. Higher managerial, administrative and professional occupations Source: Census 2011 Data The graph below shows tenure patterns by migration. There is clear variation, with those recently moving in to Hackney more likely to live in the private rented sector. This is most significant for those moving into Hackney from abroad, though the pattern also applies to partially moving households - where one or more members of the household have moved in the last year but not all members have moved from the same address. This group would include sharer households, individuals renting rooms in a shared house (with shared cooking and living facilities). In terms of those moving out of the borough, a higher proportion of these households are owner occupiers (with mortgage) than households that have lived at the same address for over one year. 21

22 Tenure by Migration 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whole household lived at same address one year ago Wholly moving household: Lived one year ago; within same area Wholly moving household: : Lived one year ago but inside the UK Wholly moving household: : Lived one year ago outside the UK Wholly moving household: : Total Partially moving household Other private rented or living rent free Private landlord or letting agency Other social rented Rented from council (Local Authority) Owned with a mortgage or loan or shared ownership Owned outright Source: Census 2011 Data There are also substantial differences in household composition according to migration pattern. Households that have recently moved into Hackney are more likely to be one person households, and households without children. Households leaving Hackney are more likely to be couples with no children, and one person households. In terms of the proportions of those renting from the council, there are proportion of partially moving households of this tenure this is likely to include, for example, adult children (non dependants) who may move back to their (socially rented) parental home for a period, and individuals moving in with a partner who is living in social rented accommodation. For those wholly moving households who moved into Hackney from outside the UK, now identifying as living in the social rented sector, this is likely to include some families with high levels of need placed in Temporary Accommodation. There is also some evidence that a portion of households wrongly identified themselves as renting from the local authority when they were actually living in a housing association property or claiming housing benefit in the private rented sector. The majority of partially moving households are other household types, likely reflecting the more mobile population of sharers renting rooms in properties. 22

23 Household Composition by Migration 100% Other household types: Other 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Other household types: All aged 65 and over Other household types: All full-time students Other household types: With dependent children Lone Parent Family 30% 20% 10% 0% Whole household lived at same address one year ago Wholly moving household: Lived one year ago; within same area Wholly moving household: : Lived one year ago but inside the UK Wholly moving household: : Lived one year ago outside the UK Wholly moving household: : Total Partially moving household Married, civil partnership or cohabiting couple: No Children Married, civil partnership or cohabiting couple: Children Family all aged 65 and over One person household: Other One person household: Aged 65 and over Migration: Impact on Population Characteristics It is clear from the analysis above that the characteristics of migrants to Hackney, (including those moving from other parts of the UK and from abroad to the borough) vary from the characteristics of the borough s longer-term population. Migrants to Hackney tend to be younger, the majority from white backgrounds, with low levels of health problems and high levels of employment and socio-economic status. New migrants are more likely to reside in the private rented sector and live in one-person households or be couples without children. In this way, it is clear that migration can impact on the characteristics of the local population and over time has the potential to cause notable socio-economic shifts. However, there are a number of factors to be aware of which mean we should be cautious of overstating the potential impact of migrants to the borough: - The characteristics of out-migrants is, in many cases, more similar to inmigrants than the longer term population. This is particularly significant when 23

24 we consider that the difference between numbers of internal inflows and outflows is very low - Overall, flows and turnover is relatively low compared to other inner London Boroughs. ONS data from 2013 shows international migration contributes around 5,000 new individuals (2,000 net, approx) to the population, internal migration contributes around 19,000 new individuals (-1000 net, approx.). This is against a total population of 257,400 in The data on characteristics is a snapshot at a point in time during It is clear that migration trends change over time, influenced by economic, social and international factors. It is possible that the characteristics of migrants to Hackney in 2011 is quite different to that of migrants in 2005 or In addition, evidence from Home Office research 3 also suggests that impacts from the arrival of new residents may be felt less in high migration areas with a longer history of migration, which are more ethnically diverse, and where local authorities are experienced in dealing with the needs and challenges of a diverse population, regardless of their geographic origins. Local authorities in East London (including Hackney) have been classified as Superdiverse by the Home Office, fitting the description above. Similar points emphasising the superdiverse nature of the borough, where diversity has become commonplace and being from is the norm, are captured in recent academic studies on superdiversity in Hackney 4. Hidden migration Limited information is available on hidden migrants, those with no recourse to public funds or who might not be captured in official surveys or via sources frequently used to monitor migration, such as GP records. One source of information is via Doctors of the World, a charity offering medical assistance for those such as vulnerable migrants and persons without a fixed address. A pilot project is currently being run in Hackney and the City of London, and information has been collected on around 200 individuals in City and Hackney who used the service between 2012 and The majority were undocumented migrants and were provided with either help to register with a GP or help with NHS costs. Common countries of origin included China, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Vietnam. More than half required an interpreter and the majority were living below the poverty line. Although the study provides only a small snapshot it gives information on a group which is hard to reach and there is limited information on. 3 Home Office, July 2013, Social and Public Service Impacts of International Migration at the Local Level, Research Report 72 4 Susanne Wessendorf - Commonplace Diversity: Social Relations in a Super-Diverse Context. 24

25 VII. MIGRATION PROJECTIONS Migration is a key component in projecting changes in the population. The Greater London Authority produce population projections every year which include assumptions regarding future migration trends. Overall trends suggest that Hackney s population could grow by around 70,000 persons by The graph below sets out the most recent (2013) round of GLA projections broken down by births, deaths, net migration and natural change (ie, the difference between births and deaths). Often in demographic models net migration projections are assumed to be zero, as a starting point, unless there is significant evidence to the contrary. It is worth noting that although net migration may be zero, the inflows and outflows can both be high, - but at parity. It is clear that natural change in Hackney is expected to be the most significant driver of future population growth, with net migration expected to remain around zero until around 2021, when it is expected to make a minor contribution (just over 600 persons) to population growth. This prediction is linked to the high number of housing completions expected in this period, linked to major regeneration schemes in Hackney. Beyond the 2020s, as the available land for new developments because increasingly scarce, it is expected that net migration will fall into negative figures, steadying around -1,250 persons. Source: GLA SHLAA-Capped 2013 Round Projection, Tableau Visualisation 25