Implications of Low Inflation Rates for Monetary Policy

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1 EMBARGOED UNTIL MONDAY, NOVEMBER, 24 AT 5: P.M. EASTERN TIME OR UPON DELIVERY Implications of Low Inflation Rates for Monetary Policy Eric S. Rosengren President & CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Boston November, 24 The H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economy Washington and Lee University Lexington, Virginia bostonfed.org

2 Figure : Nominal and Real Federal Funds Effective Rate January 28 - September Percent Nominal Real Jan-28 Jan-2 Jan-22 Jan-24 Note: The real federal funds effective rate is calculated by subtracting the core PCE inflation rate from the nominal federal funds effective rate. Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics

3 Figure 2: Median Inflation Forecasts for 24 of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents June 22 - September Percent PCE 24 Core PCE. Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 Date of Forecast Note: Forecasts for both measures of inflation are for the percent change from the fourth quarter of 23 to the fourth quarter of 24. Source: FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), Minutes of FOMC Meetings

4 Figure 3: Median Inflation Forecasts for 24 from the Survey of Professional Forecasters May 22 - August Percent PCE 24 Core PCE. May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 May-24 Date of Forecast Note: Forecasts for both measures of inflation are for the percent change from the fourth quarter of 23 to the fourth quarter of 24. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

5 Figure 4: Measures of Labor Market Slack January October Percent U-6: U-3 Plus Workers who are Part Time for Economic Reasons or Marginally Attached U-3: Civilian Unemployment Rate Jan-994 Jan-999 Jan-24 Jan-29 Jan-24 Recession Source: BLS, NBER, Haver Analytics

6 Figure 5: Employment Gap and Inflation 98:Q - 24:Q3 8 Percentage Points Employment Gap 2-Quarter Change in Core CPI Inflation -2 98:Q 988:Q 996:Q 24:Q 22:Q Recession Note: The employment gap is the difference between the unemployment rate and the CBO estimate of the natural rate of unemployment. Source: BLS, CBO, NBER, Haver Analytics

7 Figure 6: Ten-Year Treasury Yield Minus Ten- Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield January 3, 22 - November 6, 24 Percent Jan-22 8-Sep-22 4-Jun-23 8-Feb-24 4-Nov-24 Note: Yields at Constant Maturity Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics

8 Figure 7: Inflation Expectations January 22 - October 24 4 Percent 3 2 Median Expected Inflation Over Next 5 to to Years Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Source: Thomson Reuters, University of Michigan

9 Figure 8: Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil January 3, 22 - November 6, 24 2 Dollars Per Barrel Jan-22 8-Sep-22 4-Jun-23 8-Feb-24 4-Nov-24 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), WSJ, Haver Analytics

10 Figure 9: U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil January 2 - August 24 3 Millions of Barrels Jan-2 Jan-24 Jan-28 Jan-22 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

11 Figure : S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Price Indices (January 22 = ) January 22 - October 24 S&P GSCI Commodity Nearby Index 2 2 Energy (69.77% of GSCI) Industrial Metals (6.74% of GSCI) Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 7 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 7 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Precious Metals (3.25% of GSCI) Agriculture (5.28% of GSCI) Livestock (4.96% of GSCI) Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 7 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 8 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Source: S&P, Haver Analytics

12 Figure : JP Morgan Nominal Broad Trade- Weighted Effective Exchange Rate Index for the U.S. Dollar January 3, 22 - November 6, Index, 2 = Jan-22 8-Sep-22 4-Jun-23 8-Feb-24 4-Nov-24 Source: JP Morgan, Haver Analytics

13 Figure 2: Employment Cost Index for Total Compensation for Private Industry Workers by Occupational Group 23:Q - 24:Q3 5 Percent Change from Year Earlier Natural Resources, Construction and Maintenance Production, Transportation and Material Moving Management and Professional Sales and Office Service Occupations 23:Q 28:Q 23:Q Recession Source: BLS, NBER, Haver Analytics

14 Figure 3: Employment Cost Index for Total Compensation for Private Industry Workers by Census Region 23:Q - 24:Q3 6 Percent Change from Year Earlier Northeast West Midwest 2 South 23:Q 28:Q 23:Q Recession Source: BLS, NBER, Haver Analytics

15 Figure 4: Measures of Inflation Targeted by Central Banks January 22 - September 24 4 Percent Change from Year Earlier U.S. 3 Japan Euro Area 2 - Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Note: The U.S. series is the PCE. The Euro Area series is the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. Japan s series is the CPI, All Items less Fresh Food, and adjusted for Japan s April 24 consumption tax increase. Source: BEA, Eurostat, Japan s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Bank of Japan, Haver Analytics

16 Figure 5: Overnight/Policy Rates for the Euro Area, Japan, and the U.S. January 3, 22 - November 6, Percent Euro Area Main Refinancing Operation on Effective Date U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate Japan's Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate Jan-22 8-Sep-22 4-Jun-23 8-Feb-24 4-Nov-24 Source: Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics

17 Figure 6: Ten-Year Government Bond Yields January 3, 22 - November 6, 24 4 Percent U.S. France Germany Japan Jan-22 8-Sep-22 4-Jun-23 8-Feb-24 4-Nov-24 Source: U.S. Treasury, Financial Times, Haver Analytics

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