The Impact of the recent Earthquake and Tsunami on the Japanese Energy Industry

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1 RPS Energy is part of RPS Group, a FTSE 250 company with a turnover of $700m. RPS Energy is one of the world s leading suppliers of independent commercial advisory services, project management support, and transaction support for the energy sector. Our clients include Governments, National Oil Companies, Integrated Majors, Independents, and Financial Institutions worldwide. The Downstream practice of RPS Energy has assembled a team of more than 50 sector specialists who have 20+ years extensive practical business experience across all elements of the Downstream Value Chain. Our clients tell us that this provides a uniquely differentiated consulting service. Interim Briefing Note The Impact of the recent Earthquake and Tsunami on the Japanese Energy Industry March 2011 ABSTRACT The horrendous disaster that occurred in the afternoon of March 11 has shaken the world with some tragic and horrific outcomes, all seemingly caught on camera. Firstly, a gigantic offshore Category 9.0 earthquake caused damage to North East Honshu. Then the resultant tsunami, that to date has tragically claimed thousands of lives and devastated everything and anything that got in its way. Subsequently, there is the energy impact of these natural disasters explosions and radiation leakage at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant, damage to refineries (reportedly some 1.7 mbd of capacity had initially shut down), damage to petrochemical plants (reportedly over 3 mta ethylene capacity closed) and closure of other power generation facilities (nuclear, gas, coal and oil). Japanese industry recovered relatively quickly after the 1995 Kobe Earthquake, that claimed over 6,000 lives, but that did not have an after-tsunami or the disastrous nuclear issues that Japan now faces. In the short-term, international crude and product prices could rise. However, it would be odious to judge what the final impact of this latest disaster will be, but it may well have significant implications for Japan s energy industry for many years to come. The objective of this paper is to provide an initial source of information of the initial impacts on the Japanese downstream oil business and beyond. It is a moving feast and things will change very quickly. The issues facing Japan s energy industry are looked at in broad perspective with special focus on refining and petrochemicals. It will not postulate the impact on the on-going challenge that the Japanese people face over controlling the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, other than how it affects the country s capability to generate its demand for electricity. 1

2 ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND IMPACT Japan has very little natural resources; it is the world's largest importer of both LNG and coal, and it is the third largest oil consumer in the world behind the United States and China. It is the third largest importer of crude oil. Consequently, the growth of producing energy from nuclear fuel became a way of reducing Japan s dependence on imports and particularly from countries that were distant and politically unstable. Prior to March 11, Japan was the third largest user of nuclear energy behind the US and France. Energy demand in Japan in 2009 was some 464 mtoe but has been as high as 520 mtoe 1. Demand for petroleum products makes oil the largest constituent (198 mtoe) although other fuels / energy sources (Coal 109 mtoe, Natural Gas 79 mtoe, Nuclear 62 mtoe and Hydro - 17 mtoe) are significant. First indications are that oil demand in 2010 was nearer 220 mtoe 2 in line with significant growth in Asian demand post the credit crisis. Electricity generation capacity is reported at 281GW with significant additional capacity planned to meet growing demand (30GW planned by 2019 including, nuclear, gas and clean coal 3 ). Demand for electricity is forecast to be growing at 0.8% per annum through to The actual amount of electricity generated in 2009 (the latest reported information) is confusing ranging from 982 TWh (EIA) to 1115 TWh (BP Statistical Review). Whichever is the exact result, the Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan (FEPC) claims the average national load is ca 61-64%. The breakdown of sources of electricity prior to March 2011 was Coal 28% / Nuclear 27% / Gas 26% / Oil 9% / Hydro and other renewable 10% 2. The planned incremental capacity was intended to take nuclear s share of generated electricity to 40% by 2019 and 50% by 2030, thus further cutting down on fossil fuel imports. However, following the events of the last few days this strategy is likely to change. (Note - It is reported that there will be significant knock-on effects to the nuclear programmes of Germany, UK and Italy, whilst in the US the President has ordered safety reviews at all 104 nuclear plants.) Fukushima and other nuclear facilities are reported to have 49GW capacity, with pre-tsunami plans to increase this to 52GW by 2014 and 62GW by According to various sources, of the 281GW total capacity, nearly 10% has been shut in because of tsunami damage. Of this, some 12.4GW is nuclear plants, 5-7GW is coal-powered stations, 3.6GW oil fired and reportedly, some 3.0GW of gas fired plants 4. (Note - Wood Mackenzie have reported similar figures with 9.7GW nuclear capacity closed immediately after the earthquake struck.) More importantly, it is expected that the 4.7GW Fukushima facility is lost forever and the planned 2.8GW station at Kaminoseki as well as the two-1.4gw stations at Higashidori and Ohma are believed to have been shelved in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. (Note - If Japan does revise its long term power generation strategy away from nuclear, then given the cost and emission issues associated with oil and coal, it is expected that LNG will be the preferred choice of incremental fuel. Speculation is already rife that the nuclear emergency may even lead to an order boom for LNG carriers 5 ) 1 BP Statistical Review Of World Energy 2 EIA 3 Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan (FEPC) 4 Petroleum Argus 5 Lloyds, based on a report from South Korea s Mirae Asset Securities 2

3 Notwithstanding the central strategy, the regions effected most (northern Honshu) in the shortterm clearly need inter alia power and water, not least to restore power for the back-up pumping and cooling systems at Fukushima. This is essential in order to keep cool the fuel rods within the reactor and the spent fuel in the storage pools. (Note - BBC News reported that Fukushima s owner, Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) has successfully connected the damaged plant to Tohuko Electric s grid via a temporary cable, although the cooling system has yet to be restored.) TEPCO also plans to build a number of small makeshift gas turbine power generators to meet the summer peak demand for electricity. IMPACT ON IMPORTS In order to restore power to the devastated area and to other areas that are currently rationed, much effort is being placed on increasing the output from undamaged non-nuclear power stations. For example, TEPCO is in the process of restarting a number of mothballed oil-fired units. (Note - TEPCO has also now restarted five gas power units (totalling 1.3GW) by shortening maintenance shutdowns and plans to bring another 1.0GW gas stations on by the end of March. Meanwhile, Tohoku Electric has restarted its 250MW Hachinohe oil-fired unit after a nine-day closure forced by the earthquake and is increasing capacity at other undamaged gas-fired stations.) To facilitate this, Japan is in the market for: a) Additional supplies of Australian and Indonesian coal b) Extra LNG cargoes. It is reported that any unfixed European shipments have already been diverted to Japan 6. Japan has 40 dedicated LNG terminals c) Supplementary supplies of suitable oil that can be used as direct feed in their oil fired or duel fired power stations To the latter end, given the damage to a significant amount of refining capacity and the lack of indigenous production of LSFO, (Japanese refineries tend to run mainly sour crudes mainly from the Arabian Gulf with small amounts (<10%) of sweet Indonesian and ESPO grades); traders are scouring the region for supplies of sweet crudes and LSWR. Both sweet crude and LSWR can be fired directly in power stations. Historically, the primary source of these has been Indonesia. Minas, Duri and Cinta are all established direct burn grades. However, since the Kobe disaster, the fundamentals have changed dramatically. Many Indonesian field outputs have declined and Indonesia itself is now an oil importer whereas in the past it was an exporter. As such, traders are looking further afield and it is rumoured that supplies of Sudanese Nile Blend and Vietnamese grades are moving to Japan. Consequently, we expect sweet crudes, particularly ASEAN grades, to trade at new highs and increased premia to Brent. In addition, strong regional middle distillate demand and this current supply tightness because of the refinery outages are expected to support distillate-rich light sweet crude prices. Equally, with a shortage of Indonesian LSWR cargoes, LSFO prices are anticipated to harden dramatically. 6 City AM 3

4 Given the potential supply bottleneck with LSWR, price pressure on sweet crudes and difficulties incurred by utility companies accepting coal imports; it is likely that the power traders will try to purchase as much LNG as they can before turning to fossil fuels. REFINERY IMPACT Japan has some 30 domestic refineries with a combined capacity of some 5mbd, boasting the second largest capacity pool (after China) in Asia. As mentioned above, a number of plants have been put out of action. Early television reports showed the dramatic pictures of the fire raging at Cosmo Oil s Chiba refinery in Ichihara City. In all, the following plants were reported out of action: JX Nippon has plants down at Sendai (145kbd), Kashima (189kbd) and Negishi (270kbd). Products are currently being distributed out of stock from Kashima, although the plant is still down. Negishi is starting up 22 March. Cosmo has Chiba (220kbd) down. The fire in the LPG plant is now out and first reports suggest that it has not damaged the processing units Tonen General had Kawasaki (335kbd) shut down, but has currently restarted it with the aim of slowly raising the throughput to maximum Kyokuto Petroleum's Chiba refinery (175kbd) which is a JV between Tonen and Mitsui has also restarted but will not reach maximum throughput for a few days Idemitsu has said that its 220kbd Chiba refinery had resumed operations as early as 12 March. However, some of its petrochemical units are still off line because of electricity and feedstock shortages. 4

5 The anticipated outlook is that most of the outages will be brought back fairly quickly, except in the case of JX s Sendai and Cosmo s Chiba plants, which could take until the summer at the earliest. However, as above, Cosmo have eluded that if the process plant is unscathed post inspection then Chiba may come back sooner. Meanwhile, other Japanese refineries are maximising runs to offset those facilities that are damaged or shut for safety checks. For example, JX Nippon is restoring some of the spare capacity at one of its Mizushima refineries to make up for the lost output at its damaged plants. In addition, the Ministry for Energy and Industry (METI) has authorised two releases of product CSOs held by refiners. The total CSO holding was just less than 600m BBLs in December and it is believed these recent releases add up to around 66 m BBLs or some 11% of the total strategic inventory. The loss of refining capacity has resulted in a huge demand for imports of finished products, particularly gasoline. As such, the Korean company SK is exchanging gasoline for crude with JX Nippon and it is anticipated that more of the same will occur in the short term. Showa Shell has announced that it has stopped exports of gasoline and gasoil to increase domestic shipments. Other refiners are doing similar. As a quid pro quo, PetroChina has cancelled its contract with JX whereby it took fuel oil from Japan into China. Whether, this is because JX declared force majeure is unknown. (Note - Japanese exports of middle distillates were some 313kbd last year, or the equivalent to 1% of Asian demand 8. Large regional exporters such as South Korea and India are likely to fill the gap caused by the loss of exports. However, this in turn could reduce the flow of middle distillates from Asia into Europe, where both Jet and diesel are short. Therefore, the outage of Japanese refining capacity will likely tightened product markets globally in the short term until they come back on stream and restart exports. The big concern is Jet; the International Air Transport Association (IATA) warned that the loss of some Japanese refinery capacity could lead to higher prices. According to Petroleum Argus, Japanese refineries produce nearly 4% of global Jet demand). This rise in distillate premia has also pushed up the price of base oils and VGO. As a result and the tsunami damage to the industrial and power generation sectors, will likely dampen the demand for finished lubricants. Conversely, base oil exports will be less as base oil capacity has shut down (e.g. JX Negishi) and refinery output focuses on maximising distillate output. However, the big issue remains around infrastructure and the ability to distribute products and other vital supplies to the areas that most need them. The reports of what facilities are available are clearly obscure in these early days. Reports that a VLCC was discharging crude in Chiba counteract the news that many ports are closed, discharge facilities damaged and that the inland infrastructure around Sendai is nonexistent. However, according to Petroleum Argus, as at 22 March, the first coastal product tanker arrived at Idemitsu's oil storage facility at Shiogama, which is close to Sendai and is now partially reopened for the discharge of relief material 9. 7 EIA 8 Nomura 9 Japanese Transport Ministry 5

6 PETROCHEMICALS IMPACT Equally, there has been some damage to petrochemical facilities. This has or will have a serious impact on global naphtha prices, as Japan was the largest global importer of naphtha (some 18-19mta). According to Petroleum Argus, naphtha prices had initially fallen by some $50 / MT, following the disaster. Reports are naturally obscure but the following plants are reported closed 10. Company Factory Estimated Ethylene Capacity (kta) 11 Maruzen Ichihara 525 Idemitsu Ichihara 374 Mitsubishi Kashima 878 Mitsui Ichihara 581 JX Nippon Kawasaki 423 Tonen General Kawasaki 515 3,296 The Mitsubishi and Mitsui plants are reportedly undamaged, but are down because of jetty damage at Kashima and shortage of power at Mitsui. However, as mentioned above, any plants that are only temporarily down maybe starved of feedstock due to damage to ports, damage to refineries they are either integrated with or fed from and also because ship-owners are placing embargoes on certain destinations. INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT Petroleum products are mainly delivered to end-users by coastal tankers and by road trucks, as well as railroad tankers and a limited amount of pipelines. The ability for Japan to import oil or other essential supplies is being further exacerbated by the Fukushima disaster. It is reported that ship-owners are reserving the right to divert cargoes away from Japanese Ports due to the abnormally high radiation levels. Already it is reported that one Korean shipowner who despite having 50% of its fixings for Japan is looking for alternative business elsewhere. Additionally, Russian ship-owners who freight ESPO crude into Japan have also stopped deliveries because of radiation scares. (Lloyds reports that at least five countries have now told ships to avoid the waters around Japan s Fukushima nuclear power station). It is rumoured that METI is looking at a fall back plan, whereby international vessels will transship offshore into Japanese-flag ships to take cargoes into Japanese ports. Equally, there are suggestions that ESPO will be delivered into Yosu (South Korea) and reloaded into either Japanese vessels or onto tankers whose owners and crew are prepared to enter Japanese ports, but at clearly inflated premia. Conversely, the expected demand for imports into Japan is expected to see oil moving out of floating storage and forcing additional shipping capacity onto the market with the impact of 10 Petroleum Argus 11 SRI 6

7 lowering charter rates. Valero are even considering diverting product exports from the USGC via Panama to meet the needed demand 12. CONCLUSIONS The earthquake and subsequent tsunami have had a devastating effect on the people and industry of Japan. However, it is also having impacts on global crude and product markets, not least: Sweet crude prices are commanding new premia as Japanese utility companies are in the market to purchase sweet crude to burn in their oil-fired power stations. The global situation is exacerbated by the lack of Libyan exports. First indications are that ASEAN sweet crudes diffs have increased by at least 30 / BBL compared to pre-tsunami levels. LNG prices could harden as Japanese utility companies are purchasing surplus cargoes. Until the Japanese refineries are fully back on stream, exports of products will cease. The lack of middle distillate exports will mean more product remains within the Asia-Pacific region and the flows to the European Jet and diesel shorts reduced. As a result of the disaster, the latest rumour is that the Indian NOCs are delaying their spring turnarounds in order to minimise the diesel loss within the region. Nevertheless, until full capacity is restored, global distillate prices are expected to harden. Equally, until product output is re-established, regional exports of gasoline to Pacific Rim countries might be short and result in local prices hardening. LSFO prices are expected to rise as Japanese companies compete over LSWR cargoes and the shortage of sweet residue in general. Base oil prices and VGO are being supported by the upswing in gas oil and fuel oil prices. However, demand for finished lubricants is expected to fall because of damage to industry. Naphtha prices are expected to weaken whilst the Japanese ethylene crackers remain down. Japan is the largest international purchaser of naphtha and the loss of 15-20% of its normal import level will have a huge impact on global naphtha markets. Overall, this could result in an increase in sour-refining margins. The Japanese have a reputation of restoring facilities very quickly, as exemplified by the quick refinery start-ups, establishment of alternative power facilities & the opening of damaged ports. Unlike the 1995 earthquake, we believe that much of the primary devastation is in non-industrial areas. Provided there is no material damage in the Tokyo Bay region, or long-term radiation effects, then Japan s GDP output may only be impacted slightly (0.5% at most) 13. Therefore, the impact on ASEAN demand might only be small. First suggestions are that demand will fall 400kbd in 2Q offset by additional oil use in power stations. However, it is all too early to call. Until things return to a sufficient state of normality, the impacts of March 11 could still have an impact on global supply, demand and prices. For further information, or to arrange a conversation with our senior specialists, please contact: Rod Hoffman M +44 (0) E hoffmanr@rpsgroup.com W 12 Petroleum Argus 13 The World Bank s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update

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