UNDERSTANDING VOTER TURNOUT: Who s Voting and Who s Not Voting. Tables and Charts

Transcription

1 UNDERSTANDING VOTER TURNOUT: Who s Voting and Who s Not Voting Tables and Charts

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide 04 Voter Turnout by Age Groups Slide 07 Voter Turnout by Household Income and Spanish-Surnamed Voters Slide 08 Percentage of Registered Voters vs. Vote Share Slide 09 Voter Turnout, Demographics and Partisan Voting by Household Income Slide 11 Voter Turnout by State Representative Districts Slide 14 Voter Turnout by Election Day Polling Locations Slide 18 Voter Turnout by Precinct by Precinct Voting Age Population Slide 19 Calculating Voter Turnout in Harris County Slide 20 Household Income, Voter Turnout, Demographics and Party Preference data for the November 2012 Election in Harris County 2

3 Introduction This presentation provides charts created using official election results and U.S. Census demographic data for Harris County, Texas. The charts provide a look at voter turnout by household income, Spanish-surnamed voters, voting age population, race and ethnicity of Texas state representatives, political affiliations and voting age categories in various elections. It also shows the variables used to calculate voter turnout in Texas. The charts offer a look at who is voting and who is not voting with the objective of spurring discussion about voting behavior which is based on facts and figures. Understanding the correlates pertaining to voter participation places voter turnout into perspective. 3

4 Voter Turnout by Age Groups: Share of the vote in Presidential, Municipal, and Midterm Elections 28.9% % 36.4% 30.6% 31.4% 35.0% 30.0% 22.8% 20.1% 18.8% 17.7% 18.6% 17.3% 16.7% 15.5% 16.4% 7.4% 8.0% 7.3% 7.2% 7.0% 7.1% 13.5% 8.5% 2.7% 1.9% 16.0% 11.9% 4.1% 2.9% 2004 Pres Pres Pres Muni Mid. This chart shows voting by age groups for 3 Presidential Elections, a Midterm Election and a Municipal Election. It shows that in elections in which the vote share of year olds drops, the share of the vote of voters who are 65 years of age and older increases significantly. 4

5 Voter Turnout by Age Groups: Share of the vote within each City of Houston Council District in 2014 Midterm Election % 34.1% 36.1% 32.0% 31.5% 36.8% 34.6% 32.1% 29.5% 31.5% 31.6% 39.9% 31.9% 35.5% 32.2% 32.6% 32.4% 30.9% 31.9% 32.6% 29.8% 25.8% 17.7% 15.6% 14.7% 16.1% 12.9% 13.6% 13.6% 14.2% 11.4% 11.9% 10.5% 9.9% 6.8% 4.4% 3.8% 5.3% 2.6% 2.8% 3.8% 3.0% 4.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2.7% 12.9% 9.7% 3.8% 1.6% 14.7% 14.8% 12.8% 13.8% 14.9% 12.4% 12.3% 10.9% 5.9% 5.6% 3.4% 4.0% 4.8% 4.7% 2.9% 2.7% Dist. A Dist. B Dist. C Dist. D Dist. E Dist. F Dist. G Dist. H Dist. I Dist. J Dist. K This chart shows voting by age categories within each City of Houston Council District. It shows that voters 50 years of age and older constituted about 65% of the turnout. 5

6 Voter Turnout by City of Houston Council District: Percent of Registered Voters vs. Vote Share in 2014 November Election % of CoH Registered Voters % of CoH Vote Share 16.9% 15.6% 9.9% 13.5% 11.6% 11.0% 11.2% 13.0% 12.1% 7.5% 7.2% 8.4% 7.1% 5.2% 7.5% 5.8% 6.6% 4.9% 4.8% 8.2% 8.6% 3.5% Dist. A Dist. B Dist. C Dist. D Dist. E Dist. F Dist. G Dist. H Dist. I Dist. J Dist. K This chart shows the percent each City of Houston Council District constitutes of the overall registered voter population and the percent of the overall vote each comprised in the 2014 November Election. It shows District C, E, G and K comprised a higher percentage of the vote than their share of the registered voter population. 6

7 Voter Turnout by Household Income and Spanish-Surnamed Voters: Harris County in 2012 November Election Spanish Surnamed Voter Turnout OVERALL VOTER TURNOUT 80.6% 71.2% 68.4% 68.2% 64.3% 61.9% 63.9% 62.8% 64.0% 66.1% 70.2% 71.3% 70.8% 69.9% 71.7% 72.6% 65.0% 60.0% 62.0% 60.0% 58.3% 58.1% 59.9% 53.6% 37.7% 40.4% 40.5% 44.4% 47.9% 48.4% 50.3% 51.3% 51.6% 51.7% 52.5% 49.9% 50.4% 53.2% 53.9% 43.7% Household income ranges ($) This chart combines U.S Census household income ranges by ZIP code with precinct by precinct election results for the 2012 Presidential Election. It shows a relationship between income and voting turnout for the general voting population as well as Spanish surnamed voters. 7

8 Voter Turnout by Household Income: Percent of Registered Voters vs. Vote Share in Harris County in 2012 November Election % of Reg. Voters % of Vote Share 11.8% 10.2% 9.7% 9.0% 8.5% 8.8% 7.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.3% 9.0% 7.7% 8.1% 7.8% 6.7% 5.8% 6.8% 5.2% 4.7% 4.3% 4.3% 4.6% 3.5% 4.2% 3.6% 3.4% 1.5% 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 0.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.9% Household income ranges ($) This chart shows the percent each household income category constitutes of the overall registered voter population and the vote share each comprised in the 2012 November Election. It shows that the vote share in the household income ranges below $55,000 are not commensurate to their percent of registered voters. 8

9 Voter Turnout by Household Income: Straight Party in Voting in Harris County in 2012 November Election % of voters choosing Straight Party option 80.8% 75.6% 75.9% 69.7% 69.0% 69.2% 69.6% 67.5% 66.2% 66.8% 65.5% 71.5% 66.8% 66.5% 65.1% 59.8% 58.5% 59.1% 47.3% Household income ranges ($) This chart shows the relationship between household income and Straight Party voting. 9

10 Voter Turnout by Household Income: Straight Party in Voting in Harris County in 2012 November Election % of Straight Party voters choosing DEM option % of Straight Party voters choosing REP option 93.0% 87.2% 87.8% 82.4% 71.1% 67.3% 61.7% 64.9% 60.5% 59.7% 73.1% 76.9% 79.9% 69.7% 72.4% 67.9% 67.1% 53.4% 49.6% 6.6% 12.3% 11.7% 28.2% 31.9% 37.6% 45.9% 49.6% 38.6% 39.4% 34.2% 29.4% 31.2% 32.0% 26.1% 26.6% 22.2% 19.2% 16.9% Household income ranges ($) This chart shows the relationship between household income and Straight Party voting selection. Voters with a household income of $60,000 or higher tended to vote Straight Party Republican. 10

11 Voter Turnout by Race/Ethnicity of Texas State Representative in Presidential, Municipal, and Midterm Election SRDs with Hispanic State Representative SRDs with Black State Representative SRDs with Asian State Representative SRDs with White State Representative 67.6% 59.2% 55.4% 50.0% 38.1% 30.8% 25.4% 27.1% 14.9% 11.5% 12.1% 13.2% 2012 Pres. Turnout 2013 Muni. Turnout 2014 Mid. Turnout This chart shows voter turnout by race and ethnicity of the Texas State Representative. It shows that voters who resided in State Representative Districts (SRD) that are represented by Hispanics have the lowest voter turnout. 11

12 Voter Turnout by Race/Ethnicity of Texas State Representative in 2012, 2014 SRDs with Hispanic State Representative SRDs with Black State Representative SRDs with Asian State Representative SRDs with White State Representative 53.2% 58.0% 53.9% 61.0% 24.8% 23.7% 24.5% 22.4% 15.6% 12.5% 15.2% 11.5% 6.5% 5.8% 6.3% 5.1% % of Registered Voters % of Vote Share % of Registered Voters % of Vote Share 2012 This chart shows the percent each State Representative District (SRD) category constituted of the overall registered voter population and the vote share each comprised in the 2012 and 2014 November Elections. It shows that the vote share of voters in SRDs represented by a minority elected official is not commensurate to its percent of registered voters

13 Voter Turnout By State Representative Districts: Spanish Surnamed Voters vs General Voting Population in 2012 November Election Spanish Surnamed Turnout Overall Turnout % 49.96% 41.79% 51.76% 67.58% 59.23% 44.53% 43.93% 55.40% SRDs with Hispanic representative SRDs with White representative SRDs with Black representative SRDs with Asian representative This chart shows the general and Spanish surname voter turnout by State Representative District (SRD) in the 2012 November Elections. It shows that the Spanish surnamed voter turnout is lowest in districts represented by Hispanics and highest in districts represented by Whites. 13

14 Voter Turnout by Election Day Polling Locations: Presiding Judge Party Affiliation in 2014 November Election Democratic Pcts Republican Pcts 57.5% 60.1% 49.9% 50.0% 42.4% 39.8% % of Registered Voters % of Vote Share % of Pcts This chart shows the percent of Election Day polling locations that were run by major political parties. It also shows the percent of the overall registered voter population and the vote share in precincts by Presiding Judge party affiliation in the 2014 November Election. 14

15 Voter Turnout by Voting Age Population (VAP): 2012 November Election White VAP Prcts Turnout Black VAP Prcts Turnout Hispanic VAP Prcts Turnout 71.6% 68.5% 68.5% 71.2% 73.4% 74.4% 64.8% 53.9% 60.1% 52.5% 63.6% 60.1% 61.6% 59.6% 59.7% 56.9% 55.0% 57.0% 56.9% 65.3% 57.7% 54.0% 61.0% 60.8% 52.1% 58.6% 60.6% 45.1% 43.5% 43.2% VAP 0-9% VAP 10-19% VAP 20-29% VAP 30-39% VAP 40-49% VAP 50-59% VAP 60-69% VAP 70-79% VAP 80-89% VAP 90%+ This chart shows turnout by Voting Age Population (VAP) by precinct demographics in the 2012 November Election. It shows the relationship between demographics of a precinct and the turnout of each voting group. 15

16 Voter Turnout by Black and Hispanic VAP: Voting for Presidential candidates in 2012 November Election Obama (D) Romney (R) Others 90.3% 73.0% 70.9% 66.3% 61.7% 54.4% 51.6% 58.3% 66.1% 75.8% 38.8% 45.6% 42.7% 31.0% 35.7% 21.6% 31.2% 24.9% 26.6% 7.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% BH VAP 0%-9% BH VAP 10%-19% BH VAP 20%-29% BH VAP 30%-39% BH VAP 40%-49% BH VAP 50%-59% BH VAP 60%-69% BH VAP 70%-79% BH VAP 80%-89% BH VAP 90%-100% This chart shows voting by Black and Hispanic Voting Age Population (BH VAP) in the 2012 November Election. It shows the relationship between demographics of a precinct and the voting tendencies of each voting group. 16

17 Voter Precincts by White VAP: Comparison in Harris County in 2000 vs % White VAP 10-19% White VAP 20-29% White VAP 30-39% White VAP 40-49% White VAP 50-59% White VAP 60-69% White VAP 70-79% White VAP % White VAP % White VAP This chart shows the number of White Voting Age Population (VAP) precincts in 2000 and 2010 based on U.S. Census data. 17

18 Voter Turnout: Active and Suspense Voters for November Elections held in Harris County Active Registered Voters Active and Suspense Registered Voters 69.7% 69.1% 60.5% 47.9% 60.1% 37.7% 41.2% 33.5% This chart shows the voter turnout percentage when different variables are included in the formula used to calculate voter participation. It suggests that guidelines that define the status of a registered voter from state to state may affect the calculation of voter turnout. 18

19 This table shows Household Income, Voter Turnout, Demographics and Party Preference data for the November 2012 Election in Harris County Household Income Voter Turnout % White alone, not Hispanic or Latino % Black % Hispanic % Asian % American Indian % Hawaiian Republican President Candidate Democratic President Candidate Other Candidates 0-24K 53.6% 2.2% 64.3% 31.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 8.2% 91.4% 0.4% 25-29K 49.9% 3.8% 29.4% 60.3% 4.9% 1.5% 0.2% 15.2% 84.1% 0.7% 30-34K 50.4% 5.1% 27.6% 64.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.1% 14.9% 84.4% 0.7% 35-39K 53.2% 10.3% 22.9% 59.4% 5.9% 1.3% 0.1% 30.5% 68.3% 1.2% 40-44K 53.9% 18.5% 23.1% 52.3% 4.7% 1.2% 0.2% 34.2% 64.6% 1.2% 45-49K 61.9% 26.1% 26.6% 40.0% 5.9% 1.2% 0.3% 38.6% 60.2% 1.2% 50-54K 60.0% 25.4% 23.1% 38.0% 11.9% 1.4% 0.2% 46.8% 52.0% 1.2% 55-59K 63.9% 31.4% 30.7% 29.3% 7.2% 1.1% 0.2% 48.8% 49.8% 1.4% 60-64K 62.8% 41.8% 15.3% 33.1% 8.4% 1.2% 0.2% 58.5% 40.0% 1.4% 65-69K 64.0% 46.2% 15.2% 30.1% 7.1% 1.2% 0.3% 56.6% 41.8% 1.6% 70-74K 66.1% 48.6% 10.2% 33.0% 6.8% 1.2% 0.2% 61.5% 37.0% 1.5% 75K-79K 65.0% 63.7% 3.9% 28.7% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% 79.5% 19.2% 1.2% 80-84K 71.2% 62.5% 7.8% 20.6% 7.9% 0.9% 0.2% 63.4% 35.0% 1.6% 85-89K 70.2% 57.9% 12.2% 20.6% 8.2% 0.9% 0.2% 64.4% 34.2% 1.4% 90-94K 71.3% 70.0% 5.8% 15.8% 7.4% 0.8% 0.1% 67.9% 30.5% 1.6% 95-99K 70.8% 65.4% 7.4% 18.1% 8.0% 1.0% 0.2% 72.1% 26.5% 1.4% K 69.9% 69.2% 4.3% 13.9% 11.6% 0.9% 0.1% 75.1% 23.5% 1.5% K 71.7% 63.5% 5.1% 14.3% 16.2% 0.7% 0.1% 66.2% 32.2% 1.6% 150K+ 72.6% 76.1% 2.0% 7.9% 13.3% 0.5% 0.1% 58.1% 40.0% 1.9% 19

20 By: Hector de Leon With help from Du Ha Kim Nguyen, Gee-Wey Yue, Kristina Nichols, and An Le