Reducing the Democratic Deficit: The Causes of Low Voter Turnout as Viewed by Canadians

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1 Reducing the Democratic Deficit: The Causes of Low as Viewed by Canadians Jack Jedwab Executive Director Association for Canadian Studies December, Introduction On November 19 th, Elections Canada released detailed results for the 2004 federal election that provided valuable insights into about the voter turnout, something which diminished further in comparison with the 2000 contest. Analysts are busy focusing on the reasons for declining turnout and surely attempting to identify remedies to redress the situation prior to the next federal election. Opinion leaders have expressed increasing concern over the declining rates of voter turnout in elections which they feel represents signs of a weakening of our democratic fabric. Rarely have we explored what Canadians think about the issue. Paradoxically, while many of us do not vote, we are nonetheless about the broader impact of such inactivity on our democracy. A survey conducted by the firm Environics for the Association for Canadian Studies suggests that a majority of Canadians are with declining voter turnouts. Some Canadians were polled between September 13 th and 15 th 2004 as to their views on voter turnout and its causes. 2. Disempowerment and Democratic Deficits As observed below, most Canadians attribute low voter turnout to the belief that people s vote has no impact--an idea that suggests a sense of disempowerment amongst the Canadian population. Some 41% of Canadians surveyed identify this as the major reason why individuals choose not to vote. Not surprisingly therefore such sentiment is particularly high in the Prairies. However it is also true for Ontarians despite their greater degree of support for the Liberal party. Quebecer s point less to disempowerment with the lowest percentage citing voter impact as the reason people choose not to vote in elections. Instead they feel that it is low interest in politics than contributes to reduce turnout to a greater extent than do other Canadians. In your opinion, what is the main reason so many Canadians choose not to vote in elections? Region Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies B.C. Provinces They believe their vote has no impact They don t like any of the choices They are just not interested in politics They do not find the issues relevant They do not have the time to go vote

2 Paradoxically those with higher income tend to believe that voter impact is at the root of low turnout whereas those with the lowest income are equally to refer to disinterest in politics or not liking the choices as contributing factors. As we can observe in the 2004 election, persons with higher income were more likely to vote than those with lower incomes. Household income Less 20K 20K-40K 40K-80K 80K more They believe their vote has no impact They don t like any of the choices They are just not interested in politics They do not find the issues relevant They do not have the time to go vote On the basis of age it is the baby-boomers that are most likely to cite having no impact with the youngest voters, whom are somewhat less inclined to give that reason. Age They believe their vote has no impact They don t like any of the choices They are just not interested in politics They do not find the issues relevant They do not have the time to go vote

3 As to party preference it is supporters of the NDP that are most likely to believe the vote has no impact followed by Conservatives with Liberals and Bloquists, who are less likely to hold that view. Federal Vote Liberal Con. NPD Bloc They believe their vote has no impact They don t like any of the choices They are just not interested in politics They do not find the issues relevant They do not have the time to go vote 2. Who Voted in 2004? Such issues as age, region of residence, income and unemployment are all factors that may act together to influence levels of voter participation. For example, when considering income we observe below that those ridings with persons in the highest income bracket tend to vote to a greater extent than those with lower income. Federal with Highest Income in 2001 and voter turnout Rates in 2004 Dollars Don Valley West 110, Oakville 105, Thornhill 101, Oak Ridges-Markham Carleton-Lanark Pickering-Scarborough East St-Paul s Newmarket-Aurora Vaughan Nepean-Carleton

4 with lower income generate lower voter turnout. This suggests a relationship between personal deficits and democratic ones. Federal with Lowest Income in 2001 and voter turnout Rates in 2004 Winnipeg Centre 34, Hochelaga Bourassa Rosemont-La Petite Patrie Dauphin-Swan River Matapedia-Matane Random-Burin-St. George s Vancouver East Quebec Sydney-Victoria 39, Areas of high unemployment also tend to produce lower voter turnout. There were however exceptions to this in ridings in the Province of Nova Scotia. In addition, the ridings with the country s lowest rates of unemployment tended to produce higher rates of voter turnout. Federal with Highest Unemployment Rates in 2001 and voter turnout Rates in 2004 Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Random-Burin-St.George s Bonavista-Exploits Churchill River Cape Breton-Canso Sydney-Victoria Miramichi Labrador Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine Churchill Federal with Lowest Unemployment Rates in 2001 and voter turnout Rates in 2004 Gatineau Halton Cypress Hills-Grasslands Newmarket-Aurora York-Simcoe Dufferin-Caledon Vercheres-les Patriotes Essex Vaughan Ancaster Dundas Flamborough Westdale

5 For the most part, ridings with the highest rates of university degree holders tend to produce higher rates of voter participation. However, Quebec ridings tend to constitute somewhat of an exception to this situation. Federal with Highest Numbers of University Degree University Holders in 2001 and voter turnout Rates in 2004 St-Paul s 41, Toronto Centre 39, Ottawa Centre 39, Don Valley West 36, Trinity-Spadina 36, Willowdale 32, Outremont 32, Parkdale-High Park 29, Eglington-Lawrence 29, Laurier 29, Concerns over Low As observed below, concerns with low voter turnout are especially high in British Columbia and Ontario and lowest in the Atlantic Provinces. Voter turnout in Canadian elections has declined in recent years. How are you about Region Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies B.C. Provinces Very DK/NA Anglophones are more than francophones, whereas allophones appear least over the issue.

6 Voter turnout in Canadian elections has declined in recent years. How are you about Language at home English French Other Very DK/NA Seniors are more than youth over the issue, which may be seen as paradoxical as older Canadians are more engaged in the process. Voter turnout in Canadian elections has declined in recent years. How are you about Age Very DK/NA Canadians that are the most dissatisfied with the federal government are the most by low voter turnout rate and not surprisingly therefore it is Conservative and NDP supporters that are the most preoccupied with this situation. Voter turnout in Canadian elections has declined in recent years. How are you about Federal Government Satisfaction Satisfied dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Very DK/NA - - -

7 As for party preference, it is the supporters of the Conservative Party that expressed the most concern over the issue of low voter turnout, followed by the supporters of the NDP. Supporters of the Liberal Party and the Bloc are the least over this issue. Voter turnout in Canadian elections has declined in recent years. How are you about Federal Vote Liberal Conservative NPD Bloc Very DK/NA