BREXIT Result : Key Technical Levels 23rd June 2016
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1 Andy Dodd MSTA adodd@louiscapital.com Twitter BREXIT Result : Key Technical Levels 23rd June 2016 Equity Technical Dashboard Market Supports Resistances Market Supports Resistances S&P Dow 30 17,331 16,933 16,588 17,978 18,289 NDX SX5E DAX ,474 10,594 10,828 FTSE GBPUSD EURUSD Equity markets already seeming to be discounting a leave result from todays vote and I would urge caution on news longs at current levels based on recent price action as risk reward remains to the downside whilst trends are intact. Having said that there is obviously a good chance of a further pop higher on a stay result but such a move will need to hold into tomorrows close to confirm any breaks. The FTSE 100 and Cable in particular are trying to break above their respective downtrends in todays session and a further rally tomorrow would bring it closer to the neckline of a bullish H&S reversal pattern. The above table is designed to give a quick overview of trends and levels. Please see my comments on the individual charts below for a more detailed view.
2 S&P Cash The 2120 level remains key resistance, with a break above there allowing for more upside towards On a move lower the first level to be aware of is the support at 2019 as a break of that level would confirm a bearish top pattern which would suggest more downside in all time frames. There is also a POTENTIAL short-term top forming on the daily chart (See below). S&P Cash Weekly Chart Short-Term on a move lower be aware that there is a potential top pattern forming and a break below the neckline is needed to confirm that pattern. Should this occur expect more downside with a test of the most likely scenario.
3 Dow Jones The rejection of a move above 17,978 left a bearish candle which suggested more downside, which has so far proved the case, but a break above there would now leave a bullish continuation pattern which would allow for a retest of 18,289. On a further move lower the key level to be aware of remains at 17,331 which is the neckline of a potential bearish top pattern. As with all such patterns the neckline needs to fail as a support before it is confirmed but a close below there tomorrow evening would suggest a move lower towards the uptrend and support at 16,588. Weekly Log Chart
4 NASDAQ 100 The Bearish Engulfing candle, left by the rejection of a break above a short-term downtrend, proved a good early warning of the continued drift lower from that trend and there remains no real reason to be a buyer here whilst that trend is intact. On a further move lower the 4282 support will be key as it is also now the neckline of a potential top pattern. Longer-term there is also a POTENTIAL large H&S forming but the neckline of that pattern is currently too far from current levels to be relevant just yet. Only a break above 4562 would change the picture here as such a move would allow for the possibility of more upside but the monthly charts remain bearish suggesting this is unlikely. Weekly Log Chart
5 SX5E The index sold off from the neckline of a large bearish top pattern and is now continuing its rally from the 2790 support toward that neckline once again. The measured target for the top pattern is some way lower than the supports shown in this chart but downside following todays vote should be limited whilst the longer-term uptrend, which dates back to 2008, is intact. That trend sits at around 2520 but that may not be that accurate as it will depend on exactly which angle it its drawn and that is very subjective. Supports of note are at 2611, which coincides with a level on the daily chart at 2608, with 2495 below at around the same level as the uptrend. In case of any over-reaction on a move lower I would be very surprised to see a close below the latter. To the upside I would imagine that the market is to some extent already discounting a remain vote and the index would need to break above 3177 before a bullish reversal pattern is confirmed on this weekly chart. Interestingly the longer-term monthly hasn t really rallied that much since Februarys bullish Hammer and the weekly futures chart will leave a bullish gap if we close near current session high on tomorrows close. Weekly Log Chart
6 SX5E Short-Term AS with the weekly chart the area around 2608 is a big support to be aware of on a pullback tomorrow with the same longer term uptrend still intact some way below there. The continuation of the rally from 2790 has today taken the index above a short-term downtrend as resistance at 2978 but that needs to hold into the close before any such break is confirmed. Should the index close near current session lows it would leave a bearish Shooting Star candle which would suggest a resumption of the move lower in line with the trend. On a move higher there is just under 8% upside until a longer-term downtrend, which sits at around the same level as the 3279 resistance, is reached and the index needs to break above 3157 before any kind of reversal pattern is confirmed. As a result, risk/reward is still to the downside from here. Daily Log Chart
7 DAX Cash The index remains in a medium term downtrend, with a series of lower lows and highs, and has so far rejected moves above the neckline of a large top pattern. As a result, risk reward remains to the downside from here whilst that trend is intact as the measured target for the top pattern is down at 6,370, a level which coincides with a long-term uptrend dating back to The gap higher at the start of this week will however leave a bullish Abandoned Baby reversal pattern on this weekly chart, which would suggest more upside if confirmed and a close tomorrow above 10,474 would also invalidate the downtrend. To the downside the first major support is at 9338 with 8913, from where the index rallied following Januarys sell off the next level of note. Below those levels is a longer-term support at 8131, which is also relevant on the monthly chart. Weekly Log Chart
8 DAX Cash Short Term Similar to SX5E a close near current session lows would leave a bearish Shooting Star candle which, if confirmed, would suggest a resumption of the move lower. Daily Log Chart
9 FTSE 100 (Cash) The index sold off from its downtrend on the pullback earlier this month but found support at 5932, where it posted a bullish Hammer on 15 th June which suggested a rally from that level. The Hammer proved its worth and the index rallied back to close just above its downtrend in yesterdays session where it left a bearish Inverted Hammer which has so far been ignored as those gains were extended earlier today. Todays close would usually be important for the future direction of the index, as a close near current session lows would leave another bearish candle and suggest a resumption of the move lower from the downtrend. The key levels to be aware of tomorrow are the resistance at as closing break above there would both invalidate the downtrend AND confirm a bullish H&S reversal pattern. Should that pattern be confirmed there will be scope for plenty more medium term upside towards 6697 and, on extension, Should the trend hold and the index resume its move lower the first level is at 5932 but there isn t really much in the way of further supports until Daily Log Chart FX Below
10 GBPUSD Cable has remained in a downtrend, which dates back to the 2014 high, and the move lower gathered pace on the failure of as a support on the last day of The pair has failed to close above that downtrend ever since but is attempting to break above it in todays session. The pair had already broken above the neckline of a bullish H&S reversal pattern back in April and I would have been long on that break were it not for the downtrend above. As with the FTSE todays close will be important technically as it will either validate or invalidate the downtrend, with a clean break of allowing for more upside towards the measured target of the reversal pattern, but a close near current session lows leaving a bearish Inverted Hammer. Key supports on a move lower are at , from where the pair rallied on the last leg lower, with the swing lower as a short-term level below. Longer-term there are only two real levels below which are at and finally , below which is simply air until almost parity. Daily Log Chart
11 EURUSD The pair remains in a short-term uptrend having broken out of a longer-term downtrend back in February. Key levels to the upside are the resistance at 1.164, where I previously suggested closing longs, followed by which is also the neckline of a potential double bottom reversal pattern. On a failure of the uptrend there is support between and the Marabuzo, derived from the Bullish Engulfing candle back in December. Weekly Log Chart Recommended reading list below
12 For a good understanding of the candlestick patterns mentioned in the report this book my good friend Clive Lambert is perfect. Paperback/dp/B00KLO7O2C/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid= &sr=8-4&keywords=clive+candlestic For an in depth study of technical analysis this book by John j. Murphy is widely recognized in TA circles as the bible. Comprehensive/dp/ /ref=sr_1_sc_1?ie=UTF8&qid= &sr=8-1- spell&keywords=tedchnical+analysis+of+the+financial+markets For more information on any point and figure charts the Jeremy du Plessis book below gives an in depth tutorial. Comprehensive/dp/ /ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid= &sr=8-1&keywords=point+and+figure+charting Note that these are general comments about markets and the time frames may not always match your investment criteria. As always position sizing is more important than the ideas and levels. I always encourage clients to ask for chart views and asset allocation ideas that have been written specifically for them and their individual time frames and risk tolerances. If you would like to play any of these ideas through derivatives our options desk will be happy to suggest strategies. Important notice / disclaimer This material was prepared by Louis Capital Markets UK LLP, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under ref This document must be treated as a marketing communication for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC as it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research; and although Louis Capital Markets UK LLP is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, Louis Capital Markets UK LLP applies this prohibition through its internal systems and controls. The analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this marketing communication certify that: (1) the views expressed and attributed to the research analyst or analysts in the report accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other subject matter as appropriate; and, (2) no part of their compensation will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. Louis Capital Markets UK LLP has effective organisational and administrative arrangements set up within the firm for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to research Recommendations, including information barriers. This document is for the use of the addressees only and is not intended for nor should be disseminated
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