Greening the Power Mix. Policies for Expanding Solar Photovoltaic Electricity in Viet Nam

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1 Greening the Power Mix Policies for Expanding Solar Photovoltaic Electricity in Viet Nam 1

2 1. Energy policy developments 2

3 SDG 7, INDC, REDS, PDP 7 -revised In 2015 Viet Nam agreed the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris-Outcome of the UNFCCC COP21 The Renewable Energy Development Strategy (to 2030, with vision to 2050) was approved in November 2015 ( REDS ). Power Development Plan 7 ( with a vision to 2030) was adjusted in March 2016 ( PDP7-revised ), including RE targets These will significantly reduce Viet Nam s greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and help achieve its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC: New power sector policies would meet the (power-sector share in) the national 25% emissions reduction target against Business-as-Usual ( BAU ) of the INDC by 2030, which is the "supported" INDC mitigation target. (The power sector is expecting to receive ODA) 3

4 Viet Nam s INDC compared Fossil fuel use in the power sector, notably coal-based power, is the primary contributor to future greenhouse gas emissions: The BAU in the INDC means Viet Nam would emit 7.4 tonnes equivalent carbon dioxide / capita in 2030 (whole economy) The domestic 8% target (below BAU) in the INDC means it would emit nearly 7 tonnes CO 2 e/capita emissions in 2030 The 25% supported target (below BAU) would lead to about 5.3 tonnes CO 2 e /capita in 2030 The EU s average emissions are projected to be 6 tonnes CO 2 e/capita in 2030 (whole economy) COP21 Paris: ambition must increase (but not strictly before 2020) PDP7-revised and the REDS are commendable, yet should be fully achieved if not over-achieved for meeting the Paris aims 4

5 2030 power demand ; RE in power mix (PDP VII Total: 695 TWh/year) (PDP VII-revised Total: 572 TWh/year) 10,1 3,8 6 9,3 5,7 1,2 10,7 12,4 14,4 53,2 16,8 56,4 Renewable Energy (%) hydro (%) natural gas (%) coal (%) nuclear (%) import (%) 5

6 Renewable Energy targets (PDP7-revised = REDS) 2050 RE Strtgy 2030 RE Strtgy 2030 PDPVII 2020 RE Strtgy 2020 PDPVII 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0 500,0 Total electricity from biomass (TWh/yr) Total hydropower production (TWh/yr) Total electricity from wind (TWh/yr) Total electricity from solar (TWh/yr) 6

7 From PDP7 to PDP7-rev. (2030), REDS (2050) Total power demand projection decreased Wind targets unchanged Solar PV targets added; but only by 2050 solar becomes significant (20% total power production) Bio-power targets increased Total hydro (large, small, pumped storage) increased a bit Nuclear power delayed, targets 2020, 2030 decreased Import targets decreased Gas targets increased Total coal decreased, proportion coal also decreased Coal import expectations decreased, but stay significant Coal remains the dominant future source of power, also after 2050 Projections of Renewable Energy growth are conservative 7

8 2. The real costs of coal 8

9 Negative impacts of coal-based power are external to prices: looks cheap, is expensive Quang Ninh; Binh Thuan

10 Disadvantages of coal-based power Coal mining and coal transport have negative impacts on environments, health, livelihoods Vast quantities of waste from coal-power plants, which must be transported, landfilled and/or used Low environmental standards for coal-power plants, causing air pollution Externalities are (virtually) not included in price, but the REDS proposes a fee on fossil fuels Increasing dependency on coal imports for power production (despite PDP7 revision) Need coal supply during the lifetime of the power plant 10

11 PM2.5 level in 2030 attributed to planned Vietnamese coalfired plants according to PDP VII: estimated 21,000 additional premature deaths/year μg/m 3 11

12 Indirect subsidies for fossil fuels in Viet Nam are decreasing Energy Source Oil Gas Coal Electricity Total (billion USD) But they are not zero, and this is an under-estimate. 12

13 Viet Nam s average power tariffs (VND/kWh) have been constant, despite popular belief Current price (VND/kWh) Constant 2002 prices (VND/kWh) 13

14 and average power tariffs are low compared to other countries (USDcents/kWh in 2015) ,6 5 0 Brazil China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam Average power tariff (USD cents/kwh) 14

15 The effects of a carbon price on the cost of coal-power the power plant) ,1 7,24 6,75 7,9 7,41 8,56 6,46 7,61 6,83 8 9,21 10,4 8,8 9, Mao Khe Cam Pha QuangNinh 1 QuangNinh 2 Na Duong 2 Long Phu 1 SongHau 1 B.Coal price increase by 2% per year B.Carbon price of 10$/metric tonne CO2 B.Carbon price of 5$/metric tonne CO2 15

16 3. The huge potential of solar PV 16

17 Favourable solar irradiation in much of the country 17

18 Advantages solar Photovoltaic (PV) power Very few negative environmental, health or livelihood impacts Domestic industry could be developed and jobs created Reduces Viet Nam s dependency on energy imports Enable remote communities and islands, businesses to improve power supply and reduce their electricity bills (SDG7) After initial investment there is no need for inputs Solar PV power plant construction can be fast, meet growing demand Cost prices are low in other countries and steadily reducing. In countries with favourable conditions, large-scale solar PV has a levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) of 6-7 USD cents/ kwh: below the current cost of coal and gas-based power in Viet Nam (and even without a carbon price) 18

19 International power cost ranges (USD/kWh; 2014) 19

20 Developing solar PV power in Viet Nam Perceived high financial risks of investment ( cost of capital) and limited capacities for manufacture, installation and operation, so the LCOE in Viet Nam will initially be higher than coal and gas-based power. Solar PV needs subsidy, or fossil fuel-based power should be made expensive with a carbon price (internalize the real costs) (REDS: environmental fee ) This will force the average electricity tariff up, but additional revenue can be used to: (a) help poor households and certain businesses cope with that (ref UNDP), and (b) stimulate renewable energy (REDS: Sustainable Energy Promotion Fund ) Other measures, also proposed in the REDS mean that the Government pays or foregoes revenue: investment credit; various tax exemptions; reduced land (-lease) costs. 20

21 Solar PV Feed-in-Tariffs (FiTs) in Viet Nam Assumptions: system = 1,766 USD/kWp & islands +25%; no batteries; useful life min. 20 years; equity repaid in 10 or 20 years; equity return 10 or 15%; no land cost; no tax incentives; 5% O&M; GHI = 4.50 kwh/kwp per day; losses are 0.50 kwh/kwp; no performance degradation. Optimistic scenario: 10% equity return, FiT = 0.18 USD/kWh (years 1-10) & USD 0.09 /kwh (years 11-20); or 0.15 USD/kWh (20 years) This is: low by international comparison; high compared with retail tariffs; higher than draft solar PV Decision (0.112 USD/kWh for 20 years) But: upfront investment costs can be reduced, as with time (3 years?) system costs comes down; investment guarantees; tax incentives; other public support and PPPs. So: treat this as maximum FiT Islands, optimistic scenario: 10% return; small battery bank; FiT = 0.22 USD/kWh (years 1-10) & USD 0.11 /kwh (years 11-20); or 0.19 USD/kWh (20 years). (LCoE of diesel is 0.40 USD/kWh or higher) 21

22 Distributed Solar PV in Viet Nam (grid-connected rooftop, mini-grids, off-grid) Assumptions: as solar PV plants; especially off-grid and mini-grid in remote areas incl. battery bank; rooftop is net-consumer of grid power. Optimistic scenario: 10% equity return rate and favourable irradiation levels, the estimated LCoE is also 15 USD cents/kwh (20-year lifetime). (draft solar PV support policy: 14 USD cents/kwh) Recommendation: No premium FiT, but for grid-connected only netmetering against prevailing retail tariff, which is currently below 15 USD cents/kwh and for certain cases well above the average retail tariff of 7.6 USD cents/kwh (2015); see current tariff figures. Furthermore: retail tariff will go up (carbon price?!), as solar PV costs will come down; tax incentives are in REDS and draft solar PV policy. Remote areas and islands: Many solar configurations to improve access are affordable, compared to the alternatives, incl. off-grid rooftop and mini-grids; grid-connected rooftop and community systems. 22

23 Incremental Block Tariff scheme: electricity prices for households Decision 28/2014/QĐ-TTg 2256/QĐ-BCT (12/03/15) 1USD=VND21,458 (2015) average retail price: (% of) VND 1,622 USD kwh/month 92% VND 1,492 USD % VND 1,541 USD % VND 1,784 USD % VND 2,238 USD % VND 2,498 USD >400 kwh/month 159% VND 2,579 USD Prepaid card 132% VND 2,141 USD

24 Decision 28/2014/QĐ-TTg 2256/QĐ-BCT (12/03/15) 1USD=VND21,458 (2015) average retail price: (% of) VND 1,622 USD Manufacturing units 1.1 Voltage > 110 kv a) normal hours 84% 1, b) low hours 52% c) peak hours 150% 2, Voltage 22 kv -110 kv a) normal hours 85% 1, b) low hours 54% c) peak hours 156% 2, Voltage 6 kv - 22 kv a) normal hours 88% 1, b) low hours 56% c) peak hours 161% 2, Voltage < 6 kv a) normal hours 92% 1, b) low hours 59% c) peak hours 167% 2, Commercial business 3.1 Voltage > 22 kv a) normal hours 133% 2, b) low hours 75% 1, c) peak hours 230% 3, Voltage 6 kv - 22 kv a) normal hours 143% 2, b) low hours 85% 1, c) peak hours 238% 3, Voltage below 6 kv a) normal hours 145% 2, b) low hours 89% 1, c) peak hours 248% 3, Electricity retail tariffs in Viet Nam per selected user category Normal hours: Mon-Sat 04h00-09h30; 11h30-17h00; 20h00-22h00. Sun 04h00-22h00 low hours: Mon-Sun 22h00-04h00 Peak hours: Mon-Sat 09h30-11h30; 17h00-20h00 24

25 4. Summary of Recommendations 25

26 Recommendations to achieve or overachieve the INDC and REDS targets 1. The draft solar policy proposes a Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) of 11.2 USD cents/kwh, but this is widely thought unrealistic, for now. Recommend a FiT of 15 USD cents/kwh for mainland solar PV power plants, and 19 USD cents/kwh for power plants on islands, over a lifetime period of 20 years. 2. Make these maximum FiTs, and negotiate or auction investment projects so that the prices will become progressively lower 3. Consider setting portfolio standards for power generation companies (GENCOMs) i.e. a specific share of electricity produced by e.g. solar PV. 4. Phase out all forms of support to coal-based power and introduce an environmental fee and/or carbon price on the use of fossil fuels (REDS) 5. Gradually increase the average electricity retail tariff by 5-10% per year over three years, and protect low income households and certain business 26

27 6. Regulate net-metering for rooftop and community solar PV systems (excess power into the grid; are net-consumers from the grid) 7. Financially support on-grid and off-grid solar PV systems in remote areas and islands (use ODA for this) 8. Provide tax and other incentives to reduce investment costs of solar PV power plants, rooftop and community solar PV (as per the REDS). 9. Build capacities of regulators, power companies, businesses, communities (use ODA for this) 10.Issue an investable solar Power Purchase Agreement (PPA); technical & environmental standards; net-metering procedures, etc. (use ODA) These and other renewable energy policy recommendations are urgent and critical for achieving, or overachieving the INDC & REDS targets on renewable energy and greenhouse gas emission reduction. 27

28 Thank You for Your Attention!! 28

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