ORG Presentation at UBS Conference

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1 To Company Announcements Office Facsimile Company ASX Limited Date 19 June 2014 From Helen Hardy Pages 14 Subject ORG Presentation at UBS Conference Please find attached a release on the above subject. Regards Helen Hardy Company Secretary Origin Energy Limited ACN Level 45 Australia Square, George Street, Sydney NSW 2000 GPO Box 5376, Sydney NSW 2001 Telephone (02) Facsimile (02)

2 Origin Energy UBS Resources, Energy and Utilities Conference Frank Calabria, Chief Executive Officer Energy Markets 19 June 2014

3 Important Notice Forward looking statements This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results expressed or implied by such statements. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of Origin and cannot be predicted by Origin and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause objectives to change as well as risks, circumstances and events specific to the industry, countries and markets in which Origin and its related bodies corporate, joint ventures and associated undertakings operate. They also include general economic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, the regulatory environment, competitive pressures, selling price, market demand and conditions in the financial markets which may cause objectives to change or may cause outcomes not to be realised. None of Origin Energy Limited or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents) (the Relevant Persons) makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking statements. The forward looking statements in this presentation reflect views held only at the date of this presentation. Statements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Except as required by applicable law or the ASX Listing Rules, the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking to publicly update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. No offer of securities This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction. 2

4 Since Origin was established in 2000 it has pursued a strategy of connecting resources to markets The leading integrated energy markets business in Australia and New Zealand Flexible and diverse fuel portfolio Flexible and diverse generation portfolio Leading retail customer base A regionally significant player in natural gas and LNG A leading producer of gas in Australia Joint developer of Australia Pacific LNG s two train CSG to LNG project Domestic and international gas exploration opportunities With a growing position in renewable energy in the Pacific region Growing competencies in geothermal, hydro and wind to complement position in natural gas 3 The Energy Markets business has been pivotal to this strategy, emerging as the leading retailer and generator in Australia

5 The electricity industry across the NEM has faced a number of challenges over the last few years Increased solar penetration and energy efficiency measures reducing average household consumption Reduced industrial demand and increased renewable generation resulting in an over-supplied wholesale market with diminished returns Regulatory uncertainty, both at a State and Federal level $/MWh Electricity Gross Profit FY2012 FY2013 1H FY2014 Electricity average usage per customer Heightened market activity across the industry, in particular through price competition MWh FY2012 FY2013 1H FY2014* 4 * 1H FY2014 annualised Source: Origin reports. Electricity average usage per customer calculated as Mass Market Electricity Volumes divided by electricity customers.

6 While near term challenges remain, Energy Markets is well positioned to capture growth opportunities over the medium term FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY Significant gas portfolio benefits 2 Wholesale electricity market recovery 3 Market reform, including deregulation 4 Retail capability & enhanced customer experience 5 with the gas portfolio, in particular, providing significant upside from FY2015 and beyond

7 1 Gas portfolio benefits East Coast gas demand is expected to more than triple driven by the international LNG market Australia s East Coast Gas Demand 1 PJ 2,500 LNG Domestic 2,000 1,500 1, $/GJ Australian domestic gas prices are moving towards export parity USD 75/bbl Domestic Spot Prices USD USD 85/bbl 105/bbl EnergyQuest Forecast LNG Netback Prices 2 3 Rising wholesale prices are being reflected in the recent NSW retail gas tariffs determination providing for an average increase of 17.6% in FY2015 driving an increase in Australian gas prices, enabling Origin to benefit from monetising its gas position both domestically and internationally 6 (1) Source: AEMO Gas Statement of Opportunities 2013 (2) Average annual spot prices across VIC, NSW, SA and QLD. NSW and SA spot market began trading on 1 September 2010, QLD on 1 December All prices are to 31 Dec 2013 (3) EnergyQuest report Australia Coal Seam Gas 2013: All Aboard the LNG Train. Netback at Wallumbilla

8 1 Gas portfolio benefits Having gas portfolio length has enabled Origin to execute a number of large gas contracts at attractive prices PJ/a Sources of Origin Energy Markets East Coast Contracted Gas Portfolio Ironbark (new equity gas) APLNG purchases 1 Other purchases Origin's existing equity gas Executed agreements with C&I customers and other LNG projects GLNG PJ over 10 years from 2015 QCLNG up to 30 PJ in calendar year 2014 & 2015 GLNG up to 194 PJ over 5 years from 2016 MMG Group 22 PJ over 7 years from Calendar Year underpinning growth in Energy Markets for a number of years to come 7 (1) Potential development

9 1 Gas portfolio benefits Complementing our strong gas position is Origin s transport flexibility and portfolio of gas-fired generation assets Flexible gas transport agreements provide Energy Markets with bi-directional haulage on most major pipelines in eastern Australia Origin s gas-fired generation portfolio provides another channel to monetise gas reserves when electricity prices are high or during periods of excess gas in the market, either during LNG ramp-up or through LNG planned outages 8 providing the ability to move gas to the highest priced markets and to better manage periods of excess gas supply

10 2 Wholesale electricity market recovery The tightening gas market is likely to result in reduced gasfired generation across the NEM NEM baseload bid stack 1 (no carbon) SRMC $/Mwh PV Wind Brown Increase in gas SRMC 2014 to 2015 Gas-fired generation currently provides approximately 12% of the NEM s energy requirements but short run marginal cost (SRMC) of gas-fired generation to increase as gas prices rise towards international pricing In the normal course, it would be expected that market participants will act to better balance supply with demand to restore reasonable returns in the wholesale market Black 214 Gas EnergyTwh SRMC at 2014 fuel prices SRMC at 2015 fuel prices which together with increased demand from LNG electrification improves the outlook for the wholesale electricity market (1) Based on Origin modelling, 2014 & 2015 fuel prices 9

11 3 Market reform The RET scheme is under review with current targets requiring new investment in excess of growth in demand TWh 2007 Policy 2013 AEMO adjusted demand Current Estimate of demand in RET Target LRET SRES Hydro/Pre-Existing Total Renewables (TWh) Renewable/Demand (%) 20% 29% 16% Annual Cost of Green Schemes For Residential NSW Customers 2 Balance to targets TWh 60 TWh 23 True 20% (46 TWh) 9 20% of 230 TWh is 46 TWh. Accounting for 37 TWh of existing renewables, this leaves 9 TWh to meet a true 20% by 2020 target Total cost of the RET to the consumer, including feed-in-tariffs for solar PV is $145, or $22/MWh 3 resulting in increased costs to consumers (1) Includes committed projects (2) Source: IPart, $2013/14, typical customer using 6.5 MWh per annum, includes GST and energy losses, forecast inflation is 2.5% 10 (3) Based on typical customer usage of 6.5 MWh per annum

12 3 Market reform Outside of the RET review, a number of structural changes are occurring in the energy market Deregulation of NSW electricity prices from July 2014, with Queensland likely to follow in July 2015 Removal of green schemes such as the Victorian Energy Efficiency Target (VEET) and the Queensland Gas Scheme Reduction in state-based solar feed-in tariffs Regulatory reviews of network price determinations in Queensland and NSW Potential repeal of the carbon price reducing regulatory risk for retailers and costs to consumers 11

13 4 Retail capability & enhanced customer experience Our SAP billing platform has stabilised, providing increased capability to deliver an enhanced customer experience Improved customer experience... Leading the market towards extended operating hours and removal of exit fees Launched customer service hubs Implemented EasiPay to allow customer to better manage their household budgets... enabling greater customer satisfaction and retention as well as lower cost-to-serve Increased retention improving churn relative to market and lowering acquisition costs Improved billing performance reducing bad debts and increasing cash flow 12 with a number of measures already implemented

14 Thank you For more information David Moon Group Manager, Investor Relations Office: Mobile:

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