Rapporto sulla Stabilità Finanziaria Novembre 2013

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1 Rapporto sulla Stabilità Finanziaria Novembre 2013 Fabio Panetta Member of the Governing Board - Banca d Italia Milano, Università Bocconi - 18 Novembre 2013

2 Outline of the Presentation o The macroeconomic context o The real-estate market o The financial condition of households and firms o The banking system

3 Overview of Main Risks Main risks for financial stability (EA, Italy): Trend o economic outlook o uncertainty on sovereign debt o financial fragmentation o credit risk in the banking sector

4 Macroeconomic Context Euro Area: coincident indicator of GDP growth coin (monthly data, %) GDP (quarterly data, %) o The EA economy resumed growth in Upturn will continue in Italy: industrial production and confidence o Italy: leading indicators consistent with cyclical upturn o Confidence is rising, IP is stabilizing. Positive growth forecast for 2014 and 2015 o But recovery remains fragile both in Italy and in the EA. Financial risks still significant

5 Italy s Property Market: Weak but Stabilizing House prices in Europe (2000=100) o Italy has not experienced a housing bubble. Price dynamics consistent with fundamentals Italy: residential property (2005=100) house prices number of transactions o Property mkt still weak, but with signs of stabilization 80 ono. of transaction stabilized 70 for both residential and non 60 residential property oin Q2 the fall in house prices 50 eased (0.6% qoq) 40 5

6 Households Financial Conditions Financial debt / disposable income (%) Mortgage loans Consumer credit Other loans dic 07 dic 10 giu 13 dic 07 dic 10 giu 13 dic 07 dic 10 giu 13 dic 07 dic 10 giu 13 dic 07 dic 10 giu 13 dic 07 dic 10 giu 13 dic 07 dic 10 giu 13 italy France Germany Spain Euro Area United Kingdom United States Financial assets / disposable Income o Italian households have sound financial conditions: o Debt/disposable income ratio is low; debt is declining. o Only 25% of households have financial debt. Share of financially vulnerable households is low (3% of total in 2013 and 2014) o Financial wealth is high o The main risks derive from weak income growth 6

7 The Financial Condition of Firms Debt and leverage of non-financial firms (%) ofirm profitability is still low, affected by recession. Lending conditions are still tight o Financial debt is falling. The increase of leverage has ended Firms assessment of investment conditions o Entrepreneurs assessment of investment conditions is improving rapidly 7

8 The Financial Condition of Firms (2) Question: DOES THE COMPANY EXPECTS A SOLID IMPROVEMENT OF PRODUCTION IN THE COMING MONTHS? PAYMENTS FROM GENERAL GOVERNMENT FOR ARREARS NO YES Firm is not a creditor 66,3 33,7 Firm is a creditor, and: - did not receive any advance 69,3 30,7 - received some advance payments o Firm confidence is benefiting from the payment of general government arrears ( 27bn in 2013, 20bn 2014); 14bn disbursed up to October 2013 o Up to now, funds have been used mainly to reimburse commercial and bank debt 8

9 Banks Key Problem: Rising Credit Risk NPLs and bad loans of Italian banks (% of loans) NPLs Bad loans Profitability and Provisions of Italian Banks (billion euros) Operating Profits Provisions and Net Value Adjustments for Loan Impairment o Credit quality is deteriorating, driven by loans to non-financial corporations (NFCs). HHs more resilient o Gross (operating) profits have resumed growth in 2012 (but 2013 results likely affected by low rates) o The increase in provisioning is eating up a large part of gross profits. Net profitability is low

10 Banks Key Problem: Rising Credit Risk (2) New NPLs of non financial firms (% of loans) New NPL rate New bad loan rate o Gross operating profits sufficient to cover loan loss provisions in 2013 and 2014 o The flow of new NPL and of bad loans to non financial companies are showing signs of a turnaround

11 Italy s Classification Standards Are Rigorous NPL ratio of Italian banks (% of loans) Coverage ratio of Italian banks (% of NPLs) Accounting and supervisory standards of Italian banks December 2012 December 2012 Accounting and supervisory standards of large European banks o Italian banks follow prudent supervisory standards o If Italian banks followed the standards used in other jurisdictions (e.g. excluding fully-collateralized NPLs) then: othe NPL ratio would be 1/3 lower ocoverage ratios would be higher by 20 pct. points Accounting and supervisory standards of Italian banks Accounting and supervisory standards of large European banks onpl definition proposed by EBA is in line with (or less comprehensive than) Italy s definition 0

12 Stock of NPLs Will Have to Be Reduced o Market for assets securitization very thin. Price differential between supply and demand of NPL large but likely to narrow: o The Bank of Italy s recent action on value adjustments o Reduced financial market fragmentation (economic recovery, SSM comprehensive assessment) o The Stability Bill for 2014 provisions on tax treatment of loan losses and value adjustments

13 Banks Holding of Sovereign Bonds Purchases of sovereign bonds by Italian banks bn Italian sovereign bonds of non-residents bn o Large purchases of domestic sovereigns over 2 years. a. ample differential sov s vs loans b. precautionary demand c. fragmentation o In last 3 months sov. portfolio shrank ( 10bn), due to improvement in (a), (b), (c). o Sov. mkt conditions improving. Not just rates and spreads: foreign holdings are increasing

14 The Funding Gap is Low Growth in bank funding: contributions (percentage points; 12-month changes) ototal funding is contracting (in part as a result of banks choices) Retail Funding and Funding Gap Funding Gap as a Percentage of Loans othe funding gap has narrowed to very low levels 5 0 Retail Funding (12 month pct growth) -5 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13

15 Liquidity Conditions and Eurosystem Borrowing 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Composition of Italian Banks' Funding Dec Dec Dec Jun Retail Wholesale Eurosystem refinancing Availability of Collateral for Italian banks 302 bn. 334 bn. o Overall liquidity position is satisfactory o Dependence on ECB funding significant but falling o banks (especially large ones) have regained access to wholesale markets o Available eligible assets continue to increase o Ongoing work to make revolving loans (an Italian feature) and pools of loans pledgeable

16 Capital Positions Continue to Strengthen 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% Top 5 Banking Groups Total Capital Ratio Core Tier (June) 13% 11% 9% Other Banks Total Capital Ratio Core Tier (June) o Capital ratios have increased continuously since 2008, as a result of both capital issues and lower RWAs Bank capital injections by the public sector in selected countries ( bn) Italy: 0,3% of GDP o The amount of public funds injected into the banking system by the Italian State is low

17 Banks Leverage is Low Leverage: main European banking systems (December 2012) oleverage (total assets/ tier 1 capital) remains low 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Source:Bank of Italy, FSR n 6 European banks level 3 assets (%) Lev. 3 assets/ tot. system assets Lev. 3 assets/ tot. sample assets Lev. 3 assets/ RWA sample (mkt) (right axis) Italy Germany France Belgium Netherlands Total olevel 3 assets are negligible

18 Capital Needs: the FSAP of the IMF Scenarios IMF FSAP estimates of cumulated capital shortfall (billion euros) CET 1 T 1 # of failing banks # of failing capital shortfall capital shortfall banks bn % of GDP bn % of GDP Baseline (at end-2017) Low growth (at end-2017) Adverse (at end-2015) Capital benchmark: Basel 3 phasing in for both CET1 and T1. o IMF (FSAP, Sept. 2013): 32 banks, individual data: o capital need in stressed conditions bn ( % GDP) o shortfalls mainly in small-medium local banks o Estimates of private analysts: based on heterogeneous hypotheses and methodologies, but results are of similar magnitude

19 Summary Assessment & Outlook o The Italian banking system has shown strong resilience in the face of an exceptional economic crisis o A successful, gradual exit from currently stressed condition is possible o SSM and BSA will enhance transparency. They are not a further problem. They are part of the solution

20 Summary Assessment & Outlook o Economic recovery after a double dip recession is the critical success factor for Italian banks. It is a precondition to start reduction of the stock of nonperforming loans and to restore profitability o Expectations for key ECB interest rates to remain low for as long as necessary provide support to recovery o Continuing national efforts at reform of the economy and consolidation of public finances are key

21 Thank you!

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