Producer price indices for transport and logistics services

Transcription

1 Statistisches Bundesamt Quality Report Producer price indices for transport and logistics services Periodicity: irregular Published in For further information about this puplication please contact: Phone: +49 (0) 611 / ; Fax: +49 (0) ; Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden 2012 Reproduction and distribution, also of parts, are permitted provided that the source is mentioned.

2 Abstract 1 General information on the statistics page 3 Name of the statistics: producer price indices for transport and logistics services Survey date: middle of the reference quarter, or monthly or quarterly averages. Periodicity and period for which a time series is available without any break: quarterly from the first quarter of Survey population and principle of allocating the survey units: representative survey of enterprises, self-employed persons and freelancers in NACE areas or WZ divisions 492, 494, 502, 5121, 521, 5224, 53. Legal bases: Price Statistics Law, Federal Statistics Law, EU Regulation concerning short-term statistics. Confidentiality and data protection: as a basic principle, confidentiality is ensured pursuant to Art. 16 of the Federal Statistics Law. 2 Purpose and goals of the statistics page 3 Survey content: service prices including excise duties, but excluding VAT; price-forming factors. Purpose of the statistics: calculation of producer price indices as indicators of inflation tendencies, deflating of nominal economic values, compensation standard (contract adjustments). Major users of the statistics: European Commission, central banks, federal ministries, economic research institutes, science and research, political community, private individuals, statistics (national accounts), industrial associations, enterprises. User involvement: conversion to a new base year, further development of price indices. 3 Survey methodology page 4 Type of data collection: written or online enquiry with mandatory response; in few cases price collection via the internet/database research, analysis of price systems and price lists. Sampling procedure: multi-stage stratified sampling with cut-off thresholds. Data collection tools and reporting channel: enterprises transmit their data to the Federal Statistical Office; additional analysis of generally accessible sources at the Federal Statistical Office. 4 Accuracy page 5 Overall qualitative assessment of accuracy: Index number with one decimal place; results are final when published for the first time. Sampling errors: quantification not possible because no random sample. Non-sampling errors: Incorrect or inexact data are corrected in the context of plausibility checks. Extrapolations are made for non-response, using suitable indicators. 5 Timeliness and punctuality page 6 Timeliness of final results: maximum of 90 days after the end of the quarter. Punctuality: All publication deadlines are met. 6 Comparability over time and space page 6 Qualitative assessment of comparability: Comparability is ensured within the same base period (five years as a rule), but is limited over several base periods. Changes affecting comparability over time: introduction of new classifications or weighting patterns. 7 Connection with other surveys page 7 Input for other statistics: national accounts. Differences regarding other comparable statistics or results: methodological differences regarding consumer price indices for comparable services (VAT excluded, business clients included). 8 Other information sources page 7 Publication channels, order address: > Publikationen Thematische Veröffentlichungen Preise > Zahlen & Fakten > Datenbanken >Genesis-Online Contact information: (keyword: Dienstleistungspreise) 2

3 1 General information on the statistics 1.1 Name of the statistics (according to EVAS) Producer price indices for transport and logistics services, EVAS No Reference period Quarter (reference months: February, May, August and November) 1.3 Survey date Middle of the reference quarter, or monthly or quarterly averages 1.4 Periodicity and period for which a time series is available without any break Quarterly from the first quarter of 2006; for some sectors, only an annual average is available for Regional coverage Territory of the Federal Republic of Germany. 1.6 Survey population and principle of allocating the survey units The statistics of producer prices for transport and logistics services are based on a representative survey. The field of the survey is defined in accordance with the EU-wide NACE classification. The survey population covers all Germany-based enterprises, self-employed persons and freelancers who provide services of the economic branches 492, 494, 502, 5121, 521, 5224 and 53 (Classification of Economic Activities, Edition 2008 WZ 2008). An exception is the price index for air freight (WZ branch 5121), where foreign providers are included. 1.7 Survey units Survey units are legally independent enterprises, self-employed persons and freelancers. 1.8 Legal bases EU law Council Regulation (EC) No 1165/98 of 19 May 1998 concerning short-term statistics (OJ EC 1998 No L 162, p. 1), last amended by Regulation (EC) No 596/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 June 2009 (OJ EU No L 188, p. 14) Federal law Law on Price Statistics as published in the adjusted version in Federal Law Gazette part III, number 720-9, last amended by Article 20 of the Law of 7 September 2007 (Federal Law Gazette I, p. 2246), Ordinance Implementing the Law on Price Statistics of 29 May 1959 (Federal Bulletin No. 104, p. 1), last amended by Article 5 of the Ordinance of 20 November 1996 (Federal Law Gazette I, p. 1804), in conjunction with the Federal Statistics Law of 22 January 1987 (Federal Law Gazette I, pp. 462, 565), last amended by Article 3 of the Law of 7 September 2007 (Federal Law Gazette I, p. 2246) Land law No Land law as a legal basis Other bases No other legal bases. 1.9 Confidentiality and data protection The individual data collected are generally kept secret in accordance with Article 16 of the Federal Statistics Law (BStatG). Only in a small number of exceptional cases explicitly regulated by law may individual data be passed on. The names and addresses of the respondents are never passed on to third parties. Pursuant to Article 16, para. 6 of the Federal Statistics Law (BStatG), individual data may be passed on to institutions of higher education or other institutions entrusted with independent scientific research for the purpose of carrying out scientific projects, if such data have been anonymised in a way that identifying the relevant respondents or parties concerned would require an unreasonable effort in terms of time, cost and manpower. Persons receiving individual data are also obliged to adhere to the principle of confidentiality. 2 Purpose and goals of the statistics 2.1 Survey content The prices collected for representatively selected services include excise duties and similar charges (e.g. truck toll, oil storage contribution), but exclude turnover tax. The prices should refer to contracts valid on the reference day or to monthly or quarterly averages. For some economic branches, the prices which, based on a sound knowledge of the market, could have been realised on the reference day can also be reported. The survey programme also includes a 3

4 detailed description of the services and other factors which have a price-forming effect (e.g. level of qualification of the service providers, description of the model case, scope of services). 2.2 Purpose of the statistics The service prices collected are used for the calculation of producer price indices which serve the following three main purposes: They are used as an inflation standard to measure price stability in the national economy (together with other price indices). As a compensation measure, they are designed for the adjustment of regular payments based on stable-value clauses in contracts. Also, they are used for the deflation of nominal economic values. 2.3 Major users of the statistics In accordance with the major purposes of the statistics, the main groups of users are the following: An inflation standard is of interest to federal ministries, central banks, economic research institutes, economic departments of big enterprises (e.g. commercial banks), science and research institutes, and the media. As a compensation measure, the index is used for contract adjustments by the contracting parties (stable-value clauses). In national accounting, for instance, the producer price indices for transport and logistics services are used as a basis for deflating economic aggregates. 2.4 User involvement The main users are involved in the pilot phase for the development of new price indices and in processes of changing over to a new base year in producer price statistics (usually every five years). In this context, many users, in particular interested trade associations, chambers and enterprises, are engaged in developing and updating the major calculation and data collection bases. Above all, these include the basket to be used (range of services for which prices are to be collected at regular intervals), the weighting pattern (weighting of the individual basket items) and the survey documents and programme of publications. In the context of the quarterly index calculations, too, there are manifold contacts with users, especially in analysing the causes of current price trends. 3 Survey methodology 3.1 Type of data collection Typically, the data are collected in written form. In some cases, price systems or price lists are used, too, or information on prices is retrieved from databases. Response to the survey is compulsory. The parties responsible for providing information comprise the owners or managers of enterprises, and the self-employed persons and freelancers. In the case of air freight, price information of the IATA CargoIS database is used. So it is possible here in part to do without a survey. 3.2 Sampling procedure Sampling design The universe of the statistics of producer prices for transport and logistics services comprises services which are requested from domestic (in the case of air freight also foreign) enterprises, self-employed persons or freelancers in the relevant branches of economic activity laid down in Regulation No 1165/98 of the European Parliament and of the Council. The enterprises responsible for providing information are selected based on stratified random sampling. All the enterprises whose turnover is above a certain sector-specific threshold are included in the sample, while enterprises with small turnover are not covered by the survey. As a first step, representative enterprises are selected from the business register by evaluating the annual turnover figures obtained in the context of the structural survey of services statistics for the WZ four-digit/five-digit level of representation. As a second step, these enterprises are asked to indicate their services and turnover, which are then arranged in a basket of services. In sectors where valid data can be obtained from other data sources for weighting and setting up the basket of services, asking the enterprises for turnover data can be reduced or abandoned. As a third step, the enterprises selected - in co-ordination with the Federal Statistical Office and based on specified criteria - determine representative services of the given basket items for which prices are to be reported. The relevant services must both be suited for price observation over time (identical products over a given period of time) and represent the cases which occur most frequently in the basket item concerned. Where technical or economic market changes occur, the successor services of the services reported previously are included, taking account of quality changes. 4

5 3.2.2 Sample size, sampling fraction and sampling unit The basket of services used for the statistics of producer prices for transport and logistics services currently comprises 266 items, for which prices are collected quarterly for a total of about 6176 representatively selected services (price representatives) in about 1010 enterprises. WZ headings for which producer price indices for transport and logistics services are calculated currently: NACE Designation Items/ Enterprises/ Price rev 2 service types self-employed persons representatives 4920 Freight rail transport Freight transport by road Sea and coastal water transport Freight air transport*) 6 8**) Storage and warehousing Cargo handling Courier act. & other nation. post activities Total *) This is not a producer price index because foreign airlines are included. In the publications, the term price index for air freight is used. **) For eight airlines, data are explicitly obtained from the IATA CargoIS database. All other airlines are represented through a common item combining the rest of the market Sample stratification In the context of the method of random sampling described above (see 3.2.2), the basic statistical material generally is explicitly stratified according to turnover size classes of the enterprises included in the survey. Exceptions are oligopolistic markets and markets with low importance in terms of turnover Expansion An expansion is not made. The result is a weighted average of the price trends observed for the services covered. 3.3 Seasonal adjustment procedure None. 3.4 Data collection tools and reporting channel The Federal Statistical Office collects the data in written form or via the internet (IDEV). Furthermore, staff of the Federal Statistical Office obtain additional data from generally accessible sources (internet, price lists and systems, schedules of fees). It is a centralised survey. For the price index for air freight, data from the CargoIS database of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are acquired. 3.5 Burden on the respondents The composition of the sample of reporting units is checked at regular intervals. 3.6 Documentation of the questionnaire The questionnaires used to compile producer price indices for transport and logistics services are available on request. 4 Accuracy 4.1 Overall qualitative assessment of accuracy The producer price index is calculated as an index number with one decimal place. The figures are final for the reference month. An indirect assessment of accuracy can be made based on the revision differences as, at the time of revision, the results are recalculated for a backward period of about three years. For this purpose, however, the revision differences must be analysed in greater detail and attributed to different causes (including methodological changes such as an extension of coverage). The results are published in the Wirtschaft und Statistik periodical (see item 8). 4.2 Sampling errors In most cases, a quantification of sampling errors is not possible as the sample is based on a multi-stage procedure (by enterprises and selected products) and, in general, a sample-related error calculation is impossible at the product level. However, the method of stratified sampling used in drawing the sample allows achieving a high degree of representativity Standard error None. 5

6 4.2.2 Biases due to the data expansion procedure None, because an expansion procedure is not applied. 4.3 Non-sampling errors Errors due to coverage None Unit non-response In cases of non-response (e.g. because of shutting down or restructuring an enterprise, etc.), the prices are extrapolated with suitable updating indicators (e.g. average price trend of the relevant item or of a higher aggregate). At the same time, attempts are made to rapidly obtain other reporting units for replacement Item non-response Usually, incorrect or imprecise information in the service description is improved without delay for the same reference month. During the process of entering the data and performing associated plausibility checks at the Federal Statistical Office, the staff involved contact the enterprises, self-employed persons or freelancers concerned to enquire about the details and correct the errors. The plausibility checks are mainly aimed at checking the price trend concerned and the relevant service description rather than the price level Imputation methods See Where the quality of an individual service changes, quality adjustment is performed to measure the genuine price change More detailed analyses of the systematic error More detailed analyses of the systematic error are not made. 4.4 Continuous revisions If fundamental changes are observed in the market conditions, revisions of this kind are made even in between the usual dates of revision. An example of such special revisions is the abolishment or modification of binding price systems Extent of revision At five-year intervals, price statistics are typically subjected to a basic revision. In this context, modified weights resulting from changes in the demand pattern will be included in the index calculation. At the time of revision, methodological changes, for instance, due to new EU requirements will be incorporated into the index compilation, too Reasons for revision Stipulations in EU regulations. 4.5 Extraordinary sources of error Extraordinary sources of error include unexpected circumstances which affect considerably the use of preliminary or final results and therefore have to be pointed out in a special form. Such phenomena comprise, for instance, particularly important reports which are inaccurate or delayed and (natural) phenomena which lead to a strong modification of the survey object directly after the survey so that the informative value of the statistics is deteriorated. Such circumstances were not observed in this case. 5 Timeliness and punctuality 5.1 Timeliness of preliminary results Regarding the producer price indices for transport and logistics services, preliminary results are not calculated. 5.2 Timeliness of final results The results are published not later than 90 days after the end of the reference quarter. 5.3 Punctuality All publication deadlines are met. 6 Comparability over time and space 6.1 Qualitative assessment of comparability The Laspeyres concept applied in the statistics of producer prices for transport and logistics services is based on the principle of all calculation bases being constant (basket of services, sample of reporting units, sample of price representatives, weighting pattern), which in theory ensures the comparability over time of the calculated indices within a base period. In practice, however, that principle cannot be fully implemented. Especially in the composition of the sample 6

7 of reporting units, changes are required because of repeated non-response, which impairs comparability in the narrow sense. Adjustments in the description of price representatives that may become necessary over time are assessed by means of suitable quality adjustment methods. This means that price changes resulting from quality changes are eliminated from price development. Quality adjustment procedures that are frequently used comprise the so-called matched model approach, the comparison of the prices of the old and the new quality in the overlapping period, option price methods, and expert assessments of quality changes. The calculation bases mentioned are kept constant over a base period, which is generally five years. Price indices for different base periods are often chain-linked to form long-term index series, although - strictly speaking - they are not comparable. The price trend shown in this way includes "non-genuine price changes", i.e. price changes resulting, for instance, from different weighting structures in the base periods. A particular problem regarding comparability between different base periods is changes in the underlying classifications. Producer price indices are only calculated for Germany as a whole. Hence, regional comparisons between individual Länder are not possible. However, the above-described comparability problems are irrelevant for the main goal of producer price statistics, which is measuring short-term to medium-term inflationary trends. 6.2 Changes affecting comparability over time Change-over from the NACE rev. 1.1 to NACE rev. 2 and from the WZ 2003 to WZ 2008 classifications of economic activities. In practical terms, the change-over has had only a slight effect on the results by branches of economic activity. Introduction of new weighting patterns (adjustment to changes in the services offered and requested), implementation of new methods. Changes of the above types are put into practice exclusively in the context of major revisions at five-year intervals. However, changes in basic market conditions such as abolishing the letter-mail monopoly are continuously taken into account. 7 Connection with other surveys 7.1 Input for other statistics The producer price index for transport and logistics services is used as a deflator for nominal values, e.g., in national accounts (cf. 2.2, 2.3). 7.2 Differences regarding other comparable statistics or results Other producer price indices for the service sector that are based on a similar methodology are compiled for business services (EVAS No ). The producer price indices for transport and logistics services are a component of the German system of price statistics which reflects price trends at all major stages in the economic process. At the stage of production, producer price indices for industrial products, price indices for products of agriculture and forestry, and construction price indices are compiled in addition to the producer price indices for services. At the distribution stage, the system of price statistics contains indices of wholesale prices and of retail prices. The stage of final consumption of households is covered by consumer price indices. Price trends in transactions with foreign markets are shown by import and export price indices. Also, various consumer price indices are published for services (EVAS No ). Unlike the producer price index, the calculation of a consumer price index covers value-added tax, too. Consumer price indices are exclusively compiled at the level of final consumption of households. While for consumer price indices only the prices to be paid by final consumers as customers are included (business to consumer concept), the producer price index covers all customers, that is including enterprises, exports and government agencies (business to all concept). Information on the other indices is contained in the relevant quality reports. 8 Other information sources 8.1 Publication channels, order address The results of the statistics of producer prices for services are offered in an electronic form only. At > Publikationen Thematische Veröffentlichungen Preise, Fachserie 17, Reihe 9.1 and 9.2 can be obtained free of charge as an Excel and/or a PDF file. Through the database system GENESIS-Online ( > Zahlen & Fakten > Datenbanken > Genesis-Online > 61 > 613 > > Tabellen), detailed results of the producer price indices for transport and logistics services can directly be loaded in various file formats (.xls,.html and.csv). 7

8 8.2 Contact information Federal Statistical Office Gustav-Stresemann-Ring Wiesbaden Germany tel: +49 (0) 611 / fax: +49 (0) (keyword: Dienstleistungspreise) Contacts at Federal Statistical Office: Freight rail transport, cargo handling, freight transport by road, storage and warehousing: Joachim Gröner tel. +49 (0) 611 / Sea and coastal water transport, freight air transport: Andreas Martin tel. +49 (0) 611 / Further publications Papers on the statistics of producer prices for services are contained in the cross-section publication Wirtschaft und Statistik ( > Publikationen > Wirtschaft und Statistik), e.g.: Peter Roemer et al.: Entwicklung von Erzeugerpreisindizes für Dienstleistungen, 12/2005, pp Peter Roemer et al.: Neue Erzeugerpreisindizes für Nachrichtenübemittlung, 8/2008, pp Bernhard Goldhammer: Die neuen Erzeugerpreisindizes für Güterverkehr und Logistik, 11/2007, pp Partly comparable methodology: Handbuch zur Methodik Index der Erzeugerpreise gewerblicher Produkte (Inlandsabsatz) at www. destatis.de International literature: OECD/Eurostat 2005 edition: Methodological guide for developing price indices for services, ISSN , ISBN Further information on the statistics of producer prices for services can be found at > Facts & Figures > Prices. 8