The Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual Target 2013

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1 The Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual Target 2013 Report laid in The Scottish Parliament in accordance with Section 33 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (SG2015/192) October 2015

2 Contents Summary Introduction Part 1 Annual target for 2013 Part 2 Net Scottish emissions Part 3 Net Scottish Emissions Account (NSEA) for 2013 Part 4 Scottish electricity consumption and generation for 2013 Annex A - Methodology (electricity generation) 2

3 Summary This is the fourth report on the Scottish greenhouse gas emissions annual target required under Section 33 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act It sets out whether the annual target for 2013 has been met and if not, why not. It also states whether or not the domestic effort target in the target year was met. Net Scottish Emissions (net source emissions) In 2013, net Scottish emissions of the basket of seven greenhouse gases are estimated to have been 52,961,210 tco 2 e. This was 3.6 per cent lower than the 2012 figure of 54,939,556 tco 2 e, or a 1,978,345 tco 2 e decrease. Between 1990 and 2013, there was a 34.3 per cent reduction in actual, or source emissions before adjustment for trading in the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). This percentage decrease is greater than the average reduction for the UK as a whole (27.4 per cent) on a directly comparable basis. The Net Scottish Emissions Account (NSEA) Achievement of Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions targets is measured against the level of the Net Scottish Emissions Account (NSEA). This accounts for the greenhouse gas emissions from sources in Scotland, Scotland's share of emissions from international aviation and international shipping, the effect of any relevant emissions removals (e.g. "carbon sinks" such as woodland) and the effect of the sale and purchase of relevant carbon units (tradable emissions allowances). In 2013, the NSEA figure, after adjustment for EU ETS allowances, was 49,724,807 tco 2 e. This means that the statutory 2013 target, as expressed under the terms of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 47,976,000 tco 2 e in 2013 was missed by 1,748,807 tco 2 e. Scotland's emissions, when adjusted to take emissions trading into account, fell by 14.0 per cent in 2013 on the previous year. The longer term trend to date shows a substantial emissions reduction of 38.4 per cent from the 1990 baseline (1995 for the F-gases). This compares with a 31.7 per cent reduction assumed when the 2013 target was set based on the greenhouse gas inventory. This percentage reduction demonstrates that the Scottish Government is more than three quarters of the way to achieving its Climate Change Act target of reducing emissions by 42 per cent by The annual target was missed, due to the impact of successive revisions to the data. Changes in net source emissions between 2012 and 2013 Between 2012 and 2013, there were decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in most sectors. There was a 1.5 MtCO 2 e (8.4 per cent) decrease in emissions from the energy supply sector and a 0.5 MtCO 2 e (15.7 per cent) reduction in emissions from the waste management sector. There was a 0.1 MtCO 2 e (1.1 per cent) decrease in net emissions from the agriculture and related land use sector and a 0.1 3

4 MtCO 2 e (0.8 per cent) decrease in emissions from transport (excluding international aviation and shipping). There was little change in emissions in a number of sectors between 2012 and These include the residential sector (0.0 per cent change), development (0.7 per cent decrease), and public sector buildings (0.3 per cent increase). In addition, there was no change in the size of the net carbon sink from forestry, which remained at MtCO 2 e (a 0.1 per cent increase in carbon sequestered). Although overall there was no change in emissions from international aviation and shipping collectively, between 2012 and 2013, there was a 3.9 per cent increase in emissions from international aviation and a 2.8 per cent decrease in international shipping emissions. There was a 0.2 MtCO 2 e (2.6 per cent) increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the business and industrial process sector between 2012 and Revisions to the greenhouse gas inventory Key factors influencing the 2013 emissions figures also include revisions to the historic greenhouse gas emissions data, as a result of new data and latest changes in methodology, which further increased emissions in By this summer s data release the baseline emissions had been revised up by 10.6 MtCO 2 e (15.1 per cent) compared to the data available when the annual targets were first set. These revisions will apply to future years as well. Every year, the greenhouse gas inventories are updated to reflect improvements in the underpinning science, data and modelling, often resulting in revisions to the entire time series. Some of the changes for the inventory are already known, and it is anticipated that these are likely to increase Scotland s emissions further. This is likely to make forthcoming annual targets even more difficult to achieve, because, while the baseline emissions have been revised upwards, the statutory annual greenhouse gas emissions targets remain unmoved as they are based on the Greenhouse Gas Inventory data. Chart 1 shows the impact of revisions to the 1990 Baseline in successive inventories. This demonstrates that the Baseline value has increased by 10.6 MtCO 2 e (15.1 per cent) since the inventory on which the fixed annual Climate Change targets (expressed in tonnes of CO 2 equivalents) were set an average yearly increase of 2.1 MtCO 2 e. 4

5 Chart 1. Revisions to the Baseline, from the Inventory, to the Latest Inventory. Impact of Successive Revisions. Values in MtCO 2 e The cumulative effect of revisions since the inventory is an increase of 10.6 MtCO 2 e to emissions in the Baseline Period, which represents a 15.1% increase Net source emissions for each of the Annual Target Years from 2010 to 2012 have been revised upwards in successive inventories. Net source emissions in 2010 have been revised upwards from 55.7 MtCO 2 e in the inventory to 61.5 MtCO 2 e in the latest ( ) inventory. This represents a cumulative increase of 5.8 MtCO 2 e, which has occurred over 3 successive inventories. Net source emissions in 2011 have been revised upwards from 51.3 MtCO 2 e in the inventory to 54.8 MtCO 2 e in the latest ( ) inventory. This represents a cumulative increase of 3.6 MtCO 2 e, which has occurred over 2 successive inventories. Net source emissions in 2012 have been revised upwards from 52.9 MtCO 2 e in the inventory to 54.9 MtCO 2 e in the inventory. This represents an increase of 2.0 MtCO 2 e. 5

6 The NSEA for each of the Annual Target Years from 2010 to 2012 have been revised upwards in successive inventories. The NSEA for 2010 has been revised upwards from 54.7 MtCO 2 e in the inventory to 60.5 MtCO 2 e in the latest ( ) inventory. This represents a cumulative increase of 5.8 MtCO 2 e, which has occurred over 3 successive inventories. The NSEA for 2011 has been revised upwards from 54.3 MtCO 2 e in the inventory to 57.8 MtCO 2 e in the latest ( ) inventory. This represents a cumulative increase of 3.6 MtCO 2 e, which has occurred over 2 successive inventories. The NSEA for 2012 has been revised upwards from 55.7 MtCO 2 e in the inventory to 57.8 MtCO 2 e in the inventory. This represents an increase of 2.1 MtCO 2 e. Annual fluctuations in emissions are to be expected, however the longer term trend shows emissions are reducing in Scotland. Chart 2 shows that the actual percentage decrease to the NSEA from the revised 1990 baseline is 38.4 per cent. This compares with an expectation of a 31.7 per cent reduction by 2013 when the target was originally set. Chart 2. Comparison of the NSEA, which is based on the inventory and the Fixed Annual Targets which are based on the inventory. Values in MtCO 2 e INVENTORY NET SCOTTISH EMISSIONS ACCOUNTS FOR 2010, 2011, 2012 AND INVENTORY Using the inventory, adjusted emissions fell by 38.4% between the Baseline and The fixed annual Climate Change Targets are based on the inventory. The Inventory has been revised upwards since then. This means that the percentage reduction from the Baseline that was required to meet the fixed annual target (as measured in tonnes) for 2013 has increased, retrospectively, from 31.7% using the inventory to 40.6% when calculated using the inventory. FIXED ANNUAL TARGETS FOR 2010, 2011, 2012 AND

7 Introduction The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, the Act, set targets to reduce Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions by 80% below the 1990 baseline 1 in 2050, with an interim target to reduce emissions by at least 42% by The percentage targets are based on a percentage reduction from the 1990 baseline in the latest inventory. Unlike the approach taken by the UK, which uses 5 year carbon budgets, Scotland s targets are not only measured against emissions from sources in Scotland, but also include an estimate of Scotland's share of emissions from international aviation and shipping 2. The Act also requires Scottish Ministers to set annual targets for Scotland s greenhouse gas emissions at least 12 years in advance. In October 2010 the Scottish Parliament passed legislation introducing the first batch of annual targets, for the years 2010 to and these were set based upon data published under the 2008 Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Targets for were set in October , and will continue to be set at 5-year intervals. The fixed annual targets were set on the basis of the inventory, which was the latest inventory available at the time. 1 The basket of greenhouse gases comprises carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2O), for which the baseline is 1990; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6), and nitrogen trifluoride (NF 3), for which the baseline is The Climate Change (International Aviation and Shipping) (Scotland) Order 2010, SSI 2010 no. 218: The Act requires Ministers to apply a "multiplier" to aviation emissions to take into account the fact that emissions at high altitude are thought to have a bigger impact on the climate. The Committee on Climate Change recommended that this multiplier is set to a neutral value until more conclusive evidence is available to show what the multiplier should be, and Scottish Ministers took this advice when setting secondary legislation. Ministers will introduce new legislation when more evidence becomes available. 3 The Climate Change (Annual Targets) (Scotland) Order 2010, SSI 2010 no. 359: 4 The Climate Change (Annual Targets) (Scotland) Order 2011, SSI 2011 no. 353: 7

8 Table 1: Annual Targets for the period Year Targets (in tco 2 e) Percentage reduction against 1990 baseline when targets were set - using the inventory Percentage reduction against 1990 baseline based on latest ( inventory) ,652, % -33.6% ,404, % -33.9% ,226, % -34.1% ,976, % -40.6% ,958, % -41.9% ,928, % -43.1% ,933, % -44.4% ,946, % -45.6% ,966, % -46.8% ,976, % -48.0% 2020 (year of interim target) 40,717, % -49.6% ,495, % -51.1% ,310, % -52.6% ,161, % -54.0% ,787, % -55.7% ,117, % -57.8% ,446, % -59.8% ,777, % -61.9% This is an approach enshrined in the Climate Change (Scotland) 2009 Act, the terms of which do not allow for any scope to adjust targets in line with baseline revisions arising from an updated and more accurate greenhouse gas inventory. The table above shows that the percentage reductions required to reach the fixed annual targets are much greater than those initially anticipated at the time when the fixed targets were set. This means that the percentage reduction targets and fixed annual targets are now inconsistent. The latest published Scotland greenhouse gas inventory (currently ) represents the best available data at the time and these supersede any previous data, which should be disregarded. 8

9 Reports on annual targets Section 33 of the Act requires that Scottish Ministers lay before the Scottish Parliament a report in respect of each year in the period for which an annual target has been set. Reports on annual targets for greenhouse gas emissions must be laid before the Parliament no later than 31 October in the second year after the target year. The report must state: Whether the annual target for the target year has been met. If the annual target has not been met, the report must explain why. Whether the domestic effort target has been met in the target year to which the report relates. If the domestic effort target has not been met, the report must explain why. The report must contain the information mentioned in section 34 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act , including Scottish electricity consumption and generation. Section 38 of the Act is also reported on for the purposes of this report. Structure of the report on the annual target This report contains four sections: Part 1: Annual target for Part 2: Net Scottish emissions. Part 3: Net Scottish Emissions Account (NSEA) for Part 4: Scottish electricity consumption and generation for Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009: 9

10 Part 1 Annual target for 2013 The annual target for 2013 was not met. Achievement of Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions annual targets is measured against the level of the NSEA. As mentioned in the summary, the NSEA accounts for the greenhouse gas emissions from sources in Scotland, Scotland's share of emissions from international aviation and international shipping, the effect of any relevant emissions sequestration (e.g. "carbon sinks" such as woodland) and the effect of the sale and purchase of relevant carbon units (tradable emissions allowances). Table 2: Margin between the annual emissions target and the net Scottish Emissions Account (NSEA) in 2013 (tco 2 e) Annual target (A) 47,976,000 Net Scottish Emissions Account (B) 49,724,807 Margin by which target is met (+) or missed (-) (A B) -1,748,807 Scotland s 2013 annual target has been missed because of successive revisions to the Scottish greenhouse gas inventory since the time at which the Climate Change targets were set. Scottish greenhouse gas emissions are reviewed every year, and the whole historical data series is revised to incorporate methodological improvements and new data. As a result, both the Net Scottish Emissions and the Net Scottish Emissions Account for each Target Year are revised every year. Chart 3 shows the impact of successive revisions to the inventory on the Net Scottish Emissions Accounts for the Target Years 2010, 2011 and

11 Chart 3. Impact of successive revisions of the inventory in , , and on the NSEA reported for the Baseline, 2010, 2011, 2012 and Values in MtCO 2 e Baseline Reasons for revisions Part 2 of this report provides a more detailed explanation of the reasons for revisions to the Scottish greenhouse gas inventory. Below are some general comments, which apply to both the Scottish and the UK inventories. The UK inventory is assembled using international guidelines that require countries to keep it under review and take account of amongst other things: o New data and revisions to data; o International developments in inventory methods; o The need for the inventory to take account of policy needs as they evolve; o Results of research. All of the revisions to the inventory were for one of the reasons above. The Scottish inventory is a subset of the UK inventory. In addition to revisions to the UK inventory, allocation of emissions to the devolved administrations is also affected by new input data and revised and improved methodologies. 11

12 Part 2 Net Scottish emissions This section of the report contains the following information 6. Greenhouse gas emissions in the latest target year, the previous target year and the Baseline Year. the change in emissions between the target year (2013) and the preceding year (2012), by greenhouse gas. the methods used in the compilation of the Scottish greenhouse gas inventory. the reasons for revisions in the latest inventory by source sector. the revisions to target years for previous inventories. Net Scottish emissions including international aviation and shipping are shown in Table 3. Table 3: Net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases (tco 2 e) Baseline Year 7 Target Year 2012 Target Year 2013 Change from previous target year 8 Aggregate net greenhouse gas emissions 80,786,164 54,939,556 52,961,210-1,978,345 Table 4 provides data for each of the seven greenhouse gases covered by the Climate Change (Scotland) Act As required by the Act, this includes details of: The amount for 2013 of net Scottish emissions, of each gas; and, Whether any of those amounts represent an increase or decrease compared to the equivalent amount for the previous year. 6 The content of this section of the report satisfies Sections 34(1), 34(2), 34(6), 34(7) and 34(8) of the Act. 7 The basket of greenhouse gases comprises carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2O), for which the baseline is 1990; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF 3) for which the baseline is is the first target year. 12

13 Table 4: Net Scottish emissions for each greenhouse gas (tco 2 e) Greenhouse gas Base year Net base year emissions Net Scottish emissions 2012 Net Scottish emissions 2013 Change in net Scottish emissions Carbon dioxide CO 2 57,490,772 40,821,446 39,391,631-1,429,815 Methane CH ,634,621 8,483,851 7,869, ,947 4 Nitrous oxide N 2 O Hydrofluorocarbons HFCs Perfluorocarbons PFCs 5,345,103 4,188,150 4,239, , ,370 1,322,707 1,324,755 +2, ,777 85,357 98, ,191 Sulphur 1995 hexafluoride 36,021 37,814 36,322-1,493 SF 6 Nitrogen trifluoride NF TOTAL 10 80,786,164 54,939,556 52,961,210-1,978,345 Further detail on the 2013 greenhouse gas emissions can be found in the Scottish Government Official Statistics publication: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions The Climate Change (Additional Greenhouse Gas) (Scotland) Order 2015 legislates for nitrogen trifluoride (NF 3) to be added to the basket of gases in Scotland s greenhouse gas inventory, as prescribed in IPCC s 4th Assessment Report: Details of the legislation can be found at: 10 Figures may not sum due to rounding

14 Methodology Greenhouse gas emissions estimates are provided by Aether and Ricardo-AEA under contract to the Department of Energy and Climate Change, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government and the Northern Ireland Department of Environment. Reports are published on the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) website 12 and the latest figures for Scotland are published in Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: and the Official Statistics publication Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions, The basket of greenhouse gases consists of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the four F-gases (hydrofluorocarbons - HFCs, perfluorocarbons - PFCs and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF 3 ), all of which are weighted by global warming potential (GWP). The GWP for each gas is defined as its warming influence relative to that of carbon dioxide, as specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Greenhouse gas emissions are then presented in carbon dioxide equivalent units. The emissions reported are the combination of emissions minus removals from the atmosphere by carbon sinks 15. Carbon sinks are incorporated within the three sectors of agriculture and related land use, development, and forestry, which include emissions as well as removals resulting from afforestation, reforestation, deforestation and forest management together with changes between grassland, cropland and settlements. The total emissions reported here include emissions resulting from international aviation and shipping. The Scottish Government also reports on International Aviation and Shipping emissions attributed to Scotland, along with other Transport emissions. International Aviation and Shipping emissions are categorised as an IPCC international "Memo" item. Compilation of the Greenhouse Gas Inventory The greenhouse gas inventory covers a wide variety of all anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gas emissions and therefore a wide variety of emissions sources which require different approaches to their estimation. There are a large number of data sources used in its compilation, obtained from Government statistics, regulatory agencies, trade associations, individual companies, surveys and censuses. The methods used to compile the greenhouse gas inventory are consistent with international guidance on national inventory reporting from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Carbon sinks are defined by the UNFCCC as 'any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere'. 14

15 Most emission estimates are compiled by combining activity data (such as fuel use) with a suitable emission factor (such as amount of CO 2 emitted per unit of fuel used). Estimates of emissions from the industrial sector are often compiled based on plantspecific emissions data. Emissions from some sectors are based on more complicated models - such as the model used to estimate emissions from landfill, and the model used to estimate the carbon dynamics in soils when trees are planted. Much of the data on net emissions from agriculture and related land use, land use change and forestry emissions are based on modelled data for Scotland, which are consistent with, but not constrained to, the UK totals and thus are known as "bottom up" estimates. Many of the remaining emissions sources within the inventory have been collated on a "top down" approach where estimates of emissions have been apportioned to Scotland using proportions of energy use in the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) publication "Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES)". This approach is prompted by data availability on emissions being more limited at the sub-uk level. Revisions to the Inventory for Baseline and Previous Target Years Scottish greenhouse gas emissions are reviewed every year, and the historical data series revised to incorporate methodological improvements and new data. It is therefore not appropriate to compare the inventory from one year with that from another - the latest inventory represents a single consistent data series going back to 1990 (excluding and ). Revisions for the inventory A discussion of revisions to the greenhouse gas inventory for is presented below. These have been taken from Section D of the Official Statistics release Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions The Scottish Government paper Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Key Revisions Since contains a summary of the impacts of revisions from the time at which the targets are set ( ). Details of Main Revisions A complete list of the revisions between the previous and latest inventories can be found in the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory report Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: Details of the most notable revisions are listed below: 16 Emissions data were estimated in 1990 and 1995 and full Scottish data only exists from 1998 onwards

16 1. Implementation of IPCC (2006) Guidelines The UK and the Scottish greenhouse gas inventories are required to comply with reporting guidelines as prescribed by the IPCC. These guidelines have been updated for this year s release to reflect the details published in the IPCC s 4th Assessment Report 20. The latest set of guidelines are known as the IPCC (2006) guidelines. These have been agreed internationally and replace the previous guidelines, which were referred to as the IPCC (1996) guidelines. The adoption of the IPCC (2006) guidelines has led to a number of revisions, as detailed below: Revised Global Warming Potentials of greenhouse gases The global warming potentials (GWPs) used for each gas have been updated to those published in the IPCC s 4th Assessment Report. Table 5 shows the revised GWPs as used in the inventory, compared with those used in the inventory. The impact of the GWP changes has been greatest on the agriculture and related land use and on the waste management sectors. Table 5. Comparison of global warming potentials (GWP) of greenhouse gases, and inventories Name of Greenhouse Gas Chemical Formula Carbon dioxide CO Methane CH Nitrous oxide N 2 O F-gases - Hydrofluorocarbons HFC , ,800 - Perfluorocarbons PFC 6,500-9,200 7,390-17,340 - Sulphur hexafluoride SF 6 23,900 22,800 - Nitrogen trifluoride NF 3 Not included 17, IPCC s 4th Assessment Report: 16

17 New data sources and methodologies New sources include the use of nitrous oxide in anaesthesia and emissions from composting. Some existing sources have also been updated with new methodologies, such as in the emissions of F-gases in the Business and Industrial Process sector. New greenhouse gas A new F-gas, nitrogen trifluoride (NF 3 ) has been included in the inventory for the first time. This gas is only emitted in tiny amounts in Scotland and is emitted in the semiconductor industry. 2. Waste Management Impact of IPCC (2006) guidelines The majority of greenhouse gas emissions in the Waste Management sector are of methane. Changing the global warming potential of methane from 21 to 25 has resulted in emissions in the Baseline Period for this sector being revised upwards by around 1.2 MtCO 2 e and 2012 emissions being revised upwards by around 0.5 MtCO 2 e in There have also been new requirements under the IPCC (2006) guidelines to report on new sources for this first time such as emissions from composting. Landfill gas data New information has been used for this publication from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency on the volumes of landfill gas flared and recovered at landfill sites; previously these volumes had been estimated. This has led to a downwards revision to emissions in recent years. Waste decay data New research from Defra has shown that the rate at which degradable waste is estimated to decay over time in landfill is slightly higher than previously thought. This increases methane emissions in the early part of the time series and decreases them after Other changes There have been further, more minor updates to emissions in this sector. These include: Changes to assumptions of gas combustion engine efficiency. New data on waste composition. Revisions to estimates of industrial and domestic waste water treatment methods (to be consistent with IPCC (2006) guidelines). New emissions from private sewage treatment works. 17

18 3. Agriculture and Related Land Use Impact of IPCC (2006) guidelines A considerable proportion of net greenhouse gas emissions in the Agriculture and Related Land Use sector are of methane and nitrous oxide. Changing the global warming potential of methane from 21 to 25 and changing that of nitrous oxide from 310 to 298 has resulted in emissions in the Baseline Period for this sector being revised upwards by around 0.6 MtCO 2 e and the 2012 emissions being revised upwards by around 0.5 MtCO 2 e. Adopting the IPCC (2006) guidelines has also meant that there have been changes to the assumptions for the emissions from animal digestion (enteric fermentation), which have increased emissions across the series. Implementing the IPCC (2006) guidelines has also meant that emissions for agricultural soils have been revised downwards, but not to the same extent as the upwards revisions in other parts of the Agricultural and Related Land Use source sector. This downward revision has been due to changes in emissions factors for agricultural soils. There have also been changes to assumptions regarding the greenhouse gas emissions from manure management practices in farms, which results in a small drop in emissions across the time series. Drainage of Cropland and Grassland DEFRA have published revised UK land areas of cropland and improved grassland on organic soils which have been drained for agricultural purposes. UNFCCC reviewers have requested for this information to be included in the inventory and they only relate to the drainage of these land use types. This has resulted in an increase in around 1.17 MtCO 2 e across the time series and they particularly affect the size of carbon sink from grasslands. Cattle Weights New research from DEFRA has resulted in updated estimates of the average weights of dairy cattle and beef cattle. This has led to further upwards revisions to enteric fermentation emissions by cattle across the time series. 18

19 Revisions to Net Scottish Emissions for earlier target years Revisions to previously reported estimates of the Net Scottish Emissions for earlier target years are detailed in Table Table 6: Revisions to net Scottish emissions for earlier target years 22 Target year Net Scottish emission estimate previously reported (tco 2 e) Revision required (tco 2 e) FOR THE INVENTORY Revised amount (tco 2 e) ,731, ,178,969 56,910,455 REASONS FOR REVISIONS. These are detailed in the Annual Target Report for and in the statistics paper Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2012 Key Revisions since FOR THE INVENTORY ,910, ,407,176 58,317, ,285, ,202,036 52,487,243 REASONS FOR REVISIONS. These are detailed in the Annual Target Report for and in the statistics paper Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2012 Key Revisions since 2008 FOR THE INVENTORY ,317, ,193,550 61,511, ,487, ,355,503 54,842, ,895, ,044,311 54,939,556 REASONS FOR REVISIONS. These are detailed in Pages 14 to 18 of this report 21 Section 34 (6) of the Act states that if the method of measuring or calculating net Scottish emissions changes and that change is such as to require adjustment of an amount for an earlier target year, the report must specify the adjustment required and state the adjusted amount. 22 Note that revisions calculations are based on unrounded data

20 Chart 4 shows the impact of successive revisions of the inventory on the reported source emissions for the Baseline, 2010, 2011 and Chart 4. Impact of successive revisions of the inventory in , , and on source emissions reported for the Baseline, 2010, 2011, 2012 and Values in MtCO 2 e Baseline Reasons for revisions to previous inventories A discussion of revisions to the greenhouse gas inventory, for successive inventories from to , by Scottish Government source sector can be found in the Scottish Government paper: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2012 Key Revisions since In addition, details of historic revisions can be found in the previous Annual Target reports for , and

21 Part 3 Net Scottish Emissions Account (NSEA) for 2013 This section of the report contains the following information 30. An explanation of how the NSEA has been calculated. The total amount of carbon units that have been debited or credited from the Net Scottish emissions account for the target year. These calculations are in line with The Carbon Accounting Scheme (Scotland) Regulations The amount of carbon units which have been purchased or held through means other than the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The cumulative amount of net Scottish emissions account for each preceding target year. Whether or not the Domestic Effort Target for 2013 has been met. The NSEA is used for reporting against Scotland s Climate Change Targets. The NSEA for a given year is calculated by taking net Scottish emissions for that year, with an adjustment made to reflect the amount of units to be credited to, and debited from, the NSEA for that year. The NSEA takes account of emissions trading through the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as well as through any other purchasing or holding of carbon units. Accounting for the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) What is the EU ETS? The EU ETS is a cap and trade system. A limit (cap) is placed on the overall volume of emissions from participants in the system. Within the cap, organisations receive or buy emissions allowances which they can trade (1 emissions allowance equals 1 tco 2 e). Each year, an organisation must surrender enough allowances to cover its emissions. The cap is reduced over time so that by 2020, the volume of emissions permitted within the system will be 21% lower than in The reducing cap, alongside the financial considerations of trading emissions allowances, incentivises organisations within the system to find the most cost effective way of reducing their emissions. The EU ETS operates as a number of Phases. Phase III of the EU ETS began on 1 January 2013 and will operate until 31 December In the greenhouse gas inventory, source emissions can be categorised into traded and non-traded. Traded emissions capture those that come from installations covered by the EU ETS, whereas non-traded emissions are those which do not fall within the scope of the EU ETS. The emissions from some sectors, such as the residential sector, are completely non-traded whereas emissions from other sectors, such as energy supply, business and industrial process emissions are a combination of traded and non-traded. For 2013, CO 2 emissions from domestic and international aviation attributed to Scotland are estimated as being within the traded sector. 30 The content of this section of the report satisfies Sections 33(3), 33(4) and 33(5) of the Act. 21

22 What does this mean for the NSEA? The EU ETS element of the NSEA is calculated taking the difference between Scotland s notional share of the overall EU ETS cap and the number of emissions allowances surrendered from Scottish installations in a given year. This amount is then added to non-traded emissions to get the NSEA. For 2013 reporting, the NSEA formula is as follows: Net Scottish Emissions Account (NSEA) Net greenhouse gas emissions, including international aviation and shipping EU ETS surrenders Scotland's share of the EU ETS cap "specified amount" For 2013 emissions, the calculation of the NSEA are known as adjusted emissions, as they are adjusted to take into account trading within the EU ETS. This adjustment takes the form of a 4-step process. For 2013, the EU ETS element of the NSEA is calculated by taking the difference between Scotland s notional share of the overall EU ETS cap and the number of emissions allowances surrendered from Scottish installations in a given year. Chart 5. Calculation of Adjusted Emissions for Trading in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), Values in MtCO 2 e STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP SOURCE EMISSIONS Traded - fixed installations and aviation, Remove EU ETS traded emissions which are surrendered for fixed installations in Scotland as well as estimate of surrendered emissions from aviation Add on EU ETS specified amount ("the cap") for Scotland - figures obtained from legislation ADJUSTED EMISSIONS Traded - fixed installations and aviation, Non-traded, Non-traded, Non-traded, Non-traded,

23 Calculation of adjusted emissions STEP 1 Take the Scottish greenhouse gas emissions from Scottish greenhouse gas inventory (for 2013, it is MtCO 2 e). This figure has been comprised of: STEP 2 traded emissions units surrendered - sourced from Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) for fixed installations ( MtCO 2 e) an imputed estimate of surrendered CO 2 emissions from domestic aviation (0.516 MtCO 2 e) and international aviation (1.115 MtCO 2 e) - sourced from the Scottish Greenhouse Gas Inventory for non-traded emissions from sources such as residential emissions ( MtCO 2 e) Remove an amount relating to surrendered emissions from fixed installations and an estimate of surrendered emissions from domestic and international aviation. This amounts to MtCO 2 e MtCO 2 e MtCO 2 e = MtCO 2 e. STEP 3 Add on the value of the EU ETS cap which is outlined within The Carbon Accounting Scheme (Scotland) Amendment Regulations The cap reflects an estimate of the Scottish share of the European wide EU ETS cap that is used for emissions accounting. For 2013, this cap was separated into 3 components, as shown in the table below. Table 7. Total EU ETS cap for Scotland, this is the specified amount for fixed installations, domestic aviation and international aviation - as outlined in The Carbon Accounting Scheme (Scotland) Amendment Regulations Component 2013 Allocation tco 2 e Fixed Installation Cap 16,325,296 Domestic Aviation Cap 443,255 International Aviation Cap 921,758 Total 2013 Cap 17,690, The Carbon Accounting Scheme (Scotland) Amendment Regulations 2015, SSI 2015 No

24 The Scottish EU ETS cap for 2013 is therefore MtCO 2 e. The Scottish Government has published a methodological paper titled Determining a Scottish EU ETS cap for , which documents the calculations that determine how a notional emissions cap has been calculated for (i) greenhouse gas emissions from fixed installations located in Scotland and (ii) Scotland's share of emissions from domestic and international aviation. STEP 4 Adding on the value of the EU ETS cap gives a value of MtCO 2 e. In 2013, the adjusted emissions which take account of trading in the EU ETS is MtCO 2 e. This is MtCO 2 e lower than the value of estimated source emissions in Table 8 sets out the effect of the EU ETS on the NSEA in 2013 Table 8: The effect of the EU ETS on the Net Scottish Emissions Account in 2013 (tco 2 e) Total amount of units surrendered by Scottish operators 34 19,296,205 Estimate of surrendered CO 2 emissions from domestic aviation Estimate of surrendered CO 2 emissions from international aviation Total estimate of surrendered emissions (A) 515,744 1,114,763 20,926,712 Total 2013 EU ETS cap ( Specified Amount ) for Scotland (B) Number of units to be credited or debited from the Net Scottish 3,236, Emissions Account (A - B) 17,690,309 credited to NSEA Sourced from SEPA analysis 35 Carbon units that are counted as credits reduce the level of the NSEA compared with source emissions. Carbon units that are counted as debits increase the level of the NSEA compared with source emissions. 36 If (A B) is positive, carbon units are credited to the NSEA, thus reducing its level. 37 If (A B) is negative, carbon units are debited from the NSEA, thus increasing its level. 24

25 Carbon units which have been purchased or held by means other than the EU Emissions Trading System in 2013 The Climate Change (Limit on Carbon Units) (Scotland) Order 2011 sets limits for the period which allows Ministers the option to purchase (credit) up to 1,050,000 carbon units in 2013 in addition to those emissions credited or debited to the Scottish account through the operation of the EU ETS 38. Table 9: Net amount of carbon units credited or debited to the net Scottish account for 2013, which have not been through the operation of the EU Emissions Trading System Number of Units Type of Units Number of carbon units purchased Number of carbon units held and not surrendered Amount of carbon units credited to the Net Scottish Emissions Account 0 Not applicable 0 Not applicable 0 Not applicable

26 Net Scottish Emissions Account 2013 As described above, the Net Scottish Emissions Account is calculated by taking net Scottish emissions, which are then adjusted to account for the amount of units to be debited from and credited to the NSEA. The information in Table 10 is taken from preceding tables in this report and provides a figure for the Net Scottish Emissions Account in Table 10: Net Scottish Emissions Account for 2013 (tco 2 e) GHG Inventory Carbon Units Net emissions reported for Scotland including international aviation and shipping see table 3 (C) Number of units to be credited to or debited from the Net Scottish Emissions Account - see table 8 (D) 52,961,210 3,236,403 credited to NSEA NSEA C - D 49,724,807 26

27 Revisions to Net Scottish Emissions Account for earlier target years Revisions to previously reported estimates of the net Scottish emissions account for earlier target years, together with the revised amount and reason for any revision, are detailed in Table 11. Table 11: Revised net Scottish emissions account for earlier target years 39 Net Scottish Revised Net Scottish Emission Account Revision Emissions Account Target year estimate previously required estimate amount reported (tco 2 e) (tco (tco 2 e) 2 e) FOR THE INVENTORY ,713, ,178,969 55,892,876 REASON FOR REVISION. This follows similar revisions to the net Scottish emissions as described in the Annual Target Report for and in the Revisions paper 41. FOR THE INVENTORY ,892,876 +1,323,177 57,216, ,251,910 +1,118,036 55,369,946 REASON FOR REVISION. This follows similar revisions to the net Scottish emissions as described in the Annual Target Report for and in the Revisions paper. FOR THE INVENTORY ,216,053 +3,277,550 60,493, ,369,946 +2,439,503 57,809, ,665,180 +2,128,311 57,793,491 REASON FOR REVISION. This follows similar revisions to the net Scottish emissions as described in Pages 14 to 18 of this report and in the Official Statistics Release Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Note that revisions calculations are based on unrounded data

28 Net Scottish Emissions Account for all target years Table 12 sets out the amount of the net Scottish emissions account for the target year and each preceding target year and the cumulative amount of the net Scottish emissions account for the target year and each preceding target year. Table 12: Amount of the Net Scottish Emissions Account for each target year and the cumulative amount of the Net Scottish Emissions Account for all target years to date (tco 2 e) Target Year ,493,603 Target Year ,809,448 Target Year ,793,491 Target Year ,724,807 Cumulative ,821,349 The Domestic Effort Target 2013 Section 8 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act places a duty on the Scottish Ministers to ensure that reductions in net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases, account for at least 80% of the reduction in the net Scottish emissions account in any target year. This limits the quantity of "carbon units" (i.e. tradable emissions allowances) that the Scottish Ministers may use to reduce the NSEA in any target year. The exception is carbon units surrendered by participants in the EU ETS (which are accounted for in line with international practice, as described above). Table 13 sets out the proportion of the change in the NSEA which is accounted for by changes in adjusted net Scottish emissions. Adjusted net Scottish emissions take account of the surrendered carbon units under the EU ETS as described above. It shows that 100% of the reduction in the NSEA is accounted for by reductions in adjusted net Scottish emissions and thus the domestic effort target has been met. 28

29 Table 13: Change in adjusted net Scottish emissions between 2012 and 2013 as a proportion of the change in the Net Scottish Emissions Account between 2012 and 2013 Change in adjusted net Scottish emissions (tco 2 e) -8,068,683 Change in Net Scottish Emissions Account (tco 2 e) -8,068,683 Proportion of the change in the Net Scottish Emissions Account which is accounted for by change in the adjusted net Scottish emissions 100% 29

30 Part 4 Scottish electricity consumption and generation for 2013 Under the terms of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 this report must state the amount of Scottish gross electricity consumption and the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland in the target year. In 2013, gross electricity consumption in Scotland was 38,256 GWh. There are various ways of estimating the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland and three methods are outlined in Annex A to this report and will be replicated where possible in future years. For the purposes of this report, using data from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency s Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory (SPRI) the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland is estimated to be 229 kgco 2 e /MWh in Table 14: Scottish electricity consumption and generation in 2013 Scottish gross electricity consumption (GWh) Scottish electricity generation (GWh) Average greenhouse gas emissions/megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland (kgco 2 e/mwh) 38,256 53, Table 15 below shows Scottish electricity generation by fuel for Table 15: Generation of electricity by fuel in Scotland (GWh) Coal 10,820 Oil 595 Gas 5,443 Nuclear 18,498 Thermal renewables 1,361 Other thermal 127 Hydro natural flow 4,366 Hydro Pumped Storage 615 Non thermal renewables 11,240 Wastes 6 Total 53, There are various ways of estimating this figure three methods are outlined in an annex to this paper. Using data from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency s Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory (SPRI) the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland is estimated to be 229 kgco2e/mwh in

31 Estimated lifetime cumulative emissions of new electricity generation capacity greater than 50MW approved in 2013 In 2013, nine projects were consented after consideration under section 36 of the Electricity Act Of these, three related to onshore wind projects (totalling 394 MW), two offshore wind projects (totalling 107 MW), two biomass projects (totalling 135 MW), one tidal project (86 MW) and one hydro pumped storage project (totalling 600 MW). Estimating the cumulative impact of consenting decisions with regard to emissions on the GB wide electricity network is a complex task. First and foremost, there is an important distinction between when a plant is consented and when, it becomes operational. This analysis assumes that all the plant consented becomes operational by In addition, the electricity system is a dynamic network, where asset owners dispatch their generation depending on a number of complex and competing factors. To provide an accurate representation of this network, a dispatch model is utilised to assess dispatch decisions and the resulting emissions that occur as a result of investment decisions. Emissions impacts are assessed at a GB level, reflecting the fact that the system is operated as a GB wide wholesale electricity market. The approach adopted assumes that all consented plant becomes operational prior to 2020, and the results specify the estimated impact on emissions in that year. Clearly, this can only provide an approximation of the actual impact, considering the influence of future consenting decisions (in Scotland and the rest of GB) and the parallel programme of transmission network upgrades, which will have a material impact on dispatch decisions. The modelling results suggest that the consented projects, should they become operational, could reduce GB system wide carbon emissions by an estimated 0.7 MtCO 2 in Impact on emissions of exercise of electricity generation related functions In 2013, nine projects were consented after consideration under section 36 of the Electricity Act 1989, with a further two projects licensed by Marine Scotland (in addition to those licensed under section 36). These additional projects were both wave devices (totalling MW). As explained above, calculating the impact of consenting decisions is a complex task. The modelling results suggest that the consented projects, should they become operational, could reduce GB system wide carbon emissions by an estimated 0.7 MtCO 2 in

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