HCC Climate Change Board Agenda Item 4 1 June Emissions Targets What this means for Hertfordshire County Council Carbon Reduction Targets

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1 HCC Climate Change Board Agenda Item 4 1 June 2009 Emissions Targets What this means for Hertfordshire County Council Carbon Reduction Targets 1. Background 1.1. In early 2008, Hertfordshire County Council s (HCC) Carbon Management Strategy set out an aspirational target to reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from County Council s property, street lighting, fleet and business mileage by at least 25% by 2013 from a 2005/06 baseline The 25% target was set in light of the following regional, national and international emission targets at that time (see table 1 below); UK Kyoto Protocol Commitment to reduce greenhouse gases by 12.5% by from a 1990 baseline UK domestic goal to cut CO 2 emissions by 20% by 2010 from a 1990 baseline UK Energy White Paper (2003) and Draft Climate Change Bill (2007) target of 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 baseline European Climate Change Programme target reduction of 20-30% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 from a 1990 baseline. Consideration of National Indicators 185 and 186 (no targets had been set at that time) 1.3. Then in November 2008, the Climate Change Act 2008 (CCA) received Royal Assent introducing the worlds first long term legally binding framework to tackle the dangers of climate change. This framework included the setting of new tougher and legally binding emission reduction targets How do the new CCA targets affect HCC emission targets, considering that we now have updated 2007/08 CO 2 emission figures for HCC? This short paper sets out the different UK emission targets and looks at whether the new tougher CCA targets impact HCC emission targets, given updated HCC emission figures. 2. Emissions Targets Climate Change Act (2008) 2.1. The key provisions on targets of the CCA are as follows: New legally binding and tougher targets for the UK to reduce Kyoto greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by at least 80% by 2050 and CO 2 emissions by at least 26% by 2020, against a 1990 baseline.

2 A Carbon Budgeting System which caps emissions over five year periods, with three budgets set at a time, to set out our trajectory to The first of these budgets are for the period The CCC has produced two sets of budgets: one if the UK reaches a global deal in Copenhagen in December 2009 to reduce emissions (intended budget) and the second for the period before a global deal is reached (interim budget). 1 If the global deal is reached, then there will be a legally binding budget to reduce CO 2 emissions by approximately 36% by 2020, from 2006 baseline The CCA targets and carbon budgets are shown in table 1 below, along with HCC, regional, national and European targets. Table 1 Key UK, EU and HCC Emission Targets UK Climate Change Programme (UKCCP) Target Emission Baseline By when UK Kyoto Protocol commitment (UKCCP) 12.5% GHG UK Domestic goal to cut CO 2 emissions (UKCCP) 20% CO Draft Climate Change Bill (2007) and 2003 Energy White Paper 60% CO European Climate Change Programme (EUCCP) Target Emission Baseline By when European Climate Change Programme (EUCCP) 20-30% GHG UK Climate Change Act (2008) Target Emission Baseline By when Climate Change Act (2008) 80% GHG Climate Change Act (2008) 77% GHG Climate Change Act (2008) & UK CCP at least 26% CO UK Climate Change Act (2008): CCC Budgets Target Emission Baseline By when CCC Intended Carbon Budget (1990 base) CO 2 only 40% CO CCC Interim Carbon Budget (1990 base) CO 2 only 29% CO CCC Intended Carbon Budget (2005 base) CO 2 only 36% CO CCC Interim Carbon Budget (2005 base) CO 2 only CO CCC Interim Carbon Budget (1990 base) CO 2 only 14% CO CCC Intended Carbon Budget (1990 base) all Kyoto GHG 42% GHG CCC Interim Carbon Budget (1990 base) all Kyoto GHG 34% GHG CCC Intended Carbon Budget (2005 base) all Kyoto GHG 31% GHG CCC Interim Carbon Budget (2005 base) all Kyoto GHG 21% GHG HCC Emission Target Target Emission Baseline By when HCC target 25% CO Hertfordshire LAA Target Target Emission Baseline By when LAA target 9.1% CO /11 3. HCC Actual Emissions 3.1. The HCC 25% CO 2 reduction target is based on 2005/06 emissions from HCC property, transport and street lighting. The 2005/06 baseline was 114,813 tonnes CO The corresponding emissions for 2007/08 have just been produced as part of a preparatory exercise for reporting on National Indicator CCC s first report Building a low carbon economy the UK s contribution to tackling climate change, Dec 2008

3 (CO 2 reduction from LA operations). Emissions figures for 2007/08 are detailed in table 2 below, alongside the 2005/06 emissions figures. Table 2 HCC CO 2 emissions by source /06 and 2007/08 CO 2 emissions (tonnes) 2005/ /2008 Property 91,478 97,709 Transport 5,193 5,985 Street Lighting 18,142 22,300 Total 114, , Emissions totals indicate a difference in CO 2 emissions of 11,181 tonnes (9.74%) between 2005/06 and 2007/08. The main reasons for this are; firstly HCC has continued to improve the quality of the energy consumption data from which CO 2 estimates are produced. Secondly and significantly, the government produced and nationally used CO 2 factors that convert energy consumption into CO 2, have increased by 21% for electricity, resulting in an increase in the amount of CO 2 emitted from HCC sources using electricity (HCC property and street lighting). This is an increase not in the control of HCC If we apply the updated conversion factors to 2005/06 consumption figures then we obtain a revised 2005/06 baseline, which is almost 10% higher than the original 2005/06 baseline. This revised baseline is comparable with the latest 2007/08 emission figures and is shown in table 3 below: Table 3 HCC CO 2 emissions by source revised 2005/06 and 2008/08 CO 2 emissions (tonnes) 2005/ /2008 Change (revised) Property , % Transport 5,193 5, % Street Lighting 22,066 22, % Total 125, , % 3.5. The comparable figures show that total emissions over 2005/06 (revised) to 2007/08 rose by just under 0.5%, with transport seeing a rise of 15.25%, and a slight decrease in property emissions of 0.5%. 4. What this means for HCC Carbon Reduction Targets Increase in HCC CO 2 emissions and CO 2 conversion factors In short, we need to revise our 2005/06 baseline to account for the increase in CO 2 conversion factors. In addition, to achieve our 25% CO 2

4 reduction target we need to be making greater CO 2 reductions from 2007/08 each year until The increase in HCC emissions from 2005/06 to 2007/08 is largely due to an increase in the government produced CO 2 conversion factors for electricity. The conversion factor for electricity use is derived from the various carbon intensities of the mix of fuels used to produce electricity during that year. For 2007/08, the national energy mix shifted towards more carbon intensive fuel sources, such as coal and other fossil fuels The significance of this is that the majority of the increase in HCC property and street lighting CO 2 emissions is not within the control of HCC. Therefore to take account of the factors out of HCC s control, we should use the revised 2005/06 emissions (shown in table 3) as the baseline for HCC s 25% CO 2 reduction target Figure 1 shows the revised 2005/06 baseline and updated 2007/08 emissions figures. It also shows the path (bold red line) that we must take from 2007/08 if HCC are to reduce emissions by 25% by 2013 from the revised 2005/06 baseline. To achieve this target, from 2007/08 we need to be reducing CO 2 emissions by approximately 5.7% per year until This can be compared with the path (dashed red line) we would have taken if we used the old 2005/06 baseline and emissions had not increased by 2007/08. On average this was a reduction of 4% per year. The increase in emissions means that we now have a steeper path to follow and need to make greater CO 2 reductions each year until 2013, if we are to achieve HCC s target. New tougher CCA targets 4.6. In short, the new tougher CCA (2008) targets do not affect the 25% CO 2 reduction target by 2013 for HCC. If the correct carbon management strategies are implemented then HCC s 25% target should still reap larger savings than the new Climate Change targets by Given this, it would be sensible for HCC to adopt a similar target. However, HCC does not have emissions data which dates back to If it were to adopt an 80% reduction by 2050, and the higher intended budget of 36% reduction by 2020, from its baseline year of 2005/06, the Authority would on average need to reduce its CO 2 emissions by an estimated 3.45% per annum Achieving HCC s 25% 2013 target (from revised 2005/06 baseline) will require the Authority to make an average saving of 5.7% per annum from 2007/08. As figure 1 below illustrates, a 25% reduction by 2013 (red line) will take the Authority s emission reduction further than if it only adopted the new CCA targets from a 2006 baseline (dark blue line) by 2013.

5 4.9. However, post 2013 it becomes apparent that continued CO 2 emissions reduction will be very much dependant upon the Authority s policy choices; as show in figure 1, if it follows the new national 80% and higher intended budget targets (green line), far less will be saved than if it continues with sustained year on year savings on average of 4% (based on reductions from old 2005/06 and emissions had not increased) as required by the 25% target (red line).

6 Figure 1: Scenarios for CO 2 emissions reduction from HCC s revised 2005/06 baseline including updated 2007/08 emissions HCC Revised 2005/06 baseline HCC old 2005/06 baseline HCC 2007/08 Statutory Target Climate Change Act Target to reduce CO 2 emissions by at least 26% by 2020 (from approximate 1990 base) HCC 25% target to revised path to include 2007/08 emissions then continued %age savings until 2050 HCC meets new CCA targets only on 2005/06 baseline from HCC 2006 baseline - revised to include 2007/08 emissions HCC takes into account past CO2 reductions to meet new CCA intended 2020 and 2050 ta only (from approximate 1990 baseline) - revised path to include 2007/08 emissions HCC takes into account past CO2 reductions and HCC 25% target by 2013 to meet new CC intended 2020 and 2050 target (from approximate 1990 baseline) M eeting the UK Domestic goal to cut CO2 emissions by 20% by 2010 (from approximate H 1990 baseline) HCC aspirational 25% CO2 reduction target by 2013 from 2006 baseline Tonnes CO Statutory Target Climate Change Act Intended budget (36% reduction by 2020 from 2006 base). Will be confirmed in Copenhagen in December Additional policy choices for further CO 2 emissions reduction HCC Emissions (including revised 2005/06 to take account of increase in electricty-co2 conversion factor) HCC Actual Emissions (2005/06) Path HCC should have taken to aspirational 25% reduction target from 2005/06 Climate Change Act (2008) Statutory Targets Statutory Target Climate Change Act targ to reduce emissions by 80% by Year

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