SME Minerals Education Sustainability Committee. Report on progress NMA Meeting, Las Vegas September 29, 2004

Transcription

1 SME Minerals Education Sustainability Committee Report on progress NMA Meeting, Las Vegas September 29, 2004

2 Mineral Education Sustainability Task Force Problem Statement - Vision - Goals Problem Statement: The availability of professionals for Mining Industry and Government is dependent upon the sustainability of mineral education programs. Vision: Promote sustainability of minerals education in North America through improved collaboration between industry, academia, and government Goals: Provide a forum for college administrators and educators to discuss longterm sustainability. Attempt to develop a forecast of the minerals engineering and economic geology graduates. Explore what the Mining Industry can do to assist the minerals education programs with recruiting and retention.

3 Mineral Education Sustainability Task Force A Steering Committee was formed to drive the effort CHAIR Rich Perry Industry: Bruce Hansen Drew Meyer Academia: Kim McCarter Jim Taranik John Trefny Government: George Bockosh Lou Wade SME: Mike Karmis Dave Kanagy Action teams were launched on the following areas: Recruiting - Leader Marc Lavier Supply & Demand of Talent - Leader Leigh Freeman Sustainability of Mining Programs - Leader Bruce Hansen

4 Mineral Education Sustainability Task Force High Level Approach Established Problem Statement, Vision & Goals Performed initial research and analysis (Facts gathering) NMA Reporting initial finding Performing more in depth research and analysis (Surveys) SME Presenting final findings and Action plan 1Q Q 04 3Q Q 04 1Q 05

5 Educational Institutions with some form of Mining/Minerals Education remaining: Colorado School of Mines University of Utah Montana Tech Virginia Tech University of Nevada, Reno University of Missouri, Rolla New Mexico Tech University of Arizona University of Kentucky Southern Illinois University University of Alaska, Fairbanks University of West Virginia South Dakota School of Mines Penn State University

6 The Elevator Speech We have a critical sustainability issue with minerals engineering education in the United States. We aren t graduating enough mining and minerals engineers, our University faculty are retiring with no replacements, and we are losing mining programs at the State Universities due to shrinking State funding.

7 A group of industry, government and academics was formed at the last annual SME meeting to propose a path forward on these issues. This group concluded that we need a minimum of 300 new Mining Engineering graduates each year, at least 10 PhD s each year to replace retiring faculty, and at least 10 sustainable mining programs in the US to maintain critical mass.

8 Given the constraints on State University budgets and the high cost of educating mining professionals, it is estimated that up to $20M per year will be needed to supplement State support for a majority of University programs to remain sustainable. These monies would go toward recruiting students, scholarships, and faculty salaries where there is no State support.

9 Not since the 1970 s have we seen such a forecasted shortfall in mining professionals due to an exodus of talent from retirements in the next 5-10 years.

10 Programs at Risk (PARs) SME - Supply and Demand Committee NMA, September 2004 Leigh W. Freeman Downing Teal

11 Committee Members Leigh Freeman Downing Teal, Industry Recruiting Lew Wade NIOSH, Federal Government George Bockosh NIOSH, Federal Government Kim McCarter Univ of Utah, Minerals Education Drew Meyer Vulcan, Construction Materials Barry Nelson Luzenac, Industrial Minerals Craig Beasley - Barrick Gold, Precious Metals John Marsden - Phelps Dodge, Base Metals Bart Hyita - Consol, Coal Dick Munday - Caterpillar, Equipment Suppliers / Services

12 Goal Products Provide a first approximation of the Supply / Demand balance of geoprofessionals educated by Programs at Risk to allow us and others to prioritize efforts to stabilize these programs Time is of the essence

13 Scope Geographic Area Comprehensive for US as an overview Reference efforts in other countries (in order of importance) Canada Other English speaking countries Particularly Australia and South Africa the UK Spanish speaking countries Particularly Chile and Peru And. The big unknowns India, China and the countries of former Soviet Union

14 Scope Education Programs at Risk (Supply) Mining Engineering Extractive Metallurgy (and Mineral Processing) Economic Geology / Geological Engineering (including Mining Geochemistry and Mining Geophysics)

15 Scope Employers (Demand) Producing companies including exploration Metals (base and precious) Coal Construction Materials (aggregates, cement) Industrial Minerals Other (non-traditional) including construction and allied industries (ie oil and gas) Suppliers, services Government (state and federal) Education

16 Methodology Overall Utilize best available information Original data when critical First approximation of the entire product an evolving document, usable as soon as possible increasing accuracy Reference (and coordinate?) parallel efforts - time lines, synopsis, role in the solution

17 Methodology Supply and Demand Components Supply (by discipline) 1. Numbers of graduates Where they come from First job by industry sector Demand (by industry sector) 2. Numbers employed 3. Growth / shrinkage 4. Demographics (Retirements) 5. Career path movement between sectors Mentoring / necessary experience 6. Attrition loss from the profession 7. Balance (numbers and time) Cycles (non-linear balance) 8. Education (faculty) Numbers by discipline Demographics (retirements)

18 Example Mining Engineers

19 Graduates BS Min Eng Percent Alaska

20 Graduates Where they come from Montana Tech , 1998, 2003 From Montana 21 58% Adjacent 10 28% Wa, Wy, BC Other 5 14% %

21 Graduates Numbers over thirty years 800 Mining Engineers N = 7, BS Mining Engineering Year

22 Graduates Compare BSPE and BSME Mining and Petroleum Graduates Number of Graduates BSPE 200 BSME

23 Graduates First Jobs - Trends First jobs - Montana Tech Precious 33% 8% 36% Coal 11% 23% 36% Services-Petroleum 23% Construction 22% Aggregates 22% 89% 54% 71%

24 Employment By Industry Sector

25 Growth Non-linear Example:U/G Construction Materials Pork Bellies -Huber Mine, Ill

26 Demographics (retirements) SME and Fed Government Similar Demographics - Retirement rate Mining Engineers - Federal Governement Assume number of Mining Engineers 5,206 Demographics Average annual retirement rate Retirement age Over 50 years 52% Over 55 years 28% Over 60 years 10%

27 Demographics Approximate Age Mining Engineers N = 7, ,600 ~ 10,500 BS Mining Engineering Age /yr Year

28 Attrition Timing University of Utah Industry loss Thirteen years Total Loss 25 30% Male 18 72% Female 7 28% Graduation date First job 1 4% Last five yrs 7 25% First job 3 8% Last ten yrs 15 39% First job 0 0% Last thirteen yrs 3 19%

29 Attrition Approximate Age- Plausible model Mining Engineers N = 7, ,600 ~ 10,500 To 5,200 BS Mining Engineering Age yrs 80% 200/yr 30% Attrition Year

30 Attrition Industry Sector Univ of Utah 13 yrs 29 students into coal 65% remain in coal sector 14% changed sectors 14% into non-mining sectors 7% no longer work in the profession 12 students into metals 8% remain in metals sector 92% changed sectors 0% left mining sector or the profession

31 Career Path Movement between sectors / attrition

32 Balance Algorithm - No Growth Scenario Total Need - net of growth / shrinkage and attrition Growth / Shrinkage over next 5 years 0% Attrition 30% Assume number of Mining Engineers 5,206 Demographics Average annual retirement rate Retirement age Over 50 years 52% Over 55 years 28% Over 60 years 10%

33 Balance Algorithm - 5% Growth Scenario Total Need - net of growth / shrinkage and attrition Growth / Shrinkage over next 5 years 5% Attrition 30% Assume number of Mining Engineers 5,206 Demographics Average annual retirement rate Retirement age Over 50 years 52% Over 55 years 28% Over 60 years 10%

34 Cycles Capital vs Grads

35 Cycles Job Visibility Mining Engineers Correlation with Gold Price BS Mining Engineering Gold Price Year

36 Cycles Job Visibility Mining Engineers Correlation with Gold Price BS Mining Engineering Gold Price Year

37 Cycles Share Price and Jobs Share Price and Graduates BSME 250 Grads 200 Percent of NEM PD Year

38 Cycles Share Price and Jobs Share Price and Graduates BSME Yrs Grads 3 Yrs Percent of NEM PD Year

39 Conclusions Mining Engineers We need three times the current number of mining engineering graduates. We (nearly) have education capacity to accomplish this. Critical in the next five years high retirement rate from senior management and expert technical positions for production, government and sales/services. Young graduates need to mentor (in production roles) to fill many of these pending openings. The time lag for the mentoring process will create a crisis. And, we have a serious problem with retirements by education faculties

40 Education Min Eng Faculty Demographics N =

41 Education Min Eng Faculty Demographics 13 (all remaining programs responding) 68 tenured or tenure track faculty members 24% expect to retire in next 5 years (approx time for current freshmen to graduate) Half expect to retire in next 10 years

42 Next Time is of the essence Start using pertinent information to develop and implement action plans Develop similar work products for Metallurgist and Economic Geologists Systematically refine information, particularly on Demand Side Copy of our evolving document

43 Your Participation An ongoing Supply/Demand Study Copy of this evolving presentation Leigh Freeman 303/ We look forward to your comments and participation