Real Estate and Infrastructure Investment Opportunities

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Reynold French
7 years ago
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1 FRANKLIN TEMPLETON REAL ESTATE ADVISORS Real Estate and Infrastructure Investment Opportunities Jack Foster Head of Real Estate & Real Assets Franklin Templeton Real Estate Advisors World GDP Growth Almost half of global growth is due to increased demand in developing countries. Source: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank 1

Estate Advisors World GDP Growth Almost half of global growth is due to increased demand

2 Global Real Estate and Real Asset Themes Global Themes Governmental fiscal distress Shifting demographics Deleveraging Changing regulatory environment EUROPE: Loan maturities accelerating Trans-European networks Ownership transfer of public infrastructure AMERICAS: Aging infrastructure Public financing High levels of debt maturities EMERGING MARKETS: Growing middle class/disposable income Rising agricultural demand and trade Growing demand of energy consumption ASIA PACIFIC: Mass urbanization Fundamentals still relatively healthy Natural resource constrained 2 Real Assets: Building Blocks of Essential Goods and Services with Intrinsic Value 3

debt maturities EMERGING MARKETS: Growing middle class/disposable income Rising agricultural demand and trade Growing demand of energy consumption ASIA PACIFIC:

3 Real Assets and Sub-Sectors: Exploit Interconnectivity 4 Real Asset Sub-Sectors: Risk/Return Spectrum The chart represents Franklin Templeton Real Estate Advisors view of the listed sectors relative risk/return characteristics. 5

represents Franklin Templeton Real Estate Advisors view

4 Investment Opportunities Across the Risk/Return Spectrum Entity-level investing Platform investments Development projects Distressed assets Distressed debt Asset enhancement Mis-pricings Income producing Expensive Inexpensive 6 Asia Property Markets Leasing activity in Singapore is expected to increase with a continued growth in demand for commercial property and resurging investor confidence. During the first half of 2010, we have witnessed a flight-to-quality trend in the Japan office sector as tenants have consolidated their space for only a marginal increase in rental cost. Office Vacancy Rate in Central Tokyo (5 Wards) Vacancy rate for all buildings (LHS, %) Vacancy rate for new buildings (RHS, %) Source: RREEF Research, Miki Shoji, April 2010 (Forecast by RREEF Research). RREEF Research. Reprinted with permission. 7

confidence. During the first half of 2010, we have witnessed a flight-to-quality trend in the Japan office sector as tenants have consolidated their space for only a marginal increase in rental cost.

5 Asia Property Markets (continued) Rising disposable income in China is expected to drive increased retail spending. The retail market in China is currently underserved. Retail Space per Capita: Low Saturation Levels *2Q09 forecasts. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle DBS Vickers Securities. Reprinted with permission. 8 U.S. Property Markets Property markets continue to improve at a modest pace and are beginning to show signs of stabilization. While overall valuations remain approximately 25% below the peak of 2007, values have risen approximately 20% since the trough in May Change in Commercial Property Values (%) Last Month Last 12 Months Since Aug-07 Peak Since May-09 Trough 2010 Green Street Advisors, Inc. Reprinted with permission. 9

While overall valuations remain approximately 25% below the peak of 2007, values have risen approximately 20% since the trough in May 2009.

6 U.S. Property Markets (continued) With approximately $1 trillion of debt expiring in the next three years, the real estate debt markets remain a potential opportunity for investors. Estimated Total U.S. CRE Maturities Source: Deutsche Bank; Index; Trepp; Mortgage Bankers Association; U.S. Federal Reserve, 3Q09 CRE = Commercial Real Estate RREEF Research. Reprinted with permission. 10 European Property Markets With the first signs of increasing demand for space, according to CBRE, the European vacancy rate has remained stable over the quarter at just over 10%. The European office rental market should continue to improve, and prime rents and incentives are beginning to stabilize in the majority of markets. Office Rents Approach Stability as Future Supply Risks Moderate Rental Rents Growth Falling Slowing Hamburg, Luxemburg Barcelona, Budapest, Frankfurt Madrid, Lisbon and Rome Rental Rents Dusseldorf, Edinburgh, Milan, Stockholm, Stuttgart Growth Bottoming Accelerating Amsterdam, Athens, Bucharest, Copenhagen, Out Dublin, Helsinki, Prague, St. Petersburg Berlin, Brussels, Paris Istanbul, Munich Lyon London Kiev City Moscow, London West End, Oslo, Warsaw The above diagram is for illustrative and discussion purposes only. This diagram illustrates where Jones Lang LaSalle estimates each prime office market is within its individual rental cycle as at end March Markets can move around the clock at different speeds and directions. The diagram is a convenient method of comparing the relative position of markets in their rental cycle. Their position is not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. Their position refers to prime face rental values. Markets with a step pattern of rental growth do not tend to follow conventional cycles and are likely to move between the hours of 9 and 12 o clock, with 9 o clock representing a jump in rental levels following a period of stability Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. Reprinted with permission. 11

10 European Property Markets With the first signs of increasing demand for space, according to CBRE, the European vacancy rate has remained stable over the quarter at just over 10%.

7 European Property Markets (continued) European commercial real estate investment turnover reached 23.5 billion in the second quarter of 2010, representing a 15% increase over the first quarter of European Investment Turnover Source: CB Richard Ellis. 12 Why Real Estate and Infrastructure? Large share of investment universe Inefficient pricing Potential for strong risk-adjusted returns, often with stable cash yields Hedge against inflation Why Now? Large quantities of debt expiring over the coming years Increasing deal-flow activity from capital market dislocation Global move and acceptance towards private investment into traditional public sector assets Large capital expenditures as a percentage of GDP for the next ~30 years Since predicting the market is impossible, we believe that long-term, diversified strategies remain the key for managing downside risk protection 13

Large share of investment universe Inefficient pricing Potential for strong risk-adjusted returns, often with stable cash yields Hedge against inflation Why Now?

European office market recovery continues but at varying speeds

The Jones Lang LaSalle Office Property Clock Q2 2013 European office market recovery continues but at varying speeds European Prime Office Rental Index continues upward trend Aggregate European leasing