Edwin St Catherine Director of Statistics Fourth Regional Statistical Research Seminar, Belize, Friday, 28 October 2011

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1 St Lucia Population and Housing Census 2010 Results and Analysis Edwin St Catherine Director of Statistics Fourth Regional Statistical Research Seminar, Belize, Friday, 28 October 2011

2 Census 2010 Definitions For census purposes, the total population of the country consists of all the persons falling within the scope of the census. In the broadest sense, the total may comprise either all usual residents of the country or all persons present in the country at the time of the census. The total of all usual residents is generally referred to as the de jure population and the total of all persons present as the de facto population.

3 Census Counts Table 1 A: Enumerated Population and Actual Population CHARACTERISTICS Enumerated Population Actual Population Households 151, ,595 Public Hospitals, Mental Homes & Nursing Homes Relief Houses, Poor Houses & Elderly Homes Orphanages & Boarding Schools Monasteries & Nunneries Her Majesty's Prisons Homeless Total Resident Population 152, ,526 Hotels & Guest Houses & Homes 7,194 7,194 TOTAL - De Facto 159, ,720 Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010

4 Census Counts Table 4B: Actual Household Population By District, Gender and Sex Ratio DISTRICTS MALE FEMALE TOTAL SEX RATIO* Total Castries 32,475 33,181 65, Castries City 2,044 2,129 4, Castries Suburban 8,775 9,163 17, Castries Rural 21,656 21,889 43, Anse La Raye 3,190 3,057 6, Canaries 1, , Soufriere 4,280 4,192 8, Choiseul 3,042 3,056 6, Laborie 3,346 3,355 6, Vieux Fort 8,166 8,118 16, Micoud 8,123 8,161 16, Dennery 6,310 6,289 12, Gros Islet 12,213 12,997 25, TOTAL 82,194 83, , * - Females per 100 Males Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010

5 Census Analysis Urban population is more female than male Castries Urban sex ratio Gros Islet Conversely: Rural Population is more male than female Canaries 94.9 Soufriere 97.9

6 Census Emigration Table 38A: Inter-Census Emigrant Population by Education and Sex in Last Ten Years EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Emigrants Total Percentage Sex Distribution Males Females of Total Male Female None Primary Secondary Tertiary (non-univ) University Other ,032 1, ,427 1,780 3, , TOTAL 3,855 4,581 8, Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010

7 Census Analysis Overall a decline in the Sex Ratio from to Explained by the emigration of more female, better educated persons more so women from St Lucia 45.7 men to 54.3 women, nurses, persons with degrees etc Emigrants are more professional 28% with Tertiary Education or better compared to 11% of persons in the general population with Tertiary level education or better

8 Census Counts PRELIMINARY CENSUS 2010 RESULTS Table 7: Actual Household Population for Census 1991, 2001 and 2010 DISTRICTS Actual Household Population Actual Household Population Actual Household Population Percentage Change: 1991 to 2001 Percentage Change: 2001 to 2010 Castries 51,994 64,344 65, Castries City 12,439 4, Castries Suburban 25,110 17, Castries Rural 26,795 43, Anse La Raye 5,035 6,060 6, Canaries 1,799 1,788 2, Soufriere 7,683 7,656 8, Choiseul 6,405 6,128 6, Laborie 7,491 7,363 6, Vieux Fort 13,140 14,754 16, Micoud 15,088 16,041 16, Dennery 11,168 12,767 12, Gros Islet 13,505 20,872 25, TOTAL 133, , , Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 1991, 2001, 2010

9 Table 14: Estimated Mid Year Household Population by Age Group and Gender, 2010 AGE GROUP Male Female Total Census Counts 0 to 4 5,979 5,831 11,810 5 to 9 6,678 6,472 13, to 14 7,479 7,439 14, to 19 8,116 7,805 15, to 24 6,744 6,876 13, to 29 6,553 6,736 13, to 34 6,150 6,103 12, to 39 5,952 6,333 12, to 44 6,043 6,175 12, to 49 5,496 5,467 10, to 54 4,447 4,479 8, to 59 3,177 3,313 6, to 64 2,687 2,797 5, to 69 2,087 2,293 4, to 74 1,722 1,869 3, to 79 1,145 1,420 2, to ,108 1, to , to to to and Over Total Fertility Rate: Replacement Below Replacement TOTAL 81,919 83, ,594 Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010

10

11 Census Analysis Slowing of the rate of population growth from 18% to 5% when comparing the 1990 s to the 2000 s Decline in the pre school and primary school age population Enrollment at primary school Enrollment at pre-school Some growth in the Secondary School Population

12 Census 2010 Counts PRELIMINARY CENSUS 2010 RESULTS Table 8: Population Density By District, 2001 and 2010 DISTRICTS Land Area (Sq. Miles) Actual Household Population Actual Population Household Density Population Population Density Castries ,344 2,096 65,656 2,139 Anse La Raye/ Canaries , , Soufriere , , Choiseul , , Laborie , , Vieux Fort , , Micoud , , Dennery , , Gros Islet , , TOTAL 208* 157, , *- Excludes Forest Reserve Areas Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2001, 2010

13 Census 2010 Counts PRELIMINARY CENSUS 2010 RESULTS Table 9: Number of Private Households by District DISTRICTS Number of Households Number of Households Percentage Change Castries 19,622 23, Anse La Raye 1,849 2, Canaries Soufriere 2,252 2, Choiseul 1,781 2, Laborie 2,129 2, Vieux Fort 4,144 5, Micoud 4,588 5, Dennery 3,753 4, Gros Islet 6,871 9, TOTAL 47,541 58, Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2001, 2010

14 Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2001, 2010 Census 2010 Counts Table 6: Number of Enumerated Households By District, Enumerated Household Population and Household Size DISTRICTS Enumerated Households Household Population Household Size Households Enumerated Household Household Size Population Total Castries 19,622 60, ,574 60, Castries City 3,976 11, ,458 3, Castries Suburban 7,559 23, ,911 16, Castries Rural 8,087 25, ,205 40, Anse La Raye 1,849 5, ,086 6, Canaries 552 1, , Soufriere 2,252 7, ,617 7, Choiseul 1,781 5, ,951 5, Laborie 2,129 7, ,111 6, Vieux Fort 4,144 14, ,152 14, Micoud 4,588 15, ,959 14, Dennery 3,753 12, ,144 11, Gros Islet 6,871 19, ,671 22, TOTAL 47, , , ,

15 St Lucia: Population Distribution

16 Census 2010 Counts Table 31A: Distribution of Households by Computer Ownership and District for 2001 and 2010 DISTRICT Owns a Computer 2001 Owns a Computer 2010 percentage of households Castries City Castries Suburban Castries Rural Anse La Raye Canaries Soufriere Choiseul Laborie Vieux Fort Micoud Dennery Gros Islet Total Island Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2001, 2010

17 Census 2010 Counts Table 30: Distribution of Households by Internet Connection and District for 2001 and 2010 DISTRICT Internet Connection 2001 Internet Connection 2010 No Internet Connection 2001 No Internet Connection 2010 percentage of households Shows the geographic disparity in Internet Connectivity Castries City Castries Suburban Castries Rural Anse La Raye Canaries Soufriere Choiseul Laborie Vieux Fort Micoud Dennery Gros Islet Total Island Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010

18 Census 2010 Counts Table 44B: Population by With Access to the Internet in the Past Three Months by Sex 2010 Access Male Female Total Percentage Yes, Have Access No, Do Not Have Access TOTAL Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010 Access to the internet Compared to connection to the internet which has grown by 400% from 6.7% to 26.5%

19

20 Census 2010 Counts Table 42A: Population by Highest Level of Formal Education and District, 2001 and 2010 LEVEL OF EDUCATION Castries City Castries Suburban Castries Rural Anse La Raye Canaries Soufriere Choiseul Laborie Vieux Fort Micoud Dennery Gros Islet Average Percentage of Population 2010 Day care/nursery Pre-School Pre-primary (Infant) or Primary Lower/Junior Secondary/Senior Primary Upper Secondary (Forms 4 & 5) Post Secondary, Non-Tertiary University/Tertiary (Bachelors) University/Tertiary (Masters) University/Tertiary (PhD) Other None Not Stated Total

21 Census Analysis Emigration explains some of the disparity or lack thereof between 2001 and 2010 in terms of the progress in acquiring formal education Dennery and Anse-la-Raye Canaries have are significantly below average secondary school attainment Why? Reasons?

22 Census 2010 Counts Table 43B: Population by Highest Level of Formal Education and Gender, 2010 ACADEMIC CERTIFICATE Percentage of Males Percentage of Females Gender Distribution Male Female School Leaving Cambridge School Certificate CXC Basic GCE O levels or CXC High School Diploma GCE A levels 1+/CAPE Associate Degree College Certificate College Diploma Professional Certificate Bachelor's Degree Post Graduate Certificate Post Graduate Diploma Higher Degree - Masters Higher Degree - PhD Other None Not Stated TOTAL Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010

23 Census 2010 Analysis Females finish schooling, even at the lower levels in the system, 62.8% Tertiary/University level (under-graduate), the disparity is about 3 female to 2 Males The disparity is smaller and reverses to be more male dominated at the highest level Dominance in the Education attainment of women over men is a phenomena of the age range Desire of women to have children may have some impact over 30 years or the fact the impact of this trend has not arrive is this age group

24 Census 2010 Labour Market Definitions (Based on ILO, ICLS Framework) An Employed person: A Person who works for pay, profit or family gain during a one week reference period for at least one hour An Unemployed person Is Seeking Work Wants to work Available for work If not seeking work, is discouraged, is a future start Labour Force = Employed + Unemployed Unemployment Rate = Unemployed / Labour Force

25 Census 2010 Labour Market Statistics Table 45: Census Labour Force Indicators, 2001 and 2010 INDICATOR Census 2010 Census 2001 Household Population 165, ,775 Household Population 15yrs & Over 125, ,246 Labour Force 85,310 67,238 Employed Labour Force 67,703 54,524 Unemployed Persons 17,607 12,714 Unemployment Rate 20.6% 18.9% % of Population Under 15 years 24.1% 30.5% Labour Force as a % of Household Population 51.5% 42.8% Labour Force Participation Rate 67.8% 61.5% Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010 Compared to the Population increase of 5%, the labour force has increase by 15% Increase in the Labour Force Participation Rate from 61.5% to 67.8%, reflecting increasing participation of women in the labour force Number of persons Unemployed 17,606

26 Census 2010: The Private Sector Total Employment = 67,701 = 52, , ,701 A) Private Sector (16, ,000 = 52,000) (77% of Total) Formal or Informal (16,000) Self Employed with Employees (Business Owners) Self Employed without Employees (Small Business Owners) Private Sector Employees (36,000) Formal or Informal Employment B) Public Sector and Quasi-Public (12,000) Formal or Informal Employment C) NGOs, persons in private households (maids) etc (3,701)

27

28 Share of Employment by Industry Group Employment by Industry Group Employment by Industry Group 2007 Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry Manufacturing % % Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry Manufacturing 50% 22% 10% Construction Hotels & Restaurants 40792, 57% % Construction Hotels & Restaurants 9% Other Sectors Other Sectors 9% 8385, 12%

29

30 Distribution of Employment By Industry Group for Census 2010 Valid INDUSTRY GROUP Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Valid Cumulativ Frequency Percent e Percent Accommodation and food service activities Construction Public administration and defence; compulsory social security Agriculture, forestry and fishing Manufacturing Transportation and storage Education Administrative and support service activities Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own u Financial and insurance activities Human health and social work activities Other service activities Information and communication Professional, scientific and technical activities Arts, entertainment and recreation Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies Real estate activities Mining and quarrying Total Missing System 5892 Total 67701

31 The Employed % within Industry Group Industry Group Industry Group * Occupation Group Crosstabulation Occupation Group Technicians and associate Clerical Skilled agricultural, Service and forestry and Craft and related Plant and machine operators, Elementar y Profession professional support sales fishery trades and occupatio Managers als s workers workers workers workers assemblers ns Total Activities of extraterritorial 19.1% 36.0% 18.0% 16.3% 1.1%.6%.6% 4.5% 3.9% 100.0% organizations and bodies Activities of households as employers;.6%.3% 1.5%.2% 45.3% 3.9% 2.9%.2% 45.2% 100.0% undifferentiated goods- and servicesproducing activities of households for own u Arts, entertainment and recreation 7.7% 33.9% 11.3% 5.6% 25.4% 3.8% 4.7% 2.3% 5.3% 100.0% Human health and social work 8.2% 30.0% 34.3% 6.7% 12.3%.4% 1.3%.7% 6.1% 100.0% activities Education 4.9% 70.8% 4.9% 2.6% 13.9%.1%.5%.3% 2.0% 100.0% Public administration and defence; 5.7% 24.9% 15.6% 12.3% 29.5% 1.0% 1.4% 2.4% 7.2% 100.0% compulsory social security Administrative and support service 7.4% 3.6% 6.7% 12.9% 49.2% 5.0% 2.6% 2.8% 9.8% 100.0% activities Professional, scientific and technical 8.9% 46.1% 25.2% 11.4% 4.1%.2% 2.2%.1% 1.8% 100.0% activities Real estate activities 29.6% 11.3% 39.6% 5.7% 7.5% 3.8%.6% 1.9% 100.0% Financial and insurance activities 11.8% 13.7% 27.5% 39.0% 4.9%.3%.8% 2.0% 100.0% Information and communication 12.2% 23.3% 24.1% 19.9% 9.1%.2% 9.1%.4% 1.7% 100.0% Accommodation and food service activities 8.7% 5.1% 18.7% 4.4% 41.5% 2.6% 4.8% 3.3% 10.7% 100.0% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of 10.7% 3.3% 6.7% 9.0% 48.3%.2% 12.0% 2.9% 6.8% 100.0% motor vehicles and motorcycles Construction 2.9% 2.5% 5.8% 1.4%.7%.1% 59.9% 4.5% 22.0% 100.0% Manufacturing 6.5% 4.6% 11.3% 4.1% 8.7% 2.1% 41.2% 6.6% 15.0% 100.0% Agriculture, forestry and fishing.5% 1.2%.8%.5% 1.4% 76.3%.3%.3% 18.6% 100.0% Total 6.5% 11.8% 11.4% 7.2% 24.4% 8.4% 13.2% 5.5% 11.5% %

32 Census Employment Gross Pay by Industry Group and Sex Industry Group Sex Mean No of Persons Percent Agriculture, forestry and fishing Male % Female % Total % Manufacturing Male % Female % Total % Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor Male % vehicles and motorcycles Female % Accommodation and food service activities Total % Male % Female % Total % Education Male % Female % Total % Information and communication Male % Female % Total % Financial and insurance activities Male % Female % Total % Total Male 2276 Female 2048 Total 2169

33 Census 2010 Labour Market Statistics Table 46: Employed Population by Sex and Age Group, 2010 AGE GROUP Males Female TOTAL Years 1, Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years 65 Years and Over 808 4,055 3,509 7,564 4,732 4,288 9,020 4,832 4,086 8,918 4,790 4,294 9,084 4,796 4,024 8,820 4,294 3,523 7,817 3,359 2,672 6,031 2,195 1,666 3,861 1, ,264 1, ,206 Percentage of Males Percentage of Females Gender Distribution Male Female 2, % 38% % 46% % 48% % 46% % 47% % 46% % 45% % 44% % 43% % 36% % 33% TOTAL 37,293 30,411 67, % 45% Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010

34 Census 2010 Labour Market Statistics Table 48: Unemployed Rate by Age Group and Sex for Census 2010 AGE GROUP Males Female Total Years 59% 68% 63% Years 31% 34% 32% Years 19% 21% 20% Years 14% 17% 15% Years 12% 14% 13% Years 12% 15% 13% Years 12% 13% 13% Years 13% 11% 12% Years 13% 13% 13% Years 15% 18% 16% 65 Years and Over 22% 41% 30% TOTAL 19% 22% 21% Youth Unemployment 33% 35% 34% Other Adult Unemployment 13% 16% 14% TOTAL 19% 22% 21% Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010 * Youth are defined as persons 15 to 29 years of age

35 Census 2010 Labour Market Analysis High Rates of Unemployment (20.6%) Focused on Youth (34%) The elderly, showing problem in the provision of retirement support (30%) High Rates which are geographically focused Gros-Islet (13.6%) Rest of St Lucia (26%) Canaries (33%)

36 Ranking of Communities many assets play a both direct and indirect effect on outcomes [ ], there is no way to infer from the unconstrained coefficients on the asset variables from a multivariate regression analysis the impact of an increase in wealth (Filmer and Pritchett, 1998).

37 Ranking of Communities An asset index by Filmer and Pritchett (1998), has found found significant support in the research community. The Filmer and Pritchett Asset Index, is based on using principal components analysis to derive weights for household assets, which are then used to construct a weighted aggregate index, and consequently, to classify households (or survey populations) into quintiles of wealth.. The Filmer and Pritchett Asset Index is named with a variety of terms: the Wealth Index, the Asset Index, the Standard of Living Index, etc.

38 Ranking of Communities Is it worth the effort to use principal components analysis, which probably alienates the less statistically minded researcher or the potential nontechnical reader by relying on an abstract set of weights for household assets? Or, is it possible to obtain similar results by using other, simpler approaches?.which can be better explained This is the question which was asked in this article: PERFORMANCE OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES FOR IDENTIFYING THE RELATIVELY POOR AND LINKAGES TO REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH Attila HANCIOGLU Department of Technical Demography, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies, Ankara, Turkey HUIPS, Ankara, Turkey. Glen Avilez raised this issue with me recently.

39 Ranking of Communities..\..\..\Census2010\comm2010.XLS "C:\Users\administrator.STATDOM\Downloads \Poverty 2010 Poster with Labels.jpg

40 Census 2010 Data Preliminary Report Web Database for online querying of the Census data at the level of the settlement or District only Detailed analytical report on the census Thank You

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