Trevi Finanziaria. New intake needed to sustain November 2009 Capital Goods Change in Recommendation

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1 26 November 2009 Capital Goods Change in Recommendation Price: Target price: Neutral (from Outperform) /11/ E 2010E 2011E EPS Adj. ( ) DPS ( ) BVPS ( ) D J F M A M J J A S O N TREVI FIN INDUSTRIALE FTSE ITALIA ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX Source: DATASTREAM Market Data Market Cap ( m) 808 Shares Out. (m) 64 Main Shareholder Trevisani Fam. (55.9%) Free Float (%) 44.1% 52 week range ( ) Rel Perf vs FTSE Italia All Share (%) -1m 2.3% -3m 8.7% -12m 37.4% 21dd Avg. Vol. ('000) 349 Reuters/Bloomberg TFI.MI / TFI IM Key Financial Data ( m) Turnover 1,202 EBITDA 166 EBIT 128 Net Profit 75 Shareholders' Funds 226 Net Debt (-) Cash (+) -323 Gearing % 137.2% EV/Ebitda (x) P/E adj (x) Div.Yield (%) OpFCF Yield (%) 11.6 <0 < Source: Mediobanca Securities New intake needed to sustain m backlog expected by year-end. 2010E turnover stable at 1.1bn On the back of the 783.5m order book posted in Q3, we are assuming some 200m intake by year-end, amounting to a backlog of 772.7m. This Q4 intake assumption includes the USD80m order from Repsol to operate five rigs in Argentina, but excludes the USD120m order from the Saudi Royal Family for five rigs, to be operated by a joint venture on behalf of Saudi Aramco. It is likely that the order will remain pending given the financing issues on the client side. Based on this backlog assumption, new large contracts are needed by H if the 2010 turnover is to remain stable at 1.1bn, in line with the 2009E level. Contracts in the ground engineering business are in the pipeline. We refer to the extension of the Herbert Hoover dam (some additional USD 110m) and other projects from Louisiana for repairs to levees. Any delays in intake coupled with a lower recovery from Soilmec (+15% Y/Y growth in 2010 vs. -50% in 2009E) might put at risk our 1.1bn turnover, 201m EBITDA in 2010E ( 197m in 2009E) and 92.7m net profit ( 81m in 2009E). Note that the 14.4% Y/Y growth in net profit is due to the absence of provisions for receivables (some 21m in 2009E). Management is confident to recover at least 80% of the value of these receivables. Our 2010E forecasts might be positively impacted by write-ups. A good third quarter but full-year 2009 estimates remain unchanged We left our 2009 forecasts unchanged even if Q3 results came out well above our forecasts. The reason is that the decline in the group s activity should also continue in Q4 to a larger extent (complete execution of orders collected between 2008 and the beginning of 2009). The orders gained between June and October will start to be executed by January Net debt, stable at 442m, is under control with expectations of improvement to 400m by year-end. This decrease is due to a large extent to Soilmec and the unloading of its inventories. Neutral rating (from Outperform) pending visibility on intake We move our rating to Neutral (from Outperform) given the modest visibility on 1) intake replacing orders substantially executed and 2) Soilmec outlook for The stock has broadly reached our target price of Trevi is currently trading at 5.8x EV/EBITDA and 8.7x P/E on 2010, in line with its closest peers. Note that our SOP do not include the potential gains from concessions disposals in renewable energies (see the section on page 9). Andrea Scauri Milan Office - Sales desk Equity Analyst New York Office - Sales desk mailto:andrea.scauri@mediobanca.it

2 Contents Intake assumptions and backlog trend 3 A good third quarter but full-year 2009 estimates remain unchanged Intake and Soilmec are key 6 Net debt Soilmec and lower capex target price confirmed from SOP valuation with 10% premium to peers 8 Trevi Energy hidden value potentially arising in November

3 Intake assumptions and backlog trend The tables below summarize our backlog and intake assumptions for the full years 2009 and On the back of the 783.5m order book posted in Q3 and assuming some 200m intake by yearend (including the USD 80m order from Repsol to operate five rigs in Argentina, but excluding the USD 120m order from the Saudi Royal Family for five rigs, to be operated by a joint venture on behalf of Saudi Aramco - it is likely that the order will remain pending given the financing issues on the client side), we foresee a full-year 2009 intake of 792m and a backlog of 772m by year-end. Based on this backlog assumption, large new contracts are needed by H (which we quantify as some 630m) for the 2010 turnover to remain stable at 1.1bn, in line with the 2009E level. Contracts in the ground engineering business are in the pipeline. We refer to the extension of the Herbert Hoover dam (some additional USD110m) and other projects from Louisiana for repairs to levees. Note that the intake assumption of 630m by H1 and 1.2bn by year-end look reasonable since it compares with 1.5bn intake in 2008 (the peak) and 792m in 2009E, i.e. a year with no intake in the first five months. While we are confident in the group s ability to achieve this intake, we warn investors over the timing. Any delays in intake coupled with a lower recovery from Soilmec (+15% Y/Y growth in 2010 vs. -50% in 2009E) might put at risk our 1.1bn turnover forecast for Trevi group Order backlog assumptions m FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009E FY 2010E Soilmec Petreven Drillmec Trevi Order backlog Trevi group Intake assumptions m FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009E H1 2010E FY 2010E Soilmec Petreven Drillmec Trevi Intake Trevi group Sales assumptions m FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009E FY 2010E Soilmec Petreven Drillmec Trevi Total sales Net sales* , , ,162.5 *Excluding infra-group turnover 26 November

4 As highlighted by the following chart, intake stabilizing at 1.2bn per year should allow the company to maintain its backlog in the region of 800m (we remind investors that Soilmec, the subsidiary manufacturing equipments for the ground engineering activity, largely sold to third parties, has an order book covering less than four months of activity) and turnover in the region of 1.1/1.2bn. Trevi group turnover, backlog and intake assumptions E 2010E Order backlog Sales Intake 26 November

5 A good third quarter but full-year 2009 estimates remain unchanged We left our 2009 forecasts unchanged even if Q3 results came out well above our forecasts. The reason is that the decline in the group s activity should also continue in Q4 to a larger extent (complete execution of orders collected between 2008 and the beginning of 2009). The orders gained between June and October will start to be executed by January Trevi group Q3 and 9M results vs. forecasts Q3 08 Q3 09E Q3 09A Y/Y ch. A/E 9M 08 9M 09E 9M 09A Y/Y ch. A/E Order backlog 1, % -2.1% 1, % -2.1% Total sales % % EBITDA % +33.1% % +7.6% EBITDA margin 17.8% 12.6% 17.2% 16.6% 17.8% 19.3% EBIT % +47.5% % +10.4% EBIT margin 14.7% 8.0% 12.1% 13.5% 11.8% 13.1% Net Profit % +67.7% % +12.2% Net Debt % % Source: Mediobanca Securities We see a 6.4% decline in turnover in Q4, while EBITDA should remain stable at 35/36m, given the 10m write-own relating to Soilmec recorded in Q We do not expect any additional provision for receivables in Q4 2009, given that the bulk of it has already been recorded ( 21m as of September 2009). Trevi group Q4 and 2009E forecast 4Q08 4Q09E % Ch. 2009E % Ch. Turnover % 1, % Inventories and others Work done % 1, % EBITDA % % EBITDA margin 12.6% 13.1% 17.8% D&A (14.1) (8.4) -29.9% (60.0) 55.0% EBIT % % EBIT margin 7.8% 10.0% 12.4% Pre-tax profit % % Taxes 0.4 (10.8) n.m. (36.0) 13.2% Tax rate n.m. 48.1% 30.0% Minorities (0.2) (0.8) n.m. (3.0) 11.4% Net profit % % 26 November

6 2010 Intake and Soilmec are key. Bottom line benefitting from potential write-up of receivables As already discussed, our 2010E turnover is highly dependent on the intake to be collected in the early months of the year. In addition, we are factoring in a 15% recovery from Soilmec. This compares with the 50% drop expected this year. As far as profitability is concerned, we expect the company to be able to maintain the same level of margins. Note that improved profitability in the ground engineering activity is higher than its main competitor s (Bauer), given Trevi s greater exposure to foreign countries (US, South America and the Middle East). As such, a consistent flow of orders outside the domestic market is required to maintain the current level of profitability. Trevi group Turnover and profitability breakdown by business division 2008 %Ch 2009 %Ch 2010 %Ch Foundation works (Trevi) % % % EBITDA % % % EBITDA margin 16.8% 23.0% 21.0% Drilling services (Petreven) % % % EBITDA % % % EBITDA margin 21.9% 22.0% 22.0% Foundation equipment (Soilmec) % % % EBITDA % % % EBITDA margin 12.2% 9.5% 10.0% Drilling equipment (Drillmec) % % % EBITDA % % % EBITDA margin 14.9% 13.0% 13.5% Infra-group turnover Turnover % % % Inventories and others % Work done % Group's EBITDA % % % EBITDA margin 15.8% 17.8% 17.3% 2010E EBITDA of 201m is substantially in line with the 197m expected this year. Note that the 14.4% Y/Y growth in net profit is due to the absence of provisions on receivables (some 21m in 2009E). Management seems confident that it will recover at least 80% of the value of these receivables over the next 18 months. Our 2010E forecasts might be positively impacted by potential write-ups that we did not include in our forecasts. 26 November

7 Trevi group 2009E and 2010E consolidated forecasts 2009E % Ch. 2010E % Ch. 2011E % Ch. Turnover 1, % 1, % 1, % Inventories and others Work done 1, % 1, % 1, % EBITDA % % % EBITDA margin 17.8% 17.3% 16.2% D&A (60.0) 55.0% (44.5) -25.8% (44.1) -0.9% EBIT % % % EBIT margin 12.4% 13.5% 12.6% Pre-tax profit % % % Taxes (36.0) 13.2% (41.0) 13.9% (41.0) -0.1% Tax rate 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Minorities (3.0) 11.4% (3.0) 0.0% (3.0) 0.0% Net profit % % % Source: Mediobanca Securities Net debt Soilmec and lower capex Net debt, stable at 442m as of September 2009, is under control with expectations of improvement to 400m by year-end. This decrease in net debt is due to a large extent to Soilmec and the unloading of its inventories. We remind investors that the sharp increase in the group s debt position refers to the period end 2008/beginning 2009, when the company s subsidiary Soilmec was forced to substantially increase its level of inventories to sustain the subsuppliers during the credit crisis (with the exclusion of the engineering phase, around 80% of Soilmec s production is outsourced). A sharp decrease in the group s net debt closely relates to: Recovery of Soilmec reference market, in order to decrease the level of inventories; New intake and the related cash-in of down-payments; Lower level of capex in 2010, i.e some 70m vs. 84m expected this year. We see 2009E net debt in the region of 401m, decreasing to 364m in 2010 and implying a free operating cash flow generation of 52m in CASH FLOW (EUR m) E 2010E 2011E Net profit and minorities Non cash items Cash flow Change in net working capital Capex Free operating cash flow Dividends Others Free cash flow Net debt November

8 13.0 target price confirmed from SOP valuation with 10% premium to peers We confirm our target price on the back of our SOP based on the four business divisions. Note that, for the ground engineering activities (Service and equipment), we took into account the current EV/EBITDA multiples of the German Bauer and the UK Keller with a 10% premium. We believe the Trevi group merits a premium given the higher profitability, justified by 1) its much lower presence in the domestic market (vs. Bauer); 2) its 100% focus on civil construction (vs. Keller, which has a presence in the residential segment). The group s 18% average EBITDA margin compares with 10% for Keller and 13% for Bauer Trevi group peer multiples 2010E EV/Sales 2010E EV/EBITDA Currency Price Mkt cap (m) 2010E P/E Ground engineering peers Keller Bauer E Average 0.6x 5.3x 12.5x Drilling service peers Average 2.9x 7.9x 14.1x Drilling equipment peers Average 1.2x 5.8x 14.4x Source: Datastream, Mediobanca Securities Trevi group SOP based on 2010E figures EV/ Sales EV/ EBITDA 2010E Sales 2010E EBITDA EBITDA margin Ground engineering divisions (Trevi and Soilmec) x 5.9x % Drilling service (Petreven) x 7.9x % Drilling equipment (Drillmec) x 5.8x % Enterprise value x 6.0x % 2010E Net Financial Position (364.1) 2010E NFP adjusted by the convertible bond (294.1) Equity Value Shares outstanding (m) 64.0 Shares outstanding (fully diluted - m) Target price Source: Mediobanca Securities We move our rating to Neutral (from Outperform) given the modest visibility on 1) intake replacing orders substantially executed and 2) Soilmec outlook on The stock has broadly reached our target price of Trevi is currently trading at 5.7x EV/EBITDA, in line with its closest peers. Finally, note that our SOP do not include the potential gains from concessions disposals in renewable energies (see the section on the next page). 26 November

9 Trevi Energy hidden value potentially arising in 2010 A quick flash-back: what is Trevi Energy? In January 2008, the group announced its plans to enter the renewable energy sector by setting up Trevi Energy (share capital of 1m). In particular, the management s aim is to design, engineer and develop offshore wind farms on its own and for third parties in Italy. The project should replicate the scheme of the two core businesses i.e.: an equipment division providing wind turbines; a service division providing the engineering work to install the wind turbines and build the wind farms. The management s aim is to exploit the technology and know-how that is already in-house (ground engineering and drilling divisions) to develop new, innovative technological systems, suitable for a sector that is expected to register strong future growth. So far, the company has not provided any indications to explain the project s sustainability and profitability. We refer to basic elements such as the forecast investment and the expected returns. In this context, the company undertakes on its own the administrative process required by law to obtain the necessary authorisation (with modest capital needs), and thereafter seek financial partners to support the project by injecting new capital. Potential capital gain from the disposal of concessions What is known is the number of concessions requested (three as of today, all in the Puglia region) for total 600Mw: 300MW in Golfo di Manfredonia; 150MW in Brindisi; 150MW in Foggia. While the concessions for the wind-farms in Brindisi and Foggia are still at early stages, the authorisation process for the 300Mw concession in Manfredonia seems to see the end. Once obtained the concession, the entry of a financial or industrial partner in a vehicle (previously spun-off from Trevi Energy) might generate a consistent capital gain in the region of 60m (i.e. conservative 200k per Mw). Assuming a 40% tax-rate, the net capital gain might stand at 36m, or 4.5% of the current market cap. Trevi Energy should remain in the vehicle with a minority stake, with the order for the 100% execution of the farm (additional long-term revenues and profits from the equipment and service activity) that we can not quantify now (missing elements to quantify the stream of revenues, the profitability and the timing). Risks Although the new business seems extremely profitable with material growth rates (the main player is Danish group Vestas, which has a global market share of around 30% and registers 26 November

10 25%/30% top-line growth per year and an operating margin between 8% and 10%), we warn investors about what we feel are real risks at first sight, which are mainly related to the Italian environment and the historic track record for this kind of project. We refer to: the length of the local authorisation process; local authorisation that is initially given and then halted amid political turmoil; tariffs and incentives for renewable energy, which might be granted and then suspended; location: the Mediterranean sea offers less wind stability and constancy compared to the North Sea. 26 November

11 THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS ISSUED BY MEDIOBANCA - BANCA DI CREDITO FINANZIARIO S.P.A. (MEDIOBANCA S.P.A.) AUTHORIZED BY BANK OF ITALY TO PROVIDE FINANCIAL SERVICES. THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL, ANY SECURITIES. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPRESENT THE CONCLUSIVE TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF ANY SECURITY OR TRANSACTION, NOR TO NOTIFY YOU OF ANY POSSIBLE RISKS, DIRECT OR INDIRECT, IN UNDERTAKING SUCH A TRANSACTION. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, INCLUDING ANY EXPRESSION OF OPINION, HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM OR IS BASED UPON SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT IS NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS ALTHOUGH MEDIOBANCA S.P.A. CONSIDERS IT TO BE FAIR AND NOT MISLEADING. SAVE AS OTHERWISE PROVIDED IN THE RESEARCH REPORT, MEDIOBANCA S.P.A. HAS NO OBLIGATION TO UPDATE, MODIFY OR AMEND THIS REPORT AND INFORM THE READER ACCORDINGLY. ALL PRICES ARE MARKET CLOSE PRICES UNLESS DIFFERENTLY SPECIFIED. TREVI FINANZIARIA SPA OR THE COMPANIES WHICH GO TO MAKE UP ITS GROUP HAVE A REPRESENTATIVE ON THE GOVERNING BODIES IN COMMON WITH THOSE OF MEDIOBANCA - BANCA DI CREDITO FINANZIARIO SPA. TREVI FINANZIARIA INITIAL COVERAGE AS OF 06/03/2006. IN THE LAST TWELVE MONTHS RATING ON TREVI FINANZIARIA SPA HAS BEEN CHANGED. THE PREVIOUS ISSUED RATING WAS OUTPERFORM ON 07/09/2009. MEDIOBANCA S.P.A. AND ITS AFFILIATED COMPANIES, OR INDIVIDUALS CONNECTED TO THEM ARE UNDER NO OBLIGATION TO DISCLOSE OR TAKE ACCOUNT OF THIS DOCUMENT WHEN ADVISING OR DEALING WITH OR FOR THEIR CUSTOMERS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING QUARTERLY RATING STATISTICS AND DESCRIPTIONS, CHINESE WALL MECHANISMS PUT IN PLACE BY MEDIOBANCA S.P.A. AND ANY OTHER DISCLAIMERS, PLEASE REFER TO THE MB SECURITIES SECTION OF THE MEDIOBANCA S.P.A. WEBSITE AT TO ACCESS PREVIOUS RESEARCH NOTES AND ESTABLISH TRENDS IN RATINGS ISSUED, PLEASE SEE THE RESTRICTED ACCESS PART OF THE MB SECURITIES SECTION OF THE MEDIOBANCA S.P.A. WEBSITE AT ADDITIONAL NOTES TO U.S. INVESTORS: THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS PREPARED BY MEDIOBANCA - BANCA DI CREDITO FINANZIARIO S.P.A. AND DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES BY MEDIOBANCA SECURITIES USA LLC, A FINRA MEMBER FIRM. THIS INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS COMMUNICATION IS FOR DISCUSSION AND IS NOT BINDING ON MEDIOBANCA SECURITIES USA LLC OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES. MEDIOBANCA SECURITIES USA LLC IS AN AFFILIATE OF MEDIOBANCA - BANCA DI CREDITO FINANZIARIO S.P.A.. MEDIOBANCA - BANCA DI CREDITO FINANZIARIO S.P.A. HAS NO OBLIGATION TO UPDATE, MODIFY OR AMEND THIS REPORT AND INFORM THE READER ACCORDINGLY, EXCEPT WHEN TERMINATING COVERAGE OF THE ISSUER OF THE SECURITIES DISCUSSED IN THIS REPORT. THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPRESENT THE CONCLUSIVE TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF ANY SECURITY OR TRANSACTION, NOR TO NOTIFY YOU OF ANY POSSIBLE RISKS, DIRECT OR INDIRECT, IN UNDERTAKING SUCH A TRANSACTION. THE ATTACHED TERMS ARE INDICATIVE AND CONSTITUTE NEITHER AN OFFER TO SELL NOR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WE WILL ASSUME, UNLESS YOU NOTIFY US OTHERWISE, THAT YOU HAVE SUFFICIENT KNOWLEDGE, EXPERIENCE AND/OR PROFESSIONAL ADVICE TO UNDERTAKE YOUR OWN ASSESSMENT. ALL OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS RESEARCH REPORT ACCURATELY REFLECT THE RESEARCH ANALYST'S PERSONAL VIEWS REGARDING THE SUBJECT COMPANY. NO PART OF ANALYST COMPENSATION WAS, IS OR WILL BE, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY RELATED TO THE SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS OR VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS RESEARCH REPORT. MEDIOBANCA SECURITIES USA LLC ACCEPTS RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CONTENT OF THIS REPORT. ANY US PERSON RECEIVING THIS REPORT AND WISHING TO EFFECT ANY TRANSACTION IN ANY SECURITY DISCUSSED IN THIS REPORT SHOULD CONTACT MEDIOBANCA SECURITIES USA LLC AT 001(212) PLEASE REFER TO THE CONTACT PAGE FOR ADDITIONAL CONTACT INFORMATION. 26 November

12 Profit & Loss account ( m) E 2010E 2011E Turnover 1,202 1,209 1,263 1,339 Turnover growth % EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) EBITDA growth (%) Depreciation & Amortization EBIT EBIT margin (%) EBIT growth (%) Net Fin.Income (charges) Non-Operating Items Extraordinary Items Pre-tax Profit Tax Tax rate (%) Minorities Net Profit Net Profit growth (%) Adjusted Net Profit Adjusted Net Profit growth (%) Balance Sheet ( m) E 2010E 2011E Working Capital Net Fixed Assets Total Capital Employed Shareholders' Funds Minorities Provisions Net Debt (-) Cash (+) Cash Flow Model ( m) E 2010E 2011E Cash Earnings Working Capital Needs Capex (-) Financial Investments (-) Dividends (-) Other Sources / Uses Ch. in Net Debt (-) Cash (+) Multiples E 2010E 2011E P/E Adj P/CEPS P/BV EV/ Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/Cap. Employed Yield (%) OpFCF Yield (%) <0 < FCF Yield (%) <0 < Per Share Data ( ) E 2010E 2011E EPS EPS growth (%) EPS Adj EPS Adj. growth (%) CEPS BVPS DPS Ord Key Figures & Ratios E 2010E 2011E Avg. N of Shares (m) EoP N of Shares (m) Avg. Market Cap. ( m) Adjustments ( m) Enterprise Value ( m) 1,122 1,209 1,172 1,143 Labour Costs/Turnover (%) 12% 13% 13% 13% Depr.&Amort./Turnover (%) 3% 5% 4% 3% Prod. Ratio (Turn./Op.Costs) Gearing (Debt / Equity) (%) 137% 130% 92% 70% EBITDA / Fin. Charges 9.7 >10 >10 >10 Net Debt / EBITDA Cap.Employed/Turnover (%) 48% 61% 62% 63% Capex / Turnover (%) 10% 7% 6% 5% Pay out (%) 10% 10% 10% 10% ROE (%) 33% 27% 24% 20% ROCE (%) (pre tax) 22% 19% 20% 19% ROCE (%) (after tax) 16% 13% 14% 13%

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