2009 Global Outlook Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Haas School of Business. Jacques Gordon April 14 th, 2009

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1 2009 Global Outlook Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Haas School of Business Jacques Gordon April 14 th, 2009

2 Outline Global Credit Crisis Impact: Re-Pricing and Performance Opportunities and Challenges Implications for Global l Real Estate t Investors Investment Recommendations for

3 Financial Crisis Easing; Global Recession in Full Swing Emergency response from Governments and Central Banks to deal with the collapse of the Global Banking System. Inter-bank rates & equity pricing are lead indicators of recovery. Real Economy Recession underway across G-20. Process of de-leveraging, re-pricing and restructuring taking place at different speeds in different countries. Commercial real estate t fundamentals to deteriorate t sharply in Remain weak in Slow recovery in Asia ex-japan poised for stronger recovery after sharp correction. - North American recovery likely l to be stronger than Europe. - But, European occupancy rates will remain higher than US. 3

4 Virtuous Cycle: Capital Markets Credit Expansion Securitization Rising Stock Market Real Economy Job Growth Booming Housing Market Low Savings Rates Commercial Real Estate Rent Growth High Occupancy Falling Cap Rates 4

5 Vicious Cycle: Capital Markets Credit Contraction Crisis of Confidence Equity Market Volatility Real Economy Corporate Earnings Fall Household Spending Falls Housing Bubble Bursts Job Losses Commercial Real Estate Rent and Occupancy Fall Rising Cap Rates Values Fall 5

6 GDP growth across major regions of the world well below global capacity in % 5.0% DP Growth Real Annual G 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 10% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% MENA Asia-Pacific Latin America World CEE* Western Europe North America Year World Historic Average Growth Source: Global Insight as of April 9, 2009 Note: *CEE includes Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. 6

7 Emergency Room Economics Inflation moves to Deflation and back again. Monetary Stimulus: Falling Interest Rates have little power. Fiscal Stimulus: Needed to jump-start Demand. Risk Averse Credit Markets Shrinking Capital Base of banks, pension funds, SWFs 7

8 Global Diversificiation? Not in 2008! REITs Repriced in line with Broader Equity Market Annual Total Returns (in USD) 10 Year (as of All Property 1 Year* 10 Year* 3Q 2008) MSCI Global Stocks -41.9% 0.2% 4.8% EPRA/NAREIT Global -47.7% 6.6% 12.1% North America -40.6% 7.2% 12.5% Europe -51.1% 6.1% 10.7% Japan -33.4% 7.8% 12.9% *As of December 31, 2008 Source: Bloomberg, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Note: Gross total returns were used; 10 year returns are annualized. 8

9 Global Real Estate Performance: Record Volatility Through April 9, 2009 UBS Investors Index Global Total Returns by Country YTD 2009 Peak to Trough Rebound Global 37.5% -16.9% -42.6% -12.2% -71.8% 35.2% US 36.2% -16.4% -38.8% -18.1% -74.3% 43.8% Continent 44.7% -21.6% -43.4% 2.0% -69.7% 32.3% Britain 48.0% -37.0% -47.0% -13.4% -81.3% 54.2% Australia 33.9% -7.5% -51.5% -19.4% -73.7% 28.6% Hong Kong 18.8% 19.1% -41.1% 7.2% -50.0% 21.4% Singapore 49.8% 0.9% -53.7% 3.9% -69.1% 25.4% Japan 26.6% 2.6% -43.6% -5.6% -67.3% 21.6% Source: UBS Global Investors Index. All data are in local currencies. 9

10 Repricing: magnitude and timing Value Decline e in Downturn n 50.0% 47.5% 45.0% 42.5% 40.0% 37.5% 35.0% 32.5% 30.0% 27.5% 25.0% 22.5% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% High Low Me edium UK Japan Korea Australia Hong Kong Western Europe (ex UK) Canada Singapore Central and East Europe Mexico United States China 1st Tier Cities 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 35%, High: 35% to 50% Peak to trough price declines (vertical axis) versus the quarter(s) when process of re-pricing should be complete. 10

11 The 12-Step Recovery Program Likely Sequence of Economic-Financial Recovery: 1. Monetary easing, bank bailouts and central bank intervention 2. Bank lending to large businesses/banks resume cautiously 3. Listed equity markets show signs of recovery 4. Private equity market log-jam breaks (forced sales) 5. Real economy bottoms out 6. House prices bottom out 7. Stimulus packages get traction 8. Employment stabilizes 9. Credit availability (for consumers and small businesses) improves 10. Job growth resumes 11. Commercial leasing picks up 12. And eventually private, commercial real estate pricing stabilizes Steps 1-6 occur in 2009 (across most countries). Steps 7-12 occur in 2010 (or longer in some countries). 11

12 Private Equity Cap Rate Expansion: Still in Process All Property Long Term Yield* Risk Averse Yield** Australia % % Canada % % France % % Japan % % Germany % % UK % % US % % * Based on 15 year average real estate income premium (10 years for France). **Based on Baa Corporate Bond spreads, CMBS spreads, mortgage spreads and REIT yields. Source: NCREIF, IPD, LaSalle Investment Management Jan 7th,

13 Asia: A Delayed Reaction; Now Falling Rapidly Asia Pacific Office Rents 500 Forecast Indexed January 2005= Singapore Tokyo Sydney Hong Kong Shanghai Melbourne Sources: Jones Lang LaSalle, LaSalle Investment Management 13

14 Melbourne Beijing Office Markets Supply Problems Office supply from 2009 to 2011 As a percentage of current stock 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% % of Current Stock 0% Tokyo Hong Kong Shanghai Seoul Singapore Sydney Source: JLL REIS 14

15 Asia Re-pricing Underway 20% 18% Oct 1997 Office NOI Yields 16% Jan % 12% 10% 8% Jul % Jul 2002 Jul 2007 Jan 1999 Jan Apr 2002 Jan Jan 2002 Jul % 2% 0% Tokyo Seoul Beijng Shanghai Hong Kong Singapore Mumbai Melbourne Sydney Perth Adelaide Forecast NOI Yields Year Average NOI Yields Last Peak NOI Yields * 7 Year Hold 15

16 UK: The Most Rapid Re-Pricing 9 Returns % p.a a Equivalent Yield ds % Depreciation Est. Yield Impact Rental Growth Income Return 5 Equivalent Yields (RHS) Total Returns Source: IPD, LaSalle Investment Management 16

17 Yield Levels - Anatomy of Boom, Bust & Recovery I Index of Effec ct of Yield Mo ovements on Value B oom B ust Re ecovery Bo oom Bu ust Re ecovery Boom Bust Recovery Forecast History shows that pricing recovery has been rapid: buy in 2009 for 2010/11 recovery as equity in the wings re-entersenters market Sources: IPD, LaSalle Investment Management 17

18 Retailer Failures in 2008 in the UK, Germany and France UK has the highest number of retailers filing for insolvency but some of the major German retailers were also forced to do the same in H Source: PMA 18

19 EU Enlargement: Challenges and Opportunities Lisbon Madrid Stockholm Helsinki Tallinn Riga Øresund Manchester Region Hamburg Gdansk London Amsterdam Berlin Antwerp Warsaw Wroclaw Frankfurt Paris Prague Krakow Munich Bratislava Barcelona Lyon Marseille Milan Trieste Budapest Zagreb St.Petersburg Bucharest Sofia Kiev Moscow Odessa Istanbul Established logistics hubs Emerging markets with development opportunities Athens 19

20 Weights by Region: Early % 30% 30% 35% Asia Pacific Europe Americas Allocatio on 50% 40% 30% 20% 30% 35% 0% Core / Debt Value-Add / Blend Opportunistic / Total Return Market neutral weights: Americas 41%, Asia Pacific 19%, EMEA 40% Source: LaSalle Investment Management 20

21 International Recommendations for Strong defense. Manage liquidity. Anticipate weak fundamentals. Legacy debt at steep discounts REIT shares at steep discounts to written-down NAVs Secondary market in fund units Be Patient on Offense: Invest where re-pricing is advanced - UK - Japan - Australia - Korea 21

22 Contact Information: Jacques Gordon LaSalle Investment Management Copyright LaSalle Investment Management All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior permission of LaSalle Investment Management. 22

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