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1 Electoral Systems Pippa Norris ~ Harvard

2 Policy Options Human rights, justice, rule_law Amnesty Map of Program Options Constitutions IDEA Media freedom CPJ Democratic governance Elections ACE/ UNDP IFES Cii Civic society, it soc cap CIVICUS PAR, decentralizati on, anticorruption TI Parlt, parties, women Quotas Project

3 Structure I. Claims about electoral engineering II. III. The choice of electoral systems The effects of electoral systems IV. Conclusions and implications

4 Recap:Normative debates Adversarial democracy Based on majoritarian elections Elections should promote ACCOUNTABILITY: decisive elections, transparency of decision-making EFFECTIVENESS: single-party executives, responsible parties, unitary states SCRUTINY: effective opposition parties and vigorous parliamentary debate, and Yet dangers of elective dictatorship, permanent majorities, lack of checks. Consensus democracy Based on PR elections Elections should promote CONSENSUS: decisionmaking, bargaining and compromise PLURALISM: multiple parliamentary parties, diversity in legislature DECENTRALIZATION: dispersed decision-making processes. Yet dangers of ineffective governance, extreme multiparty fragmentation, lack of accountability etc.

5 Discussion Questions What are the pros and cons of alternative electoral systems? What would you recommend if asked to advise about designing the electoral system in either (a) Afghanistan (b) Iraq (c ) Ukraine (d) Brazil or (e) Indonesia? And why?

6 Resources 1. Required readings Norris Driving democracy Ch 5 Haerpfer Democratization Ch Oli Online resources IFES ACE International IDEA

7

8 Electoral & party aid 1990s rapid growth in international aid by USAID, NED, IDEA, IFES, OAS, OSCE: 1. Design of constitutions and electoral law 2. Electoral administration and procedures 3. Voter education 4. Election observing 5. Election dispute mediation 6. Party building

9 Figure 1: The policy cycle model of the origins, maintenance and reform of electoral institutions Agenda setting stage Policy making stage Implementation stage Public s agenda Media agenda Party agenda NGO agenda Referendum process Public policy agenda Legislature and executive Regulatory framework Constitutional, legal & administrative rules governing electoral institution Courts and judiciary Election Manage ment Bodies Election outcome International diffusion Feedback loop Feedback loop Historical traditions Environmental context Regime type Economic development

10 II: Types of electoral systems The most basic features involve: 1.The electoral formula how votes are counted to allocate seats, 2. The district magnitude the number of seats per district, 3. The ballot structure how voters can express their choices, and The electoral threshold the minimum votes needed by a party to secure representation.

11 Classification of systems Nation States 191 Majoritarian 93 Combined 27 PR 64 No direct elections 7 Majority 27 Plurality 66 Independent 14 Dependent 13 STV 2 Party List 62 AV 2 2nd Ballot 25 FPTP 54 Bloc Vote 10 STNV 2 Closed Open Adversarial Consensual

12 Table 3: Electoral system change, Note: N. 46 out of 191 independent nation states worldwide (24.1). Sources: see text. Nation Type of electoral system, 1993 Type of electoral system, 2004 Freedom House, 1993 Freedom House, 2004 Bolivia List PR Combined dependent Free Partly free Ecuador Combined independent List PR Free Partly free Italy List PR Combined dependent Free Free Japan SNTV Combined independent Free Free Marshall Islands FPTP Combined independent Free Free Monaco Two round Combined independent Free Free Mongolia FPTP Two round Free Free New Zealand FPTP Combined dependent Free Free Papua New Guinea FPTP AV Free Partly free Tuvalu FPTP Block vote Free Free Albania Combined independent Combined dependent Partly free Partly free Croatia Combined independent List PR Partly free Free Fiji FPTP AV Partly free Partly free Guatemala Combined independent List PR Partly free Partly free Jordan Block vote SNTV Partly free Partly free Kazakhstan FPTP Combined independent Partly free Not free Lesotho FPTP Combined dependent Partly free Free Liberia List PR No elected legislature Partly free Partly free Macedonia Tworound List PR Partly free Partly free Madagascar List PR Combined independent Partly free Partly free Mexico Combined independent Combined dependent Partly free Free Moldova, Republic Of Two round List PR Partly free Partly free Morocco FPTP List PR Partly free Partly free Pakistan FPTP Combined independent Partly free Not free Panama List PR Combined independent Partly free Free Philippines Block vote Combined independent Partly free Free Russian Federation Two round Combined independent Partly free Not free South Africa FPTP List PR Partly free Free

13 Table 2: Net change matrix in the distribution of electoral systems, 1993 and 2004 Type of electoral syste em1993 Type of electoral system 2004 Combine d depende No elected legislatur e FPTP Block vote AV SNTV Tworoun d Combined independe nt nt List PR STV Total 1993 FPTP Block vote AV SNTV Two round Combined independe nt Combined dependent d List PR STV 2 2 No elected legislature Total Notes: The table lists the number (and row ) of independent nation states worldwide using each type of electoral system for the lower house of the national parliament in 1993 and The highlighted diagonal shows those countries which have not changed their electoral system during these years. FPTP First Past the Post; 2 nd Ballot; Block Vote; AV Alternative Vote; SNTV Single Non Transferable Vote; STV Single Transferable Vote. For the typology, see Figure 2.

14 Figure 5.3: Trends in types of electoral systems used worldwide, Majoritarian Combined Proportional No competative elections Source: Coded from Arthur S. Banks Cross-national Time-series Data Archive, Andrew Reynolds and Ben Reilly. Eds The International IDEA Handbook of Electoral System Design. 2 nd ed. Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, and related sources

15 1. Plurality Single member plurality elections (First-Past-The-Post) Used in 54 countries Eg US, UK, India, Canada Single seat districts, equal size, X vote Simple plurality of votes determines winner Create manufactured majority in votes:seats ratio Geographical dispersion of support is critical High threshold for non-spatially concentrated minor parties and ethnic groups

16 FPTP Ballot Eg UK 30 Advantages and disadvantages? X Elected w. plurality

17 2005 UK election result June 2005 of Votes of seats Ratio Number of seats Labour Conservative Lib Dem SNP PC Other Labour Maj Total Source: Pippa Norris & Chris Wlezien Ed. Britain Votes 2005 (OUP 2005)

18 Simulated seats GB June Lab 300 Con Ldem UKIP Nat 150 Green BNP 50 Other Actual results FPTP List PR Source: Dunleavy and Margetts in Pippa Norris (Ed) Britain Votes 2005 OUP

19 Majoritarian Variants Single Non-Transferable Vote Japan , Jordan, Vanuatu, Afghanistan Small multimember districts i t Multiple candidates from same party Single vote cast & plurality vote required Advantages and disadvantages? Cumulative vote Dual member seats eg Illinois until 1980 Limited vote eg Spanish senate

20 2. Second ballot majority Eg Presidential elections France, Russia, DRC Used in 14/25 presidential contests + some parliamentary elections Majority required (50+) 1 st round winner Or run off 2 nd round w. top two candidates Aims to produce party coalitions on left and right and popular legitimacy of the winner Heart and head voting Advantages and disadvantages?

21 3. Alternative Vote (AV) Eg Australian House of Representatives Single member districts Priority ranked voting (1st,2nd,3rd,etc.) Majority required (50+) 1 st round Or 2 nd round bottom votes 2 nd preferences redistributed etc. and results recalculated until majority achieved

22 Eg AV Australia Vote ticket or Vt Vote 1t to 10 among candidates Advantages and disadvantages?

23 4. Single Transferable Vote Used in Ireland, Australian Senate, Malta Multimember constituencies (4/5 members) Priority voting (1,2,3,..) Quota for election eg 100,000 voters/4 seats= Redistribution in successive counts from candidate with least votes

24 5. PR Party Lists National or regional district Closed or open list Used 62/191 nations eg Israel, Netherlands One vote for party (X) Minimum threshold of votes

25 Eg Party List S.Africa Advantages and disadvantages?

26 PR List formula Votes proportional to seats allocated by different formula Highest averages Total votes per party divided by divisors, seats allocated to highest quotient up to total seats available D Hondt formula divisions i i 123 1,2,3 etc eg Poland, Spain (least prop.) Pure Saint-Laguë divisor 1,3,5,7 etc eg New Zealand Modified Saint-Laguë 1.4, 3,5,7 etc eg Norway (most proportional) Largest remainder Minimum quota (total votes/total seats) Hare quota total votes/total seats eg Benin, Costa Rica Droop quota raises divisor i by 1 eg S.Africa, Czech Rep.

27 Eg D Hondt formula Highest averages Party Seats Blues 6 Whites 3 Reds 2 Green 1 Yellow 0 Pinks * 26000* 25950* 12000* * 13000* 12975* * 8667* * * *

28 Eg Largest remainders Hare Quota=(130,010 total votes/12 seats=10,384) Votes Quota Dividend Seats Blues Whites Rd Reds Greens Yellows Pinks

29 6. Combined systems Aka Mixed, hybrid, side-by-side Combined-independent eg Taiwan and Ukraine Ukraine half FPTP, half nation-wide lists, 4 thresholds Combined-dependent eg Germany, New Zealand, Germany half seats by party list, half by FPTP. Seats allocated by FPTP Total seats proportional to 2 nd party vote

30 Eg Combined system Germany X x Advantages and disadvantages?

31 III. Effects of electoral systems 1. On democracy 2. Proportionality of votes to seats (fair outcomes) 3. Party competition 4. Electoral l turnoutt 5. Parliamentary representation Women & ethno-political minorities 6. Strength of cleavage politics 7. Constituency service

32 Figure 5.4: Levels of democracy by type of electoral system, 2000 On democracy 90 Low << Demo ocracy >> High FH Polity Vanhanen Cheibub Majoritarian Combined PR

33 In plural societies Low << Dem mocracy >> High FH Polity FH Polity Homogeneous Heterogeneous Majoritarian Combined PR

34 Table 5.2: Electoral systems and democracy, all societies worldwide Liberal democracy Constitutional democracy Participatory democracy Freedom House Polity IV Vanhanen INSTITUTIONAL RULES b (pcse) p b (pcse) p b (pcse) p Majoritarian (.454) *** (.949) *** (.533) *** Proportional representation.904 (.619) N/s 3.85 (.561) *** 1.95 (.344) *** Positive action strategies 4.13 (.466) *** (.777) *** 5.76 (.284) *** CONTROLS Log GDP/Capita (.832) *** (1.01) *** (.663) *** Ex-British colony (.962) *** (1.36) *** 2.05 (.803) ** (1.16) *** (1.40) *** (.809) *** Regional diffusion.632 (.036) ***.883 (.049) ***.481 (.029) *** Ethnic fractionalization (.878) *** (1.56) N/s (.694) *** Population size.001 (.001) N/s.000 (.001) ***.001 (.001) *** Area size.001 (.001) ***.001 (.001) ***.001 (.001) *** Constant N. observations N. of countries Adjusted R

35 2. Impact on proportionality Proportionality of votes to seats 20 Seat share Winning party Perfect proportionality 2 nd party, 3rd etc Vt Vote share 20

36 Proportionality Standardized Loosemore-Hanby Index Proportionality MAJORITARIAN UK 80 Canada 83 Australia 84 USA 94 COMBINED Korea, Republic of Japan Ukraine Hungary Thailand Russia Mexico Germany Taiwan New Zealand PROPORTIONAL Poland Romania Slovenia Czech Republic Spain Switzerland Netherlands Norway Belgium Israel Sweden Denmark Peru

37 Proportionality influenced by: 1. Number of parties in the electorate 2. Geographical distribution of the vote 3. District magnitude 4. Legal vote thresholdsh 5. The type of electoral formulae eg d Hondt etc

38 3. Impact on parties: Duverger s laws (1) The plurality single-ballot rule tends to party dualism. (2) The double-ballot system and proportional representation tend to multipartyism. Maurice Duverger Political Parties, Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State. New York: Wiley.

39 Effect on parties Mean N of parl Mean N of relevant parties (1 seat) parl parties (3+ seats) Vote for Seats for Number of party 1st party 1st countries All Majoritarian Alternative Vote Block vote nd Ballot FPTP All Combined Independent Dependent ALL Proportional STV Party List TOTAL Ref: Pippa Norris Institutions Matter CUP 2003

40 ENPP by Electoral System Effective Number of Parliamentary Parties MAJORITARIAN USA 2.0 UK 2.1 Australia Canada COMBINED Korea, Republic of Taiwan Mexico Thailand Japan Germany Hungary New Zealand Russia Ukraine PROPORTIONAL Spain Poland Romania Czech Republic Sweden Norway Netherlands Denmark Switzerland Slovenia Israel Belgium Ref: Pippa Norris Institutions Matter CUP

41 4. Effect on Turnout Ref: Pippa Norris Democratic Phoenix Ch 4. Type of Electoral System MAJORITARIAN Mean Vote/VAP 1990s N. Alternative Vote nd Ballot First-Past-The-Post t P t Single Non-Transferable Vote Block Vote All majoritarian COMBINED Combined-Dependent Combined-Independent All combined PROPORTIONAL List PR Single Transferable Vote All PR Systems All

42 Effect on Turnout Ref: Pippa Norris Democratic Phoenix Ch 4. Type of Electoral System MAJORITARIAN Mean Vote/VAP 1990s N. Alternative Vote nd Ballot First-Past-The-Post t P t Single Non-Transferable Vote Block Vote All majoritarian COMBINED Combined-Dependent Combined-Independent All combined PROPORTIONAL List PR Single Transferable Vote All PR Systems All

43 Impact of compulsory voting Vote/VAP Vote/Reg N. of Nations Older democracies Compulsory Non-Compulsory Difference Newer democracies Compulsory Non-Compulsory Difference Semi-democracies Compulsory Non-Compulsory Difference Non-democracies Compulsory Non-Compulsory Difference All Compulsory Non-Compulsory Difference

44 5. Impact on women As a simple rule, women proved twice as likely to be elected under PR than majoritarian electoral systems. Women were 10.8 percent of MPs in majoritarian systems, 15.1 percent in mixed or semi-proportional systems, and 19.8 percent of members in PR systems. P.Norris in R.Rose Encyclopedia of Elections (CQ 2001)

45 COUNT TRY South Korea Pakistan Mali Nepal Ukraine Malawi Thailand France Zambia India Chile Philippines Australia UK Bangladesh USA Canada Taiwan Japan Ecuador Venezuela Hungary Ireland Russia Mexico Italy Bolivia New Zealand Germany Turkey Madagasgar Greece Brazil Czech Rep Uraguay Portugal Israel Colombia Belgium Poland Bulgaria Costa Rica Spain Switzerland Argentina Austria Netherlands South Africa Mozambique Finland Denmark Norway Sweden FPTP Mixed PR Women MPs mid 1990s

46 Conclusions Therefore no single best system Depends upon priorities choice of governability v. diversity Critical for many other democratic institutions What are the consequences of electoral systems?

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