Innovating in Nordic Style: Technological Prospects in the Nordic ICT Foresight Project

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1 Innovating in Nordic Style: Technological Prospects in the Nordic ICT Foresight Project Toni Ahlqvist Senior Research Scientist, Project Manager VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment Changing foresight practices in regional development , Turku

2 Project idea and objectives To identify, select and present scenarios illustrating the prospects for possible future applications for IC technologies with respect to technology, application and market issues To explore the roads to commercialisation provide solutions where ICT can provide positive contributions to societal wellbeing identification of unique market opportunities with longer term growth potential To explore appropriate ways of implementing the innovative ICT applications and systems prioritise research, development and commercialisation of ICT consider the required infrastructure technologies To estimate and compare the implications of the ICT applications in Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden) assist in developing appropriate framework policies that facilitate the developments in desired directions build roadmaps up to 2015 of the developments in ICT's Meta aim > To consider the elements that are unique in Nordic ICT culture < Is there a specific Nordic innovations "style" in ICT's?

3 WP1 WP1 Preliminary studies WP3 WP3 SWOT SWOT analysis Selection of focus areas and applications WP2 WP2 Web site & information WP WP Evaluation WP4 WP4 Scenario and and vision vision workshop WP6 WP6 Roadmap seminar National seminars WP7 WP7 Action seminar WP9 WP9 Reporting WP10 WP10 Nordic conference

4 Nordic ICT Foresight project coalition Research / core partners 1. DTI, Danish Technological Institute (Denmark) 2. FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency (Sweden) 3. SINTEF, Foundation for Scientific and Industrial Research at the Norwegian Institute of Technology (Norway) 4. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland) Cooperation partners 5. Confederation of Danish Industries (Denmark) 6. The Danish Society of Engineers (IDA) (Denmark) 7. Ericsson Microwave Systems (Sweden) 8. Vinnova (Swedish Innovation System Agency) (Sweden) 9. Göteborg Pediatric Growth Research Center at Göteborg University (Sweden) 10. Abelia (Norway) 11. LO (Landsorganisasjonen) (Norway) 12. The Research Council of Norway (Norway) 13. SIVA The Industrial Development Corporation of Norway (Norway) 14. Oslo Innovation Center (Norway) 15. Nokia Corporation (Finland) 16. Sitra (Finland) 17. Stakes (Finland) 18. Technology Industries of Finland (Finland) 19. TEK, Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers (Finland)

5 General framework 1. Defining technological vision Science Science and and education education Vision Vision about about the the phases phases of of technology technology in in Technology Technology Business Business and and industry industry Market Market The The contemporary contemporary phase phase of of technology technology Government Government 2. Backcasting: steps between present and futures

6 Evolutionary technologies and weak technology signals A B Evolutionary technologies C D E F Weak technology signals

7 Convergence of IC technologies SEPARATE TECHNOLOGIES AND PRODUCT GROUPS MODULARIZATION OF TECHNOLOGIES AND INCREASE OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS CONVERGENCE AND COMPATIBILITY OF MODULAR PRODUCT GROUPS HETEROGENEOUS NETWORKS b b B 2 B 3 B prod B B B 1 B 3 B 4 B 1 n B B n B prod A 1 A 3 A A A n n n n A A A B 2 n b B 5 C C C A prod A 2 C 1 C 2 C prod

8 Thematic fields of the project The project focus areas were defined by the project partners in the beginning of the project (planning of the proposal, first core group meeting). These are: Experience economy (media and communication) Health care Production economy (industrial automation, production systems) Security (emphasis on information security)

9 Applications, generic technologies and project emphases GENERIC ICT s APPLICATIONS T 1 T 2 T 3 T 4 T 5 Application 1 P R O J E C T E M P H A S E S Experience economy communication and media Health care Production economy and industrial systems Information security Application 2 Application 3 Application 1 Application 2 Application 3 Application 1 Application 2 Application 3 Application 1 Application 2 Application 3

10 National SWOT analyses (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark) December 2005 The aim of the SWOT analyses was to identify and characterise the main differences in the ICT developments In Norway, SWOT was carried out as a workshop (1 session) In Sweden, it was competed as a small scale questionnaire In Finland, SWOT was carried out as a workshop (1 session) In Denmark, SWOT was completed as a four workshops concentrating on the project emphases The main results of the SWOT analyses on the website(

11 Scenario and vision workshop in Bålsta, B Sweden Organized by FOI Two themes visions of the ICT applications outline a draft set of external scenarios for the socio technical environment of ICT's in the Nordic region (time horizon 10 years) Workshop was built on the application of Shell scenario method Gathering of visions Drafting and elaboration of scenario set Evaluation of the vision according to the scenario set

12 1. Smart training Three examples of the evaluated visions Home exercise equipment Virtual interface gives motivation via games Virtual runner, run in the landscape 4. All sensors sports events A lot sensors are places at various strategic places in a sports event, e.g. football (the ball, the shoes, around arena), Formula 1, hockey (camera in the walls, the helmets, the goal),.. Create innovative online games based on sensor information; betting markets Create new visual services 9. Control system for efficient energy use A control system for e.g. efficient heating of buildings Combination of sensors and optimisation algorithms decreases the energy need radically

13 Scenario axes User acceptance Scenario 2: The Nordic Mystique Harmony Scenario 1: ICT for Security s Sake EU US EU US China China Open source Scenario 3: Elite Users Paradise Scenario 4: Big Business Lock In Lock in Business paradigm EU US EU US China China Conflict

14 Roadmapping workshop in Espoo, Finland Organized by VTT Application that links the results of the SWOT workshops and especially scenario workshop Four roadmaps: experience economy, health, production economy, information security Five roadmap s: 1.Science and education (needs for scientific research, needs for competences) 2.Technology (networks, terminals, content delivery, quality of service, security among others) 3.Business/industry (business opportunities, business development in the match between technologies and markets, finance, industrial standards) 4.Market (market mechanisms and end use markets) 5.Government (industry policy, public R&D, early market stimulation, standardisation)

15 Four thematic roadmaps were created in different scenario settings User acceptance Health Scenario 2: The Nordic Mystique Harmony Scenario 1: ICT for Security s Sake (Information) Security EU US EU US China China Open source Scenario 3: Elite Users Paradise Lock in Scenario 4: Big Business Lock In Business paradigm EU US EU US Production economy China China Experience economy Conflict

16 Outcome of the roadmap workshop Science and education Vision 1 Technology Vision 3 Vision 2 Business and industry Vision 4 Market Government Vision

17 Draft roadmap of the intelligent fabrics and paper experience economy Science and education Technology Business and industry Natural sciences Design > products Standardized software Locking the prices Nano research Nano backlash > compare genetics RFID's > basic technologies Combinations of fabrics and electronics Structure and colour changing clothes, positioning Intelligent fabrics Intelligent paper Intelligent wallpaper Packages with sensors, basic products Information substitutes paper Changing landscape walls Illuminating wallpapers Potential disruptions Market Government Price lockin Network externalities > path dependence ipod, Apple "Policy products" Lock in breaking policies Market acceptance? Policies promoting No large consumer markets for intelligent clothes Government procurements of technologies > critical mass, licensing Children's clothes Military Market acceptance? Cheap basic technologies "Undercurrents" "undernets" Nichemarkets for "nonintelligent" products Constant Restictions positioning and based on monitoring intelligent materials "What to read" "Too much sugar" "What kinds 2006 interoperability 2010 of pictures 2016 you have on the walls"

18 Conclusions Short future of the Nordic ICT Foresight Presentation introduced the Nordic ICT Foresight project It discussed the project structure, methodology and reflected on the preliminary results Future activities include Finalizing a reports on the SWOT workshops and scenario workshop Elaborating the roadmaps Constructing a report on the roadmapping workshop The action workshop in October 2006, Norway Writing the final report to the series of Nordic Innovation Centre Preparing of the Nordic seminar with two other NICe projects: Nordic Foresight Forum and FOBIS (Foresight on Biosensors) After all the phases are through and material analyzed, the question about the Nordic innovation style can be raised and considered

19 Project website: ictfore.vtt.fi ictfore.vtt.fi

20 THANK YOU! Toni Ahlqvist Senior Research Scientist VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment Betonimiehenkuja 3, Espoo, P.O.Box 1000 FIN VTT, Finland Tel fax

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