Housing Market Outlook Quebec Region Highlights

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1 H o u s i n g M a r k e t I n f o r m a t i o n Housing Market Outlook Quebec Region Highlights C a n a d a M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n Date Released: First Quarter 2015 Total housing starts (province of Quebec) Housing Market Figure 1 Total housing starts (province of Quebec) 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 Centris sales (province of Quebec) 35,000 30, (f) 2015(f) 2016(f) Source: CMHC Figure 2 Centris sales (province of Quebec) 82,000 80,000 78,000 76,000 74,000 72,000 70,000 68,000 66, (f) 2015(f) 2016(f) Overview A gradual pick up in Quebec s economic growth over the next two years will provide some stimulus to housing demand in 2015 and During this period, resale markets will tighten somewhat, which will help sustain housing starts. However, despite an edging up of demand, the expected supply levels will keep price growth below the 2 per cent mark. In the next two years, economic growth will stem from consumer spending and net exports. Meanwhile, private investment and public expenditure growth will be limited by the rise of the US dollar and by balanced budget objectives respectively. Thus, following growth of 1.5 per cent in 2014, Quebec GDP will increase by 2.0 per cent in 2015 and in The impact on labour markets will be felt more substantially at the end of As a result, employment will grow at a rate of 0.6 per cent in 2015 and 1.3 per cent the year after. The unemployment rate will regress from 7.7 per cent in 2014 to 7.5 per cent in 2015 and to 7.1 per cent in Source: CMHC Housing market intelligence you can count on

2 The moderate job market recovery and the relative weakening of labour markets in western Canada will help retain workers in the province. Moreover, with the help of rising immigration, total net migration, will likely exceed 39,000 persons in 2015 and 43,000 persons the following year. Such levels will have a positive impact on demand in Quebec s rental markets. In Detail Single Starts Again this year, demand for new single-detached homes will be influenced by moderate employment growth, the tightening of the resale market. Starts in this category will climb toward the 13,000 level this year. As the resale market tightens, demand for new singledetached homes will increase. This will translate into 13,700 starts next. Multiple Unit Starts After edging back up last year, as a result of developments in certain large apartment construction sites in downtown Montréal, multiple unit housing starts will go back to a level that is more in line with the demographic trends. Further growth will be held back by relatively high levels of supply of new and resale housing, which will limit the need for additional building. Starts of multiple unit dwellings will be at 25,800 units in 2015 and at 26,400 in Resales Sales of existing houses recorded by Centris should increase slightly this year and next, in line with employment growth. A total of 72,600 transactions is thus expected this year. Following this increase, slightly more robust labour markets will translate into 73,400 Centris in Prices As mentioned earlier, despite rising demand, supply levels on the resale market will limit price growth during the forecast horizon. In this context, prices of resale homes will post marginal growth during the next two years (1.9 per cent in 2015 and in 2016). As a result, the average price recorded by Centris will reach $270,800 in 2015 and $276,000 in Mortgage rates are expected to remain at or close to current levels over the forecast horizon Mortgage rates will continue to be supportive of housing demand. Consistent with the view of Canadian economic forecasters, CMHC expects interest rates to remain at or very close to current levels over the forecast horizon. 1 Year 5 Year Mortgage rates Q Change from Q (F) (F) Q Change from Q (F) (F) Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC NOTE: Mortgage rate forecast is based on Q data According to CMHC s base case scenario for 2015, the one-year mortgage rate is expected to be in the 2.60 to 3.80 per cent range, while the five-year rate is forecast to be within the 4.30 to 5.80 per cent range. For 2016, the one-year mortgage rate is expected to be in the 2.60 to 4.20 per cent range, while the five-year rate is forecast to be within the 4.30 to 6.20 per cent range. 2

3 Quebec Region Economic and Housing Indicators Labour Market Housing Market Gatineau Montréal Québec Saguenay Sherbrooke Trois Rivières Province of Quebec Canada 2 Emp. Growth SA (%) Unemp. Rate SA (%) Average Weekly Earnings ($) Total Starts Single- Detached Starts Multiple Starts Centris Sales 2 Centris Average Price 2 ($) Q Q ,258 Q Q ,719 Change % % Change Q Q , ,014 7, ,380 Q Q , ,802 7, ,076 Change % % Change Q Q , ,412 Q Q , ,070 1, ,129 Change % % Change Q Q ,206 Q Q ,273 Change % % Change Q Q ,908 Q Q ,290 Change % % Change Q Q ,607 Q Q ,866 Change % % Change December Q ,070 2,673 8,397 14, ,825 December Q ,661 3,110 7,551 14, ,883 Change % % Change December Q ,164 19,539 28,625 99, ,030 December Q ,453 19,671 30,782 94, ,444 Change % % Change Changes to the Unemployment Rate and Employment Growth represent the absolute difference between current rates and the rates for the same period in the previous year. Sources: Statistics Canada (CANSIM), CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey), CREA, Centris Statistics 2 Source for Canada resale housing data is the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The Centris system contains all the listings of Québec real estate brokers. "SA" means Seasonally Adjusted NOTE: Some of the data in this table, such as the Centris sales and average price for Q4, became available after the cut-off date of January 22th As a result, this data was not considered for the forecast. 3

4 Quebec Housing Market Outlook (units and percentage change) (F) 2016(F) Housing Starts: Single 19,549 16,554 16,059 13,144 11,227 12,700 13,700 % Multiple 31,814 31,833 31,308 24,614 27,583 25,800 26,400 % Total 51,363 48,387 47,367 37,758 38,810 38,500 40,100 % Existing Home Markets: Centris Sales 80,027 77,164 77,373 71,198 70,686 72,600 73,400 % Centris Average Price 241, , , , , , ,000 % Quebec Housing Market Outlook (units and percentage change) 2015Q1(F) 2015Q2(F) 2015Q3(F) 2015Q4(F) 2016Q1(F) 2016Q2(F) 2016Q3(F) 2016Q4(F) Housing Starts: Single 12,500 12,700 12,800 13,000 13,500 13,750 13,750 14,000 % Multiple 25,300 25,500 26,000 26,500 26,000 26,300 26,500 27,000 % Total 37,800 38,200 38,800 39,500 39,500 40,050 40,250 41,000 % Existing Home Markets: Centris Sales 72,300 72,500 72,800 73,000 73,300 73,500 73,500 73,500 % Centris Average Price 267, , , , , , , ,500 % The Centris system contains all the listings of Québec real estate brokers. Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey), CREA Some of the data in this table, such as the Centris sales and average price for Q4, became available after the cut-off date of January 22th As a result, this data was not considered for the forecast. All data in this table, except the Centris average price, is seasonally adjusted at annual rates. The Centris average price data is actual. As is the case for the other provinces, the historical average price for the province of Quebec is calculated by dividing the total dollar sales volume by the number of transactions. 4

5 Quebec Region - Housing Ranges Province of Quebec Point High Low Point High Low Housing Starts 38,500 41,500 33,400 40,100 44,100 34,300 Multiple 25,800 27,900 22,500 26,400 29,000 22,700 Single 12,700 13,600 10,900 13,700 15,100 11,600 Centris Sales 72,600 76,300 65,400 73,400 78,100 65,500 Centris Average Price ($) 270, , , , , ,000 Canada Housing Starts 187, , , , , ,000 Multiple 110, ,000 89, , ,000 86,000 Single 76,900 82,000 65,000 74,500 82,000 62,000 MLS Sales 479, , , , , ,000 MLS Average Price ($) 414, , , , , ,000 Source : CMHC The Centris system contains all the listings of Québec real estate brokers. 5

6 Quebec Region Housing - New Construction Housing Starts (F)* % chg (2014/ 2015) 2016(F)* % chg (2015/ 2016) YTD 2014* YTD 2013* % chg (2013/ 2014) Single-Detached Gatineau Multiple 1,424 1, , ,424 1, Total 1,903 1, , ,903 1, Single-Detached 2,677 2, , ,677 3, Montréal Multiple 15,995 14, , ,995 12, Total 18,672 16, , ,672 15, Single-Detached Québec Multiple 3,562 3, , ,562 3, Total 4,449 3, , ,449 4, Single-Detached Saguenay Multiple Total Single-Detached Sherbrooke Multiple , Total 1,128 1, , ,128 1, Single-Detached Trois-Rivières Multiple Total Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) (F) = CMHC * Although point forecasts are provided in this table, please refer to the "Housing Range" table to get the relevant ranges. ** YTD = January - December 6

7 Quebec Region Housing - Resale Market (F)* % chg (2014/2015) 2016(F)* % chg (2015/2016) YTD 2013** YTD 2014** % chg (/) Gatineau Montréal Québec Saguenay Sherbrooke Trois-Rivières Centris Sales 1 3,338 3, , ,544 3, , , , , , Centris Sales 1 35,764 37, , ,491 35, , , , , , Centris Sales 1 6,472 6, , ,273 6, , , , , , Centris Sales 1 1,144 1, , ,185 1, , , , , , Centris Sales 1 1,650 1, , ,665 1, , , , , , Centris Sales 1 1,119 1, , , , , , , , The Centris system contains all the listings of Québec real estate brokers. Sources: CMHC, CREA, Centris Statistics, CMHC Source for the CMA s : Centris Statistics (F) = CMHC * Although point forecasts are provided in this table, please refer to the Housing Range table at the end of this report to get the relevant ranges. ** YTD = January - December 7

8 Quebec Region Housing - Rental Market Vacancy Rate Average Rent 2-Bedroom Units Oct Oct. 2015(P) Oct. 2016(P) Oct Oct. 2015(P) Oct. 2016(P) Gatineau Montréal Québec Saguenay Sherbrooke Trois-Rivières Canada Source: CMHC Fall Rental Market Survey (F) = CMHC 1 All centres 100,000+ 8

9 CMHC Home to Canadians (CMHC) has been Canada's national housing agency for more than 65 years. Together with other housing stakeholders, we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in the world. We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country. For more information, visit our website at or follow us on Twitter, YouTube and Flickr. You can also reach us by phone at or by fax at Outside Canada call or fax to supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for people with disabilities. If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats, call The Market Analysis Centre s (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHC s website. You can view, print, download or subscribe to future editions and get market information ed automatically to you the same day it is released. It s quick and convenient! Go to For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you, visit us today at To subscribe to priced, printed editions of MAC publications, call All rights reserved. CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publication s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results, conclusions, and forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria, and CMHC s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason. Any use of the publication s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows: Source: CMHC (or Adapted from CMHC, if appropriate), name of product, year and date of publication issue. Other than as outlined above, the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or, if acquired by an organization, to users outside the organization. Placing the publication, in whole or part, on a website accessible to the public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted. To use the content of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above or to request permission to reproduce large portions of, or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications, please contact: the Canadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at or For permission, please provide CHIC with the following information: Publication s name, year and date of issue. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into any other language without the prior written permission of. The information, analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information, analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations for which or any of its employees shall incur responsibility. 9

10 Housing market intelligence you can count on FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE n Canadian Housing Statistics n Condominium Owners Report n Housing Information Monthly n Housing Market Outlook, Canada n Housing Market Outlook, Highlight Reports Canada and Regional n Housing Market Outlook, Major Centres n Housing Market Tables: Selected South Central Ontario Centres n Housing Now, Canada n Housing Now, Major Centres n Housing Now, Regional n Monthly Housing Statistics n Northern Housing Outlook Report n Preliminary Housing Start Data n Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports n Rental Market Reports, Major Centres n Rental Market Statistics n Residential Construction Digest, Prairie Centres n Seniors Housing Reports CMHC s Market Analysis Centre e-reports provide a wealth of detailed local, provincial, regional and national market information. s and Analysis Future-oriented information about local, regional and national housing trends. Statistics and Data Information on current housing market activities starts, rents, vacancy rates and much more. Get the market intelligence you need today! Click to view, download or subscribe. HOUSING MARKET INFORMATION PORTAL The housing data you want, the way you want it Information in one central location. Quick and easy access. Neighbourhood level data. cmhc.ca/hmiportal

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