CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

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1 Percent CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics January 216 (November 2 Data) Highlights During November, credit unions picked-up 376, in new memberships, loan balances grew at a 9.8% seasonallyadjusted annualized pace, savings balances fell.2%, firms hired 22, workers, nominal consumer spending increased.3%, and long-term interest rates increased 19 basis points. Third quarter economic growth was revised down to 2.% and rose 2.1% over the last year. At the end of November, CUNA s monthly estimates reported 6,264 CUs in operation, the same number as one month earlier. Year-over-year, the number of credit unions declined by 267, less than the 297 lost in the months ending in November 214. Total credit union assets fell.3% in November, below the.1% rise reported in November of 214. Assets rose.9% during the past year due to a.7% increase in deposits, a 7% increase in borrowings, and a 6.3% increase in capital. The nation s credit unions increased their loan portfolios by.6% in November, less than the.7% pace reported in November 214. Loan balances are up 1.1% during the last months. With loan balances growing faster than assets during the last year, the credit union average loan-toasset ratio reached 6.6%, up from 63% in November 214. Credit union memberships rose.36% in November, up from a.17% gain reported in November 214. Memberships are up 3.8% during the past year due to robust demand for credit, solid job growth and comparatively lower fees and loan interest rates. Credit union loan delinquency rates fell to.81% in November, down from.86% one year earlier due to a stronger economy, lower gas prices and double digit loan growth. Expect credit unions and banks to loosen credit standards in 216 keeping loan growth robust. ECONOMIC, COMPETITIVE AND INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT During November, the economy added 22, jobs, the unemployment rate remained at.%, personal income rose.28%, personal expenditures rose.34%, consumer prices were unchanged, consumer confidence fell, new home sales rose 4.3%, existing home sales fell 1.%, auto sales were unchanged at a recovery high pace, home prices rose.%, and the 1-year Treasury interest rate increased 19 basis points to average 2.26%. Real GDP rose 2% in the third quarter, according to the BEA s third estimate, below the 2.% natural rate of economic growth. The manufacturing sector is facing numerous transitory headwinds: weak overseas growth, an appreciating dollar, low oil prices, financial market volatility and an inventory correction cycle. Fortunately the service sector is doing much better and will drive economic growth of 2.8% in 216. Continued low gas prices will change consumer behavior in 216 as lower gas expenditures loosen budget constraints and freeup cash for other purposes. Moreover, debt burdens as a share of income are the lowest they have been in 3 years. So the combination of low debt and gas payments will boost household spending and improve credit quality. The latter will encourage the gradual relaxation of lending standards. Total Lending Credit union loan balances rose.63% in November, slightly slower than the.68% pace reported in November 214. Driving overall loan growth was strong growth in home equity lines of credit (1.%), unsecured personal loans (1.4%) and new-auto loans (1.1%). November seasonal factors typically subtract.22 percentage points from the underlying trend loan growth as winter weather slows auto and home purchases. Over the last months, total credit union loan balances rose more than 1%, but industry growth rates mask big disparities between large and small credit unions. In the year ending in the third quarter of 2, credit unions with assets greater than $1 billion reported a.9% increase in loan balances, which was up slightly from the similar time period one year earlier. Credit unions with assets less than $2 million reported loan growth of only 2.8% (Figure 1) Credit Union Loan Growth (by Asset size) Q3 2 Q Figure < $2 mil $2-$ $-$1 $1- $ $2- $ $-$1 bil.6.9 >$1 bil

2 $ in Billions Credit Union Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) Credit union consumer installment credit balances (auto, credit card and other unsecured loans) rose.% in November, half the 1.% pace set in November 214. Consumer installment credit grew % over the last year, faster than the 8.% rise in real estate loans (Figure 2). The household debt service ratio (mortgage and consumer debt payments required to remain current on that debt as a percent of disposable income) was 1.3% in the third quarter according to the Federal Reserve, slightly above the record low 1.1% set in the fourth quarter of 214 (Figure 3). The composition of debt service has changed as the consumer debt service ratio rose to.47% while the mortgage debt service ratio fell to 4.6%. Loan Growth Trends November 2 19% 18% Household Debt Service Ratio 19% 18% 2 1 Percent Total Loans Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) Real Estate Secured Loans.% 1.1% 8.% 17% 16% % 14% 13% Recession Debt Service Ratio Financial Obligations Ratio 17% 16% % 14% 13% % % Figure 2 Figure % 1% 9% % 1% 9% Vehicle Loans Auto loans remain credit unions bread and butter loan product with vehicle loan balance growth outpacing the growth in mortgage and business loans. During the last months, vehicle loan balances increased $31.9 billion (13.7%), slightly better than the $28.9 billion increase for first mortgage loans (9.8%) (Figure 4). New-auto loan balances rose a robust 1.1% in November, although slightly less than the 1.3% pace set in November 214, despite November being typically one of the slower months of the year for auto loan originations (Figure ). Strong consumer fundamentals are driving auto loan growth: an improving labor market, low interest rates, rising wage growth, expanding driving-age population, improving construction activity, low gas prices and better household balance sheets. Sources of Loan Growth ($ in Billions) November 214 November 2 Total Loan Growth $73.3 Bln Vehicles 1st Mort. HE/2nd Mort. 2. MBLs.7 All Other 4.3 Year to Date November 2 Total Loan Growth $67.8 Bln. Vehicles 3.4 1st Mort. 2.4 HE/2nd Mort. 3 MBLs 4.9 All Other % 1.%.8%.6%.4%.2%.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% New Auto Loan Seasonal Factors Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec -.13% -.7% -.63% -.32%.4%.9%.23%.7%.3%.44% -.37% -.46% Source: CUNA & NCUA. Figure 4 Figure Vehicle sales remained at the recovery high of 18.2 million units (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate) in November,.8% higher than the 17.2 million pace set in November 214. Sales benefited from the rollout of holiday discounts, according to TrueCar, with average discounts exceeding $3,. However, purchasing a new car or light truck is still not within reach for many consumers, but the tightening labor market, strong job growth and rising wage pressures should help tip the scales for many households to qualify for auto credit in 216. Expect auto sales to fall to 17.2 million units in 216 from the record 17.4 million units in 2. By 218, auto sales will settle down to the inherent sales rate of 16. million units. 2 Credit Union Trends Report

3 Billions of Dollars Real Estate-Secured Lending 1 st Mortgages and Other Real Estate Credit union fixed-rate first mortgage loan balances grew.% in November, greater than the.4% pace set in November 214, despite existing-home sales dropping 1.% in November from October. It is always difficult to decipher why home sales rise or fall in any particular month, but one factor leading to significantly longer closing times in November, according to the National Association of Realtors, was the implementation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau s Know Before You Owe mortgage disclosure rules. The new rules change the disclosure forms to be signed in a mortgage contract. As realtors and lenders become more familiar with the new disclosure forms, closing times will shorten and closing that did not take place in November will be closed in December. From January to November, fixed-rate first mortgage loan balances grew 1%, slightly faster than the 9.4% increase in adjustable-rate mortgage balances and the 9.4% growth of home equity balances (Figure 6). Second mortgage balances continued its multiyear decline (-.2%) as homeowners refinance second mortgage balances into new first mortgage loans. This effect is limiting the growth in overall real estate loan balances to 8.%. The contract interest rate on a 3-year, fixed-rate conventional home mortgage rose to 3.94% in November, from 3.8% in October, but still below the 4.% mark reported in November 214. Since the Federal Reserve initiated the increase in short-term interest rates in December 2, the federal funds interest rate rose 24 basis points by mid-january to reach.36% while the 3-year mortgage rate rose only 3 basis points to reach 3.97%. Long-term interest rates are not rising as fast as short-term interest rates due to capital inflows from the rest of the world and the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and rolling-over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Home prices rose.% in November from October, according to the Core Logic Home Price Index, and 6.3% year-overyear. The Federal Housing Finance Agency purchase-only house price index surpassed its 27 peak in October and rose 6.1% year-over-year in November. National house price appreciation should grow 3-% over the next couple of years due to the tightening labor market pushing up wage growth, rising interest rates pushing hesitant potential homebuyers off the fence, and millennials moving out of their parents basement and forming new households. Percent All Real Estate Loans Growth CU Real Estate Loans Fixed Rate 1 st Mortgages 2 = November Adjustable Rate 1 st Mortgages Home Equity Loans Second Mortgages Credit Union Liquidity Flows Figure 6 Figure 7 Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) Credit union surplus funds fell $7.8 billion, or -2.1%, in November to help fund strong loan demand ($. billion), deposit outflows ($-2.2 billion) and the paying down of borrowings (-$.) (Figure 7). To make-up the loan funding shortfall, capital growth contributed $.4 billion. Credit union surplus funds as a percent of assets fell to 3.% in November, down from 32.9% in November 214, as credit unions partly funded $73.3 billion in new loans with $7. billion of cash and investments. The obverse of the falling surplus funds ratio is the rising loan-to-asset ratio, which reached 6.% in November, the highest level since September 21. According to third quarter NCUA call report data, credit unions yield on surplus funds fell to.92% during the first nine months of 2 a new record low down from 1.21% for the similar period last year due to a greater percentage of cash holdings and shorter maturity investments. Average annualized loan yields fell to 4.66% also a record low during the first nine months of 2, from 4.83% for the similar period in 214 as old higher-rate loans repriced into today s lower interest rates. Yield on asset ratios were unchanged (3.3%) during the year due to the positive mix effect offsetting the negative rate effect. $8 $7 $6 $ $4 $3 $2 $1 $ -$1 -$2 $. -$. $.4 $73.3 -$2.2 -$7.8 -$7. From 1 month ago $.4 $3. From 1 year ago $7.9 Loans Investments Savings borrowings Capital 3 Credit Union Trends Report

4 Basis Points Savings and Assets Credit union savings balances fell.2% in November, the same decline reported in November 214. Savings balances typically decline.2% in November due to recurring seasonal factors. Savings balances are currently growing at a 7.2% seasonally-adjusted annualized growth rate due to falling fuel prices and rising household incomes (Figure 8). Expect savings growth to slow in 216 as interest-rate sensitive members move some of their funds to higher-rate-paying competitors. Credit unions reported a savings inflow of $.4 billion during the last months, a.7% increase. Sixty percent of this inflow ($33.3 billion) was deposited into low-cost regular share accounts and 3% ($16.9 billion) was deposited into share draft accounts (Figure 9). Share certificate accounts growth made up almost 3% of the total growth over the last year as credit unions began raising interest rates to attract and lockdown longer term deposits. Figure 8 CU Savings Growth Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate 18% 17% 16% % 14% 13% % 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % % 17% 16% % 14% 13% % 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Percent Figure 9 Sources of Savings Growth Capital and Other Key Measures The loan delinquency rate (loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans outstanding) rose to.81% in November from the March low of.68%, demonstrating its seasonal pattern (Figure 1). Delinquency rates typically reach their nadir in the first quarter as members use their tax refunds and bonus checks to catch up on any late loan payments. As the year progresses, delinquency rates slowly rise and reach their apex late in the fourth quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the loan delinquency rate is basis points lower than the.86% reported in November 214. Expect loan quality to improve slightly in 216 as the unemployment rate falls below 4.8% during the year. Credit union return-on-asset ratios came in at.79% (annualized) for the first nine months of 2, similar to the rate set during the previous 3 years (Figure 11). Expect ROA to fall in 216 due to tighter margins and rising loan loss provisions Share Drafts Regular Shares Annual YTD Nov MMAs CDs IRAs Recession CU Delinquency Rate Versus Unemployment Rate Unemployment (Left Axis) 1 Delinquency (Right Axis) Net Income (Percent of Average Assets) Figure 1 Figure 11 4 Credit Union Trends Report

5 Credit Unions and Members As of November 2, CUNA estimates 6,264 credit unions were in operation, down 267 from November 214 (Figure ). Year-to-date the number of credit unions fell by 249, slightly slower than the 264 reported in the first eleven months of 214. The annual contraction rate of the credit union industry reached 4.1% in 2, faster than the 3.% set in 2. NCUA s Insurance Report of Activity showed 19 mergers were approved in November with an average asset size of $18.3 million. This is down from the 22 mergers reported in November 214 with an average asset size of $19.8 million. Starting in 24, 46% of the annual decline in the number of credit unions took place in the first half of the year and 4% in the second half (Figure 13). Slightly more mergers in the second half may be attributable to the timing of the fall strategic planning session and credit unions attempting to close merger deals before the end of the year. Comparison of Declines in # of CUs November 2 Actual = 6,264 Annual Net Decline in Number of CUs Number of CUs 4 Figure Annual Declines November to November # of CUs JAN - JUN JUL - DEC % s = JAN - JUN Share of Annual Change % 4% 46% 47% 44% 46% 49% 46% 47% 1% 44% YTD November Declines Annual Declines Figure Figure 13 Credit union memberships grew 376, in November, or.36%, which is much better than the 174, new members, or.17%, added in November 214. Year-to-date credit unions added 3.6 million new members, faster than the 2.8 million members added during the similar period in 214. During the last months, credit unions memberships rose 3.8%, the fastest pace in over 2 years (Figure 14). Total credit union memberships reached million in November, 3. million more than December 214 (Figure ). Rapid U.S. job growth and strong loan demand are two major factors driving the surge in credit union memberships. The U.S. economy added 22, jobs in November and million jobs during the last months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For 216 expect another 2.4 million jobs and credit union membership growth to exceed 3.% Figure Credit Union Membership Growth (Annual Percent Growth) Millions of Members Figure 88.2 Total CU Membership November 2 Actual =. Million Forecast November Credit Union Trends Report

6 National Monthly Credit Union Aggregates CAPITAL/ ($ Billions) (Millions) CREDIT LOAN / ASSET YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS UNIONS SAVINGS RATIO , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,19.2 1, , , , , ,23.3 1, , ,21.2 1, , ,23.4 1, , , , , ,2.1 1, , Credit Union Growth Rates Percent Change Previous Year # OF CUs Delinquency YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS # OF CUs DECLINE Ratio* (4.) (288) 1.28% (3.9) (27) 1.% (4.2) (298).98% (4.3) (31).886% (3.9) (273).89% (4.3) (3).836% (4.4) (31).849% (3.7) (29).82% (3.) (244).82% (3.3) (226).841% (4.) (272).82% (3.7) (24).832% (4.3) (297).86% (4.2) (282).848% (3.9) (262).834% (4.2) (286).738% (4.3) (288).683% (4.) (267).728% (3.9) (26).737% (4.1) (274).74% (4.) (299).77% (4.) (296).779% (4.) (263).776% (4.8) (316).79% (4.1) (267).813% * Loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans. 6 Credit Union Trends Report

7 Distribution of Credit Union Loans Estimated $ (Billions) Outstanding 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL 2 ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* * Member Business Loans Distribution of Credit Union Loans Percent Change From Prior Year 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL 2 ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* (6.) (4.1) (3.6) (3.) (3.1) (2.7) (1.7) (.8) Credit Union Trends Report

8 Percent Annual Growth Rates Total Loans & Installment Credit Total Loans CUCIC $ in Billions CU Loan Portfolio $66.1 $6.1 $8. $87.4 $8.3 $87. $44.1 $11.1 $ % 61.% 6.3% 9.8% $ % 9.3% 9.6% 4.1% 49.8% 1.8% Nov CIC Other $796.6 $ % 7.7% Percent 43 CIC Share of Total Loans at Credit Unions $ Billions 36 Consumer Installment Credit at Credit Unions This report on key CU indicators is based on data from CUNA E&S s Monthly Credit Union Estimates, the Federal Reserve Board, and CUNA Mutual Group Economics. To access this report on the Internet: Sign in at cunamutual.com Go to the Resource Library tab Under Publications heading, select Credit Union Trends Report If you have any questions, comments, or need additional information, please call. Thank you. Steven Rick , Ext CUNA Mutual Group Economics CUNA Mutual Group, 216 All Rights Reserved. CUNA Mutual Group is the marketing name for CUNA Mutual Holding Company, a mutual insurance holding company, its subsidiaries and affiliates. 8 Credit Union Trends Report

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