CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

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1 CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics December (October Data) Highlights During October, credit unions picked up 3, in new memberships, loan balances grew at a.% seasonallyadjusted annualized pace, savings balances rose 1.%, firms hired, workers, nominal consumer spending increased.1%, and long-term interest rates decreased 1 basis points. Third quarter economic growth was revised up to.1% and grew. from the third quarter of. At the end of October, CUNA s monthly estimates reported, CUs in operation, down 3 credit unions from one month earlier. Year-over-year, the number of credit unions declined by 3, more than the lost in the months ending in October. Total credit union assets rose 1.3% in October, slower than the 1.% rise reported in October of. Assets rose. during the past year due to a.% increase in deposits, a 3% increase in borrowings, and a 7% increase in capital. The nation s credit unions increased their loan portfolios by.% in October, less than the 1.% pace reported in October. Loan balances are up 1.% during the last months. Credit union new auto loan balances reached the $1 billion milestone in October for the first time in history. ECONOMIC, COMPETITIVE AND INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT After seven years of the Zero Interest Rate Policy, ZIRP, the Federal Reserve voted on December th to raise their target range for the federal funds interest rate to.-.%. The Fed s statement was upbeat regarding trends for the overall economy and the labor market. Although, Janet Yellen raised concerns that inflation currently at 1.% was still running below their official target of. However, she expects inflation should rise over the next couple of years as transitory factors falling oil prices and a rising exchange rate abate. With wage growth and inflation expected to pick-up over the next year, we believe the Federal Reserve will raise their federal funds interest rate target another.7% to 1.% in. After that barring any negative economic shocks the Fed will increase rates by 1% in both 17 and 1 to bring the federal funds interest rate close to their new neutral rate of 3.%. The pace of interest rate increases this time around will be significantly slower than the 3% per year pace set in 1, the 1.7% per year pace set in 1, and the per year pace set in, due to low actual and expected inflation. Most credit unions will therefore face less interest rate risk during this tightening cycle compared to the aforementioned previous tightening cycles. Total Lending Credit union loan balances rose.% in October, slower than the 1.% pace reported in October. Driving overall loan growth was strong growth in home equity lines of credit (.3%), new-auto loans (1.1%) and used-auto loans (.%). Historically, seasonal factors have a slightly negative impact on October loan growth numbers, so the pace of loan growth is being driven mainly by underlying economic trends. Will rising short-term interest rates lead to falling credit union loan growth in? The answer is a resounding No. Figure 1 shows credit union annual loan growth numbers for the past 3 years with years of tightening Fed policy highlighted in pink. In the years following interest rate increases 1,, and loan growth actually accelerated due to consumers reporting higher confidence and attempting to get out ahead of future interest rate increases. Credit union memberships rose a modest. in October, up from a.1% gain reported in October. Memberships are up.3% during the past year due to robust demand for credit, solid job growth and comparatively lower fees and loan interest rates. Credit union capital-to-asset ratios rose to 1.% in October, up from 1.7% reported one year ago. Credit union loan delinquency rates fell to.7% in October, down from.3% one year earlier due to a stronger economy and double digit loan growth. Expect both credit unions and banks to loosen credit standards in Credit Union Loan Growth (Annual Percent Growth) Figure

2 Percent $ bil (SA) Credit Union Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) Credit union consumer installment credit balances (auto, credit card and other unsecured loans) rose only.% in October, slower than the 1.% pace set in October, due to a slowdown in auto and credit card lending as consumer confidence levels fell following two months of weak job growth. During the last months, credit union consumer installment credit grew.% (Figure ) almost twice as fast as the rest of the market. Outstanding consumer credit rose $. billion for all lenders in October, according to the Federal Reserve (Figure 3), but below the $1. billion monthly average reported over the last months. The rise in the federal funds interest rate will increase credit card interest rates in the near term and to a lesser extent auto loan rates. This will boost credit union yield on assets and net income. Growth in Consumer Installment Credit October Percent CUs.% Consumer Credit Outstanding (monthly change & annual growth rate) 3 Total Market Excl. CUs.% Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics Total Market Excl. CUs & GSLs 3.% Figure Figure 3 Vehicle Loans Credit union new auto loan balances rose 1.1% in October, slower than the.% pace set in October, and increased.% over the last year. On a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis, new auto loan balances rose.% in October (Figure ), down significantly from the pace reported in August. Strong consumer fundamentals are driving auto loan growth: an improving labor market, low interest rates, rising wage growth, expanding driving-age population, improving construction activity, low oil prices and better household balance sheets. The number of new auto loans as a percent of members in offering credit unions the penetration rate rose to.% in the third quarter, up from.% one year earlier Recession Consumer Credit Monthly Change (RHS) Year-over-Year Growth (LHS) % % % % 1% % % % % - CU New Auto Growth Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate % -% -1% -% -% -% -% -1% 1% % % % 1% % % % % - -% -% -% -1% -% -% -% -1% Millions of Units U.S. Vehicles Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 7 1 Source: Autodata Corp. Recession New Auto Sales Inherent Demand Figure Figure Vehicle sales remained at the seasonally-adjusted annualized sales rate recovery high of 1. million units in October, 1% higher than the. million pace set in October (Figure ). We expect to be a record year for new auto sales, coming in at 17. million units. There is still some pent up auto demand of around. million cars and light trucks due to the subpar economic performance during the last 7 years. Expect auto sales to remain at the 17. million pace in, and then declining to 17 million in 17, and. million in 1. By 1, the economy should be to its natural pace of vehicle sales, the natural rate of output, the natural unemployment rate, and the neutral fed funds interest rate. Credit Union Trends Report

3 $ in Billions Real Estate-Secured Lending 1 st Mortgages and Other Real Estate Credit unions originated a record amount of first-mortgage loans in the first nine months of, 3% faster than the similar time period in (Figure ). Credit unions originated $.3 billion of first mortgages and sold $3. billion into the secondary market. Credit unions sold 3.7% of all originations into the secondary market, up from 3.% in, to reduce the interest rate risk exposure from holding fixed-rate long-term real-estate loans. In, credit unions originated.% of all mortgage loans in the U.S., up from.% in 1. The number of first mortgage loans as a percent of members in offering credit unions the penetration rate rose to only.% in the third quarter, up slightly from.3% one year earlier. This indicates credit unions have a great unfilled opportunity in the mortgage market arena. The contract interest rate on a 3-year, fixed-rate conventional home mortgage fell to 3.% in October, from 3.% in September, and below the.% reported in October. By mid-december, mortgage interest rates rose to 3.% in anticipation of the Federal Reserve s interest rate hike. Expect the 3-year mortgage interest rate to increase basis points each quarter during the next year, reaching.% by year-end. We don t expect the interest rate rise to have a significant negative impact on housing demand due to the still historically low level of interest rates in. Rising interest rates will lead to a pullback in refinancing applications, but improving consumer balance sheets and tightening labor market conditions should boost purchase activity. Home prices rose 1.% in October from September, according to the Core Logic Home Price Index, and.% year-overyear. The index is now 3% above the low point in March, and only % below the peak set in April. Home prices are expected to continue rising over the next couple of years, but at a slightly slower pace than what we are currently experiencing due to housing demand growing faster than housing supply. Housing demand is growing because of a decade low inventory-to-sales ratio for housing, a rising number of household formations and the tightening labor market boosting wage growth and in-turn consumer confidence. Furthermore, access to mortgage credit will increase as financial institutions seek to boost revenue. CU Real Estate Lending Activity YTD 1 $.3 $.7 $3. $. $. $1.1 $ Originated $ Sold $ Originated 1 st Mortgages HE/Other Mortgage Source data: NCUA 3 and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics Q3 Q Maturity of Surplus Funds (% of Total) Q3 Q3 Less than 1 Year 1-3 Years 3- Years -1 Years 7. Figure Figure 7 Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) Credit union surplus funds rose in October by $. billion due to a $.7 billion surge in deposits. This deposit surge was caused by October 3th falling on a payday Friday. Credit union surplus funds as a percent of assets rose to 3.% in October, from.% in September to reach $37. billion. The lion s share of surplus funds (.) are invested in federal agency securities, down from. at the end of. The second largest surplus funds category, cash deposits in financial institutions, rose from % in December to.% today. According to third quarter NCUA call report data, 3.% of credit union surplus funds had maturity dates of less than one year, up from 3.% in the third quarter of (Figure 7). Meanwhile, investments with maturities in the -1 year range fell from.% in to 7.% today. The shift to shorter-maturity investments reduces credit unions exposure to falling investment values price risk as interest rates rise. However, currently 1% of credit union investments are classified as available-for-sale (AFS), up from 1% in December 7. AFS securities are exposed to price risk because they must be marked to market each month, but this increase in price risk is offset by the enhanced balance sheet repositioning flexibility and investment liquidity that comes with the ability to sell these securities. 3 Credit Union Trends Report

4 Percent Savings and Assets Credit union savings balances rose 1.% in October, greater than the 1.3% reported in October, due to the month ending on a payroll Friday. Savings balances grew at an % seasonally-adjusted annualized growth rate in October due to falling fuel prices and rising household incomes (Figure ). Asset growth is highly correlated with asset size. Large credit unions (assets > $1 billion) reported assets rising.% in the year ending in the third quarter of, up from.7% in the year ending the third quarter of (Figure ). Credit unions with less than $ million in assets reported a 1% increase in asset size in the year ending in the third quarter, up from. one year earlier. Credit union cost of funds is expected to rise in as the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds interest rate.7% to 1%. Credit unions will follow suit and raise interest rates on share certificates and money market accounts similar to what they did in 1 and. Figure CU Savings Growth Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate 1% 17% % % % % % % 1% % % 7% % % % 3% 1% % % 17% % % % % % % 1% % % 7% % % % 3% 1% % Figure. Credit Union Asset Growth (by Asset size) Third Quarter Third Quarter < $ mil $-$ $-$1 $1- $ 3.. $- $.7.7 $-$1 bil.7. >$1 bil Capital and Other Key Measures The credit union system s net capital-to-asset ratio rose to % in the third quarter, up from 1.% in the third quarter of, and the highest level since 7, according to recently released NCUA call report data. Every asset size category reported rising capital ratios over the last year as capital grew faster than assets (Figure 1). One factor driving strong capital growth is the rising loan-to-share ratio. Credit unions now loan out 77. of all savings deposits, up from 7% in October. The credit union loan net charge-off rate fell to.% in September, down from.7% in September (Figure ), which is the lowest charge-off rate since the third quarter of 7. The charge-off rate historically falls to its lowest level for the year in the third quarter due to rapid loan growth over the summer months. We expect the charge-off rate to increase basis points to.1% in the fourth quarter as loan growth slows and delinquent loans rise Figure 1 Net Capital-to-Assets (by Asset size) < $ mil $-$ $-$1 $1- $ Credit Union Trends Report Third Quarter Third Quarter..1 $- $ $-$1 bil >$1 bil % % % % 1% % % 7% % % % 3% 1% CU Net Chargeoff Rate Versus Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Left Axis) Net Chargeoff Rate (Right Axis) % 7:1 :1 :1 1:1 :1 :1 :1 :1 :1 Source: Department of Labor, NCUA,CUNA Figure 1.% 1.3% % 1.%.%.%.7%.%.%.%.3%..1%.%

5 Percent Credit Unions and Members As of October, CUNA estimates, credit unions were in operation, down 3 from October (Figure ). Year-to-date the number of credit unions fell by, slightly faster than the reported in the first ten months of. NCUA s Insurance Report of Activity showed 1 mergers were approved in October with an average asset size of $. million. This is down from the mergers reported in October with an average asset size of $ million. Just released third quarter NCUA call report data shows 7 credit unions with assets in excess of $1 billion and 31 credit unions with assets greater than $ million, but less than $1 billion (Figure ). The greater than $1 billion asset category represents.% of all credit unions, but more than 7% of the credit union system s assets and % of the loans. The median asset size of a U.S. credit union rose to $ million, up from $.1 million in the third quarter of. Comparison of Declines in # of CUs October Actual =, Number of CUs Annual Declines October to October 3, 3,,,7 Number of CUs (by Asset size) Third Quarter Third Quarter Figure ,, 1, 1, 1,7 1, YTD October Declines Annual Declines Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics Figure Figure < $ mil $-$ $-$1 $1- $ 3 33 $- $ $-$1 bil >$1 bil Credit union memberships grew a modest 3, in October, or., which is much better than the 7, new members, or.%, added in October. October s seasonal factors typically shave off. percentage points from the underlying trend membership growth rate. Year-to-date credit unions added 3. million new members, (Figure ), faster than the. million members added during the similar period in. Total credit union memberships reached.3 million in October,.3% more than October and the fastest pace in more than years. Just released third quarter NCUA call report data shows credit unions with assets greater than $1 billion reported membership growth of.% during the months ending in the third quarter of, slightly faster than the.1% reported one year earlier (Figure ) Figure Comparison of Membership Increases Members in Millions.. 1. October Actual =.3 Million Annual Increase October to October..3 YTD October Increase Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics. Annual Increase Figure Credit Union Membership Growth (by Asset size) Third Quarter Third Quarter < $ mil $-$ $-$1 $ $ $- $.. $-$1 bil..1 >$1 bil Credit Union Trends Report

6 National Monthly Credit Union Aggregates CAPITAL/ ($ Billions) (Millions) CREDIT LOAN / ASSET YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS UNIONS SAVINGS RATIO , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,...., , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,. 1,..3 1., ,1.3 1, , ,1. 1, , ,. 1,. 7..3, ,. 1,17..., ,.3 1,...3, ,. 1,...1, ,17.1 1,. 1..3, Credit Union Growth Rates Percent Change Previous Year # OF CUs Delinquency YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS # OF CUs DECLINE Ratio* (.) (1) 1.% (.) () (3.) (7) 1.% (.) ().% (.3) (31).% (3.) (73).% (.3) (3).3% (.) (31).% (3.7) () (3.) () (3.3) ().1% (.) (7) (3.7) () (.3) (7).% (.) ().% (3.) ().3% (.) ().73% (.3) ().3% (.) (7) (3.) ().737% (.1) (7).7% (.) (3).71% (.) (3).7% (.) () (.) (3).7% * Loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans. Credit Union Trends Report

7 Distribution of Credit Union Loans Estimated $ (Billions) Outstanding 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* * Member Business Loans Distribution of Credit Union Loans Percent Change From Prior Year 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* (.1) (.) (.1) (3.) (3.) (3.1) (.7) (1.7) (.) Credit Union Trends Report

8 Percent Annual Growth Rates Total Loans & Installment Credit Total Loans CUCIC $ in Billions CU Loan Portfolio 7 1 Oct CIC Other $73. $7. $.1 $.1 $. $7. $.3 $7. $.1 $.1 $7. 1.% 1.%.3% $..7%.3%.%.%.% 7.7%.1%.% 1.% Percent 3 CIC Share of Total Loans at Credit Unions $ Billions 3 Consumer Installment Credit at Credit Unions This report on key CU indicators is based on data from CUNA E&S s Monthly Credit Union Estimates, the Federal Reserve Board, and CUNA Mutual Group Economics. To access this report on the Internet: Sign in at cunamutual.com Go to the Resource Library tab Under Publications heading, select Credit Union Trends Report If you have any questions, comments, or need additional information, please call. Thank you. Steven Rick.3., Ext.. CUNA Mutual Group Economics CUNA Mutual Group, All Rights Reserved. CUNA Mutual Group is the marketing name for CUNA Mutual Holding Company, a mutual insurance holding company, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Credit Union Trends Report

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