OIL & ENERGY INDUSTRY IN TURKEY. November 2010

Transcription

1 OIL & ENERGY INDUSTRY IN TURKEY November 2010

2 Members Altınbaş Petrol ve Ticaret A.Ş. PETROL OFİSİ A.Ş. FIELD OF ACTIVITIES Belgin Madeni Yağlar BP Petrolleri A.Ş. BP Gaz A.Ş. DELTA Akaryakıt Tic. A.Ş. ERK Petrol Yatırımları A.Ş. MOBIL Oil Türk A.Ş. Petline Petrol Ürünleri A.Ş. Shell & Turcas Petrol A.Ş. The SHELL Company of TURKEY Ltd. Shell Gaz Ticaret ve Sanayi A.Ş. TOTAL Oil Türkiye A.Ş. TURCAS Petrol A.Ş. Turkuaz Petrol Ürünleri A.Ş. FUELS (Black and white products) LPG, (Bulk, bottled and auto gas) LUBES AVIATION FUELS MARINE FUELS

3 Outline GENERAL OVERVIEW OF ENERGY SECTOR IN TURKEY Legislative structure Market Review TURKISH OIL INDUSTRY Demand & Supply Refining, Logistics &Marketing EU ALIGNMENT PROCESS AND ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS EXPECTATIONS and EXPANSION OPPORTUNITIES

4 TURKEY Energy Market Legislation Turkey has incorporated numerous Laws and Regulations in line with EU accession programme. Electricity and Natural Gas Market Laws (2001) Petroleum Market Law (December 2003) LPG Market Law (April 2004) Petroleum Law ( in the parliament). These laws essentially drive the energy sector towards a fully liberalized market structure Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) has been established at the end of 2001 to regulate all activities in the Gas, Power and Oil Products Markets.

5 Primary Energy Consumption Of Turkey (Million Tons of Oil Equivalent) ,2 20,7 8,8 Primary Energy Consumption Of Turkey (MTOE) 9,6 7,8 22, ,6 7,1 8,7 9,2 11,1 7 25,5 5,4 7,6 21,8 21,2 13,1 14,4 15,6 18,8 19,9 24,2 27,4 29, ,6 29,5 31,1 29,9 30,6 31, ,5 30,5 32,3 32,0 8 21,8 10, ,1 9,9 28,8 8,0 31,0 31,6 7,5 7,5 30,4 30,0 32,4 32,5 Turkey s Primary Energy Mix Coal 30% Hydro 7% Natural Gas 32% Natural gas is the fastest growing fuel in Turkey s energy product since Crude Supply (Million Tons, %) Oil 31% Oil Natural Gas Coal Hydro İmport; ; 86% Domestic; ; 14% Source: BP Statistical Review Source: EMRA 2009 Report 5

6 TURKEY Energy in brief Turkey is aiming to reduce its high dependency on energy imports through diversification and by increasing utilization of domestic resources. Exploration efforts in the Black Sea have increased; hydro and coal consumption is further encouraged. New Petroleum Law to encourage new exploration incentives Turkey s aspiration is to become an energy bridge between major oil and gas producing countries of the Middle East and Caspian, and the consumer markets in Europe. Turkey's port of Ceyhan is an important outlet for current Iraqi oil exports. Azeri oil through Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) has been active in operation since late Samsun Ceyhan pipeline project aims to connect oil sources in Black Sea to Ceyhan area. Nabucco pipe line project aims to deliver Caspian natural gas to Europe through Turkey..

7 Oil Demand & Trends Total size of oil industry in Turkey is 60 Billion $ Source : Tüpraş

8 Trends In Fuels Milyon Ton In 2009 total fuels consumption decreased by 7,4% to 17,7 million tons. In 2010 January October period the decrease goes on with 5,9 % 20,0 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 % - 1,8 % 8,4 % 0,1 % -7,4 0,5 0,4 1,0 0,7 0,6 2,1 2,3 1,3 1,0 0,5 0,3 1,6 1,4 3,9 3,7 3,4 2,4 2,6 2,3-5,9 % 2,3 3,8 3,8 2,7 2,6 0,2 2,9 2,7 2,3 2,9 1,4 3,4 0,6 0,2 3,6 2,9 1,3 0,2 0,7 1,7 1,6 4,0 3,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,5 3,0 6,0 9,5 9,7 10,5 10,4 10,6 11,4 11,1 10,1 4,0 8,2 8,4 7,6 7,1 2,0 0,0 Off Road Diesel Diesel (10 ppm) Total Gasoline Types Fuel Oil N: 6 Heating Oil

9 Trends In Automotive Fuels Million Ton In 2009 total automotive fuels consumption decreased by 2,3% to 18 million tons. 20,0 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 1,3 1,2 4,0 3,7 0,0 0,0 8,2 8,4 1,1 1,1 3,6 2,9 0,0 0,0 9,5 9,7 % 14,0 % 0,1 % -2,3 % 3,5 2,0 2,1 2,3 1,6 1,8 1,6 2,6 2,3 2,3 2,6 2,9 2,7 2,3 2,9 1,3 0,2 0,7 3,4 10,5 10,4 10,6 11,4 11,1 10,1 0,1% 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,0 1,5 1,9 2,0 4,8 4,5 0,0 Gasoil Low Sulphur Gasoil Total Gasolines LPG Autogas

10 Milyon Ton Trends In Automotive Fuels Diesel consumption has seen a fall in 2009 only. Gasoline consumption is decreasing Auto LPG is a strong substitutee for gasoline. Milyon M 3 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 DIESEL CONSUMPTION 2,7 3,4 1,6 0,2 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 13,5 13,2 12,4 12,3 12,5 11,2 11,5 9,7 10,0 4,0 11,9 1,4 % 2,9 3,6 9,0 8,4 GASOLINE & Auto LPG CONSUMPTION 6,0 Off Road Diesel Diesel (10 ppm) 5,0 100% 90% 4,0 80% 70% 3,0 60% 50% 2,0 40% 30% 1,0 20% 0,0 10% 0% Total Gasoline Types LPG Otogaz Total Gasoline Types LPG Otogaz Source: GDPA & PETDER

11 Thousands Trends In Black Products & Lubes Milyon Ton 6,0 BLACK PRODUCTS 5,0 4,0 3,0 % - 11 % 5 % - 30 Heating Oil 22% 2,0 51,1% 1,0 0,0 Fuel Oil N: 6 78% Fuel Oil N: 6 Heating Oil Source: GDPA & PETDER Chemicals LUBRICANTS Marine Lubricants + Grease Gear Lubricants and Transmission Fluids Industrial Lubricants Engine Lubricants 2010 Jan - August Endüstriyel Yağlar 30% Marine Lubes + Gress 10% Chemicals 8% Gear & Transmission Fluids 8% Engine Lubs 44%

12 Turkish Fuel Industry In Numbers Fuels Market Players 4 Refineries 51 Distributors 102Storage Facilities Fuel Stations Total Employment > Total Yearly Revenues 75 Billion TL Yearly Total Taxes/Duties Colected > 35 Billion TL LPG Market Players 64 Distributor 83 Storage Facilities Autogas Stations Cylinder Retailers

13 Turkish Fuel Industry In Numbers Yearly Consumption (Million Tons)* White Products (Gasolines, gasoils, kerosene,...,etc.) 16,3 15,3 15,7 Black Products (Fuel Oils) 2,6 2,7 1,9 LPG 3,5 3,4 3,6 * Tax free and transit sales excluded. Distributors Storage Storage Capacity Bounded warehouse storage (Tax free) m 3 Domestic terminals & depots m 3 LPG Storage Capacity (m 3 ) (Refineries excluded)

14 Turkey- Natural Gas Pipelines Russia WCBS 1&2 Azeri Gas (Shah Deniz) Russia - Blue Stream Turkmeni Gas * No field development yet for Turkmeni gas Algeria LNG + Nigeria LNG Iran Source: BOTAS Natural Gas Supply- Operational Natural Gas Supply- Contracted Natural Gas Supply- Under Discussion

15 OUTCOMES OF LIBERILASATION PROCESS OIL INDUSTRY OIL INDUSTRY IN TURKEY HAS SUCCESFULLY ADAPTED LIBERALISATION In January 1st 2005 oil products / LPG distribution companies assign ceiling or suggested prices Pump prices are published at EMRA web sites RESTRICTIONS ON OIL IMPORTS HAVE BEEN REMOVED. LICENSING PERIOD HAS BEEN SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETED. 4 Refineries, 51 distributors, dealers, 241 lube oil licenses All non-licensed players have been pushed out of market IMPORTANT STEPS TOWARDS ALIGNMENT WITH EU REGULATIONS Market liberalization (free movement of goods) Fuels specifications adopted Compulsory Oil Stocks (90 Days)

16 OUTCOMES / RESULTS OF NEW LEGISLATIVE PROGRESS SUCCESSFULL PRIVATISATION AND INCREASING FOREIGN INVESTMENTS Successful privatization of refineries, price for 51% ownership doubled in two years Increasing foreign investment/interest in Turkish oil market Shell Turcas JV OMV bought Petrol Ofisi LUKOIL bought all shares of AKPET company, Interest in new large scale projects (Plans for a new refinery, new pipeline) IMPROVED COMPETETIVENESS & TRANSPARENCY 51 Distribution companies Higher quality of service at the pump stations New products in market (98 octane, low sulfur diesel, fully unleaded gasoline, Biofuels) Highly competitive industry (campaigns, promotions etc) IMPROVED OPERATIONAL SAFETY, IMPROVED TECHNICAL STANDARDS AT STATIONS AND TERMINALS GSM (Regulation for operational health & safety) HIGHER LEVEL PARTICIPATION OF INDUSTRY ORGANISATIONS IN LEGISLATIVE PROCESS

17 EU LEGISLATIONS STILL TO BE ADAPTED (1) COMPULSORY STOCKS DIRECTIVE (COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2009/119/EC ) Convergence between the Community and the IEA system. Net imports instead of inland consumption; possible derogation for indigenous production Security of supply and tradebility Central Stockholding Agencies Total oil stocks maintained should be at least 90 days of average daily net imports or 61 days of average daily inland consumption by 31 December 2012 FUEL QUALITY DIRECTIVE (COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2009/30/EC ) Sulfur Content of Diesel Fuels from january1, 2011 should be 10 ppm Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy from fuel and energy supplied to be reduced by 10%, by December Reporting starts from January 1st, % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the context of a global agreement and a 20 % reduction unilaterally., by Biofuels: Sustainability Criteria

18 EU LEGISLATIONS STILL TO BE ADAPTED (2): RENEWABLES DIRECTIVE (Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of energy from renewables) The share of energy from renewable sources to increase 20% by 2020 Current EU average 8,5%; Turkey 5% 10% share of green fuels in transport. National Action Plans must (have) be(en) presented by June AIR QUALITY DIRECTIVE (2008/50/EC) Merges four directives related with air quality to reduce exposure to fine particles PM 2.5 in urban areas by an average of 20% by 2020 STAGE II Vapour Recovery (2009/126/EC) Petrol stations (new >500m3; existing >3000 m3) to employ stage II Vapor recovery systems

19 ADAPTED EU LEGISLATION; OUTCOMES / RESULTS YET TO BE SEEN : Environmental Act (2678) Imdemnification Of Damages at Coasts From Petroleum and Other Harmful Substances Act (5312) ADR - Carriage Of Dangerous Goods On Roads, Railroads, Inland Waters Directive For The Fire Protection Of The Buildings, SEVESO Directive - (Industrial Plants to be Ready For Big Accidents/Disasters) Environmental Impact Analysis Directive Waste Management Directives Management of Chemicals Directives Management of Sea and Coast Directives Water Quality Directives, Land Quality Directives,

20 SUMMARY GENERAL FUTURE TRENDS IN OIL INDUSTRY (1) DIESEL FUEL AND LUBES ARE THE GROWING SEGMENTS LPG HAS SUSTAINED MARKET SHARE DUE TO AUTOGAS AUTOMOTIVE FUELS SUSTAINED GROWTH DURING ECONOMIC CRISES DOWNSTREAM MARKET STILL DRIVES ATTRACTION REFINERY INVESTMENT INITIATIVES LOGISTICS TO BECOME CRITICAL ITEM IN THE DOWNSTREAM BUSINESSES FOR YEARS TO COME TAXATION IS A MAJOR ISSUE DRIVING FUTURE GROWTH EU MEMBERSHIP PROCESS AND FULL COMPLIENCE WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT IN THE INDUSTRY,MOSTLY IN THE REFINING BUSINESS 20

21 Thank you