UK Yearbook 2013 Cattle

Transcription

1 UK Yearbook 2013 Cattle

2 EBLEX Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board Stoneleigh Park Kenilworth Warwickshire CV8 2TL Tel: Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board All rights reserved. While the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, operating through its EBLEX division, seeks to ensure that the information contained within this document is accurate at the time of printing, no warranty is given in respect thereof and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused (including that caused by negligence) or suffered directly or indirectly in relation to information and opinions contained in or omitted from this document. EBLEX is a division of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB). ISBN

3 Contents EBLEX UK Yearbook 2013 Cattle 1. Introduction Marketing Chain 2.1 Meat balance sheet, UK, Product fl ows in the beef marketing chain Livestock Numbers Page 3.1 Density of beef cows, June Cattle numbers by category, UK, June Cattle numbers by region, UK, June Cattle holdings and average herd size by region, UK, June Beef cow holdings by herd size and region, UK Slaughterings and Production 4.1 Red meat production, UK, Trends in red meat production, UK, Cattle slaughtering, UK, Cattle slaughtering by region, UK, Changes in regional share of cattle slaughtering, UK, Cattle average carcase weights, UK, Liveweight/deadweight cattle marketings, GB, Beef and veal production by region, UK,

4 Contents Page 5. Consumption 5.1 Meat consumption, UK, Trends in meat consumption, UK, Per capita meat consumption, UK, Self-sufficiency rates, UK, Household expenditure on food and drink, UK, Share of expenditure on main food groups, UK, Changes in source of retail meat purchases, UK, Per capita beef consumption by region, UK, Household expenditure on beef by region, UK, Retail expenditure profile for beef, UK, Livestock and Meat Prices 6.1 Deadweight cattle prices, GB, Deadweight cattle prices by region, GB, Seasonality of beef prices, GB, Liveweight cattle prices, GB, Rearing calf prices, England and Wales, Store cattle prices, England and Wales, Farm to retail beef price spreads, GB, Imports and Exports 7.1 Volume and value of beef imports, UK, Imports of fresh/frozen beef by source, UK, Imports of processed beef and beef offal by source, UK, Imports of beef by product, UK, Volume and value of cattle and beef exports, UK, Exports of fresh/frozen beef by destination, UK,

5 Contents 8. Abattoirs Page 8.1 Red meat abattoir numbers by type, England, Red meat abattoirs by size, England, Size profile of abattoirs slaughtering cattle, England, Auction Markets 9.1 Auction market throughputs, GB, Auction market centres by region, GB, Auction markets held by region, GB, Auction markets selling finished cattle by size, GB, Auction markets selling finished cattle by size, England, Auction markets selling finished cattle by size, Wales, Auction markets selling finished cattle by size, Scotland, Market share of largest auction markets selling prime cattle, GB, Carcase Classification 10.1 Percentage distribution of prime beef carcases, GB, Percentage distribution of prime beef carcases by conformation and fat class, GB, Percentage change in distribution of prime beef carcases, GB, Percentage change in prime beef carcases meeting target specification, GB, Notes

6 Introduction Introduction The UK yearbook for 2013 highlights another 12 months of improved fortunes for the English beef industry. The upwards trend in cattle prices seen throughout 2011 continued in 2012, with the pressure on prices continuing to come from the underlying contraction in supply, both domestically and on the global market, and robust domestic demand, despite challenging economic circumstances. With R4L steers in GB at an overall average of 350.3p/kg on a deadweight (dw) basis the highest on record this represented an uplift of 11 per cent on 2011 levels and up 26 per cent on 2010 levels. In 2012, UK prime cattle slaughterings totalled 1.97 million head. This was seven per cent lower than in Numbers were particularly tight in the first half of the year, with the decline in young bull slaughterings notable, as high cereal prices in recent years has put pressure on bull finishing margins. As a result of lower cattle supplies, beef and veal production in 2012 was considerably lower than in the year earlier. With tight global supplies, export demand continued to be robust. However, growth on the notable export volumes of 2011 was curtailed as a result of domestic availability and high prices. At 120,000 tonnes, volumes were down 16 per cent on 2011 levels, but still represented a nine per cent uplift on shipments in The trade was valued at almost 417 million. Although lower than last year, again this represents a significant uplift on 2010 levels. Offal exports in 2012 continued to perform strongly and increased 10 per cent on the year to 12,200 tonnes. The offal trade was worth 12.9 million, up five per cent on the year but representing a staggering 45 per cent uplift on the return in Imports were virtually unchanged in 2012 at 236,000 tonnes. Supplies from non-eu markets were lower and represented just 10 per cent of the UK import requirement in 2012 compared with almost a quarter five years ago. Prime cattle supplies are expected to increase marginally in The small rise is as a result of increased calf registrations at the end of 2011 and early Although total calf registrations in 2012 were fractionally higher on the year, beef calf registrations, male and female, were lower, a trend that has implications for future production of high quality beef. The contents of the 2013 UK yearbook provide an overview of facts and figures from the beef and sheep meat sectors during We hope it serves as a useful reference guide for industry and other interested stakeholders. 4

7 Marketing Chain 2.1 Meat balance sheet, UK, Beef and Veal (000 tonnes) Production Imports (a) (Fresh/frozen) (286) (294) (Processed) (117) (103) Exports (a) Total consumption 1,130 1,169 1,147 1,145 Note: Total supplies of meat available for consumption, including imported processed meat. Net production figures are for standard 52-week years. (a) Total imports and exports including processed meat. Includes re-exported beef. All fresh meat and processed products, have been converted to carcase weight equivalent. Source: AHDB/EBLEX 2.2 Product flows in the beef marketing chain 2012 (Volumes are cwe) Exc. from food chain 10,000 head Prime cattle slaughterings 1.97 million head Cows and bull disposals 652,000 head Calf disposals 144,00 head Value of prod 2,846 million Cows and bull slaughter 642,000 head Calf slaughter 74,000 head (recorded) 70,000 (est unrecorded) Liveweight sales 22% Prime cattle = 18% Cows/bulls = 39% 0.60 million head 621 million Slaughtered production Total: 885,000 tonnes Prime cattle: 682,000 tonnes Cows/bulls: 199,000 tonnes Calves: 4,000 tonnes Deadweight sales 78% Prime cattle = 82% Cows/bulls = 61% 2.00 million head 2,225 million Meat exports Total: 147,000 tonnes Carcase: 137,000 tonnes Processed: 10,000 tonnes Total: 417 million Wholesalers/depots/ traders Total beef & veal usage 1,145 million tonnes 7,248 million Meat imports Total: 406,000 tonnes Carcase: 292,000 tonnes Processed: 115,000 tonnes Total: 1,139 million Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board All rights reserved. No part of this table may be reproduced or transmitted in any form by any means without the prior written consent of the proprietor. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this table, no warranty is given as to its accuracy, nor liability accepted for any loss or damage caused by reliance upon any statement in or omission from this table. 5

8 Livestock Numbers 3.1 Density of beef cows, June 2010 Number per 100 hectares < >5 Source: Defra 6

9 Livestock Numbers 3.2 Cattle numbers by category, UK, June (000 head) Source: Defra Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Female cattle aged 2 years or more 4,307 4,350 4,291 4,216 Breeding herd (cattle which have calved): 3,482 3,503 3,489 3,469 Dairy herd 1,857 1,847 1,814 1,812 Beef herd 1,626 1,657 1,675 1,657 Other female cattle (not calved or in calf for first time): Dairy Beef Female cattle aged between 1 and 2 years: 1,404 1,406 1,378 1,398 Dairy Beef Female cattle less than 1 year 1,495 1,495 1,517 1,537 All male cattle: 2,819 2,862 2,747 2,749 2 years and over to 2 years 1,070 1,071 1,042 1,021 Under 1 year 1,339 1,366 1,330 1,369 Total cattle and calves 10,025 10,112 9,933 9,900 7

10 Livestock Numbers 3.3 Cattle numbers by region, UK, June (000 head) Dairy cows Beef cows Total cattle and calves England , , , , , , , , , ,373 Wales , , , , ,113 Scotland , , , , ,788 N Ireland , , , , ,625 Source: Defra 8

11 Livestock Numbers 3.4 Cattle holdings and average herd size by region, UK, June No. of dairy cow holdings Average dairy herd size No. of beef cow holdings Average beef herd size Total cattle and calf holdings England , , , , , , , , ,527 Wales , , , , , , , , ,635 Scotland , , , , , , , , ,628 N Ireland , , , , , , , , ,461 Note: 2012 data not available at time of printing. Note: Dairy herd sizes are based on number of holdings with dairy cattle rather than number of registered dairy producers. Source: Defra 9

12 Livestock Numbers 3.5 Beef cow holdings by herd size and region, UK 14% England (June 2011) 27,459 beef cow holdings 12% 42% % 15% Wales (June 2011) 9,733 beef cow holdings 10% 3% 39% % 33% Scotland (June 2011) 9,114 beef cow holdings 14% 16% 24% % 25% Northern Ireland (June 2011) 15,389 beef cow holdings 5% 1% 24% Source: Defra 45% 10

13 Slaughterings and Production 4.1 Red meat production, UK, (000 tonnes) Beef and veal Lamb and mutton Pork Bacon (a) Offal (a) Includes a small quantity of meat which is subsequently processed into cooked ham. (b) From 2010 pork and bacon production is no longer split and only total pig meat is reported. (c) Excludes offal. Source: Defra Total red meat (c) , , , (b) , (b) , (b) , Trends in red meat production, UK, tonnes 1,400 1,200 1, Source: Defra Beef and veal Lamb and mutton Pig meat 11

14 Slaughterings and Production 4.3 Cattle slaughtering, UK, (000 head) Prime cattle Cows and bulls Calves Total cattle and calves , , , , , , , , , , , ,681 Note: OTMS replaced by the OCDS (only for cattle born before August 1996) which ended in Source: Defra 4.4 Cattle slaughtering by region, UK, (000 head) UK England Wales Scotland N Ireland ,428 1, ,632 1, ,513 1, ,710 1, ,838 1, ,681 1, Source: Defra 12

15 Slaughterings and Production 4.5 Changes in regional share of cattle slaughtering, UK, % % 2% 63% England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland 16% % 6% 60% England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Source: Defra 4.6 Cattle average carcase weights, UK, (kg dw) Steers Heifers Young bulls Prime cattle Source: Defra 13

16 Slaughterings and Production 4.7 Liveweight/deadweight cattle marketings, GB, % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Defra, AHDB/EBLEX Liveweight Deadweight 4.8 Beef and veal production by region, UK, (000 tonnes) UK England Wales Scotland N Ireland Source: Defra, AHDB/EBLEX 14

17 Consumption 5.1 Meat consumption, UK, (000 tonnes) Beef and veal Lamb Pig meat Poultry Total meat , ,392 1,769 4, , ,517 1,750 4, , ,516 1,784 4, , ,513 1,911 4, , ,560 1,963 4, , ,603 1,986 5,010 Note: Total supplies of meat available for consumption, both in and outside the home. Includes imported meat products. Source: Defra 5.2 Trends in meat consumption, UK, ,500 2,000 '000 tonnes 1,500 1, Source: Defra Beef and veal Lamb Pig meat Poultry 15

18 Consumption 5.3 Per capita meat consumption, UK, (kg per person) Beef and veal Lamb Pig meat Poultry Total meat Note: Includes meat in meals eaten both in and outside the home. Includes imported meat products. Source: Defra 5.4 Self-sufficiency rates, UK, (%) Beef and veal Lamb Pig meat Poultry Total meat Source: AHDB/EBLEX 16

19 Consumption 5.5 Household expenditure on food and drink, UK, (Average pence per person per week) Total food and drink 1,844 2,386 2,450 2,492 Total food 1,795 2,338 2,399 2,441 Total drink Meat, poultry and meat products Bread, cereals and cereal products Vegetables, incl potatoes Milk, cheese and eggs Sugar, preserves and confectionery Fruit Fish Oils and fats Other food Note: Drink does not include alcoholic beverages. Source: ONS 5.6 Share of expenditure on main food groups, UK, % 2% 5% 15% 24% 5% 12% Meat and poultry Vegetables Sugar, preserves and confectionary Fish Other food 14% 14% Bread and cereals Milk, cheese and eggs Fruit Oils and fats Source: ONS 17

20 Consumption 5.7 Changes in source of retail meat purchases, UK, % 2.5% 4.7% 0.3% 11.3% 75.0% 3.9% Top 5 multiples Freezer centres Total independents & symbols Other retailers (non grocers) Hard discounters Other multiples Total butchers % 2.6% 5.4% 0.4% 9.5% 72.6% Top 5 multiples Freezer centres Total independents & symbols Other retailers (non grocers) 4.5% Hard discounters Other multiples Total butchers Source: Kantar Worldpanel 18

21 Consumption 5.8 Per capita beef consumption by region, UK, 2011 kg per person per year g per person per week United Kingdom England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Note: Carcase meat only. Excludes meat in meals outside the home. Source: EFS 5.9 Household expenditure on beef by region, UK, /per person/per week England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Note: Carcase meat only. Excludes meat in meals outside the home. Source: EFS 19

22 Consumption 5.10 Retail expenditure profile for beef, UK, % 2012 Fresh/frozen beef 2,029 million 3% 37% 22% 24% Mince Steaks Roasts Stewing Other 14% 10% 2012 Processed beef 1,135 million 4% 37% 23% 12% Chilled ready meals Sliced cooked beef Burgers and grills Fresh pre-packed hot pies Frozen ready meals Beef frozen pies/puddings Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 52 w/e 20 Jan

23 Livestock and Meat Prices 6.1 Deadweight cattle prices, GB, Steers Young bulls (p per kg) R4L Overall R4L Overall Heifers Cull cows (p per kg) R4L Overall -O4L Overall Source: AHDB/EBLEX 21

24 Livestock and Meat Prices 6.2 Deadweight cattle prices by region, GB, (p per kg) Steers Young bulls Heifers Cull cows England and Wales Scotland Source: AHDB/EBLEX 6.3 Seasonality of beef prices, GB, p per kg dw Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Based on GB monthly deadweight cattle prices for steers. Source: AHDB/EBLEX 22

25 Livestock and Meat Prices 6.4 Liveweight cattle prices, GB, (p per kg) All prime cattle Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS Steers Young bulls Heifers Cull cows Rearing calf prices, England and Wales, Friesian/Holstein X Hereford X Continental X ( per head) Bulls Heifers Bulls Heifers Bulls Heifers Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS 23

26 Livestock and Meat Prices 6.6 Store cattle prices, England and Wales, Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS 24 Yearlings 18 Months ( per head) Steers Heifers Steers Heifers Friesian/Holstein X Hereford X Continental X Farm to retail beef price spreads, GB, (p per kg) Ave. farm price Ave. retail price (a) Actual price spread Producer share of retail price (%) Others share of retail price (%) (b) (a) Retail prices converted to an untrimmed carcase equivalent and adjustment made for drip loss. (b) This is the share received by the rest of supply chain, including retailers, processors and wholesalers. Source: AHDB/EBLEX

27 Imports and Exports 7.1 Volume and value of beef imports, UK, Fresh/frozen Processed Offal (000 tonnes) ( million) (000 tonnes) ( million) (000 tonnes) ( million) Note: Volumes are shipped product weight. Source: GTIS 7.2 Imports of fresh/frozen beef by source, UK, (000 tonnes) Fresh/frozen beef and veal of which: bone-in boneless Note: Volumes are shipped product weight. Source: GTIS frozen fresh/chilled of which from: EU Irish Republic Netherlands Germany Poland Spain Non-EU Uruguay Australia Namibia Brazil New Zealand Argentina

28 Imports and Exports 7.3 Imports of processed beef and beef offal by source, UK, (000 tonnes) Corned beef of which from: Brazil France Argentina Other processed beef of which from: Irish Republic Denmark Beef offal of which from: Irish Republic Germany Note: Volumes are shipped product weight. Source: GTIS 7.4 Imports of beef by product, UK, % 2% 31% 21% 42% Chilled boneless Frozen boneless Chilled bone-in Frozen bone-in Processed Note: Volumes are shipped product weight. Source: GTIS 26

29 Imports and Exports 7.5 Volume and value of cattle and beef exports, UK, Fresh/frozen beef and veal Offal (000 tonnes) ( million) (000 tonnes) ( million) Note: Volumes are shipped product weight. Source: GTIS 7.6 Exports of fresh/frozen beef by destination, UK, (000 tonnes) Fresh/frozen beef and veal of which: bone-in boneless Note: Volumes are shipped product weight. Source: GTIS frozen fresh/chilled of which to: EU Irish Republic Netherlands France Belgium Italy Germany Poland

30 Abattoirs 8.1 Red meat abattoir numbers by type, England, Abattoir numbers Throughput (000 GBU) 6,834 6,908 7,320 7,394 Average throughput (GBU) 32,699 34,199 36,971 37,919 Types of abattoirs Killing cattle Killing sheep Killing pigs Source: AHDB/EBLEX 8.2 Red meat abattoirs by size, England, 2012 Source: AHDB/EBLEX 8.3 Size profile of abattoirs slaughtering cattle, England, 2012 Source: AHDB/EBLEX 28 Size group (GBU) Number of abattoirs Total throughput (GBU) Average throughput (GBU) Share of throughput (%) 1-1, , ,001-5, ,504 2, ,001-10, ,710 7, ,001-20, ,482 14, ,001-30, ,982 26, ,001-50, ,247 37, , , ,425,609 71, >100, ,248, , Total 195 7,394,149 37, Size group (head) Number of abattoirs Total throughput (head) Average throughput (head) Share of throughput (%) 1-1, , ,001-5, ,038 2, ,001-10, ,331 6, ,001-20, ,652 15, ,001-30, ,033 28, ,001-50, ,647 40, >50, ,495 72, Total 167 1,556,397 9,

31 Auction Markets 9.1 Auction market throughputs, GB, 2012 (000 head) England Wales Scotland GB Steers Heifers Young bulls Total prime cattle Cull cows New season lambs 2, ,810 Old season lambs 1, ,156 Total sheep 3,791 1, ,966 Cull ewes 1, ,761 Total clean pigs Cull sows Note: Data relates to finished markets only. Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS 9.2 Auction market centres by region, GB, England Wales Scotland GB Note: Data relates to finished markets only. Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS 29

32 Auction Markets Table 9.3 Auction markets held by region, GB, England Wales Scotland GB ,054 1, , ,104 1, , ,067 1, , , , ,151 1, Note: Data relates to finished markets only. Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS Table 9.4 Auction markets selling finished cattle by size, GB, 2012 Size group (head) Number of auction centres Total throughput (per head) Average throughput (per head) Share of throughput (%) 1-2, , ,501-5, ,683 3, ,001-7, ,226 6, ,501-10, ,395 8, ,001-12, ,738 11, >12, ,585 19, Total ,410 5, Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS 30

33 Auction Markets Table 9.5 Auction markets selling finished cattle by size, England, 2012 Size group (head) Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS Table 9.6 Auction markets selling finished cattle by size, Wales, 2012 Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS Number of auction centres Total throughput (per head) Average throughput (per head) Share of throughput (%) 1-2, , ,501-5, ,836 3, ,001-7, ,291 6, ,501-10, ,693 8, ,001-12, ,270 11, >12, ,884 20, Total ,984 6, Size group (head) Number of auction centres Total throughput (per head) Average throughput (per head) Share of throughput (%) 1-2, , ,501-5, ,577 3, ,001-7, ,501-10, ,810 9, ,001-12, >12, Total 17 29,077 1,

34 Auction Markets 9.7 Auction markets selling finished cattle by size, Scotland, 2012 Size group (head) Number of auction centres Total throughput (per head) Average throughput (per head) Share of throughput (%) 1-2, , ,501-5, ,270 4, ,001-7, ,935 6, ,501-10, ,892 7, ,001-12, ,468 10, >12, ,701 13, Total 17 74,349 4, Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS 9.8 Market share of largest auction markets selling prime cattle, GB, 2012 head % share Total throughput 290, Top 3 58, Top 5 90, Top , largest auction markets (a): Bridgnorth Darlington Ludlow Market Drayton Newark (a) In alphabetical, not size order. Source: AHDB/EBLEX, LAA, IAAS Northallerton Sedgemoor Selby Thirsk York 32

35 Carcase Classification 10.1 Percentage distribution of prime beef carcases, GB, (%) Steers Heifers Young bulls Source: AHDB/EBLEX 10.2 Percentage distribution of prime beef carcases by conformation and fat class, GB, 2012 Source: AHDB/EBLEX Fat class Increasing fatness Prime cattle L 4H 5L 5H Total Conformation class Improving conformation E U U R O O P P Total Percentage change in distribution of prime beef carcases, GB, Fat class (%) 1 and Source: AHDB/EBLEX Conformation class (%) E U R O P

36 Carcase Classification 10.4 Percentage change in prime beef carcases meeting target specification, GB, % 8.6% % 34.1% Target: E-R conformation and 1-4L fat Lean but of poor conformation Too fat Too fat and of poor conformation 9.5% % 51.0% 35.6% Target: E-R conformation and 1-4L fat Lean but of poor conformation Too fat Too fat and of poor conformation Source: AHDB/EBLEX 34

37 Notes Notes The Marketing Chain The information given in this section has been produced by AHDB. It includes data derived from a number of sources as detailed elsewhere in the publication. In addition, and in order to give as full a picture as possible of the UK meat market, data in some areas has been estimated, based on various surveys and known information. Livestock Numbers The survey and census figures are collected for the United Kingdom and its regions by the various Agriculture Departments: Defra, Nawad, Dardni and Seerad. The census of agricultural holdings is carried out in June each year. December data is sample data. Slaughterings and Production Slaughterings and production figures are provided by the UK Agriculture Departments; data for OTMS (Over Thirty Months Scheme) and OCDS (Older Cattle Disposal Scheme) cattle is sourced from RPA. Further analysis, such as average carcase weights and the deadweight/liveweight marketing split, has been undertaken by AHDB. Consumption The data shown comes from a variety of sources, which are shown underneath each table. Due to the different methodologies employed by the various sources, it is sometimes not possible to make comparisons between the tables. It is, therefore, important that note is taken of the footnotes to the tables which indicate, for example, whether imported processed products are included or not, and if consumption both in and outside the home has been measured. Livestock and Meat Prices All data is sourced from AHDB unless otherwise indicated. Deadweight producer prices are collected from a sample of abattoirs, while liveweight producer prices are collected from a large sample of auction markets. For more information about how this data is collected, contact the Market Intelligence Department of AHDB. The recording of cull cow prices restarted in 2006 when measures imposed because of BSE were relaxed and cull cows were marketed once more. 35

38 Notes Imports and Exports Statistics for trade between the UK and non-eu countries are collected by HM Revenue & Customs at the point of entry and exit. For trade with other EU countries, a system called Intrastat is used, based on trade undertaken by traders over a threshold value. Where trade data is given for EU-27, the 12 new Member States are included in trade figures prior to January 2007 for comparison purposes. The trade figures are subject to revision as more information becomes available. Abattoirs Statistics shown are based on data collected by AHDB. For comparison purposes, some of the throughput figures are quoted in GB Livestock Units (GBU) where 1 GBU = 1 cattle beast = 2 pigs = 5 sheep. All data for the cattle sector excludes OTMS/OCDS cattle. Auction Markets All data is based on sales of finished stock only from markets which reported prices to AHDB. For comparison purposes some of the throughput figures are quoted in GB Livestock Units (GBU) where: 1 GBU = 1 cattle beast = 2 pigs = 5 sheep. Carcase Classification All data is sourced from AHDB, based on carcases classified by Meat & Livestock Commercial Services Ltd. For cattle, the sampling rate of carcases in 2012 was 1 in 3 and 412,632 carcases were analysed. For sheep, the sampling rate was 1 in 25 with 133,398 carcases analysed. 36