Currency Risk Devaluation of local currencies and impact on leasing in the CEE Region

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1 Currency Risk Devaluation of local currencies and impact on leasing in the CEE Region Leaseurope s 2009 Seminar for Lessors in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, Istanbul 2-3 April 2009

2 I. Overview of Deutsche Leasing II. Currency Risk Devaluation of local currencies and impact on leasing in the CEE Region Slide 2

3 Who we are an overview Founded in 1962 as the first German leasing company Germany s No. 1 independent leasing company for movable assets Slide 3

4 Who we are an overview customers 1,906 employees EUR 13.8 billion balance sheet total EUR 31 billion assets under management Slide 4

5 Our presence in Europe and around the world Canada Halifax USA Chicago Sweden Stockholm Head Office in Germany Bad Homburg Ireland Dublin Netherlands Amsterdam Great Britain and Northern Ireland London France Paris Portugal Lisbon Spain Barcelona, Madrid Italy Milan China Shanghai, Beijing Russia Moskau, Samara, St. Petersburg Poland Warsaw, Gdansk, Poznan, Wroclaw, Katowice Chechen Republic Prague, Brno Slovakia Bratislava Hungary Budapest Rumania Bucharest Bulgaria Sofia Slide 5

6 New business by market segment 2007/08 in percentages Total 9,030 m new business volume Machinery and equipment ( 4,256 m) 6% 21% 26% 47% Road vehicles ( 2,356 m) Information and communication technology ( 533 m) DAL ( 1,885 m) Slide 6

7 I. Overview of Deutsche Leasing II. Currency Risk Devaluation of local currencies and impact on leasing in the CEE Region Slide 7

8 5 year performance 1) of selected CEE currencies EUR/CZK EUR/PLN + 12,1 % + 0,4 % EUR/HUF EUR/RUB - 13,4 % - 19,4 % 1) Spot prices Slide 8

9 Currency risk and impact of devaluation on leasing in the CEE Region For a long term investor a profit or loss from exchange rate movements is only realized if the foreign investment is repatriated (i.e. payment of dividends, termination or sale of foreign subsidiary) or the foreign country joins the Euro region (e.g. most recently Slovakia). Slide 9

10 Currency risk and impact of devaluation on leasing in the CEE Region As many leasing transactions in the CEE Region are denominated in Euro or leasing instalments are Euro-indexed, exchange rate movements lead to short term accounting gains and losses for the lessor that are offset over the term of the lease. Slide 10

11 Currency risk and impact of devaluation on leasing in the CEE Region Object Accounting / Operating Lease Lessor Accounting B/S book value of leasing assets X historic exchange rate outstandings on funding loan X current exchange rate exchange rate movements result in gains or losses that are offset over the term of the lease if the lease instalments are Euro-indexed. Slide 11

12 Currency risk and impact of devaluation on leasing in the CEE Region Short term exchange rate movements can grossly distort the balance sheet of the lessor. Example for currency appreciation: Czech Krona Slide 12

13 Currency risk and impact of devaluation on leasing in the CEE Region B/L accounting of Euro-indexed transaction (t0) Assumption: Two instalments at different exchange rates (appreciation of CZK) CZK/Euro exchange rate at the start of the lease (t0) =27,532 Assets (in CZ Krona) Liabilities Lease Assets 4.129,80 Bank Loan 4.129,80 Total 4.129,80 Total 4.129,80 Assets (in Euro) Liabilities Lease Assets 150,00 Bank Loan 150,00 Total 150,00 Total 150,00 Slide 13

14 Currency risk and impact of devaluation on leasing in the CEE Region B/L accounting of Euro-indexed transaction (t1) Assets (in CZ Krona) Liabilities Lease Assets ,90 Equity 215,20 Bank Loan ,70 Total 2.064,90 Total 2.064,90 1 exchange rate at t exchange rate at t Assets (in Euro) Liabilities Lease Assets 75,00 Bank Loan 75,00 Total 75,00 Total 75,00 Slide 14

15 Currency risk and impact of devaluation on leasing in the CEE Region P/L accounting of Euro-indexed transaction Assumption: Two instalments at different exchange rates (appreciation of CZK) CZK/EUR Income Depreciation Result from Leasing Result from Loan Revaluation t0 27,532 t1 24, ,90 t2 24, , ,90 0, ,90-215,20 215,20 0,00 Expense (in CZ Krona) Income Depreciation 4.129,80 1. Instalment 2.064,90 2. Instalment 1.849,70 Foreign exchange gain 1 215,20 Total 4.129,80 Total 4.129,80 1 due to repayment of funding bank loan (4.129,80) at 24,663 CZK/EUR (3.699,40). Slide 15

16 Currency risk and impact of devaluation on leasing in the CEE Region As the lessee s business income is usually in local currency, a devaluation might seriously obstruct his ability to maintain his (Euroindexed) lease instalments. Example of currency depreciation: Russian Ruble Slide 16

17 Currency risk and impact of devaluation on leasing in the CEE Region Assumption: Transaction value is 150 Euro Repayments in Ruble, indexed to the Euro Two instalments at different exchange rates (depreciation of RUB) RUB/Euro exchange rate at the start of the lease (t0) =35,94 RUB/Euro depreciation to 42,59 first instalment: 2.695,50 Rubles second instalment: 3.194,25 Rubles Customer has to burden additional payments of 498,75 Rubles Slide 17

18 Currency risk and impact of devaluation on leasing in the CEE Region F/X Estimates EUR/RUB Dec as of ,6 Deutsche Bank 40,8 Commerzbank 40,4 Bankhaus Metzler 53,6 average estimate 44,9 EUR/RUB-exchange rate Slide 18

19 Summary Local currencies in the CEE region steeply devaluated in 2009 The Russian Ruble is especially affected in line with the decline in the price of natural resources Leasing companies are usually not effected by currency devaluation as they generally pass the risk to the customer However, secondary effect will be a deterioration of leasing portfolios (translation of fx-risk into credit risk) with the worst yet to come Slide 19

20 Thank you for your attention! Slide 20

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