PRESS RELEASE Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, December 2014

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1 האוניברסיטה העברית ירושלים המכון למחקר ע"ש הרי ס. טרומן למען קידום השלום The Hebrew University of Jerusalem The Harry S. Truman Research Institute For the Advancement of Peace טל': /1 פקס: December 2014 PRESS RELEASE Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, December 2014 Following the war in Gaza, mutual threat perceptions are very high while Palestinian and Israeli support for the two-state solution and willingness to compromise go down These are the results of the most recent poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. This joint survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem. Following the war in Gaza in the summer of % of Israelis and 38% of Palestinians support a permanent settlement package along the Clinton parameters and the Geneva Initiative. These results are lower than the figures in December 2013 when 54% of the Israelis and 46% of the Palestinians supported the package. Given the Gaza war and the increasing tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank, 47% of Israelis and 36% of Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations: 39% of the Israelis and 26% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and some armed attacks will take place; 8% of the Israelis and 10% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no 1

2 armed attacks. By contrast, in June 2014, 28% of the Israelis and 16% of the Palestinians thought that the two sides will not return to negotiations and some armed attacks will take place and 7% of the Israelis and 13% of the Palestinians thought that the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no armed attacks. At the same time - consistent with previous results - each side perceives the other side as constituting a threat to its very existence. 58% of Palestinians think that Israel s goals in the long run are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens. 24% think the goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians. 37% of the Israelis think that the Palestinian aspirations in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel; 18% think the goals of the Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel. The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between December 3 and 6, The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 616 adult Israelis interviewed in Hebrew, Arabic or Russian between December 7 and 12, The margin of error is 4.5%. The poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Ifat Maoz, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, and the Department of Communication, and Director of the Swiss Center for Conflict Research, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR). For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Prof. Khalil Shikaki, at On the Israeli survey, contact Prof Ifat Maoz at 2

3 MAIN FINDINGS (A) Conflict management and threat perceptions Following the war in Gaza in the summer of 2014 and the increasing tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank, we asked both sides about their expectations for the future: 7% of the Israelis and 24% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will soon return to negotiations. 32% of the Israelis and 37% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will return to negotiations but some armed attacks will take place. 39% of the Israelis and 26% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and some armed attacks will take place. Finally, 8% of the Israelis and 10% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no armed attacks. In June 2014, 28% of the Israelis and 16% of the Palestinians thought that the two sides will not return to negotiations and some armed attacks will take place and 7% of the Israelis and 13% of the Palestinians thought that the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no armed attacks. Among Israelis, 62% are worried and 36% are not worried that they or their family may be harmed by Arabs in their daily life. Among Palestinians, 82% are worried and 19% are not worried that they or a member of their family could be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or home demolished. The level of threat on both sides regarding the aspirations of the other side in the long run is very high. 58% of Palestinians think that Israel s goals are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens, and 24% think the goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians. The modal category among Israelis is that the Palestinian aspirations in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel (37%); 18% think the goals of the Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel. Only 61% of the Palestinians think Israel s aspirations in the long run are to withdraw from part (6%) or all (10%) of the territories occupied in 1967 after guaranteeing its security. 33% of Israelis think the aspirations of the Palestinians are to regain all (17%) or some (16%) of the territories conquered in At the same time: 11% of the Israelis say the aspirations of Israel are to withdraw to the 1967 borders after guaranteeing Israel s security. 32% say the aspirations of Israel in the long run are to withdraw from parts of the territories after guaranteeing Israel s security. 18% say they are to annex the West Bank without granting political rights to the Palestinians living there. 13% say the aspirations of Israel in the long run are to annex the West Bank and expel the Palestinians living there. 3

4 Among the Palestinians 38% say that the aspirations of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO are to regain some of the territories conquered in the 1967 war. 31% say the aspirations of the Palestinian Authority in the long run are to regain all the territories conquered in the 1967 war. 14% say they are to conquer the State of Israel and regain control over the pre 1948 Palestine. 12% say the aspirations of the Palestinian Authority in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel. (B) Attitudes, perceptions and expectations regarding a permanent settlement Clinton/Geneva Parameters The Clinton parameters for a Palestinian-Israeli permanent settlement were presented by President Clinton at a meeting with Israeli and Palestinian officials on December 23, 2000, following the collapse of the July 2000 Camp David summit. The Geneva Initiative, along similar lines, was made public around the end of These parameters address the most fundamental issues which underlie the Palestinian-Israeli conflict: (1) Final borders and territorial exchange; (2) Refugees; (3) Jerusalem; (4) A demilitarized Palestinian state; (5) Security arrangements; and (6) End of conflict. We address these issues regularly since December 2003, and in the current poll we revisited these crucial issues, amidst a turbulent Middle East and the recent war in Gaza. 50% of Israelis and 38% of Palestinians support a permanent settlement package along the Clinton parameters. The results are lower than the figures in December 2013 (54% support among Israelis and 46% support among Palestinians). Since 2003, we observed only once majority support for such a settlement on both sides: in December 2004, shortly after the death of Arafat. The level of support then was 64% among Israelis and 54% among Palestinians. Below we detail support and opposition to the individual items in the Clinton / Geneva permanent status package. (1) Final Borders and Territorial Exchange Among Palestinians 45% support or strongly support and 54% oppose or strongly oppose an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with the exception of some settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be swapped with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with a map that was presented to the Palestinian respondents. The map was identical to that presented to respondents in December 2013, when support for this compromise, with its map, stood at 52% and opposition at 48%. 4

5 Among Israelis 41% support and 47% oppose a Palestinian state in the entirety of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip except for several large blocks of settlements in 3% of the West Bank which will be annexed to Israel. Israel will evacuate all other settlements, and the Palestinians will receive in return territory of similar size along the Gaza Strip. In December 2013, 44% of the Israelis supported this component while 48% opposed it. (2) Demilitarized Palestinian State Among Palestinians 28% support and 71% oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state that would have no army, but would have a strong security force and would have a multinational force deployed in it to ensure its security and safety. Israel and Palestine would be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other. A similar compromise received in December % support and opposition reached 71%. This item receives the lowest level of support by Palestinians, as in previous polls. Unlike the refugees and Jerusalem components, this issue has not received due attention in public discourse, as it should, since it may become a major stumbling block in the efforts to reach a settlement. Among Israelis 59% support and 33% oppose this arrangement compared to 60% support and 33% opposition obtained in December (3) Jerusalem Among Palestinians 29% support and 71% oppose a Jerusalem compromise in which East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israeli sovereignty. The Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that would come under Israeli sovereignty. In December 2013, an identical compromise obtained 32% support and 68% opposition. Among Israelis, 32% support and 59% oppose an arrangement in which the Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem including the old city and the Temple Mount will come under Palestinian sovereignty, the Jewish neighborhoods including the Jewish quarter and the Wailing Wall will come under Israeli sovereignty. East Jerusalem will become the capital of the Palestinian state and West Jerusalem the capital of Israel. In December 2013, similarly, 37% supported this arrangement and 56% opposed it. (4) Refugees 5

6 Among Palestinians 40% support and 58% oppose a refugee settlement in which both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242. The refugees would be given five choices for permanent residency. These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas. Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of these states. As a base for its decision Israel will consider the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees would be entitled to compensation for their refugeehood and loss of property. In December 2013, 46% agreed with an identical compromise while 52% opposed it. Among Israelis 36% support such an arrangement and 48% oppose it. In December 2013, 39% supported it and 50% opposed. (5) End of Conflict In the Palestinian public 61% support and 37% oppose a compromise on ending the conflict that would state that when the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples. In December 2013, 63% supported and 36% opposed this item. In the Israeli public 64% support and 27% oppose this component in the final status framework. In December 2013, similarly, 66% of the Israelis supported it while 28% opposed it. (6) Security Arrangements In the Palestinian public 46% support and 53% oppose a compromise whereby the Palestinian state would have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace, but Israel would have the right to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and would maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. A multinational force would remain in the Palestinian state and in its border crossings for an indefinite period of time. The task of the multinational force would be to monitor the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including the presence at its international crossings. In comparison, in December 2013, 52% of the Palestinians supported this parameter while 48% opposed it. In the Israeli public 49% support and 37% oppose this arrangement compared to 52% who supported it and 39% who opposed it in December The Whole Package 6

7 Among Palestinians 38% support and 60% oppose the whole package combining the elements as one permanent status settlement. In December 2013, 46% supported and 53% opposed such a package. Among Israelis 50% support and 40% oppose all the above features together taken as one combined package. In December 2013, 54% supported and 37% opposed such a package. We asked the Palestinians who opposed the full package how they would react if Israel, as part of the permanent peace package, also accepted the Arab Peace Initiative and the Arab states supported in return the peace treaty. 23% said they would in this case change their mind and accept the full package and 68% said they would not change their mind. (C) Negotiation Tracks on the Agenda The Saudi Plan 27% of the Israelis and 43% of the Palestinians support the Saudi peace plan, 63% of the Israelis and 53% of the Palestinians oppose it. In June 2014, 29% of the Israelis and 50% of the Palestinians supported the Saudi peace plan, 64% of the Israelis and 46% of the Palestinians opposed it. The plan calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state. The plan calls for Israeli retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The refugee problem will be resolved through negotiations in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with Israel and establish normal diplomatic relations. The Israeli-Palestinian Track Dismantling settlements - 42% of the Israelis support and 50% oppose the dismantling of most of the settlements in the West Bank as part of a peace agreement with the Palestinians. 58% of Israelis and 48% of Palestinians support the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, known as the two-state solution and 37% of Israelis and 51% of Palestinians oppose it. In June 2014, 62% of Israelis supported a two-state solution and 34% opposed it; 54% of Palestinians supported it and 46% opposed it. Mutual Recognition - As we do periodically in our joint polls, we asked Israelis and Palestinians about their readiness for a mutual recognition as part of a permanent status agreement and after all issues in the conflict are resolved and a Palestinian State is established. Our current poll shows that 54% of the Israeli public supports such a mutual 7

8 recognition and 36% opposes it. Among Palestinians, 39% support and 60% oppose this step. In June 2014, the corresponding figures were similar to the current poll, 52% of the Israeli public supported such a mutual recognition and 38% opposed it. Among Palestinians, 40% supported and 59% opposed this step. 8

9 Israeli Poll (#46) 7-12 December 2014; N=616 (Palestinian Poll (#54) 3-6 December 2014; N=1270) *Listed below are the questions asked in the Israeli survey, and the comparable Palestinian questions. When Israeli and Palestinian questions differ, the Palestinian version is italicized. V1) How would you describe Israel s condition in general these days? Israeli Jews All Israelis 1) Very good 3.1% 3.7% 2) Good 17.3% 17.5% 3) So-so 35.5% 34.3% 4) Bad 25.2% 23.2% 5) Very Bad 17.7% 19.3% 6) DK/NA 1.2% 1.9% % 99.90% Q1) In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days? Palestinians 1) Very good 1.0% 2) Good 8.7% 3) So-so 12.2% 4) Bad 36.3% 5) Very Bad 41.4% 6) DK/NA 0.4% % Q2) In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in the West Bank these days? Palestinians 1) Very good 3.4% 2) Good 19.4% 3) So-so 26.9% 4) Bad 31.3% 5) Very Bad 18.4% 6) DK/NA 0.5% 99.90% V3) (Q44) To what extent are you worried or not worried that you or a member of your family could be hurt by Arabs in your daily life? (To what extent are you worried or not worried that you, a member of your family could be hurt by Israel in your daily life, or that your land would be confiscated or home demolished?) 1) Very Worried 18.6% 19.5% 41.9% 2) Worried 45.2% 42.4% 39.6% 3) Not worried 27.0% 26.6% 16.2% 4) Not worried at all 7.8% 9.7% 2.3% 5) DK/NA 1.4% 1.8% / % % % 1

10 V4) (Q45) What do you think are the aspirations of the Palestinians (Israel) for the long run? 1) Regain some of the territories conquered in the 1967 war (Withdrawal from the 15.1% 16.4% 6.0% territories it occupied in 1967 after guaranteeing its security) 2) Regain all the territories conquered in the 1967 war (Withdrawal form part of the 16.5% 17.2% 10.0% occupied territories after guaranteeing its security) 3) Conquer the State of Israel (Annexation of the West Bank while denying political rights of 20.8% 18.3% 24.2% Palestinian citizens 4) Conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel (Extending the borders of the state of Israel to cover all the 42.3% 37.2% 58.3% area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expelling its Arab citizens) 5) DK/NA 5.2% 10.9% 1.5% 99.90% % % Now that Israel and the Palestinians return to permanent settlement negotiations, various compromise proposals may come up on the table. I will read to you now several items that might be included in the final settlement with the Palestinians. For each of theses items tell me the extent to which you agree or disagree to it, taking into account all its elements. V6) (Q48-5) The proposed permanent settlement will be based on mutual recognition of Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples. The agreement will mark the end of conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. Do you agree or disagree with this item? (When the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples) 1) Definitely (Strongly) agree 18.6% 20.8% 13.9% 2) Agree 45.0% 42.9% 47.4% 3) Disagree 18.3% 16.2% 28.5% 4) Definitely (Strongly) disagree 11.8% 11.0% 8.8% 5) DK/NA 6.2% 9.1% 1.4% 99.90% % % V7) (Q48-2) Demilitarized independent Palestinian state will be established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian state will have no army, but it will have a strong security force and a multinational force will be established to ensure the security and safety of both sides. Both sides will be committed to end all forms of terrorism and violence directed against each other. Do you agree or disagree with this item? (An independent Palestinian state would be established in the areas from which Israel withdraws in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; the Palestinian state will have no army, but it will have a strong security force but an international multinational force would be deployed to insure the safety and 2

11 security of the state. Both sides will be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other.) 1) Definitely (Strongly) agree 17.5% 18.3% 4.2% 2) Agree 43.7% 40.4% 23.9% 3) Disagree 18.3% 17.5% 52.1% 4) Definitely (Strongly) disagree 16.7% 15.4% 18.7% 5) DK/NA 3.9% 8.3% 1.1% % 99.90% % V8) (Q48-6) Israel will have the right to use the Palestinian air space for training purposes. The Palestinian state will have sovereignty over its air space its land and its water resources. In addition Israel will maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. The multinational force will remain in the Palestinian state and its border crossings for an indefinite period of time. The task of the multinational force will be to monitor the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor the territorial integrity of the Palestinian state and its border crossings given its being demilitarized. Do you agree or disagree with this item? (The Palestinian state will have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace. But Israeli will be allowed to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and will maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. The multinational force will remain in the Palestinian state for an indefinite period of time and its responsibility will be to insure the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including its international border crossings.) 1) Definitely (Strongly) agree 12.8% 13.1% 9.2% 2) Agree 37.5% 35.6% 36.7% 3) Disagree 22.5% 20.0% 38.6% 4) Definitely (Strongly) disagree 17.3% 16.7% 13.9% 5) DK/NA 9.9% 14.6% 1.6% % % % V9) (Q48-1) The Palestinian state will be established in the entirety of Judea Samaria and the Gaza strip territories, except for several large blocks of settlements which will be annexed to Israel and will not exceed 3% of the size of West Bank. Israel will evacuate all other settlements. The Palestinians will receive in return territory of similar size along the Gaza strip. Do you agree or disagree with this item? (An Israeli withdrawal from all of the Gaza Strip and the evacuation of its settlements. But in the West Bank, Israel withdraws and evacuates settlements from most of it, with the exception of few settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be exchanged with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with the attached map.) 1) Definitely (Strongly) agree 9.7% 10.7% 7.5% 2) Agree 32.2% 30.4% 37.4% 3) Disagree 24.3% 22.9% 41.9% 4) Definitely (Strongly) disagree 27.0% 24.0% 12.4% 5) DK/NA 6.8% 12.0% 0.9% % % % V10) (Q48-3) Jerusalem will be the capital of both states. East Jerusalem will be the capital of the Palestinian state and West Jerusalem the capital of Israel. The Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem including those in the old city as well as the Temple Mount will come under Palestinian sovereignty. The Jewish neighborhoods including the Jewish quarter and the Wailing Wall will come under Israeli sovereignty. Do you agree or disagree with this item? (East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israel sovereignty. The Old 3

12 City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that will come under Israeli sovereignty.) 1) Definitely (Strongly) agree 8.7% 10.6% 4.9% 2) Agree 21.9% 21.6% 23.8% 3) Disagree 25.4% 23.1% 48.9% 4) Definitely (Strongly) disagree 39.2% 35.4% 21.7% 5) DK/NA 4.7% 9.4% 0.7% 99.90% % % V11) (Q48-4) The solution to the refugee problem will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242. The refugees will be given five choices for permanent residency: - Return to the Palestinian state - Return to areas currently in Israel which will be transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above - Residency in their current states - Immigration to countries such as the US Canada and Australia - Return to Israel. Return to Israel will be restricted and at the discretion of Israel. As a base for its decision, Israel will consider the average number of refugees who will immigrate to states such as Australia Canada and Europe. All refugees irespective of their choice will be entitled to compensation for their refugeehood and loss of properties. Do you agree or disagree with this item? (With regard to the refugee question, both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242 and on the Arab peace initiative. The refugees will be given five choices for permanent residency. These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas. Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of the states in those areas. The number of refugees returning to Israel will be based on the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees will be entitled to compensation for their "refugeehood" and loss of properties.) 1) Definitely (Strongly) agree 6.0% 8.0% 5.2% 2) Agree 28.3% 27.9% 34.3% 3) Disagree 26.6% 24.0% 43.2% 4) Definitely (Strongly) disagree 27.4% 24.2% 15.0% 5) DK/NA 11.7% 15.9% 2.2% % % 99.90% V12) (Q48-7) And now after we went over the main features proposed as part of the Israeli Palestinian permanent settlement please tell me the extent to which you support ot oppose such a permanent settlement in general, when you consider all features together as one combined package? 1) Definitely (Strongly) agree 9.3% 13.1% 7.0% 2) Agree 38.8% 36.9% 31.1% 3) Disagree 27.0% 23.9% 44.0% 4) Definitely (Strongly) disagree 18.1% 16.2% 16.0% 5) DK/NA 6.8% 9.9% 1.9% % % % 4

13 V16) (Q38) What do you expect to happen between Palestinians and Israelis now after the war in Gaza and the increasing tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank? (Now after the war in Gaza and the increasing tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank, what do you expect to happen between Palestinians and Israelis?) 1) The two sides will return soon to negotiations 4.5% 6.8% 23.5% 2) The two sides will return to negotiations but some armed 34.6% 31.5% 36.9% attacks will take place 3) The two sides will not return to negotiations and some armed 43.1% 38.5% 26.4% attacks will take place 4) The two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no 8.0% 7.5% 9.9% armed attacks 5) DK/NA 9.9% 15.7% 3.3% % % % V19) Do you support or oppose the solution based on the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, known as the two-state solution? Israeli Jews All Israelis 1) Definitely disagree 17.7% 15.9% 2) Disagree 12.8% 11.2% 3) Somewhat disagree 11.1% 9.7% 4) Somewhat agree 13.2% 12.7% 5) Agree 26.8% 26.1% 6) Definitely agree 15.1% 19.2% 7) DK/NA 3.3% 5.2% % % V20) (Q47) According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees' problem will be resolved through negotiation in a just and agreed-upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194 (which allows return of refugees to Israel and compensation). In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relations. Do you agree or disagree to this plan? 1) Definitely (Certainly) disagree 37.3% 32.3% 14.6% 2) Disagree 22.9% 19.6% 38.2% 3) Somewhat disagree 11.7% 10.7% / 4) Somewhat agree 9.3% 8.8% / 5) Agree 10.3% 11.9% 35.4% 6) Definitely (Certainly) agree 3.7% 6.5% 7.7% 7) DK/NA 4.9% 10.2% 4.1% % % % V21) To what extent do you support or oppose dismantling most of the settlements in the territories as part of a peace agreement with the Palestinians? Israeli Jews All Israelis 1) Definitely disagree 25.8% 22.4% 2) Disagree 16.3% 14.1% 3) Somewhat disagree 15.0% 13.0% 5

14 4) Somewhat agree 15.3% 14.4% 5) Agree 12.0% 13.3% 6) Definitely agree 10.3% 14.6% 7) DK/NA 5.2% 8.1% 99.90% 99.90% V22) (Q54) There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal? 1) Definitely (Certainly) 15.5% 16.7% 15.3% disagree 2) Disagree 14.0% 11.7% 44.0% 3) Somewhat disagree 9.7% 8.8% / 4) Somewhat agree 16.1% 15.7% / 5) Agree 28.5% 27.9% 34.0% 6) Definitely (Certainly) agree 7.8% 9.9% 4.9% 7) DK/NA 7.2% 10.7% 1.7% % % % V23) (Q46) What in your opinion are the aspirations of Israel (Palestinian Authority and the PLO) for the long run? 1) Withdrawal to the 1967 border after guaranteeing Israel s security 10.3% 11.0% 37.9% (Regain some of the territories conquered in the 1967 war) 2) Withdrawal form only parts of the territories after guaranteeing Israel s security 36.9% 31.8% 30.8% (Regain all the territories conquered in the 1967 war) 3) Annexation of the West Bank without political rights to the Palestinians living there (Conquer the State of Israel and 18.6% 17.7% 13.6% regain control over the pre 1948 Palestine) 4) Annexation of the West Bank and expelling the Palestinians living there (Conquer the State of Israel and 12.6% 12.5% 11.5% destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel) 5) DK/NA 21.6% 26.9% 6.2% % 99.90% % 6

15 האוניברסיטה העברית ירושלים המכון למחקר ע"ש הרי ס. טרומן למען קידום השלום The Hebrew University of Jerusalem The Harry S. Truman Research Institute For the Advancement of Peace טל': /1 פקס: בדצמבר 4102 הודעה לעיתונות סקר דעת קהל ישראלי-פלסטיני משותף דצמבר 4102 בעקבות מבצע צוק איתן )המלחמה בעזה בקיץ 4102(, תפיסות האיום הדדיות מאוד גבוהות. בו בזמן, יש ירידה בתמיכה בפתרון של שתי מדינות לשני עמים ובנכונות לפשרה כך עולה מממצאי הסקר האחרון שנערך במשותף על ידי מכון הרי ס. טרומן לקידום השלום באוניברסיטה העברית בירושלים והמרכז הפלסטיני למדיניות ולחקר דעת קהל ברמאללה.)PSR( הסקר המשותף נערך בתמיכת קרן אדנאואר בירושלים וברמאללה. בעקבות מבצע צוק איתן )המלחמה בעזה בקיץ 4102( 01% מהישראלים ו- 83% מהפלסטינים תומכים בהסדר קבע לפי מתווה קלינטון/ג'נבה. הממצאים מעט נמוכים יותר מהנתונים בסקר דצמבר 4108, בו אחוזי התמיכה היו 54% מקרב הישראלים ו- 24% מקרב הפלסטינים. בעקבות מבצע צוק איתן )המלחמה בעזה בקיץ 4102( והמתיחות הגוברת בירושלים ובגדה המערבית, 01% בציבור הישראלי ו- 84% בציבור הפלסטיני חושבים שהצדדים לא יחזרו למשא ומתן: 83% מקרב הישראלים ו- 44% מקרב הפלסטינים חושבים המשא ומתן המדיני לא יתחדש אך פה ושם יהיו עדיין פיגועים וירי; 3% מקרב הישראלים ו- 01% מקרב הפלסטינים

16 חושבים המשא ומתן המדיני לא יתחדש ותהיה הפסקה של הפיגועים והירי. 7% מקרב הישראלים ו- 48% מקרב הפלסטינים סבורים שהמשא ומתן המדיני יתחדש בקרוב מאוד ותהיה הפסקה של הפיגועים והירי. 84% מקרב הישראלים ו- 87% מקרב הפלסטינים סבורים שהמשא ומתן המדיני יתחדש בקרוב מאוד אך פה ושם יהיו עדיין פיגועים וירי. בהשוואה, ביוני 4102, 43% מקרב הישראלים ו- 04% מקרב הפלסטינים היו סבורים שהמשא ומתן המדיני לא יתחדש בקרוב אך פה ושם יהיו עדיין פיגועים וירי; 7% מקרב הישראלים ו- 08% מקרב הפלסטינים סבורים שהמשא ומתן המדיני לא יתחדש בקרוב ולא יהיו פיגועים וירי. בו בזמן ובאופן העקבי עם ממצאים קודמים - כל אחד מהצדדים תופס את הצד האחר כמהווה איום על עצם קיומו. 03% מקרב הפלסטינים סבורים ששאיפת ישראל לטווח הארוך היא להרחיב את גבולות המדינה על כל השטח שבין נהר הירדן לים ולגרש את הערבים ו- 42% חושבים שהשאיפות הן לספח את הגדה המערבית ללא מתן זכויות אזרח לתושבים הפלסטינים. 87% מקרב הישראלים סובר כי שאיפות הפלסטינים לטווח הארוך הן לכבוש את הארץ ולהשמיד חלק ניכר מהאוכלוסייה היהודית במדינת ישראל, ו- 03% מקרב הישראלים חושבים ששאיפות הפלסטינים הן לכבוש את ישראל. המדגם הפלסטיני מייצג את תושבי הגדה רצועת עזה ומזרח ירושלים וכלל 0411 מרואיינים מגיל 01 ומעלה שרואיינו ב- 041 מקומות בגדה וברצועת עזה, בראיונות פנים אל פנים. גודל טעות הדגימה הוא 3%. הראיונות נערכו בין ה- 3 ל- 6 בדצמבר המדגם הישראלי כלל 606 מרואיינים שרואיינו בעברית, ערבית ורוסית בין ה- 1 ל- 01 בדצמבר 4102, וגודל טעות הדגימה הוא 2.1%. הסקר תוכנן ונוהל בידי פרופ' יפעת מעוז מהמכון למחקר ע"ש הרי ס. טרומן למען קידום השלום, ומהמחלקה לתקשורת ועיתונאות המכהנת כראש מרכז שוויץ לחקר סכסוכים באוניברסיטה העברית בירושלים וע"י פרופ' חליל שקאקי ראש המכון למדיניות וחקר דעת קהל (PSR) ברמאללה. לפרטים נוספים על הסקר הפלסטיני נא לפנות לפרופ' חליל שקאקי, ולפרטים נוספים על הסקר הישראלי לפרופ' יפעת מעוז 2

17 ממצאים עיקריים: א. התנהלות הסכסוך ותפיסות איום בעקבות מבצע צוק איתן )המלחמה בעזה בקיץ 4102( והמתיחות הגוברת בירושלים ובגדה המערבית, שאלנו את שני הצדדים לגבי הצפיות שלהם לעתיד: 1% מקרב הישראלים ו- 42% מקרב הפלסטינים חושבים שהמשא ומתן יתחדש, 34% מקרב הישראלים ו- 31% מקרב הפלסטינים סבורים שהמשא ומתן המדיני יתחדש אך פה ושם יהיו עדיין פיגועים וירי. מאידך גיסא, 33% מקרב הישראלים ו- 46% מקרב הפלסטינים חושבים שפיגועים וירי לא ייפסקו והצדדים לא יחזרו למשא ומתן ו- 1% מקרב הישראלים ו- 01% מקרב הפלסטינים סבורים ששני הצדדים לא יחזרו למשא ומתן והפיגועים והירי יפסקו. ביוני 4102, 41% מקרב הישראלים ו- 06% מקרב הפלסטינים סברו שהמשא ומתן המדיני יתחדש אך פה ושם יהיו עדיין פיגועים וירי; 1% מקרב הישראלים ו- 03% מקרב הפלסטינים סברו ששני הצדדים לא יחזרו למשא ומתן והפיגועים והירי יפסקו. מקרב הישראלים, 64% מודאגים ו- 36% אינם מודאגים מכך שהם או בני משפחתם עלולים להיפגע על ידי ערבים בחיי היום יום שלהם. מקרב הפלסטינים, 14% חוששים ו- 03% אינם חוששים שהם או בן משפחתם עלול להיפגע בידי ישראלים או שאדמתם תוחרם או ביתם ייהרס. רמת האיום הנתפס באשר לשאיפות לטווח הארוך של הצד השני גבוהה מאד בשני הצדדים. 11% מקרב הפלסטינים סבורים ששאיפת ישראל לטווח הארוך היא להרחיב את גבולות המדינה על כל השטח שבין נהר הירדן לים ולגרש את הערבים. 42% חושבים שהשאיפות הן לספח את הגדה המערבית ללא מתן זכויות אזרח לתושבים הפלסטינים. 31% מקרב הישראלים סובר כי שאיפות הפלסטינים לטווח הארוך הן לכבוש את הארץ ולהשמיד חלק ניכר מהאוכלוסייה היהודית במדינת ישראל ו- 01% מקרב הישראלים חושבים ששאיפות הפלסטינים הן לכבוש את ישראל. רק 06% מקרב הפלסטינים חושבים כי שאיפות ישראל הן לפנות את כל )01%( או חלק )6%( מהשטחים שנכבשו ב או את כולם. 33% מהישראלים מקרב הישראלים חושבים כי שאיפות פלסטין הן להחזיר את כל )01%( או חלק )06%( מהשטחים שנכבשו ב באותו זמן, 00% מקרב הישראלים אמרו כי השאיפות של ישראל לטווח הארוך הן חזרה לגבולות 0361 תוך הבטחת הביטחון של ישראל; 32% אמרו כי השאיפה של ישראל היא נסיגה רק מחלק מיהודה ושומרון תוך הבטחת הביטחון של ישראל; 18% חשבו שהשאיפות הן סיפוח יהודה ושומרון מבלי להעניק זכויות אזרח לפלסטינים החיים שם; ו- 13% אמרו כי שאיפות ישראל הן סיפוח יהודה ושומרון וגירוש הפלסטינים החיים שם. מקרב הפלסטינים, 31% אמרו ששאיפות הפלסטינים הן לקבל חזרה חלק מהשטחים שנכבשו ב ו- 30% אמרו כי שאיפת הפלסטינים היא לקבל חזרה את כל השטחים שנכבשו ב % אמרו כי השאיפה של הפלסטינים היא לכבוש את ישראל. 04% אמרו כי השאיפה של הפלסטינים היא לכבוש את הארץ ולהשמיד חלק ניכר מהאוכלוסייה היהודית במדינת ישראל. ב. עמדות, תפיסות וציפיות לגבי הסכם שלום מתווה קלינטון/ז'נבה להסדר קבע הפרמטרים לפתרון קבע של הסכסוך הישראלי-פלסטיני שנבחנו בסקר הנוכחי, הוצגו על ידי הנשיא קלינטון ב- 43 בדצמבר 4111 בפגישה עם נציגים ישראלים ופלסטינים לאחר כישלון פסגת קמפ דיויד ביולי באותה שנה. יוזמת ז'נבה פורסמה בדצמבר הפרמטרים מתייחסים לסוגיות החשובות 3

18 ביותר עליהן נסוב הסכסוך: )0( גבולות הקבע וחילופי שטחים )4( סוגיית הפליטים )3( ירושלים )2( הקמת מדינה פלסטינית מפורזת )1( הסדרי בטחון )6( סוף הסכסוך. סוגיות אלה נבחנו על ידינו בעבר מספר פעמים מאז דצמבר 4113, ובסקר הנוכחי אנו שבים לבחון סוגיות אלה, במזרח התיכון הסוער ובעקבות מבצע צוק איתן )המלחמה בעזה בקיץ 4102(. 11% מהישראלים ו- 31% מהפלסטינים תומכים בהסדר קבע לפי מתווה קלינטון/ג'נבה. הממצאים נמוכים יותר מהנתונים בסקר דצמבר 4103, בו אחוזי התמיכה היו 54% מקרב הישראלים ו- 26% מקרב הפלסטינים. מאז התחלנו לעקוב אחרי סוגיה זו בסקר המשותף ב- 4113, מצאנו רק פעם אחת תמיכת רוב משותפת בחבילת ההסדר מקרב הישראלים והפלסטינים גם יחד. ממצא זה היה בדצמבר 4112 בסמיכות למותו של יאסר ערפאת. אז הייתה התמיכה בהסדר קבע כזה 62% מקרב הישראלים ו- 12% מקרב הפלסטינים. להלן פירוט עמדות שני הקהלים בסעיפים הספציפיים של מתווה קלינטון: )0( גבולות הקבע וחילופי שטחים מקרב הפלסטינים 21% תומכים או תומכים מאוד ו- 12% מתנגדים או מתנגדים מאוד לפינוי ישראלי של מרבית הגדה המערבית מלבד גושי התנחלויות על כ- 3% משטח הגדה. הפלסטינים יקבלו בתמורה שטחים בגודל דומה המצוינים במפה שהוצגה לנשאלים הפלסטינים. בדצמבר 4103, תמכו בסעיף זה 14% והתנגדו לו 21%. מקרב הישראלים 20% תומכים ו- 21% מתנגדים למדינה פלסטינית שתוקם בכל שטחי יהודה שומרון וחבל עזה מלבד גושי התנחלויות גדולים שיסופחו לישראל שלא יעלו על 3% משטח הגדה. ישראל תפנה את יתר ההתנחלויות, והפלסטינים יקבלו בתמורה שטח בגודל דומה לאורך רצועת עזה. בדצמבר 4103 תמכו בסעיף זה 22% מהישראלים ו- 21% התנגדו לו. )4( פליטים מקרב הפלסטינים 21% תומכים ו- 11% מתנגדים לפתרון אשר יוסכם על שני הצדדים ויהיה מבוסס על החלטות האו"מ 032 ו הפתרון יכלול 1 אופציות אותן יוכלו הפליטים לבחור: - חזרה למדינה הפלסטינית - חזרה לשטחים שכיום הם בישראל אך יועברו למדינה הפלסטינית במסגרת חילופי שטחים - השארות במקומות מגוריהם הנוכחיים - הגירה למדינות כמו אוסטרליה, קנדה ואירופה - חזרה לישראל. החזרה לישראל תהיה מוגבלת ונתונה לשיקול דעתה של ישראל. כבסיס להחלטה, ישראל תיקח בחשבון את המספר הממוצע של הפליטים שיהגרו למדינות כמו אוסטרליה קנדה ואירופה. כל הפליטים ללא קשר לבחירתם יהיו זכאים לפיצויים מקרן בינלאומית עבור היותם פליטים ועבור אובדן רכוש. בדצמבר 26% 4103 בציבור הפלסטיני תמכו ו- 14% התנגדו לתכנית זו. מקרב הישראלים 36% מסכימים ו- 21% מתנגדים להסדר זה של סוגיית הפליטים. בדצמבר 4103, 33% מהישראלים תמכו בסעיף זה ו- 11% התנגדו לו. 4

19 )8( ירושלים בציבור הפלסטיני 43% תומכים ו- 10% מתנגדים לפשרה בירושלים שבה ירושלים תהיה בירת המדינה הפלסטינית כאשר השכונות הערביות בירושלים יהיו בריבונות פלסטינית והשכונות היהודיות יהיו בריבונות ישראל. העיר העתיקה )כולל חראם אל שריף( תהיה בריבונות פלסטינית מלבד הרובע היהודי והכותל המערבי שיהיו בריבונות ישראל. בדצמבר 4103 תמכו בהסדר 34% מן הפלסטינים ו- 61% התנגדו לו. מקרב הישראלים 34% תומכים ו- 13% מתנגדים לכך שירושלים תהיה בירת שתי המדינות. מזרח ירושלים תהיה בירתה של המדינה הפלסטינית וירושלים המערבית בירת ישראל. השכונות הערביות בירושלים, כולל בעיר העתיקה והר הבית, יהיו בריבונות פלסטינית. השכונות היהודיות, כולל הרובע היהודי והכותל המערבי, יהיו בריבונות ישראל. באופן דומה, בדצמבר 4103 תמכו בהסדר זה 31% והתנגדו לו 16% מהישראלים. )2( מדינה פלסטינית מפורזת מקרב הפלסטינים 41% תומכים ו- 10% מתנגדים להקמת מדינה פלסטינית עצמאית ללא צבא אך עם כח בטחון חזק שיוצב בה כוח רב לאומי כדי להגן על בטחונה. ישראל ופלסטין יהיו מחויבות להימנע מכל צורה של אלימות המכוונת אחת כלפי השנייה. בדצמבר 4103 תמכו בסעיף זה 41% והתנגדו לו 10%. באופן דומה, בדצמבר 4103 תמכו בהסדר 41% מן הפלסטינים ו- 10% התנגדו לו. מקרב הישראלים 13% תומכים בסעיף זה ו- 33% מתנגדים לו. בדצמבר 4103, תמכו בו 61% לעומת 33% שהתנגדו לו. )0( הסדרי בטחון בציבור הפלסטיני 26% תומכים ו- 13% מתנגדים להסדר פשרה שבו תהיה למדינה הפלסטינית ריבונות על המרחב האווירי שלה, על אדמתה ועל מקורות המים שלה, אך ישראל תוכל להשתמש במרחב האווירי הפלסטיני לצורך טיסות אימון. בנוסף יוקמו בגדה שתי תחנות התרעה ישראליות לתקופה של 01 שנים וכוח רב-לאומי יישאר במדינה הפלסטינית ובמעברי הגבול שלה לזמן בלתי מוגבל. מטרת הכוח הרב לאומי לפקח על ביצוע ההסכם ולהגן על השלמות הטריטוריאלית של המדינה הפלסטינית, קו החוף וכן נוכחות במעברי הגבול הבינלאומיים שלה. בהשוואה, בדצמבר % תמכו בסעיף זה ו- 21% התנגדו לו. בציבור הישראלי 23% תומכים ו- 31% מתנגדים להסדרים אלה, בהשוואה ל- 14% שתמכו ו- 33% שהתנגדו להם בדצמבר )4( סוף הסכסוך בציבור הפלסטיני 60% תומכים ו- 31% מתנגדים לכך שעם יישום הסכם הקבע במלואו הוא יהווה את סוף הסכסוך בין ישראל לפלסטינים ללא אפשרות לתביעות נוספות מכל צד שהוא. הצדדים יכירו בפלסטין ובישראל כבתים הלאומיים של עמיהם. בדצמבר, 4103 תמכו 63% ו- 36% התנגדו. בציבור הישראלי 62% תומכים ו- 41% מתנגדים לסעיף זה. באופן דומה, בדצמבר 4103 תמכו 66% ו- 41% התנגדו. החבילה בכללותה 5

20 מקרב הפלסטינים 31% תומכים ו- 61% מתנגדים להסדר קבע המשלב את כל הסעיפים יחד כחבילה אחת. בדצמבר 4103 תמכו בחבילה 26% לעומת 13% שהתנגדו. מקרב הישראלים 11% תומכים בהסדר קבע המשלב את כל הסעיפים כחבילה אחת ו- 21% מתנגדים לו. בדצמבר 12% 4103 תמכו בחבילת הפרמטרים ו- 31% התנגדו לה. בנוסף, שאלנו את הפלסטינים אשר התנגדו לחבילה בכללותה, כיצד יגיבו במידה וישראל כחלק מהסכם שלום קבוע -- תקבל גם את יוזמת השלום הערבית )התוכנית הסעודית(, במידה ומדינות ערב יתמכו בהסכם השלום. 43% מקרב הפלסטינים אמרו כי במקרה כזה ישנו את דעתם ויקבלו את החבילה בכללותה, בעוד 61% אמרו כי לא ישנו את דעתם ולא יקבלו את החבילה בכללותה. ג. ערוצי המשא ומתן שעל סדר היום: תכנית הליגה הערבית )התכנית הסעודית( 41% מקרב הישראלים ו- 23% מקרב הפלסטינים תומכים בתכנית השלום הסעודית שקוראת להכרה ערבית ונורמליזציה של היחסים עם ישראל לאחר סיום הכיבוש של השטחים הערביים שנכבשו ב והקמת מדינה פלסטינית. 63% מקרב הישראלים ו- 13% מקרב הפלסטינים מתנגדים לתכנית השלום הסעודית. בסקר יולי 4102, 11% מקרב הפלסטינים תמכו בתוכנית הסעודית ו- 26% התנגדו לה, בעוד ש- 43% מקרב הישראלים תמכו בתוכנית ו- 62% התנגדו לה. הערוץ הישראלי-פלסטיני פינוי התנחלויות - 24% מקרב הישראלים תומכים בפרוק מרבית ההתנחלויות בשטחים במסגרת הסכם שלום בין ישראל לבין הפלסטינים, 11% מתנגדים לכך. 11% מקרב הישראלים ו- 21% מקרב הפלסטינים תומכים בפתרון של הקמת מדינה פלסטינית לצד מדינת ישראל המכונה הפתרון של שתי מדינות לשני עמים. 31% מקרב הישראלים ו- 10% מקרב הפלסטינים מתנגדים לפתרון זה. ביולי 4102, 64% מקרב הישראלים תמכו ב בפתרון של שתי מדינות ו- 32% התנגדו לה. הכרה הדדית - אנו בוחנים באופן תקופתי את מוכנות הישראלים והפלסטינים להכרה הדדית בזהות הלאומית של שני העמים כחלק מהסדר הקבע ולאחר שכל הסוגיות במחלוקת יפתרו ותוקם מדינה פלסטינית. מהסקר הנוכחי עולה כי 12% מקרב הישראלים ו- 33% מקרב הפלסטינים מסכימים שלאחר הקמת מדינה פלסטינית ופתרון כל הבעיות כולל הפליטים וירושלים תהיה הכרה הדדית של ישראל כמדינת העם היהודי ושל פלסטין כמדינת העם הפלסטיני. 36% מקרב הישראלים ו- 61% מקרב הפלסטינים מתנגדים שלאחר הקמת מדינה פלסטינית ופתרון כל הבעיות כולל הפליטים וירושלים תהיה הכרה הדדית של ישראל כמדינת העם היהודי ושל פלסטין כמדינת העם הפלסטיני. בסקר שנערך ביולי 4102, שיעורי התמיכה וההתנגדות היו דומים לאלו שנמצאו בסקר הנוכחי: 14% מקרב הישראלים תמכו ו- 31% התנגדו להכרה הדדית כזו. בקרב הפלסטינים, 21% תמכו ו- 13% התנגדו למהלך זה. 6

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