Trade under threshold estimation

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1 Trade under threshold estimation Nordic meeting for trade in goods and services/bop Stockholm 2012 Haukur Björnsson (presented by Auður Ólína Svavarsdóttir)

2 Overview Background Estimation of trade under threshold Method Results Conclusion

3 Disclaimer The results described in the presentation are preliminary and unpublished

4 Background Iceland s application in negotiation phase Timeframe of negotiations and date of membership are unknown SI is preparing for the fastest scenario MEETS 2011 MEETS 2012 One tasks includes applying Intrastat methods to historical data (real data)

5 Icelandic External Trade Few traders (small population) Few large companies dominate the data (e.g. four exporters to EU MS account for roughly half of the trade volume Few trade sectors A few EU MS dominate the trade High seasonality

6 Trade Under Threshold Estimation Estimation methods: Above threshold trade (less four largest traders on the export side) Just above threshold trade 5% (JATT 5%) Just above threshold trade 1% (JATT 1) A combination of non EU trade (smallest traders) and JATT 5%

7 Trade Under Threshold Estimation VAT, VIES and Enterprice Characteristics data not currently available limits the choice of methods Study months: January and July of 2011 Mock study Historical (real) data for trade under threshold data used as test for different methods

8 The Test To find out which method is best að allocating under threshold trade by MS and commodity code (HS2 digit level). 27 Member States 99 HS2 digit levels 27 x 99 = 2,673 Hence, the methods need to predict trade value in 2,673 cells

9 Summary of Traders in 2011 Below-threshold exporters Above-threshold exporters (Less 4 largest) Below-threshold importers Above-threshold importers Number of traders Total 2011 value of largest trader (ISK) Total value for all traders on list (ISK) % of total value of exports to EU MS in ,045,514 14,469,850,472 2,984% ,659,591, ,588,789,848 45,0832% 4,133 24,748,962 12,830,431,238 4,9908% ,734,866, ,253,429,489 95,0092%

10 Summary for Below Threshold Trade for the Test Months Category Month Total number of records Exports to EU Member States Imports from EU Member States January July January July 2,002 1,680 23,241 26,038 Total number of declarants ,077 1,231 Total value in ISK

11 The Number of Traders in Each Group used for Estimation Trader Group Imports Exports Above Threshold JATT 1% JATT 5% Smallest non-eu 3,

12 Results: Number of Empty Cells for each Method (out of 2,673) Trader Group Number of empty cells / Percentage of empty cells Exports Imports January July January July Below Threshold 2,418 / 90.5% 2,478 / 92.7% 2,038 / 76.2% 1,998 / 74.7% Above Threshold 2,497 / 93.4% 2,514 / 94.1% 2,113 / 79.0% 2,070 / 77.4% JATT 1% 2,633 / 98.5% 2,652 / 99,2% 2,476 / 92.6% 2,423 / 90.6% JATT 5% 2,638 / 98.7% 2,640 / 98,8% 2,174 / 81.3% 2,133 / 79.8% Small non-eu NA NA NA NA

13 Distribution of Trade by MS, Export Member State Under treshold* Above threshold JATT 1% JATT 5% AT 1.02% 0.34% 0.00% 0.02% BE 4.42% 4.78% 0.07% 9.76% BG 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% CY 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% CZ 1.48% 0.23% 0.00% 0.00% DE 9.08% 7.38% 13.86% 10.54% DK 15.17% 6.25% 18.30% 9.64% EE 0.12% 0.81% 0.00% 0.00% ES 1.07% 12.95% 0.84% 16.97% FI 0.42% 0.37% 0.00% 0.40% FR 1.78% 9.29% 2.28% 3.33% GB 17.35% 23.73% 23.56% 21.80% GR 1.48% 2.29% 0.00% 0.00% HU 0.02% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% IE 1.03% 1.04% 0.00% 6.97% IT 4.04% 6.81% 3.68% 2.10% LT 0.06% 5.17% 0.00% 0.00% LU 0.15% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% LV 2.34% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% MT 0.08% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% NL 16.31% 11.96% 36.67% 13.22% PL 0.27% 2.71% 0.00% 0.00% PT 4.29% 2.64% 0.00% 0.00% RO 0.02% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% SE 18.00% 0.78% 0.73% 5.24% SI 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% SK 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% Sum % % % % Sum - 3 largest 51.66% 48.64% 78.53% 52.00% Number of no trades Correlation w. trade under threshold

14 Distribution of Trade by MS, Import Member State Under treshold* Above threshold JATT 1% JATT 5% AT 0.94% 3.37% 7.71% 3.75% BE 2.48% 2.19% 1.11% 4.15% BG 0.03% 0.18% 0.06% 0.08% CY 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% CZ 1.23% 0.63% 0.02% 1.11% DE 10.07% 16.09% 13.25% 20.82% DK 11.75% 15.69% 23.59% 16.68% EE 1.13% 1.18% 0.00% 0.01% ES 2.32% 1.53% 0.59% 2.85% FI 17.26% 0.75% 0.84% 2.05% FR 3.02% 3.91% 3.92% 6.61% GB 12.28% 19.76% 11.48% 11.81% GR 0.06% 0.11% 0.00% 0.07% HU 0.75% 0.61% 0.13% 0.26% IE 0.79% 0.79% 0.70% 0.64% IT 8.59% 7.98% 1.07% 6.79% LT 0.58% 0.84% 1.66% 1.16% LU 0.13% 0.04% 0.00% 0.13% LV 0.30% 2.13% 0.00% 0.00% MT 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% NL 17.70% 7.75% 6.42% 7.82% PL 1.66% 1.94% 4.44% 1.82% PT 0.27% 1.42% 0.41% 0.60% RO 0.28% 0.62% 0.00% 0.41% SE 5.82% 8.52% 22.39% 9.76% SI 0.10% 0.58% 0.25% 0.39% SK 0.26% 1.38% 0.01% 0.11% Sum % % % % Sum - 3 largest 47.24% 51.53% 59.23% 49.31% Number of no trades Correlation w. trade under threshold

15 Distribution of Trade by HS2, Export Sum - 3 largest Number of no trades Correlation w. trade under threshold Under treshold* 47.24% Above threshold 81.36% JATT 1% 54.62% JATT 5% 77.05% Smallest non-eu 51.65%

16 Distribution of Trade by HS2, Import Sum - 3 largest Number of no trades Correlation w. trade under threshold Under treshold* Above threshold JATT 1% JATT 5% Smallest non-eu 31.63% % % % %

17 Distribution of Trade by MS Above threshold JATT 1% JATT 5% Smallest non-eu Jan % 21.02% 21.60% 26.77% Jul % 19.43% 26.61% 32.40% Average 27.88% 20.23% 24.11% 29.59% Above threshold JATT 1% JATT 5% Smallest non-eu Jan % 31.05% 43.91% 44.34% Jul % 33.52% 52.50% 49.39% Average 36.92% 32.29% 48.21% 46.87%

18 Conclusion Dissapointing results but useful exercise Population too small and homogenious Intrastat in Iceland will have to rely on fiscal information (VAT and VIES) and information on enterprice characteristics, but neither is available today Planning of Intrastat will have to include substantial consultation with providers of fiscal data

HU CZ FI PL SI PT IT ES NO NL FR DK SE IE GB AT DE CH LU 0 10 20 30 40 Foreigners' share Source: Eurostat More trust 3 4 5 6 7 PL HU CZ SI PT GR ES DK FI SE

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