Housing as a Commodity

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1 Housing Issues nd Policy, Ubn Studies Pogmme, CUHK URSP300 Housing s Commodity by D Edwd CY Yiu Associte Pofesso Dept of Geogphy nd Resouce Mngement, Chinese Univesity of Hong Kong

2 Expected Outcomes Wht is Infltion? Eqution of Exchnge Why lnd nd housing e good hedge of infltion? 2

3 Wht is Infltion? The vlue of doll does not sty constnt when thee is infltion. The vlue of doll is obseved in tems of puchsing powe, which is the el, tngible goods tht money cn buy. Goods Pice Money s Vlue 3

4 Cuses of Infltion? Demnd-Pull Infltion: Too much money chsing too few goods; nd Cost-Push Infltion: Insufficient supply of common fcto of poduction. Money Money Goods Money Money Money 4

5 Monetism s Definition of Infltion Infltion is defined s continuing ise in the genel pice level usully ttibuted to n incese in the volume of money nd cedit eltive to vilble goods nd sevices. (Webste) WWI WWII Fit Money Get Depession Get Recession 5

6 Eqution of Exchnge MV = PQ M is the totl nominl mount of money in cicultion V is the velocity of money P is the pice level (P hike implies infltion) Q is n index of el expenditues PQ is the nominl GDP If V & Q e fixed, then M (money supply) cuses infltion ( monety phenomenon) 6

7 Why Home Ownes Like (mild) Infltion? Homeownes with motgges e debtos; Lge motgge, longe epyment yes emining, lge the benefit. Motgge monthly epyment $0,000 in 2004 = $3,365 in 204 (if discount te = 2%) Option to en housing pice ppecition; Vey low isk due to the high levege nd mol hzd. Rel $ If buy $0,000 $9,804 $4,902 $4,02 $3,365 If ent $0,000 $0,000 $0,000 $0,000 $0,000 $0,000 7

8 8

9 Infltion is Cime Infltion by money supply is cime! The fist btch (bnkes/boowes) who got the money sue wins by buying lnd nd housing; The lst btch (employees) who fights fo income incese to educe the loss of puchsing powe sue losses by pying highe ent, deteioting living stndds. 9

10 Why Lnd / Housing e Good Hedge of Infltion? Lnd nd housing e excellent stoe of vlue Limited supply, esp. lnd High utility nd commonly tesued Duble, esp. lnd Lnd nd housing e MONEY? 0

11 A Rel Cse of Lnd-Stndd Money Hypeinfltion cused the gold eichsmk US doll exchnge te chnged fom 4.2: to tillion: Gustv Stesemnn (nd Hjlm Schcht) ended the Reichsbnk, nd ceted new cuency, the entenmk, bcked by lnd the thn gold. To limit the totl numbe of entenmks in cicultion to 2.4 billion. (Ayes, 204, p.88) The ide is fom Kl Helffeich Holtfeich, Cl-Ludwig & Bldeston, Theo (986), The Gemn Infltion, , New Yok: De Guyte, pp

12 Shotcomings of Holding Lnd / Housing Lnd nd housing e NOT commonly used s money, becuse: Non-divisible Lumpy Qulity not stnddisble Ltent defects, esp. housing Immovble nd illiquid High tnsction costs Govenment inteventions 2

13 Housing is NOT fo USE, but fo INFLATION HEDGE If Housing is fo ccommodtion use, its housing vlue should be the discounted sum of futue entl income: FV n PV Ti m e co m p o u n d i n g d i s co u n ti n g V l u e 3

14 4 Income Appoch of Housing Vlue The Discounted Csh Flow (DCF) Model: P 0 is the pesent vlue t is the csh flow t time t is the cost of cpitl (discount te) T is the time of the lst csh flow T t t t T T P K

15 Futue Vlue to Pesent Vlue Ye Csh Flow Discount Fcto (0%) Pesent Vlue $ $ $ $ $ $5030 $85270 $20k $30k $50k Now Ye Ye 2 Ye 3 time

16 Annuity Annuity is specil cse whee ech futue csh flow is fixed i.e. t = = constnt e.g. Fixed lese The DCF model becomes Geometic Pogession (GP) P 0 T t t [ ] - T -

17 Annuity in Pepetuity Lnd cnnot be destoyed no depecite. Annuity in pepetuity is specil cse whee futue csh flow is not only fixed but is infinitely long i.e. T e.g. feehold popeties The fomul is educed to: P 0 lim T T t t

18 Godon Gowth Model Csh flows e not fixed, but hve constnt gowth (g) ptten t ech peiod g T g g g g g P T t t t T T > nd if K Futhe detils, see Bown nd Mtysik (2000) Yiu nd Hui (2005)

19 An Exmple of Godon Gowth Model If 500 sf housing unit, t M On Shn Let out t monthly net ent $5,000 (i.e. =$80,000 p) If ssuming g = infltion te (bout 4% p) If the equied te of etun is 6% (bout long tem low-isk copote bond te) i.e. -g = 6%-4% = 2% The cuent housing yield te is lso bout 2% Then by Godon Gowth Model, the pice of the housing unit, P = 80,000 / ( ) = $9,000,000 9

20 But How About When Housing is NOT only fo USE? It woks like gold, which cn hedge infltion, nd eveyone tust it fo exchnge vlue; Then, how to estimte its vlue? 20

21 Dimond Wte Pdox See Adm Smith s (776) Wte- Dimond Pdox Ai is indispensble, vey useful, but cnnot genete ny income; Ai is not n sset, though useful. Dimond is useless (to me nd to mny people), but vey vluble; Dimond cnnot genete income eithe; Why dimond is expensive? Its Exchnge Vlue! 2

22 Rent v. Buy Rent Initil entl pyment Buy $20,000 Down pyment $900,000 Totl monthly entl pyment $0,000 Totl monthly motgge pyment $0,874 Annul mintennce nd othe cost $2,000 Totl pyments ove 20 yes $3,065,359 Totl pyments ove 20 yes $2,649,754 Svings blnce t end of 20 yes -$56,724 Appecited home vlue t end of 20 yes $3,982,

23 Housing Supply is Moe Thn Enough, if its NOT Commodity Ye Pivte Housing Subsidized Housing Public Rentl Housing Totl Housing Stock Households ,000 36, ,000,, , ,000 86, ,000,696,000-0, ,258, , ,000 2,332,000 25, ,458,000 39, ,000 2,66,000 95,200 Tking into ccount the existence of 86,000 subdivided units, thee cn be lmost 300,000 housing units owned not fo genuine ccommodtion use.

24 Housing Futues Commodity Picing 24

25 Refeences Bli, J.P. (995) Locl Economic Development: Anlysis nd Pctice, Cli.: Sge Publictions, Inc. Pttillo, M. (203) Housing: Commodity vesus Right, Annul Review of Sociology, 39, DOI: 0.46/nnuev-soc Smith, Adm (776) An Inquiy into the Ntue nd Cuses of the Welth of Ntions. Ricdo, Dvid (9) Alonso, Willim (964) Loction nd Lnd Use, Bown, G.R. nd Mtysik, G.A. (2000). Rel estte investment cpitl mket ppoch, Finncil Times Pentice Hll, Essex. Yiu, C.Y. nd Hui, E.C.M. (2005). Cpitliztion Rte nd Expected Retun: A Cointegtion Anlysis in Housing Mket, Jounl of Rel Estte Eduction nd Pctice, 9(),

26 The End comments e welcome. Enquiies to: 26

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