Oil and Basic Fuel Prices: The Exchange Rate Impact

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1 Oil and Basic Fuel Prices: The Exchange Rate Impact By the South African Oil & Gas Market Team, adapted from Wayne Chodzicki, Calgary, Leader, KPMG s Global Energy Practice. The price of oil, with its recent rise towards, and above US$100/bbl, has become regular news. However, the impact of the exchange rate on the price of oil in local economies is often not as widely publicised. The change in the global-us dollar exchange rate over the past seven years, particularly relative to the South African rand has had significant implications for local, as well as global companies and economies. The Iranian Light Crude (ILC) price of oil has increased from an average of US$20/bbl in 2001 to almost US$70/bbl in 2007, more than tripling over the 7 year period. During that same period, exchange rates (to the US dollar) have also changed significantly in both first world and developing economies. Furthermore, the increased US dollar price of ILC has had a greater effect on economies that tie their currency to the US dollar. As a result of these exchange rate changes, the price of oil when converted to local currency around the world has not increased as dramatically as it has in the United States. In short, the price in Europe has increased only 125% over the 7 year period while the price in South African terms has increased by 180%, still significantly below that experienced in the US. Because of the buffering effect appreciating exchange rates have had on the price of oil in the rest of the world, non-us based downstream oil companies whose revenues are generated in local currency but whose costs for primary inputs are dollar based have not experienced the same percentage growth in revenues (by price alone) as companies that operate in a US dollar functional currency. This exchange rate buffering also impacts the global user of oil (businesses and consumers), both positively and negatively, depending on whether a country is a net importer or exporter of oil. For net importers, although suffering from a general increase in oil price, their energy inputs are not as expensive as they might have been if the exchange rate had not appreciated. An important consideration for such economies now is how to create innovative ways in which to contain input price increases and so minimize any adverse impact on their own export volumes. Net oil exporting economies have of course benefited substantially from the shift in oil prices as demand shows little signs of slowing despite their increase. Regarding South Africa, the local impact of rand/dollar exchange rate is most evident in analysis of oil price figures (see figure. 1). Over this period markets responded to an under-valued rand (in Purchasing Power Parity terms) resulting in record performances from the latter part of 2002, when the rand strengthened by 43% by year end and a further 28% during Media commentators and writers also speculate about the future price of oil, with record prices of over US$130/bbl reached in May In South Africa, the benefits of a relatively strong rand/dollar exchange rate on local oil, and therefore fuel prices through the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) - calculation, appear to be over, and this, coupled with the requirement for renewed investment in our local Oil Industry infrastructure as it becomes increasingly aged is likely to result in significant price increases being experienced at our forecourts for the foreseeable future.

2 2 Commodity Price Analysis Iranian Light Crude Oil A\g price throughout year US$ to ZA Rands USD X/R ZAR % increase USD 0% -6% 38% 42% 68% 160% 245% % increase ZAR 0% 14% 21% 7% 23% 104% 182% 2007 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June % increase USD 0% 5% 12% 18% 27% 31% % increase ZAR 0% 5% 15% 16% 24% 30% 2007 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % increase USD 42% 42% 56% 71% 79% 90% % increase ZAR 37% 43% 54% 60% 67% 81%

3 3 Iranian Light Crude Oil A\g price Throughout year US$ to Euro USD X/R EURO % increase USD 0% -6% 38% 42% 68% 160% 245% % increase EURO 0% -11% 9% 2% 21% 86% 125% 2007 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June % increase Euro 0% 4% 10% 13% 22% 27% 2007 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % increase Euro 34% 35% 45% 56% 58% 70%

4 4 Basic Fuels Price South Africa 95 Unleaded Petrol SA Cents per Litre ZAR C/pl BFP % Change 0% 12% -2% 27% 53% 59% 101% 2007 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June ZAR C/pl BFP % Change 0% -7% 0% 18% 29% 36% 2007 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ZAR C/pl BFP % Change 33% 29% 22% 25% 26% 39%

5 5 Figure 1a Comparative ILC prices year 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% % Increase USD % Increase ZAR % Increase EURO Figure 1b Crude vs BPF (Rands) 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% % Increase USD % Increase ZAR % Increase EURO BFP % change

6 6 Figure 2 Comparative ILC prices year, % 50% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -25% % Increase USD % Increase ZAR % Increase EURO Figure 3 Crude price increase vs BPF increase, % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -20% % Increase USD % Increase ZAR % Increase EURO BFP % change

7 7 Hilda Mulock Houwer Director Oil & Gas Phone Graham Legge Associate Director Oil & Gas Phone

8 kpmg.co.za The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative KPMG Services (Proprietary) Limited, a South African company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. Printed in South Africa. (MC4092)

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