Currency Daily Report Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Transcription

1 Urjit pat CONTENTS Currency Daily Report Market Overview Daily Analysis with fundamental and technical outlook US Dollar Indian Rupee Euro Sterling Pound Japanese Yen Important events for the day to depreciate on DX strength Euro to trade lower as markets play safe prior to economic data releases Cable to trade lower on weak job report Yen to appreciate on DX strength For further assistance please refer to the full report

2 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS (% change) INDICES LAST CHANGE WOW MOM NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI COMMODITIY HIGHLIGHTS (% change) INDICES LAST CHANGE WOW MOM NYMEX CRUDE - $/BBL COMEX GOLD - $/OZ COMEX SILVER - $/OZ LME COPPER (3M) -$/TONNE #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A CURRENCY HIGHLIGHTS (% change) CURRENCY LAST CHANGE WOW MOM DX USD EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Technical Chart USD Daily = (GMT) Cndl, =, , , , , , , (-0.03%) /USD 68.1 Jun 16 July 2016 August MARKET OVERVIEW Asian markets after trading in red have bounced back and are trading higher as investors expect more policy stimulus in other economies of the world. Moreover, an expectation of a US rate hike in coming months has undermined the American currency thereby providing support to other currencies. US DOLLAR INDEX (USD) The American currency traded on a flat note yesterday. Reason for this sideways movement in the currency could be attributed to the disappointing release of personal spending data from the nation and the hawkish comment by Fed Chairwoman in her recent speech. both these factors, which are contrary in nature, played with the dollar movement. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in her recent speech stated that the case for a rate increase was strengthening, but provided little detail on when the Fed would next move. The American currency made an intraday low of and closed at on Monday. INDIAN RUPEE (USD) The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note yesterday owing to increased volatility in the global markets after the hawkish comment by the US Fed Chairwoman in her latest speech. Moreover, moth end dollar demand by importers/exporters and banks kept the Indian Rupee sideways. Sensex and Nifty however ended in red owing to mixed trend seen in the Asian market equities that governed the trend of the Indian markets. For the month of August 2016, FII inflows in equities totaled at Rs crores ($ million) as on 26 th August, Year to date basis, net capital outflows stood at Rs crores ($ million) as on 26 th August, The Indian currency made an intraday high of and closed at on Monday. The Indian Rupee made an intraday low of and closed at on Monday. Rupee is likely to trade positive tracking gains in Asian market equities as an expectation of a US rate hike in coming months has undermined the American currency thereby providing support to other currencies including rupee. USD Sep 16 (NSE/MSE) Sideways

3 EURO (EURUSD) Euro currency traded lower by 0.1 percent yesterday as hawkish comment by the US Fed Chairwoman kept the American currency positive in major part of the trading day thereby acting as a negative factor for the shared currency. Moreover lack of important economic data releases from the zone kept the trading volumes a bit light. Euro currency made an intraday low of and closed at on Monday. Euro is expected to trade lower as markets remain cautious ahead of the important economic data releases from the zone which will keep the shared currency pressurized. EUR Sep 16 (NSE/MSE) Down Technical Chart EUR Daily EUR= (GMT) Cndl, EUR=, , , , , , , N/A June 2016 July 2016 August German ZEW Economic Sentiment declined to 0.5 in July 16 from previous months ZEW Economic Sentiment surged to 4.6 percent from previous months Final CPI for the month of July 16 remained unchanged at 0.2 percent STERLING POUND (GBPUSD) Sterling Pound fell by 0.27 percent in yesterday s trading session. Reason for the same could be attributed to the recent strength in the currency that prompted the traders to book profits. Moreover, lack of economic data releases from the nation kept the trading volumes a bit light. According to credit ratings agency Moody s, Britain s economy will slow down but should not go anywhere close to a recession as growth in the rest of the world is also stabilizing. Sterling pound made an Intraday low of and closed at on Monday. Sterling Pound is expected to trade lower as recent surge in the currency will prompt the traders to book profits. Moreover, markets play safe prior to the net lending data from the nation. GBP Sep 16 (NSE/MSE) Down Technical Chart GBP/ Daily GBP=R Cndl, GBP=R, , , , , , , (-0.04%) Inflation rate surged by 0.6 percent in July 16 from previous months 0.5 percent. Retail Sales for the month of July 16 surged to 1.4 percent from previous months -0.9 percent (GMT) Jun 16 July 2016 August Public Sector Net Borrowing declined to -1.5B in July 16 from 7.5B in June 16. Average Earnings Index surged by 2.4 percent in July 16 from previous months 2.3 percent. Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.9 percent in July

4 JAPANESE YEN (JPY/USD) Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.08 percent in yesterday s trading session as markets discount the recent statement made by the BOJ governor at Jackson Hole meeting in the last week. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he won t hesitate to boost monetary stimulus if needed. Tokyo Core CPI for the July reading stood at -0.3 percent which meant that the nation is still struck by deflation and it is clear that the government s Abenomics economic plan and BoJ easing has not worked for the economy. Japan s economic growth plunged for the quarter ending Jun 16 on weak exports and capital expenditure, putting even more pressure on PM Shinzo Abe to come up with policies that produce more sustainable growth. Japanese Yen likely to trade negative as markets discount the recent statement made by the BoJ governor in the last week s Jackson Hole meeting. The governor said that he won t hesitate to boost monetary stimulus if needed. Technical Chart JPY/ Daily JPY=R Currency Daily Report (GMT) Cndl, JPY=R, , , , , , , (+0.05%) 20 June 2016 July 2016 August Prelim GDP declined to 0.0 percent for quarter ending June 16 from previous months 0.5 percent. Japan s current account jumped to JPY 1.65 trillion, up from JPY 1.45 trillion a month earlier JPY Sep 16 (NSE/MSE) Sideways Economic indicators to be released on 30-Aug-16 Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact Household Spending y/y Japan 5:00am % -2.2% Medium German Prelim CPI m/m Euro All - 0.1% 0.3% Medium Spanish Flash CPI y/y Euro 12:30pm % -0.6% Medium Net Lending to Individuals m/m UK 2:00pm - 4.9B 5.2B Medium CB Consumer Confidence US 7:30pm High

5 Research Team Heena Imtiaz Naik Research Associate Currency (022) Extn :6104 Prathamesh Mallya Sr. Research Analyst Non-agro Commodity & Currency (022) Extn :6134 Harsh Rawat Technical Analyst Currency (022) Kaynat Chainwala Research Analyst (022) Extn :6136 Thank You Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai Tel: (022) Currency: INE / MCX Currency SEBI Regn No: INE / Member ID: Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Broking Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com