Conflict and Insecurity in Balochistan: Assessing Strategic Policy Options for Peace and Security. PIPS Report. Conflict and Insecurity in Balochistan

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1 OCT-DEC 2010 PIPS Report : Assessing Strategic Policy Options for Peace and Security 0 P a g e

2 Report : Assessing Strategic Policy Options for Peace and Security Safdar Sial and Abdul Basit Acknowledgements We owe our gratitude to a great many people whose help, insightful reviews, comments and continuous support during the fieldwork and analysis helped us complete this report successfully. Our deepest thanks go to Muhammad Amir Rana whose invaluable inputs assisted us in articulating the arguments precisely and make necessary corrections as and when needed. Special thanks to Najam U Din for editing and reviewing the report. We greatly appreciate the efforts of field researchers, Shahzada Zulfiqar and Mufti Sanaullah in Balochistan, Ali Abbas in Islamabad, and Zahid Hassan in Lahore, who conducted interviews with a range of people successfully despite the time constraints and security risks, particularly in Balochistan. We would also like to express our gratitude to PIPS researchers Khuram Iqbal, Nida Naz and Shagufta Hayat for their continuous help and assistance in collection of related research literature, provision of necessary data, documents, and searching the archives with attention and care. Finally, the field and desk research for the study would not have been possible without remarkable coordination by Mujtaba Muhammad Rathore. 1 P a g e

3 Contents 1. Introduction and Methodology 2. Conflict Analysis 2.1 Structures: An Account of Factors Geographical Political i. Relations with the Centre ii. Governance Economic i. Development ii. Control and Distribution of Resources Social i. Ethnicity and Culture ii. Religion iii. Security: Physical and Sociocultural 2.2 Actors: Agendas, Capacities and Locations Nationalist Insurgents Religious/Sectarian Extremists Smugglers and Criminal Syndicates Relations and Nexuses Political Parties The State and its Security Apparatus Civil Society and Development Agencies 2.3 Dynamics of Conflict Long-term Trends or Historical Context Triggers of Violence i. Nawab Akbar Bugti s Murder ii. Enforced Disappearances iii. Conflict Induced Internal Displacements iv. Target Killings v. Floods Regional Context and External Factors An Analysis of Future Scenarios 3. State Responses and Capacities 4. Strategic Policy Options for Peace and Security 2 P a g e

4 Summary of Findings Conflict Analysis Structures Insecurity in Balochistan stems from a combination of nationalist insurgency, sectarianrelated militancy, Taliban presence, target killings and criminal activities. A weak and undemocratic political culture, lack of social development, and overcentralisation have caused a strong sense of political deprivation. Although there have been some problematic group histories in Balochistan based on ethnicities, the Baloch do not have religious tensions with any other ethnic or sectarian community. Two factors are critical with regard to religious structures of the Pakhtun community in Balochistan: presence of a large number of Deobandi madrassas in Pakhtun-dominated areas; and arrival and settlement of a large number of Afghan refugees in Balochistan after the Soviet-Afghan war. Actors Two discourses prevail regarding the nature and level of the current insurgency and the role of insurgent groups. According to one, the strife in Balochistan is crude guerrilla warfare without a leadership that can appeal to the masses, while the other categorizes it as a movement of disenchanted educated youth which is garnering support of the masses. Groups such as Taliban, Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jundullah have an active presence in the province. Free movement across the Pak-Afghan border, presence of a large Pakhtun community in Balochistan that shares the ethnicity and religion of a substantial part of the population in Afghanistan, an extensive network of Deobandi madrassas and the Afghan refugee camps in the province are some of the key support and recruitment factors for Taliban. Baloch insurgent groups and religious extremists have at least some links with crime syndicates and gangs. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Baloch insurgents sometimes share information and infrastructure. However, a nexus between Taliban and Baloch insurgents is unlikely. Different stakeholders believe that the political parties do not have the mandate or the capacity to play a decisive role in resolving the conflict in Balochistan, and that the real power lies with the security establishment. Baloch nationalist political parties are either federalist or waver between federalism and separatism. Mainstream and religio-political parties generally support Baloch demands for provincial autonomy but renounce violence. 3 P a g e

5 There is considerable confusion about the mandate, jurisdiction and roles of different security and law enforcement agencies in Balochistan. Although they have the required human resource, their personnel are poorly trained, and lack the equipment and other resources to carry out their duties adequately. Civil society organizations operate on a non-political basis, and have no direct role in conflict resolution. On account of widespread insecurity, absence of rule of law and governance issues, many international development organizations have suspended or wound up their projects in the province. However, some civil society and development organizations continue to work on micro-level projects in the education and health sectors. They employ the local people for these projects. Dynamics Some fundamental issues or sub-conflicts that have led to the present conflict in Balochistan include the conflicting national identity perspectives of the state and Baloch nationalists; underrepresentation of the Baloch at the national level; grievances over lack of political and fiscal autonomy and over development issues; and hybrid manifestations of Baloch nationalism, i.e., a nationalist political discourse and insurgent tendencies existing alongside each other. Baloch nationalism has several structural and dynamic factors ranging from underrepresentation in the federation of Pakistan and its institutions to issues of political and fiscal autonomy and development. Some events and developments in recent years including the murder of Nawab Akbar Bugti, enforced disappearances of Baloch people, conflict-induced internal displacements, and increasing incidents of target killing have triggered the current Baloch insurgency. Regional and global dynamics of the conflict in Balochistan are associated with the province s unique geographical location and geo-strategic significance with special reference to the development of a seaport in Gwadar, Balochistan s significance as a transit route for proposed gas pipelines and the US-led war on terror in the neighbourhood. State Responses and Capacities A number of political measures by the incumbent government have a conscious focus on Balochistan, including the 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, the Aghaz-e- Huqooq-e-Balochistan package and the 18th Constitutional Amendment. Implementation of these measures would be of significance in the context of a sense of alienation and disempowerment among the Baloch. Another state response has come recently in the form of recruitment of Baloch youth in Pakistan Army. These political developments have received two types of responses: outright dismissal, and scepticism about implementation due to issues of law and order, governance, the civil bureaucracy s relations with democratic governments, Balochistan-centre rapport, and economic recession, etc. 4 P a g e

6 There do not appear to be any signs of an imminent halt in the Baloch insurgency. However, it is perhaps a bit too early to assess the impact of the government s political overtures. Options for Peace and Security The federal government should ensure the implementation of the 7 th NFC Award, the Aghaz-e-Huqooq-e-Balochistan package, and the 18th Constitutional Amendment, boost the capacity and resources of law enforcement agencies, release or produce in courts all illegally detained and missing persons, improve vigilance on Balochistan s borders with Afghanistan and Iran, and provide employment and livelihood opportunities to the Baloch. The Balochistan government should work out a comprehensive roadmap for development projects in the province and prioritize sectors such as education, health, fisheries, livestock and mining. It should prepare and share with local and international development organizations detailed proposals for such projects. It should also address the concerns of development agencies by ensuring security and transparency in financial matters. The Balochistan government should establish polytechnic institutes with a view to train the local people as skilled workers. Political parties should engage Baloch nationalist parties and leaders in deliberations to evolve a consensus on how violence and insecurity can be reduced in Balochistan. They should also keep pressing the federal government to implement the political and constitutional measures it has announced for Balochistan. The security forces must ensure that their actions do not violate the law and that there are no extrajudicial killings, illegal detentions or enforced disappearances. International actors working for peace and development can initiate small and locallevel projects in collaboration with the provincial government, particularly in the health and education sectors. They must make a conscious effort to avoid upsetting the political and cultural sensitivities of the Baloch people. (The report is published in PIPS Research Journal Conflict and Peace Studies, Volume 3, Number 4. To buy or subscribe contact publications@san-pips.com) 5 P a g e

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