Foresight in Policy Making System Finnish Perspectives

Transcription

1 Mutual Learning Workshop 2nd December 2005, IPTS, Seville Foresight in Policy Making System Finnish Perspectives Torsti Loikkanen Research Manager VTT Technology Studies (VTT-TS) http//

2 Outline h Personal views on (mainly technology) foresight in Finland h Role of learning Nonaka s SECI model h Research profile of VTT Innovation Policy Studies h Assessment of (technology) foresight h How to link past, current and future in innovation policy studies? h How to link different phases of policy-making h Policy-making, policy-makers and foresight

3 Views on foresight in Finland h Tradition: practical applying of new concepts NSI, cluster analysis.. by NCST and policy-makers (e.g. national R&D cluster programs) h Foresight tradition: Rome Club, TA/TF of Future Committee of Parliament, regional foresights, VTT & Tekes activities,... h Recent policy initiatives: National Platform (survey), Finsight by Tekes and Academy, VTT activities (internal, services) spurred also by globalization h Industry (besides internal strategic foresight) engaged in public initiatives (e.g. Nordic hydrogen, several TRMs) also spurred by globalization h Nordic initiatives : Survey, H2-TF, Foresight Platform, ICT... h Participation in EU level and global activities (e.g. NISTEP/Japan, US institutes, GRA ) h Foresight, planning, implementation and evaluation & impact assessment of policy-making still distinct procedures => linking of exercises and actors => increasing interest of policy-makers (also) in foresight? h Convergence of future studies and technology foresight communities?

4 Technology Foresight Hydrogen Energy Foresight in the Nordic Countries Objectives h To develop socio-technical scenarios for a future hydrogen society and explore roads to commercialisation in production, transport, storage and utilisation h To contribute as decision support for companies, research institutes and public authorities to order to prioritise R&D and to develop effective framework policies. h To maintain and develop scientific and industrial networks WP 1 Preliminary studies WP 3 Identifying Barriers & Carriers WP 5 Scenario Workshop WP 6 Vision Seminar WP 7 S & T Roadmap Seminar WP 8 Action Seminar WP 4 Systems Analysis & Technological Assessment WP 2 Web Site & Information WP 10 Reporting WP 11 Nordic Conference WP 9 World Hydrogen Energy Conference WP 12 Evaluation

5 SECI model Tacit knowledge Socialization Dialogue Tacit knowledge Externalization Tacit knowledge Field building Tacit knowledge Työryhmät Paneelit Projektiryhmät Johto- ja tukiryhmät Tutkijaverkostot Kansalaisfoorumit Pilotointi T&K-työ Strategiatyö Painotukset Priorisoinnit Voimavarojen kohdennus Internalization Learning by doing Asiantuntijahaastattelut Aivoriihet Työpajat Mind Mapping Internet-pohjaiset Delphi ym. kyselyt Ennakointiraportit Teknologialistat, päätöspuut Patentti- & julkaisuanalyysit Skenaariot SWOT-analyysi Teknologiakartat Riski- ja elinkaarianalyysit Combination Explicit Linking explicit knowledge Explicit Explicit knowledge Explicit knowledge (SECI-malli, ks. Nonaka, 1994; Nonaka & Takeuchi, 1995)

6 VTT Innovation Policy Studies Development of specific and integrated technologies Development of specific and integrated technologies (technology foresights, technology road maps) (technology foresights, technology road maps) Development of economic and social environment of Development of economic and social environment of technological change technological change Technology paradigms and development trends Technology paradigms and development trends Technological change and industrial structures Technological change and industrial structures Impact assessment of technological change (ex-ante / expost, constructive technology assessment) Impact assessment of technological change (ex-ante / expost, constructive technology assessment) Co-evolution of technological, social and economic Co-evolution of technological, social and economic change; social shaping of technology change; social shaping of technology Value basis and ethical aspects of technological change Value basis and ethical aspects of technological change Technology policy, institutions and regulation Technology policy, institutions and regulation Innovation processes and Innovation processes and dynamics of innovation & dynamics of innovation & innovation models innovation models R&D inputs and outputs of R&D inputs and outputs of companies companies R&D strategy and management R&D strategy and management in companies in companies Impacts of globalisation Impacts of globalisation Foresight of technological development Innovations and industrial renewal Emergence, diffusion, embedding, promotion, innovation environment Impact assessment of national & EU innovation policy Anticipatory technology assessment Impact assessment of regional innovation policy SFINNO data basis: SFINNO data basis: Maintenance, up-dating and Maintenance, up-dating and complementing complementing SFINNO based analyses on SFINNO based analyses on company, technology, company, technology, industrial branch, and macro industrial branch, and macro levels levels Rationale (strategy) and performance (efficiency, Rationale (strategy) and performance (efficiency, effectiveness) of innovation policy effectiveness) of innovation policy Co-operation of private and public partners, Co-operation of private and public partners, complementarity between public sector to private sector complementarity between public sector to private sector Conditions providing innovation policy Conditions providing innovation policy Innovation environments and innovation systems Innovation environments and innovation systems 1. National regional innovation policy 1. National regional innovation policy Regional innovation strategies and policies Regional innovation strategies and policies National entrepreneurship and employment programs National entrepreneurship and employment programs 2. International cross-border innovation policy 2. International cross-border innovation policy ERA plan of EU, regional innovation policy of EU, e.g. ESR ERA plan of EU, regional innovation policy of EU, e.g. ESR and innovation activities and innovation activities

7 What (technology) foresight is about.. Foresight may improve understanding of impacts of technologies and edge conditions support dialogue and strategic choices of alternative technological development paths promote networking of experts, different audiences, citizens contribute for future oriented insights and conditions for consensus support prioritization of R&D activities and R&D resource allocation many foresighted technologies have realised Complicated because.. technological change is inherently uncertain innovations relate to information asymmetries between present and future innovation process is not only influenced by future uncertainties but also generates uncertainties (Metcalfe 1995) Not mechanistic tool giving answers for future challenges, rather a tool to manage with future uncertainties in a systematic and diverse manner

8 What (technology) foresight is about.. in Europe often intended to reach consensus about promising technologies, related priority setting and policy measures in Japan not for building consensus, direct influence on technology policy and priority setting rather limited (e.g. Shimoda 2003) changingnow and in the future? context dependent national, regional, economic, social, cultural history dependent - past innovation pattern and related policy are indispensable elements for foresight of future innovation patterns regulation and socioeconomic problems matter, e.g. Kioto protocol gives relatively precise framework conditions for future energy sources, ageing gives requirements to technology development, etc. hence, foresight may be somewhat easier in areas of regulation, standardization etc. than in areas of free market demand => towards (societal) demand oriented innovation policy social, ethical, sustainability, responsibility aspects in the future?

9 Types of regulations and their impacts on innovation Source: Blind et al. 2004

10 Past, current and future in innovation research - towards integration? Innovation studies based on SFINNO database ( ex-post ) Impact assessment and evaluation studies (policies, programmes, institutions) on national and EU level EX POST POLICY EVALUATION Embedding ( rooting ) of innovations and technology assessment Impact assessment and evaluation studies Future oriented research Technology foresight ( ex-ante ) technology asessment Technology roadmaps Technology barometer FUTURE ORIENTED POLICY STUDIES... from past... to present... to foresight... outlining the future development path on a basis of integrated analysis of the past, current and future... t

11 Impact assessment: what we measure when SHORT TERM MID TERM LONG TERM ECONOMIC IMPACTS h Award/participant characteristics h R&D partnering h Acceleration of R&D h Innovative Technology Development - Patents - Publications - Competitive Advance - Prototype products & processes h Commercial Activity - New Products - New Processes - Licensing h Attraction of Capital h Strategic Alliances h Company Growth h Broad national economic benefits - Return on investment - Public - Private -Social - Inter Industry Diffusion - Increased GDP & tax base - Societal impacts Total Economic Benefits Benefits to Awardees Announce Competition or Complete Projects more years Announce Award Source: U.S. ATP Post-Project Period

12 Conclusions of Sevilla WS h RTD policies will be broadened to other policies h Participatory foresight

13 Some conclusions Challenges e.g. h Discontinuity? once in lifetime exercises vs, permanent platforms? h Past current future scheme in systemic policy making: foresight of rationale / strategy, implementation, evaluation and impact assessment, performance improvement => towards common learning of actors h Methodology: choices case by case according to goals and objectives of project/program; new combinations Impacts and benefits h indicators and measurement of (un)learning (cf. ESTO, ETEPS..) h From bottom-up culture towards more aware top down practices Promotion of benchmarking h Problems largely common benefits of benchmarking h Sufficient resources necessary condition for successful impacts (or to see whether there are impacts!) h What are most beneficial collaboration forms between national and European activities?

14 KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY BAROMETER Mika Naumanen Technology Studies VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland