Disasters. CRED, Louvain School of Medicine. Venice, 2011

Transcription

1 EMDAT and Trends in Natural Disasters Debarati Guha Sapir CRED, Louvain School of Medicine Brussels Venice, 2011

2 ARE DISASTERS INCREASING?

3 Is it a real increase? Natural disasters EM DAT created (1988) CRED created and OFDA began compiling (1973) OFDA created (1964) Source: EM DAT, OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database CRED Université i Catholique de Louvain Brussels Belgium Debby G. Sapir CRED

4 500 Trends in disasters rs mber of disaste Nu Earthquake, Volcano, Mass movement dry Climate related Source: EM DAT The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

5 SO ARE DISASTERS INCREASING? YES BUT..

6 Yes but.deaths are decreasing

7 Yes but geographic impacts are different Occurrence of disasters Victims/ pop.

8 Yes but.. economic impacts are different Damage costs (3-year moving average) Katrina Damage costs s (in $US Millio on) Kobe Low income Middle Income High Income

9 % SHAREOFCLIMATE RELATED RELATED DISASTERSOFTOTAL TOTAL EVENTS AFFECTED ECONOMIC LOSS

10 Climate related disasters *: what and where? TYPE REGION Drought Extreme temp. Flood Mass move. wet Storm 30% 4% 5% 6% 16% 4% 17% 24% Africa Americas Asia Europe Wildfire 6% 49% 39% Oceania *January-November Debarati Guha-Sapir

11 TOP 10 COUNTRIES MOST HIT BY NATURAL DISASTERS China P Rep 35 United States Indonesia, Philippines India Afghanistan Vietnam Australia, Burundi, Pakistan Ethiopia, Mexico, Romania Germany Bangladesh, Canada, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Russia, Somalia

12 1. We need to identify proximal determinants of extreme climate events. They will be actionable by poorer countries and will produce shorter term results

13 Floods in Purulia, W Bengal 2008

14 Determinants of increase in acute climate events POPULATION INCREASE (shanty towns in embankments - Rio) WEAK INFRA- STRUCTURES (floods and droughts) Climate disasters increasing Affected population increasing DEFORESTATION (Haiti) URBANIZATION (drainage & concretization - Rio) Debarati Guha-Sapir

15 DO TRENDS IN CLIMATE DISASTERS AND VICTIMS FOLLOW POPULATION GROWTH? ( ) WORLD Population Victims SOUTH EAST ASIA Population Victims Events Events Central America Population Northern Africa Population Victims Victims Events Events * Includes: flood, wet mass movements, storms, extreme temperature, drought and wild fires CRED, D.Guha Sapir, Geneva, Janu

16 2. More field evidence on extreme climate events and their impact on populations E.g. Effectson disease transmission and malnutrition

17 Figure 2. Mortality by age and gender (Tamil Nadu, Nd India) Source: Guha Sapir D., Parry L., Degomme O., Joshi P.C., Saulina Arnold J.P. (2006) Risks factors for mortality and injury : Post tsunami tsunami epidemiological findings from Tamil Nadu, CRED Working Paper, Brussels.

18 Leptospirosis p in Jakarta floods, 2008

19 SEVERE FLOODS AND DISEASES FECAL ORAL Diarrhea Cholera, Rotavirus Escherichia Coli Salmonella Shigella Campylobacter Non diarrheal diseases Typhoid/Paratyphoid fever Hepatitis A/E VECTOR BORNE Ml Malaria, Dengue/DHF West Nile Fever Chikungunya RODENT BORNE Hantavirus, Leptospirosis

20 THANK YOU

21 STRATOSPHERIC PROBLEMS NEED GRASSROOTS SOLUTIONS Effective adaptation requires better scientific evidence on how acute climate events concretely tl affect human populations p